Mitch
Crawled Through 5 FB Fields
With the excitement of the upcoming draft building---so is the suspense as to what BASK (my new acronym for the Arians/Keim team) are planning to accomplish with their full array of picks.
In listening to Arians---I don't think I can ever recall listening to a Cardinals' head coach who has such an emphatic player personnel philosophy or a more decisive plan.
It appears very clearly that Steve Keim is completely on board with Arians' philosophy---they appear molded in a common purpose and resolve.
One of the various terms that BA uses in conjunction with evaluating players is what he calls the "Wow Factor."
If I may digress for a minute, you might find this as curious and comical as I did. I was once on a date with a very attractive college admissions dean---we were both in our mid 30s at the time. She invited me to a party and asked me to pick her up. En route to the party she turned and asked me, "Do you think I am a "wow?"
What do you mean?"
She said, "You know---when you look at me, do you say 'wow'?"
"Um, yeah, of course, totally," I said, by now thinking how weird and 7th grade-ish her question was.
When we arrived at the party she was whooshed off by a couple of her friends and I was left to mingle among dozens of complete strangers.
After a couple of hours had passed...after managing to strike up some interesting conversations with a couple of the party guests, she found me and motioned me over into a corner of the room.
"What's up?" I asked.
"OK," she said, "I want you to look around the party and I would be very curious to know which woman in this room do you think is the biggest 'wow'."
"Seriously?"
"Yes, I'd be very curious to know," she reiterated.
I didn't even scan the crowd---I just peered over to the first woman I saw, a tall blonde who was easy to spot, and I said, pointing in her direction with terse eyes, "Her, the blond."
"We are leaving," she said. She looked irate.
"Right now," she said.
Within a matter of seconds we were back in my car and heading back to her apartment.
She didn't say a word the entire ride. She was just staring straight ahead, scowling the whole way.
When I was turning into her street, I wasn't sure whether to say anything---but I didn't have to, because as soon as I pulled up to her apartment she turned to me and yelled, "Any man who would pick HER as a WOW over me is a WASTE of my TIME."
Wham, she slammed the door.
What surprised me is that she called me a couple of days later---she wanted an answer as to why I picked the blonde. I told her that I thought the way in which she asked the question meant that I was to choose from all the other women in the room.
I also told her that having not seen her all night i thought she might have been wanting to fix me up with someone else.
"What?" she screamed. "You were MY date."
She said that she wouldn't hang up the phone until I admitted that she was the biggest WOW at the party."
All I can say is---wow!
As in---WOW, BUT...
So as BA scans the party of top prospects in this year's draft, here is what I imagine are his WOW and BUTS...
T Luke Joeckel: Wow, he does a great job in pass pro---But, can he get the kind of push in the running game I want?
T Eric Fisher: Wow, he dominated the one-on one-drills at the Senior Bowl---But, can he dominate as a run blocker, and can he handle speed rushers like Aldon Smith and Cliff Avril?
T Lane Johnson: Wow, he is very athletic and light on his feet---But, does he have the haunches I need my tackles to have?
T D.J. Fluker: Wow, now there's a physically dominant bookend who has the haunches I want to be able to open up my running game---But, can he pass protect versus the likes of Ahmad Brooks and Chris Long?
OLB/DE Ziggy Ansah: Wow, what an off the charts physical specimen---But, can he learn his position quickly enough to start and be a major factor on our defense?
OLB/DE Dion Jordan: Wow, what a fast and aggressive player at his length---But, can he stay healthy with that lean frame, and why were his numbers at Oregon so underwhelming?
OLB/DE Barkevious Mingo: Wow, what an amazingly fast first step, what an athlete---But, can he hold the edge in the NFL and be a consistent pressure rusher?
DE/OLB Bjeorn Werner: Wow, what a naturally strong pass rusher from the left side where we could use one---But, can he start at LOLB?
OLB Jarvis Jones: Wow, what stellar production the last two years in the nation's best college football conference, what tenacity and aggressiveness---But, does his spinal stenosis rule him out?
Note: I would have mentioned Jones' 4.9 40 time at his Pro Day, but BA said himself in the presser that he pays no attention to 40 times. All he cares about is how a player plays. Good stuff, coach.
DT Star Lotulelei: Wow, what an explosive force in the middle---But, is his medical situation a worry and why does his motor run cold at times?
DT Sharrif Floyd: Wow, what an active, high-motored player---But, why then did he only have 4.5 career sacks at Florida and how good of a fit is he in our defense?
DT/DE Sheldon Richardson: Wow, what a penetrator and all-out hustle player who chases the ball and the QB with a passion---But, is he big enough to flourish from the inside in the NFL, and can he start right away?
CB Dee Milliner: Wow, what a stellar athlete who mirrors WRs and breaks on the ball like a pro---But, are we missing out on addressing a more pressing need than CB?
WR Tavon Austin: Wow, what an electric and exceptionally versatile player---But---is he too small?
TE Tyler Eifert: Wow, what a natural pass catching TE who could thrive in our offense the way Heath Miller did---But, does his value at his position translate to a top 10 selection?
G Chance Warmack: Wow, what haunches on this stalwart, what power---But, are there guard prospects later in the draft we like for our system almost as much and is #7 too early to take a guard?
G Jonathan Cooper: Wow, what an athletic all-purpose guard---But, is he strong enough to hold his own versus NFL DTs right away?
My hunch:
Joeckel---no
Fisher---possibly
Johnson---no
Fluker---possibly
If they are choosing a tackle---the choice of preference?
Fluker.
The talk about Massie sliding down to guard is because he has the athleticism to be an effective guard in the offense, but in BA's mind may lack the requisite mauling ability to play RT. BA's guards have to be able to get out quickly on traps and be able to play with leverage and good angles on the interior blocking assignments. Therefore, i can see why they might feel he's a better fit at guard.
Moreover, and this is something i am getting the sense of the more I listen to BA, is that he is so confident in his blocking schemes, especially in his two TE formations, that he feels he will be able to compensate and adjust if either of his booked tackles needs help in pass pro. Plus it's also one of the major reasons why BA likes his RBs to be able to block. Nick Saban used a RB to Fluker's side when he felt Fluker may need help---hat's an option in BA's blocking protections as well.
I could also see BA draft G/T Brian Winters in the 3rd or 4th round. They recently had Winters in for a visit. Winters could play either RT or RG---he has the feet and the strength.
I think it's possible that BA could draft Fluker and Winters---but if BASK take a pass rusher at #7, Winters could very well be the player they want later on.
Ansah---possibly
Jordan---possibly
Mingo---possibly, but probably not
Werner---possibly, but probably not.
Jones---possibly
Jordan, most likely will be taken by the Jaguars at #2. Then, it's quite possible that Ansah could be taken by the Lions at #5.
I don't think BASK would have any problem with that because I believe the guy they really want is Jarvis Jones. When you hear BA and Tom Pratt talk about how much they stress hand strength in pass rushing techniques, and you look at Jarvis Jones' strengths, it is his hand strength and his ability to rip his way to the ball and to force the ball loose.
Jarvis Jones was the main reason why BASK and so many of the coaches went to Georgia's Pro Day. To hear BA in his presser dismiss 40 times in favor of recognizing game speed, it sounds like he is talking about Jarvis Jones.
Currently, the starter at the key ROLB spot is Lorenzo Alexander. I think the plan is to draft Jarvis Jones or Dion Jordan to start at ROLB, which would allow them to use Alexander in a versatile role at WILB and as a situational pass rusher.
Lotulelei---possibly, but probably not
Floyd---possibly, but probably not
Richardson---possibly, but probably not
I just don't see BASK looking at the DT position as one of the priorities at #7.
Milliner---possibly.
What makes me a little curious here is that SK keeps talking about the CBs in this draft---Cason is only on a one year deal, but Peterson, Powers, Fleming and Bethel are good to go for the next three years---and the hope is that Cason shines and they sign him to an extension during the season.
However, Milliner, not only would start at RCB right away, he could be a versatile player in the sub-packages where they would have the option to use him as one of the two deep safeties in the nickel.
If Jarvis Jones goes to the Browns at #6---I could see BASK deeming Milliner as BPA and taking him.
Austin---possibly, probably not
I think Austin will be taken by Chip Kelly at #4. So, if that is the case, the point is moot...unless...
But---I also think other teams that love Austin will make trade offers to move up to the Raiders' spot at #3. Those teams I believe are the 49ers and Falcons.
The Raiders---because of the Carson Palmer trade---do not have a 2nd rounder. Therefore, if the 49ers were to offer a bevy of picks that include the #31 and #34 picks, I think the Raiders, in light of their housecleaning and all of their imminent needs, could be very tempted to take that offer.
The Falcons, as we know, think they are one or two players away from a ring. We also know that they have a willingness to give up a king's ransom for a player they like. Therefore, I could see them offer their #30, #60, #92 and #127 picks (they have a supplemental 4th rounder at #133) for the opportunity to move up to #3.
Given the choice I think the Raiders would keep the trade among Bay area teams and accept the 49ers' offer....just as many picks but higher picks than what the Falcons can offer.
Now---if the Cardinals were interested in moving up to #3, they could have an advantage in a trade offer because the Raiders would still have a top seven pick to work with and all their preparation at the top of the draft would not go for naught.
I could see a scenario where the Cardinals trade the #7 and flip the #38 pick with the Raiders' #66. That would give the Raiders the early 2nd round pick they want.
It could work for the Cardinals in that this draft is 4-5 rounds deep enough at the positions they need so that they still could take, for example, G/T Brian Winters at #66 (or Travis Frederick, David Quessenberry, Brian Schwenke) and OLB/DE John Simon (or Corey Lemonier, Sio Moore, Sam Montgomery, Jamie Collins, Brandon Jenkins) at #69.
Doubtful this would happen, but you never know.
Would BASK be that interested in Tavon Austin?
I have a feeling that taking Austin would be right in line with the way BA coaches offense---pedal to the metal, and go for the jugular---no holding back.
I also think that it was no fluke that the day Carson Palmer signed with the Cardinals, Steve Keim was watching extensive tape of Tavon Austin and was gushing about what he saw to Doug and Wolf on the airwaves.
Tyler Eifert---no, not unless the Cardinals trade down to the second half of the first round, then it could be quite possible. Best TE in the draft.
Chance Warmack---possibly
Jonathan Cooper---possibly
I just don't get the feeling that BASK is going to draft one of the guards at #7. I think the signing of Chilo Rachal and the recent interest in Brian Winters, either to play RT and switch Massie inside, or to come right in and start at RG, are signs that the Cardinals really want to address another position at #7.
If the Cardinals trade down from #7---then I think the guards are in play. If they stay put---no.
To me there are five WOW top 10 players in this draft:
1. Tavon Austin. Everything about him is a WOW to me. His electrifying speed, his unique elusiveness, his quite swag, his leadership and his sheer competitiveness---he wants to win and wants to be the best at what he does. This is a "Li'l Larry" if you ask me. And I don't think his size is a problem at all, because of his elite body control and how smart he is about avoiding contact. Didn't mis one game or even one practice in 4 years at WVU.
2. Ziggy Ansah. Off the charts athleticism for the position. When you are in a division where you have to chase down Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson for the next three years and beyond, to have an edge player who can track them down in a flash is ideal. Having a coach like Tom Pratt abates the concern about his inexperience. If anything, I think it's an advantage because Ziggy hasn't played long enough to develop bad habits. Learning the right techniques from an ace teacher is ideal.
3. Jarvis Jones. Terrell Suggs, part deux. Forget the 40 time. Pop in the tape. His production is outstanding, at a position we haven't properly addressed or even drafted for ever since we switched to the 34. Can you believe that? Our highest pick was Cody Brown, and we know how that turned out. We are a 34 and we have ignored one of the most key positions. Bertrand Berry couldn't play 34OLB, he was a situational rusher. But, he's a close as we've come, and his days seem like a long time ago, don't they?
4. Dee Milliner. Everything you want in a CB---size, speed, hips, smarts, toughness, competitiveness. A CB tandem of him and PP21---now that would be a WOW.
5. Dion Jordan. He is such a tremendous athlete, just on his cover and chase skills alone. As he gets stronger, he could become a prolific pass rusher as well. His routes this year were too round and wide, because he needs better strength on contact and stronger hand techniques.
When all is said and done---I think one of these 5 is the pick.
In listening to Arians---I don't think I can ever recall listening to a Cardinals' head coach who has such an emphatic player personnel philosophy or a more decisive plan.
It appears very clearly that Steve Keim is completely on board with Arians' philosophy---they appear molded in a common purpose and resolve.
One of the various terms that BA uses in conjunction with evaluating players is what he calls the "Wow Factor."
If I may digress for a minute, you might find this as curious and comical as I did. I was once on a date with a very attractive college admissions dean---we were both in our mid 30s at the time. She invited me to a party and asked me to pick her up. En route to the party she turned and asked me, "Do you think I am a "wow?"
What do you mean?"
She said, "You know---when you look at me, do you say 'wow'?"
"Um, yeah, of course, totally," I said, by now thinking how weird and 7th grade-ish her question was.
When we arrived at the party she was whooshed off by a couple of her friends and I was left to mingle among dozens of complete strangers.
After a couple of hours had passed...after managing to strike up some interesting conversations with a couple of the party guests, she found me and motioned me over into a corner of the room.
"What's up?" I asked.
"OK," she said, "I want you to look around the party and I would be very curious to know which woman in this room do you think is the biggest 'wow'."
"Seriously?"
"Yes, I'd be very curious to know," she reiterated.
I didn't even scan the crowd---I just peered over to the first woman I saw, a tall blonde who was easy to spot, and I said, pointing in her direction with terse eyes, "Her, the blond."
"We are leaving," she said. She looked irate.
"Right now," she said.
Within a matter of seconds we were back in my car and heading back to her apartment.
She didn't say a word the entire ride. She was just staring straight ahead, scowling the whole way.
When I was turning into her street, I wasn't sure whether to say anything---but I didn't have to, because as soon as I pulled up to her apartment she turned to me and yelled, "Any man who would pick HER as a WOW over me is a WASTE of my TIME."
Wham, she slammed the door.
What surprised me is that she called me a couple of days later---she wanted an answer as to why I picked the blonde. I told her that I thought the way in which she asked the question meant that I was to choose from all the other women in the room.
I also told her that having not seen her all night i thought she might have been wanting to fix me up with someone else.
"What?" she screamed. "You were MY date."
She said that she wouldn't hang up the phone until I admitted that she was the biggest WOW at the party."
All I can say is---wow!
As in---WOW, BUT...
So as BA scans the party of top prospects in this year's draft, here is what I imagine are his WOW and BUTS...
T Luke Joeckel: Wow, he does a great job in pass pro---But, can he get the kind of push in the running game I want?
T Eric Fisher: Wow, he dominated the one-on one-drills at the Senior Bowl---But, can he dominate as a run blocker, and can he handle speed rushers like Aldon Smith and Cliff Avril?
T Lane Johnson: Wow, he is very athletic and light on his feet---But, does he have the haunches I need my tackles to have?
T D.J. Fluker: Wow, now there's a physically dominant bookend who has the haunches I want to be able to open up my running game---But, can he pass protect versus the likes of Ahmad Brooks and Chris Long?
OLB/DE Ziggy Ansah: Wow, what an off the charts physical specimen---But, can he learn his position quickly enough to start and be a major factor on our defense?
OLB/DE Dion Jordan: Wow, what a fast and aggressive player at his length---But, can he stay healthy with that lean frame, and why were his numbers at Oregon so underwhelming?
OLB/DE Barkevious Mingo: Wow, what an amazingly fast first step, what an athlete---But, can he hold the edge in the NFL and be a consistent pressure rusher?
DE/OLB Bjeorn Werner: Wow, what a naturally strong pass rusher from the left side where we could use one---But, can he start at LOLB?
OLB Jarvis Jones: Wow, what stellar production the last two years in the nation's best college football conference, what tenacity and aggressiveness---But, does his spinal stenosis rule him out?
Note: I would have mentioned Jones' 4.9 40 time at his Pro Day, but BA said himself in the presser that he pays no attention to 40 times. All he cares about is how a player plays. Good stuff, coach.
DT Star Lotulelei: Wow, what an explosive force in the middle---But, is his medical situation a worry and why does his motor run cold at times?
DT Sharrif Floyd: Wow, what an active, high-motored player---But, why then did he only have 4.5 career sacks at Florida and how good of a fit is he in our defense?
DT/DE Sheldon Richardson: Wow, what a penetrator and all-out hustle player who chases the ball and the QB with a passion---But, is he big enough to flourish from the inside in the NFL, and can he start right away?
CB Dee Milliner: Wow, what a stellar athlete who mirrors WRs and breaks on the ball like a pro---But, are we missing out on addressing a more pressing need than CB?
WR Tavon Austin: Wow, what an electric and exceptionally versatile player---But---is he too small?
TE Tyler Eifert: Wow, what a natural pass catching TE who could thrive in our offense the way Heath Miller did---But, does his value at his position translate to a top 10 selection?
G Chance Warmack: Wow, what haunches on this stalwart, what power---But, are there guard prospects later in the draft we like for our system almost as much and is #7 too early to take a guard?
G Jonathan Cooper: Wow, what an athletic all-purpose guard---But, is he strong enough to hold his own versus NFL DTs right away?
My hunch:
Joeckel---no
Fisher---possibly
Johnson---no
Fluker---possibly
If they are choosing a tackle---the choice of preference?
Fluker.
The talk about Massie sliding down to guard is because he has the athleticism to be an effective guard in the offense, but in BA's mind may lack the requisite mauling ability to play RT. BA's guards have to be able to get out quickly on traps and be able to play with leverage and good angles on the interior blocking assignments. Therefore, i can see why they might feel he's a better fit at guard.
Moreover, and this is something i am getting the sense of the more I listen to BA, is that he is so confident in his blocking schemes, especially in his two TE formations, that he feels he will be able to compensate and adjust if either of his booked tackles needs help in pass pro. Plus it's also one of the major reasons why BA likes his RBs to be able to block. Nick Saban used a RB to Fluker's side when he felt Fluker may need help---hat's an option in BA's blocking protections as well.
I could also see BA draft G/T Brian Winters in the 3rd or 4th round. They recently had Winters in for a visit. Winters could play either RT or RG---he has the feet and the strength.
I think it's possible that BA could draft Fluker and Winters---but if BASK take a pass rusher at #7, Winters could very well be the player they want later on.
Ansah---possibly
Jordan---possibly
Mingo---possibly, but probably not
Werner---possibly, but probably not.
Jones---possibly
Jordan, most likely will be taken by the Jaguars at #2. Then, it's quite possible that Ansah could be taken by the Lions at #5.
I don't think BASK would have any problem with that because I believe the guy they really want is Jarvis Jones. When you hear BA and Tom Pratt talk about how much they stress hand strength in pass rushing techniques, and you look at Jarvis Jones' strengths, it is his hand strength and his ability to rip his way to the ball and to force the ball loose.
Jarvis Jones was the main reason why BASK and so many of the coaches went to Georgia's Pro Day. To hear BA in his presser dismiss 40 times in favor of recognizing game speed, it sounds like he is talking about Jarvis Jones.
Currently, the starter at the key ROLB spot is Lorenzo Alexander. I think the plan is to draft Jarvis Jones or Dion Jordan to start at ROLB, which would allow them to use Alexander in a versatile role at WILB and as a situational pass rusher.
Lotulelei---possibly, but probably not
Floyd---possibly, but probably not
Richardson---possibly, but probably not
I just don't see BASK looking at the DT position as one of the priorities at #7.
Milliner---possibly.
What makes me a little curious here is that SK keeps talking about the CBs in this draft---Cason is only on a one year deal, but Peterson, Powers, Fleming and Bethel are good to go for the next three years---and the hope is that Cason shines and they sign him to an extension during the season.
However, Milliner, not only would start at RCB right away, he could be a versatile player in the sub-packages where they would have the option to use him as one of the two deep safeties in the nickel.
If Jarvis Jones goes to the Browns at #6---I could see BASK deeming Milliner as BPA and taking him.
Austin---possibly, probably not
I think Austin will be taken by Chip Kelly at #4. So, if that is the case, the point is moot...unless...
But---I also think other teams that love Austin will make trade offers to move up to the Raiders' spot at #3. Those teams I believe are the 49ers and Falcons.
The Raiders---because of the Carson Palmer trade---do not have a 2nd rounder. Therefore, if the 49ers were to offer a bevy of picks that include the #31 and #34 picks, I think the Raiders, in light of their housecleaning and all of their imminent needs, could be very tempted to take that offer.
The Falcons, as we know, think they are one or two players away from a ring. We also know that they have a willingness to give up a king's ransom for a player they like. Therefore, I could see them offer their #30, #60, #92 and #127 picks (they have a supplemental 4th rounder at #133) for the opportunity to move up to #3.
Given the choice I think the Raiders would keep the trade among Bay area teams and accept the 49ers' offer....just as many picks but higher picks than what the Falcons can offer.
Now---if the Cardinals were interested in moving up to #3, they could have an advantage in a trade offer because the Raiders would still have a top seven pick to work with and all their preparation at the top of the draft would not go for naught.
I could see a scenario where the Cardinals trade the #7 and flip the #38 pick with the Raiders' #66. That would give the Raiders the early 2nd round pick they want.
It could work for the Cardinals in that this draft is 4-5 rounds deep enough at the positions they need so that they still could take, for example, G/T Brian Winters at #66 (or Travis Frederick, David Quessenberry, Brian Schwenke) and OLB/DE John Simon (or Corey Lemonier, Sio Moore, Sam Montgomery, Jamie Collins, Brandon Jenkins) at #69.
Doubtful this would happen, but you never know.
Would BASK be that interested in Tavon Austin?
I have a feeling that taking Austin would be right in line with the way BA coaches offense---pedal to the metal, and go for the jugular---no holding back.
I also think that it was no fluke that the day Carson Palmer signed with the Cardinals, Steve Keim was watching extensive tape of Tavon Austin and was gushing about what he saw to Doug and Wolf on the airwaves.
Tyler Eifert---no, not unless the Cardinals trade down to the second half of the first round, then it could be quite possible. Best TE in the draft.
Chance Warmack---possibly
Jonathan Cooper---possibly
I just don't get the feeling that BASK is going to draft one of the guards at #7. I think the signing of Chilo Rachal and the recent interest in Brian Winters, either to play RT and switch Massie inside, or to come right in and start at RG, are signs that the Cardinals really want to address another position at #7.
If the Cardinals trade down from #7---then I think the guards are in play. If they stay put---no.
To me there are five WOW top 10 players in this draft:
1. Tavon Austin. Everything about him is a WOW to me. His electrifying speed, his unique elusiveness, his quite swag, his leadership and his sheer competitiveness---he wants to win and wants to be the best at what he does. This is a "Li'l Larry" if you ask me. And I don't think his size is a problem at all, because of his elite body control and how smart he is about avoiding contact. Didn't mis one game or even one practice in 4 years at WVU.
2. Ziggy Ansah. Off the charts athleticism for the position. When you are in a division where you have to chase down Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson for the next three years and beyond, to have an edge player who can track them down in a flash is ideal. Having a coach like Tom Pratt abates the concern about his inexperience. If anything, I think it's an advantage because Ziggy hasn't played long enough to develop bad habits. Learning the right techniques from an ace teacher is ideal.
3. Jarvis Jones. Terrell Suggs, part deux. Forget the 40 time. Pop in the tape. His production is outstanding, at a position we haven't properly addressed or even drafted for ever since we switched to the 34. Can you believe that? Our highest pick was Cody Brown, and we know how that turned out. We are a 34 and we have ignored one of the most key positions. Bertrand Berry couldn't play 34OLB, he was a situational rusher. But, he's a close as we've come, and his days seem like a long time ago, don't they?
4. Dee Milliner. Everything you want in a CB---size, speed, hips, smarts, toughness, competitiveness. A CB tandem of him and PP21---now that would be a WOW.
5. Dion Jordan. He is such a tremendous athlete, just on his cover and chase skills alone. As he gets stronger, he could become a prolific pass rusher as well. His routes this year were too round and wide, because he needs better strength on contact and stronger hand techniques.
When all is said and done---I think one of these 5 is the pick.
