Beware of Buying Frenzies

[George O'Brien]

We won't know the exact deals on some of the free agents until they become official on the 15th (or which ever day it is), but it seems like the deals guys are getting this summer are awfully high.

The money for Speedy Claxton and Bobby Jackson is ridiculous for career backups. Ben Wallace is a great defender, but $60 million for 5 years is awfully rich for a guy with limited offensive skills.

If anything, it is likely to get worse. There are a lot of RFA's like Wilcox and Ely that have had so so careers who will get ful MLE's simply because VRad and TT did.

We see frenzies like this every few years followed by teams trying to unload their mistakes a few years later. Kenyon Martin is a classic example of a good player who got superstar money and is now being heavily shopped. Chandler is another guy being heaily shopped due to an excessive contract.

Last year the Suns were smart in grabbing Bell before the frenzy started. This year no one was going to let the Suns do that. It's frustrating, but easier to avoid getting a bad contract to begin with than unloading it later.

 

[Mainstreet]

I don't think the Suns will have this problem.

 

[joshstmarie]

well they better frenzy all over boris diaw.

 

[Mainstreet]

well they better frenzy all over boris diaw.

Agreed.

I'm also thinking that the Suns should extend Barbosa's contract as well if anywhere within reason.

The prices just seem to be going up every year.

 

[Mainstreet]

Okay, nothing is happening. The Knicks have tons of money and tons of players plus bad management.

Theoretically there should be a way the Suns could do a deal with them if there are any players of interest.

The silence on the Suns front is deafening. Are the Suns working on a deal or just waiting for leftovers?

 

[George O'Brien]

Agreed.

I'm also thinking that the Suns should extend Barbosa's contract as well if anywhere within reason.

The prices just seem to be going up every year.

I'd rather put money into these guys than on free agents that won't play. My guess is that the Suns will sign Diaw and wait out Leandro. There is a real risk Boris could be ultra hot next summer.

By contrast, while Leandro is a great prospect, I can't see anyone offering him more than MLE money which the Suns can simply match. He's not like JJ who was clearly worth more than MLE the season before.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'd rather put money into these guys than on free agents that won't play. My guess is that the Suns will sign Diaw and wait out Leandro. There is a real risk Boris could be ultra hot next summer.

By contrast, while Leandro is a great prospect, I can't see anyone offering him more than MLE money which the Suns can simply match. He's not like JJ who was clearly worth more than MLE the season before.

We agree on Diaw. However, D'Antoni is high on LB. I'm beginning to worry a little about D'Antoni as a GM but not as a coach or evaluator of talent.

The Suns need to extend LB if at all possible this summer unless the Suns can improve themselves via trade using LB. However, I just do not see D'Antoni trading him at the present time. I can see LB would attract a lot of money on the market even this year.

 

[George O'Brien]

We agree on Diaw. However, D'Antoni is high on LB. I'm beginning to worry a little about D'Antoni as a GM but not as a coach or evaluator of talent.

The Suns need to extend LB if at all possible this summer unless the Suns can improve themselves via trade using LB. However, I just do not see D'Antoni trading him at the present time. I can see LB would attract a lot of money on the market even this year.

Is there a chance Leandro will get an above the MLE offer next summer? Sure. Is it likely? Probably not.

An MLE deal starts at $5 million. If my math is right, this means the most the typcial MLE team can offer is $30 million over 5 years.

1 $5.00
2 $5.50
3 $6.00
4 $6.50
5 $7.00
-----------------
$30.00 for an average of $6 million

I'd be relucant to go any higher than that this summer. If he is substantially more valuable than that next summer, a sign and trade is still and option since the Suns have the right to match any offer.

 

[Joe Mama]

I'd rather put money into these guys than on free agents that won't play. My guess is that the Suns will sign Diaw and wait out Leandro. There is a real risk Boris could be ultra hot next summer.

By contrast, while Leandro is a great prospect, I can't see anyone offering him more than MLE money which the Suns can simply match. He's not like JJ who was clearly worth more than MLE the season before.

all Barbosa has to do is have another year like this one, and some stupid team out there will give him $40 million or more. I'm not sure how much I would give him this summer, but it wouldn't break my heart if he becomes a restricted free agent next summer.

Joe

 

[NastyOne]

all Barbosa has to do is have another year like this one, and some stupid team out there will give him $40 million or more. I'm not sure how much I would give him this summer, but it wouldn't break my heart if he becomes a restricted free agent next summer.

Joe

Look what Speedy Claxton and Bobby Jackson got, and he will get a bigger contract than both.

And its safe to assume Leo will improve his numbers next season, so someone will give him a big contract with promises of starting for them.

 

[George O'Brien]

Look what Speedy Claxton and Bobby Jackson got, and he will get a bigger contract than both.

And its safe to assume Leo will improve his numbers next season, so someone will give him a big contract with promises of starting for them.

There is a HUGE difference. Claxton and Jackson were UNRESTRICTED free agents. Barbosa is going to be RESTRICTED free agent. That means the Suns can match any offer and if outrageous do a sign and trade.

I haven't kept count, but so far VRad is the only RFA that has moved this summer. Teams with cap space prefer to focus on unrestricted free agents because they don't get taken out of the game for up to 15 days waiting for the original team to decide if they are going to match.

As a rule, teams with a lot of cap space end up burning through it before chasing RFA's. This is why most of them get MLE at most.

There are obvious exceptions, but the right to match leads to sign and trade deals rather than just ignoring the player. Now that the Clippers have decided to become a basketball team, there is no team that routinely lets their RFA's walk without compensation. Also, by no coincidence the two most famous were K Mart and JJ, which lead to massive overpayment along with being forced to trade valuable assets.

I'm not inclined to risk it with Boris, but IMHO Leandro is just not going to be worth the battle for most teams.

 

[Nash]

I think Leandro will be quite sought after by other teams next year. I don't think he will be worth anymore than the MLE though. Hope he has the good sense to realize how good he has it here, what with Dan working on his game personally.

IMO he won't be too effective in other teams. This system is very well suited to Barbosa and most importantly , D'Antoni likes Barbosa and this is easily the best situation he can get into. Hope atleast he has the good sense to look at what is best for his career since he's still young and will have the best chance to hit his peak here. Barbosa: please have a talk with Manu about the tradeoff between money and the best team for you.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think Leandro will be quite sought after by other teams next year. I don't think he will be worth anymore than the MLE though. Hope he has the good sense to realize how good he has it here, what with Dan working on his game personally.

IMO he won't be too effective in other teams. This system is very well suited to Barbosa and most importantly , D'Antoni likes Barbosa and this is easily the best situation he can get into. Hope atleast he has the good sense to look at what is best for his career since he's still young and will have the best chance to hit his peak here. Barbosa: please have a talk with Manu about the tradeoff between money and the best team for you.

No way Barbosa is worth 5 million per year. The only reason I think Diaw might be is because he backs up so many positions on the floor. If we have to chose between Diaw and Barbosa next year, I take Diaw.

 

[cepstrum]

No way Barbosa is worth 5 million per year. The only reason I think Diaw might be is because he backs up so many positions on the floor. If we have to chose between Diaw and Barbosa next year, I take Diaw.

Going by the contracts that players have been the last couple of years, Diaw is worth AT LEAST 10 mill per year. If Peja and Nene can get contracts that average 10 mill, so can Diaw.

 

[cly2tw]

If LB reasonably were to expect the MLE at most next year, for security, fear of injury etc, he'd be wise to take an extension starting at 4.5m or even just 4m. In particular, if we did end up getting a decent backup PG or SG via trade later, his PT might drop which'd hurt his FA value.

 

[Covert Rain]

Going by the contracts that players have been the last couple of years, Diaw is worth AT LEAST 10 mill per year. If Peja and Nene can get contracts that average 10 mill, so can Diaw.

For one thing those other guys have been getting it done longer then Diaw. Second there are many that think Diaw is a product of the system like so many other players.

That doesn't mean that no team will be dumb enough to sign him for that much but I don't think he is worth that much. The Suns might have to let him go if he is going to command 10 Million a year and then Barbosa the full 5 million dollare MLE. I don't see how they could do both.

Even if you get rid of Marion (which would be dumb), his entire contract only clears up another 5 million dollar MLE.

 

[George O'Brien]

For one thing those other guys have been getting it done longer then Diaw. Second there are many that think Diaw is a product of the system like so many other players.

That doesn't mean that no team will be dumb enough to sign him for that much but I don't think he is worth that much. The Suns might have to let him go if he is going to command 10 Million a year and then Barbosa the full 5 million dollare MLE. I don't see how they could do both.

Even if you get rid of Marion (which would be dumb), his entire contract only clears up another 5 million dollar MLE.

We don't know what Diaw will try to get. $50 over six would be about the best I think the Suns can expect without risking a brusing RFA situation.

 

[jandaman]

I think Sarver and D'Antoni will offer Diaw $35 Million for 5 years... intially anyways.

 

[cly2tw]

We don't know what Diaw will try to get. $50 over six would be about the best I think the Suns can expect without risking a brusing RFA situation.

The extension is only for 5 years! And Prince's 45m/5y seems reasonable for Diaw too, which was what we offered JJ then.

 

[Joe Mama]

I think the Boris Diaw will get at least $50 million over 5 years, and Barbosa is not going to settle for the mid-level exception.

Joe

 

[Amare32]

I think Sarver and D'Antoni will offer Diaw $35 Million for 5 years... intially anyways.

and Boris's agent will laugh in their faces..

 

[NastyOne]

I think the Boris Diaw will get at least $50 million over 5 years, and Barbosa is not going to settle for the mid-level exception.

Joe

That is exactly how i see it.

Diaw will command atleast $8-10Mil per and Barbosa will want more than the MLE, probably something between $5-7Mil Per.

You guys are really fooling yourselves if you think Leo will resign for less than $5mil per.

And hes worth it imo, Cause hes very close to breaking out bigtime and becoming one of the better scoring guards in the league.

Offer Diaw $48Mil 5years & Barbosa $28Mil 4years

Make it fit by trading Shawn Marion & Kurt Thomas during next years offseason.

 

[Bada0Bing]

I’m one of the few left that agrees with what the Suns are doing with not signing anyone to these “ridiculous” contracts. I think they’re sitting back and waiting to see what falls through the cracks. I hope they don’t sign anyone for more than the Vet Min for 1 year.

I think they have a plan to resign Diaw for whatever it costs. Until I see Diaw walk, I have no problem with what the Suns are doing. Barbosa would be nice to have back, but only at the right price. As long as the Suns don’t jump into the mix in this ridiculous bidding process for “filler” players, I don’t see a problem with resigning Diaw.

 

[Joe Mama]

That is exactly how i see it.

Diaw will command atleast $8-10Mil per and Barbosa will want more than the MLE, probably something between $5-7Mil Per.

You guys are really fooling yourselves if you think Leo will resign for less than $5mil per.

And hes worth it imo, Cause hes very close to breaking out bigtime and becoming one of the better scoring guards in the league.

Offer Diaw $48Mil 5years & Barbosa $28Mil 4years

Make it fit by trading Shawn Marion & Kurt Thomas during next years offseason.

at this point I figure Boris Diaw will get a contract averaging $10 million per season or more, and Barbosa will get an average of $7 million per season. It might happen this summer. It might be next.

Btw I wouldn't give Barbosa a contract averaging over $5-6 million this summer. I would pay Boris Diaw the $10 million.

Joe

 

[George O'Brien]

How many teams are going to be under the cap next summer? Typically the average is about four or five. These are the only teams that offer more than the MLE.

If Mohamed only got an MLE and he's a quality center, how can Barbosa expect $2 or $3 million more than Mohamad once he's an RFA? Ignore the unresticted market and focus on what RFA's are being offered.

Boris is a different story. I can see a team with Cap space being willing to go over the MLE. I'm not convinced Leandro will draw the same intense attention and I really like him.