Bickley: Suns stuck in NBA quicksand with no easy fixes

[Mainstreet]

Why? If we didn't already have Warren, he'd be at the top of my list. If you go BPA, he's not a bad choice for anyone outside the top 6 or so spots.

There appears to be some quality big men in this draft with potential. The Suns need to go PF/C in this draft if the quality is there. In the last draft the Suns went for T.J. Warren, Tyler Ennis and Bogdan Bogdanovic They can't keep ignoring big men. The Suns would have been in much better shape if they had drafted Jusuf Nurkic. I put Dekker in a tweener type category. In any regard, the Suns cannot take the chance with Warren on the roster playing the same SF position.

 

[mojorizen7]

Bickley tells it like it is. Always has. It's not homer journalism, nor is it pot shot negativity.

 

[Catlover]

I don't think Sam Dekker will do anything in the NBA. If anyone in the draft absolutely screams "BUST!" its him. He was a below average shooter from the college 3, he lacks the strength to play inside, fast wing players are going to eat him alive, he isn't a good ball handler. I don't see a single potential "plus" skill he will possess in the NBA.

He went from off the radar to a potential lotto pick based on a few games in the tournament. Sometimes that has merit, but Dekker isn't some kid from a small school who didn't get a chance to showcase his talents. He was a 3 year player in a major program, there is a big sample size that says he is not an NBA player.

There appears to be some quality big men in this draft with potential. The Suns need to go PF/C in this draft if the quality is there. In the last draft the Suns went for T.J. Warren, Tyler Ennis and Bogdan Bogdanovic They can't keep ignoring big men. The Suns would have been in much better shape if they had drafted Jusuf Nurkic. I put Dekker in a tweener type category. In any regard, the Suns cannot take the chance with Warren on the roster playing the same SF position.

We so need to improve at the 4 and the 5 but Dekker looks like a solid NBA prospect to me. But I don't have a great record at projecting players from one level to the next so I'll probably be fine with any decision other than drafting a point guard or selling the pick.

 

[mojorizen7]

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nba/suns/2015/06/04/bickley-phoenix-suns-jeff-hornacek-cardinals-nba/28509215/

"It can be challenging to build through the middle," Ryan McDonough said. "But it's something we've studied, and something that can be done. There is a blueprint, and the Houston Rockets come to mind. They did a great job of staying competitive while looking for a star player, and suddenly, James Harden becomes available. That's what we're trying to do. That's how we're positioning ourselves."

So they're in No Man's Land on purpose, and waiting for the opportunity to bring in a superstar via FA. Got it.

I'm done with this NBA ****show. I'll be in the movies forum if anyone wants to see me again. Goodnight and good luck.
[sigh]

 

[Sunburn]

It's McD's plan, not Jeff's.
I don't think he is a good coach, but let's not blame his for McD's stubbornness. If my boss gave me a bag of crap and told me to make roses out of it, I'd suck at my job too.

I agree. Jeff might have some say in personnel but I think it's mainly McD's show. The 2 point guard thing is all McD imo. Jeff is trying to make it work because that's what his boss expects of him.

 

[Phrazbit]

http://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...ix-suns-jeff-hornacek-cardinals-nba/28509215/

So they're in No Man's Land on purpose, and waiting for the opportunity to bring in a superstar via FA. Got it.

I'm done with this NBA ****show. I'll be in the movies forum if anyone wants to see me again. Goodnight and good luck.
[sigh]

They're here because its where they are. They were going to build from the cellar but the 2013/14 team ended up being WAY better than expected, following that season it made zero sense to blow up a young team that just won 48 games.

 

[Covert Rain]

http://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...ix-suns-jeff-hornacek-cardinals-nba/28509215/

So they're in No Man's Land on purpose, and waiting for the opportunity to bring in a superstar via FA. Got it.

I'm done with this NBA ****show. I'll be in the movies forum if anyone wants to see me again. Goodnight and good luck.
[sigh]

You know what kills me about this? Yes it can be done but it's like sort of winning the lottery no? There are about 24 other teams each playing the exact same game. He brought up one example.

Says volumes about this guy.

 

[SO91]

You know what kills me about this? Yes it can be done but it's like sort of winning the lottery no? There are about 24 other teams each playing the exact same game. He brought up one example.

Says volumes about this guy.

Building from the bottom hasn't exactly been a proven thing either though. Yes a #1 pick, in the right draft will land you a great player (AD), or it could get you Anthony Bennett. The Sixers have been tanking for 2 seasons and have nothing to show for it. ATL didn't exactly bottom out completely and came out of nowhere to have a great season. Indiana made 3 straight East finals without tanking prior to that.
Edit: The Knicks just had their worst season, 2nd worst record in the league, and got stuck with the 4th pick in a draft with 2 good looking big men.

 

[overseascardfan]

Building from the bottom hasn't exactly been a proven thing either though. Yes a #1 pick, in the right draft will land you a great player (AD), or it could get you Anthony Bennett. The Sixers have been tanking for 2 seasons and have nothing to show for it. ATL didn't exactly bottom out completely and came out of nowhere to have a great season. Indiana made 3 straight East finals without tanking prior to that.
Edit: The Knicks just had their worst season, 2nd worst record in the league, and got stuck with the 4th pick in a draft with 2 good looking big men.

I agree with your point about picking in Top 5 isn't a guarantee to become a contender but it does give you the best chance if you hit on your picks.

ATL had some good pieces in Horford and Teague and landed Millsap in FA who was a great addition and they acquired excellent compliment pieces in Korver, Schroeder, Carroll, etc. ATL doesn't have a star player on their roster but had 4 players on the AS team, more than any other team including CLE & GS. Again, that just shows the disparity between the Eastern & Western conference competition.

 

[Catlover]

I agree with your point about picking in Top 5 isn't a guarantee to become a contender but it does give you the best chance if you hit on your picks.

ATL had some good pieces in Horford and Teague and landed Millsap in FA who was a great addition and they acquired excellent compliment pieces in Korver, Schroeder, Carroll, etc. ATL doesn't have a star player on their roster but had 4 players on the AS team, more than any other team including CLE & GS. Again, that just shows the disparity between the Eastern & Western conference competition.

The key is hitting on your picks regardless of slot. Clearly, drafting in the top 5 increases your likelihood of landing a quality player but I don't believe the facts support the idea that it increases your chances to win it all. Unless you get that top 5 pick when a generational player becomes available.

 

[SO91]

I agree with your point about picking in Top 5 isn't a guarantee to become a contender but it does give you the best chance if you hit on your picks.

ATL had some good pieces in Horford and Teague and landed Millsap in FA who was a great addition and they acquired excellent compliment pieces in Korver, Schroeder, Carroll, etc. ATL doesn't have a star player on their roster but had 4 players on the AS team, more than any other team including CLE & GS. Again, that just shows the disparity between the Eastern & Western conference competition.

That's the point about ATL. They were building through the middle without a true superstar. They never bottomed out after having Joe, Josh and Al. They had a couple of nice pieces and got the right parts to compliment them. In a year or 2 maybe they get lucky and either pick up a FA or trade for someone that makes them better.

This team had a feel-good season with young talent that showed promise. They had/have a couple of nice pieces to try to build around and continue to show improvement. Blowing that up in the hopes of landing one of the top 2 picks would have been madness. Anyway the franchise chooses to build a competitive team will be difficult. They'll have to make good choices, hit on their picks (wherever they land) but mostly they'll have to have some luck.

 

[Covert Rain]

Building from the bottom hasn't exactly been a proven thing either though. Yes a #1 pick, in the right draft will land you a great player (AD), or it could get you Anthony Bennett. The Sixers have been tanking for 2 seasons and have nothing to show for it. ATL didn't exactly bottom out completely and came out of nowhere to have a great season. Indiana made 3 straight East finals without tanking prior to that.
Edit: The Knicks just had their worst season, 2nd worst record in the league, and got stuck with the 4th pick in a draft with 2 good looking big men.

How many teams that won NBA titles in the past 30 years have drafted the Superstar that eventually won them an NBA title? Now compare that to how many teams built through mediocre picks and traded for an NBA Superstar that led them to the title.

 

[SO91]

How many teams that won NBA titles in the past 30 years have drafted the Superstar that eventually won them an NBA title? Now compare that to how many teams built through mediocre picks and traded for an NBA Superstar that led them to the title.

The Spurs and Lakers come to mind. All-Time greatest players at their positions, or at least in the convo. How many have drafted their superstar and never won a thing?

 

[Phrazbit]

Only 8 NBA teams have won titles in the last 30 years.

15 have won in the NFL, 18 have won in baseball.

I'm not awake enough to determine the relevance of those stats, but I can say that its a lot harder to get there in the NBA but its easier to hold on.

There isn't a proven formula for success. You look at the teams that draft in top 3... you end up seeing a lot of the same crap teams over and over again. Cleveland had the best player of his generation, they repeatedly have landed the top pick, yet they're about to get dispatched again. Golden State meanwhile has only one guy drafted in the top 5 on their roster, and they got him via trade.

Its not as black and white. Virtually all modern title winners are a mix of astute drafting and a few brilliant trades, the Spurs might be the lone exception as almost entirely home grown but what happened with David Robinson getting hurt leading to getting Duncan and having both... thats obvious not a formula that can be copied. Teams need to be able to adjust to the reality of their situation. The Suns right now are sitting 13th in the lotto, they're a long way from contending but if their goal is to swing for the fences... then great, its what they need to do, and if that homerun opportunity does not come along then they should blow it up.

What would scare me is if they started tossing out contracts to aged veterans in an effort to hold the line, like the Suns from 2010 to 2013. If the offseason moves consist of them adding a bunch of older players in order to shore up the depth, then I will join everyone else and grab a pitch fork, but I don't think thats where this is going.

 

[BC867]

Cleveland had the best player of his generation, they repeatedly have landed the top pick, yet they're about to get dispatched again.

Your points are well taken. But, for the record, the Cavs are about to get dispatched because they have lost their 2nd and 3rd best players. If not, is there any doubt that they would finish on top?

 

[Phrazbit]

Your points are well taken. But, for the record, the Cavs are about to get dispatched because they have lost their 2nd and 3rd best players. If not, is there any doubt that they would finish on top?

Yes, I think with Love and Irving healthy that the Warriors would still win this series. I don't think Love being out has mattered and the Warriors played very poorly and won in game 1 anyway. I think Irving or no Irving this series was going to be Warriors in 5 games or less. Furthermore, I think if Gasol didn't get hurt that there is a real chance the Cavs don't even get by Chicago.

 

[Errntknght]

Yes, I think with Love and Irving healthy that the Warriors would still win this series. I don't think Love being out has mattered and the Warriors played very poorly and won in game 1 anyway. I think Irving or no Irving this series was going to be Warriors in 5 games or less. Furthermore, I think if Gasol didn't get hurt that there is a real chance the Cavs don't even get by Chicago.

I agree that Love has not been missed that much, primarily because Tristan Thompson has become a beast in these playoffs, but with Kyrie healthy I think Cleveland would be close to an even money bet. The old guys they brought haven't been contributing much but Thompson, Mozgov and Deladova have stepped up their games. Heck, if GSW gets too overconfident Cleveland might knock them off yet.

 

[Phrazbit]

I agree that Love has not been missed that much, primarily because Tristan Thompson has become a beast in these playoffs, but with Kyrie healthy I think Cleveland would be close to an even money bet. The old guys they brought haven't been contributing much but Thompson, Mozgov and Deladova have stepped up their games. Heck, if GSW gets too overconfident Cleveland might knock them off yet.

I think Kyrie or no Kyrie... the Warriors are going to win tonight by 20+. They came out tight and didn't play like themselves for most of game one (and won anyway). The talent and coaching disparity in this series is massive. Golden State is better at, literally, every single aspect of the game, and that was the case before anyone got hurt.

IMO the Cavs are the 3rd best team the Warriors have faced in the playoffs. Houston vs Golden State was the finals.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Yes, I think with Love and Irving healthy that the Warriors would still win this series. I don't think Love being out has mattered and the Warriors played very poorly and won in game 1 anyway. I think Irving or no Irving this series was going to be Warriors in 5 games or less. Furthermore, I think if Gasol didn't get hurt that there is a real chance the Cavs don't even get by Chicago.

you can't say if Gasol didn't get hurt... without acknolwedging that the Cavs had a one leg Irving and no Love... so who cares if he got hurt.

and I think you're dead wrong that if Love and Irving were healthy the Warriors would win the series. That team is easily the best team in the league and has been since they made the trade for Mosgov, Shumpert and Smith.

 

[sunsfan88]

Your points are well taken. But, for the record, the Cavs are about to get dispatched because they have lost their 2nd and 3rd best players. If not, is there any doubt that they would finish on top?

Not just that, it looks like this series will go the distance. CLE isn't just gonna bend over backward and take it, they can win even with the guys out. Will it be enough to beat the Warriors? We'll see. But to count them out so early is just foolish imo. Plenty of ball left.

 

[sunsfan88]

"It can be challenging to build through the middle," Ryan McDonough said. "But it's something we've studied, and something that can be done. There is a blueprint, and the Houston Rockets come to mind. They did a great job of staying competitive while looking for a star player, and suddenly, James Harden becomes available. That's what we're trying to do. That's how we're positioning ourselves."

http://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...ix-suns-jeff-hornacek-cardinals-nba/28509215/

I hate, hate, hate, hate this idea. The Rockets got incredibly lucky with James Harden situation in OKC. Other teams have learned from that and won't make that same mistake again like keeping Perkins instead of a bidding superstar. No team will give up their young rising player for so little anymore. No team will likely give him up period.

And despite what the Suns or McD thinks, the Suns assets are not as highly valued as they think it is. The most valuable asset was probably the 2016 LAL 1st rd pick which they gave to Philly.

Houston was stuck in the middle ground for a while til again, they got lucky, my goodness I can't believe we're following that path. We're the Suns, we don't get that type of luck.

 

[Covert Rain]

The Spurs and Lakers come to mind. All-Time greatest players at their positions, or at least in the convo. How many have drafted their superstar and never won a thing?

Maybe the better question is how many teams in recent history have drafted at least one of their Superstars that contributed to their title runs.

Only 8 NBA teams have won titles in the last 30 years.

Its not as black and white. Virtually all modern title winners are a mix of astute drafting and a few brilliant trades, the Spurs might be the lone exception as almost entirely home grown but what happened with David Robinson getting hurt leading to getting Duncan and having both... thats obvious not a formula that can be copied. Teams need to be able to adjust to the reality of their situation. The Suns right now are sitting 13th in the lotto, they're a long way from contending but if their goal is to swing for the fences... then great, its what they need to do, and if that homerun opportunity does not come along then they should blow it up.

Spot on. By the way I wasn't suggesting that all the teams winning as of late were home grown. We have seen the Spurs brilliantly reload on supporting talent via trades for free agency.

I was just saying that it appears you really have to land great talent in the draft at some point to set the foundation for a great team. The Suns constantly being on the outside looking in (even with a lotto pick) is like the Suns playing a lottery to qualify for the lottery if you get what I am saying.

I just hate that this franchise philosophy is about staying competitive and avoid bottoming out at all costs.

 

[SO91]

Maybe the better question is how many teams in recent history have drafted at least one of their Superstars that contributed to their title runs.

Are we still talking about tanking to get a top draft pick? If we are, I can only think of Miami in recent memory, besides the LAL and SA that I mentioned earlier that had a top draft pick get a title for the team that drafted them. MIA and the Lakers both needed some pretty major FA help to get those titles, so I'm not sure how those examples help the argument of tanking to get a top pick that gets you the title.

 

[Covert Rain]

Are we still talking about tanking to get a top draft pick? If we are, I can only think of Miami in recent memory, besides the LAL and SA that I mentioned earlier that had a top draft pick get a title for the team that drafted them. MIA and the Lakers both needed some pretty major FA help to get those titles, so I'm not sure how those examples help the argument of tanking to get a top pick that gets you the title.

I don't mean deliberately sitting healthy players and starters to ensure you get the #1 draft pick. What I am saying is that don't be afraid to go with what you have (i.e. young players) and lose your butt off for a period of time to let young talent develop. Don't be afraid to draft #1. Don't spend money to bring in a bunch of mediocre players just to stay "competitive". The end game is a title.

Continually drafting in the teens or lower is like buying a lottery ticket just to play the lottery. Yes, you have to bring in free agents, yes you have to pull of trades. However, those moves are completely moot if you don't have a franchise player on your team.

I am sure the belief here is that the Suns can trade for a franchise player or sign one in free agency. That doesn't appear to be in the cards. So, IF that is true, you are looking at the draft to get said player. Maximize your chances no matter how improbable. Don't ensure yourself no chance by have a strategy that guarantees mediocre draft picks year in and year out.

 

[BC867]

The end game is a title.

There are 47 reasons to dispel that as a serious Suns goal. 1968-69 to 2014-15.

Two finals appearances in 47 seasons.

The first as a Cinderella team that took the league by surprise for one magical year with a rail-thin 212 lb. Center until the novelty wore off and the league caught up with it.

The second, another one-time occurrence, rather than building a foundation for NBA excellence.

But then you did say that the end game is a title rather than a run at titles.