Bill Polian Interview

[perivolaki]

I was listening to NFL Radio on Sirius and heard a very candid interview with Bill Polian.

They asked him about Brady Quinn dropping and compared it to Rodgers and Roethlisberger dropping. He candidly said that the draft doesn't work the way it was designed anymore.

He said it was originally designed for the worst teams to get the best players but it doesn't really work that way anymore. Because of the salary cap and the huge amounts that are payed first round draft choices, especially in the top ten, the draft makes teams draft for need instead of best player.

The salary cap makes you allow a certain amount of money to positions on the team. If you already have good players at a position you can't really take a player high in the draft in that same position because you have already spent a lot on that position. If you draft the best player available and he is at that position it will throw your salary cap out of wack and you will have to cut back at other positions or let your already good players go.

This causes teams to draft strictly for need which means that mediocre players are being drafted instead of the best players.

It can also cause teams to get rid of players in preperation for the draft. If you are stocked at several positions and those positions are going to be drafted high you may have to get rid of a decent player to draft what you consider a better player.

He said it is way better to be drafting in the bottom half of the draft because the salarys aren't near as big and you can make decisions based more on ability rather than filling a need. The hugh salarys at the top of the draft make it impossible to draft based on best players available without a lot of planning ahead. That is why you don't see teams trading up into the top half of the draft anymore.

I thought this was a very thoughtful and candid interview about why it is difficult for teams that are drafting high to get better. You either get lucky and the best player available is at a need position or you have to take a player that is not nearly as good at a position of need.

You can also plan ahead and identify which are the best players available in the draft and trim your roster in those areas but again you are probably letting a good player go.

It's impossible not to think of the Cardinals situation. Was Levi Brown really ranked that high by the team? Or was Leonard Davis not franchised because the team foresaw that a couple of offensive linemen would be rated highly and LD was a casualty of only so much money being allocated to the offensive line.

I know we were not going to draft a quarterback and we had just signed Edge the year before so AP would have made the amount of money spent at the running back position intolerable.

According to Bill Polian these are facts that teams drafting in the top ten have to deal with. It's not that their cheap or they don't want to spend the money it's that the salary cap and huge amount paid to high draft picks really limit what a team can do.

For my money I think the Cards could see this coming and made a decision to let Leonard Davis walk. When they let him go they may have thought that Thomas would be there at #5 or they may have liked Brown just as well. It looks to me that once the decision to let Davis go was made the team was locked into taking an offensive linemen at #5.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Polian is way off

thanks for the write up but what Polian is saying makes no sense what so ever. I think the thing that stopped the Cards from drafting Peterson for example was his injury in question, we already have a great back with at least two more years of good play, and frankly our line stunk so we needed Brown. I think in the Cards position and other teams, money had nothing to do with it. Quinn slide in the draft because he is not close to the QB prospects that where in the draft last year.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I know.

I mean the guy only won the Superbowl last year. What the heck does he know ?

 

[DevilPrideBAS]

thanks for the write up but what Polian is saying makes no sense what so ever. I think the thing that stopped the Cards from drafting Peterson for example was his injury in question, we already have a great back with at least two more years of good play, and frankly our line stunk so we needed Brown. I think in the Cards position and other teams, money had nothing to do with it. Quinn slide in the draft because he is not close to the QB prospects that where in the draft last year.

Its not like a guy who he has turned three teams into super bowl caliber teams knows what hes talking about. This guy is the best at what he does and thats why it should make sense to everyone. Go Cardinals

 

[perivolaki]

Its not like a guy who he has turned three teams into super bowl caliber teams knows what hes talking about. This guy is the best at what he does and thats why it should make sense to everyone. Go Cardinals

Thanks for the comments. He seemed like he was very sincere in his comments. So much so in fact that he seemed to imply that some changes were being considered. He didn't say that exactly but you could tell he was concerned that the system wasn't working. I thought it was significant because this is a guy and team that is successful not some guy from the Cardinals whining about how the system isn't fair.

 

[Capital Card]

Actually, I think what Polian said explains a lot of what the Cards did.

Knowing there were two highly rated tackles in the draft, they decided to let Big walk as they knew they could get either Brown or Thomas.

Why continue to spend a ton of money on a guy that has continually disappointed when you can get by spending a bit less on one of two guys who may turn out better?

Unfortunately, we won't know if they made the right choice for a few years.

Go Cards!!!

 

[BullheadCardFan]

He said it is way better to be drafting in the bottom half of the draft because the salarys aren't near as big and you can make decisions based more on ability rather than filling a need. The hugh salarys at the top of the draft make it impossible to draft based on best players available without a lot of planning ahead. That is why you don't see teams trading up into the top half of the draft anymore.

Very good point ..

The salaries paid to the top players end up restricting the teams cap space .. and if you don't get an impact player you are still stuck with the contract ...

 

[dreamcastrocks]

thanks for the write up but what Polian is saying makes no sense what so ever. I think the thing that stopped the Cards from drafting Peterson for example was his injury in question, we already have a great back with at least two more years of good play, and frankly our line stunk so we needed Brown. I think in the Cards position and other teams, money had nothing to do with it. Quinn slide in the draft because he is not close to the QB prospects that where in the draft last year.

You may be pretty lonely, because a lot of us agree with what Polian said. Quinn is just as good as any prospect this draft has seen, and better than any of last year. (Alex Smith)

Do you really think that we would have drafted Levi Brown if we still had Big?

 

[Pariah]

You may be pretty lonely, because a lot of us agree with what Polian said. Quinn is just as good as any prospect this draft has seen, and better than any of last year. (Alex Smith)

I think Polian is mostly right, but I don't understand why this came up when talking about Quinn.

The Browns HAD a need at QB. The DON'T have ungodly amounts of money tied up in the position. So, they didn't pass on Quinn for the reasons Polian is claiming the draft doesn't work. They passed on Quinn because they liked Joe Thomas better.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I think Polian is mostly right, but I don't understand why this came up when talking about Quinn.

The Browns HAD a need at QB. The DON'T have ungodly amounts of money tied up in the position. So, they didn't pass on Quinn for the reasons Polian is claiming the draft doesn't work. They passed on Quinn because they liked Joe Thomas better.

True. Maybe he was a slap at Miami too?

 

[Mulli]

True. Maybe he was a slap at Miami too?

Why, they got a heck of a punt returner?

 

[Pariah]

True. Maybe he was a slap at Miami too?

Miami makes sense in this context. I think they might even had dead cap-money at the QB position, right? They overpaid for AJ Feeley and was Harrington cut, or a FA? If he was cut, I bet it's not a clean break on the books. And, of course, you have all that money tied up in Culpepper (who I still think might end up being okay for them).

 

[Pariah]

I just re-read that. For some reason I thought he was talking specifically about the Browns. I misread it the first time.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Well, if the Cards want to avoid the problems drafting in the top 10, they just have to start winning.

That's all. Easy enough.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

You may be pretty lonely, because a lot of us agree with what Polian said. Quinn is just as good as any prospect this draft has seen, and better than any of last year. (Alex Smith)

Do you really think that we would have drafted Levi Brown if we still had Big?

Alex Smith was 2005...No way is Quinn better than Leinart or Young...he is also probably not better than Cutler.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Alex Smith was 2005...No way is Quinn better than Leinart or Young...he is also probably not better than Cutler.

You're right, but he is still the better prospect than Smith. If he is not on Cutlers level, he is just below.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

You're right, but he is still the better prospect than Smith. If he is not on Cutlers level, he is just below.

I actually think he's on the level of Smith and Rogers...IMO all three will end up being busts.

 

[perivolaki]

I think Polian is mostly right, but I don't understand why this came up when talking about Quinn.

The Browns HAD a need at QB. The DON'T have ungodly amounts of money tied up in the position. So, they didn't pass on Quinn for the reasons Polian is claiming the draft doesn't work. They passed on Quinn because they liked Joe Thomas better.

I think his point is that Quinn had good value after Clevland picked and no team took him because they already had a lot of money committed to the quarterback position. When the draft was first designed it wasn't unusual for teams to draft a good player even though they were stocked at that players position. The theory being that you draft the best player.

What he's saying is that everyone passed on Quinn even though he has greater value than the players those teams chose. Because of the amount of money a high draft choice commands teams can not afford to take the best player available if they are already paying another player at that position a lot of money.

Lets say team "A" is paying a quarterback a lot of money but he isn't very productive. Quinn starts to fall and a team could pick him and upgrade considerably at a crucial position of quarterback. The thing is because of the big salary they are already paying on top of what it would cost for Brady Quinn they can't do it. It throws their salary cap out of whack.

If they selected Quinn they would have to cut their current quarterback resulting in a hit to their cap space or cut a productive player at another position where there is not a big cap hit.

In either case they lose depth and/or cap space at quarterback or they lose another very good player. In reality what usually happens is that teams pass on a guy that in theory would be an upgrade at a position because of the huge salary and the effect that would have on the cap space.

His premis is that the draft was designed so that the worst teams get the best players and because of the huge salarys commanded high in the draft and the effect they have on the cap it is not happening.

 

[JeffGollin]

I have a lot of respect for Bill Polian and feel he's onto something when he says the draft isn't working the way it's supposed to - but for different reasons:

I have always favored a "best player who can most help our team" approach more than purely "best athlete."

(Note - I do not favor saying: "We need a tackle, let's draft the best available tackle regardless of ability." I do believe in weighing team need and fit into each player's evaluation and rating. And I also believe in creating mini-boards from pick to pick since the players we just drafted may influence our new team needs).

Applying that principle, I believe that Levi Brown would have probably been in the top 8 -10 of the Cardinals' "best available player" board anyway; so that when he moved to the top of our top 120 board of "best available players who can help us", we could draft him with little or no dropoff in talent. (The more tape I watch of Thomas and Brown, the more I agree with reports that Brown might actually grade higher than Thomas. At the very least, the two were closer together than the various draft publications seemed to indicate).

I do, however feel that successful, well-stocked teams can afford to roll the dice on riskier athletes with higher upsides without having to worry about wrecking the franchise. And they can stockpile their rosters with the best available players regardless of position (because they're already covered with talent at every position). These teams can also afford to trade older veterans for more picks and then then use those extra picks to trade up to get better players they've specifically targeted. And they can cherry pick role players in free agency to fill one or two specific holes. (Translation: New England Patriots).

So yes, the rich get richer but not because there's a growing trend to "draft for need." A lot of other factors go into the process.

 

[Goodyear Card]

I agree with Polian that drafting in the top 10 hurts a team. for the money you are risking with an unproven player you can sign two or three high quality veteran players and if a top ten player is a bust it can hurt the team for 3 or 4 years. The fact that no team wants to trade in to the top ten should tell you that the cost is too great. The NFL needs to step in and reduce the salaries for the top draft picks. Maybe they can limit the contracts to three years. Then after three years the team could decide if a player is worth a long term contract.

 

[nurnay]

Here's to getting out of the top 10 picks every year and into the bottom 10.

 

[perivolaki]

(Note - I do not favor saying: "We need a tackle, let's draft the best available tackle regardless of ability." I do believe in weighing team need and fit into each player's evaluation and rating. And I also believe in creating mini-boards from pick to pick since the players we just drafted may influence our new team needs).

Applying that principle, I believe that Levi Brown would have probably been in the top 8 -10 of the Cardinals' "best available player" board anyway; so that when he moved to the top of our top 120 board of "best available players who can help us", we could draft him with little or no dropoff in talent. (The more tape I watch of Thomas and Brown, the more I agree with reports that Brown might actually grade higher than Thomas. At the very least, the two were closer together than the various draft publications seemed to indicate).

I couldn't agree more with what you are saying. The question is if the Cardinals didn't have to pay such an outrageous salary to Levi Brown would they have kept Leonard Davis and then drafted Brown.

The team identified an area that needed upgrading (the offensive line) but in upgrading they had to let go of Leonard Davis. That's the point Polian is making. In the old days when they didn't have to pay this huge amount to an untested rookie they could draft Brown and keep Davis. This is truely upgrading your team.

This really makes a team better which is what the draft was designed to do. Now we have to hope that Brown is immediately better than Leonard Davis or we could find ourselves drafting a player in the top ten and having to make some of these hard decisions all over again next year.

You see what he is saying? It can be a revolving door at the top of the draft. The teams at the lower half of the draft can more easily hold on to good players while still drafting the best available players because they are not having to pay such outrageous sum to rookies. They have good records and continue to draft lower and keep and draft better players instead of constantly having to fill a need.

 

[JeffGollin]

I couldn't agree more with what you are saying. The question is if the Cardinals didn't have to pay such an outrageous salary to Levi Brown would they have kept Leonard Davis and then drafted Brown...It can be a revolving door at the top of the draft. The teams at the lower half of the draft can more easily hold on to good players while still drafting the best available players because they are not having to pay such outrageous sum to rookies..

I buy the gist of what you're saying, but a few things need clarification:

1. I don't believe we would have kept Leonard if we "didn't have to pay the outrageous salary to Levi Brown (a salary, incidently, which is accounted for in the rookie cap pool and would have been spent anyway). Leonard wanted to go back to his home state of Texas. One foot was already out the door. I believe deep down that Leonard simply didn't want to be here.

2. That said - here's where your "revolving door" concept makes sense. Confucious was fond of saying that "teams who consistently draft at the top of the draft are less likely to be winners than teams who consistently draft at the bottom. A significant number of veteran players would like to own a Super Bowl ring before they retire. Human nature being what it is, they're going to lean toward re-signing with a contender (i.e. a team picking at the bottom of the draft).

3. So what you get is a "churning process" by which a lot of talented rookies wind up on weaker teams to replace veterans who are ready to fly the coop and join more successful teams. (Many of those rooks, 5 - 6 years later, will do likewise and the process will continue to repeat itself). Add to this the fact that teams pretty well set on their rosters can afford to take bigger risks on high-upside boom or bust type players and you can see how the rich continue to get richer.

 

[Skkorpion]

Other than Brady Quinn, not one single skilled position player from Notre Dame was drafted in any round of the entire draft. None. Only one 2006 starter, the TE, did not graduate or turn pro and he was injured with torn knee cartilege the last 3 games.

Then consider that Quinn lost only 3 games this year, all to top 5 teams, two of those on the road.

Only one other ND offensive player was drafted, unless I missed something, and that was Ryan Harris, an OG at 287 lbs who played left tackle poorly.

Come back in three years and we'll revisit this.

 

[CardLogic]

If the Cardinals franchised Davis (the only way they could have kept him), and drafted Levi Brown by my; alibet rough calculations (Where are you, joeshmo?); they would have had about 22-25 million dollars tied up on those two players. Throw in O. Ross and R. Wells and it's in the neighborhood of 30 million for the OT position.

Polian knows exactly what he is talking about. The solution is a cap on rookie salaries! Will the NFL do it?