Boivin TT article - a must read

[George O'Brien]

That's exactly what's faulty in the logics of most pro-Marion fans here. They just look at the stats and say without his contribution the remaining team stats would imply a total failure to achieve anything.

Yet, the true argument is about what an alternative roster with Marion's contract replaced by others could achieve. When we say, get rid of him, we always picture a full alternative roster.

Do you? The "alternative roster" is simply a fantasy.

We keep going over the same math related to dumping Marion. The most you can use in free agency is not likely to be much more than an MLE. That's it. One guy. Not two or three guys. One guy, period.

Right now the Suns have an effective salary structure of about $60 million (assuming minimum salaries on the remaining slots). Remove Marion and that puts the payroll at $45 million, with a cap of roughly $50 million. With luck, you might get just over $5 million to $5.5 under cap. That's going to get you one guy, not three.

Can you name one guy who will get the job done in a year when career backups like Claxton and Jackson are getting more money than this?

This doesn't mean that we're opposed to dealing Marion. It's just that giving him away doesn't help the team and that's about all other teams are proposing.

 

[Covert Rain]

What would you use that $15 million for that would better serve the team than Marion?

1) A single player making over $10 million (e.g. Ben Wallace, Rashard Lewis)
2) A borderline allstar player at $10 million plus a $5 million player (e.g. )
3) Three $5 million guys, perhaps on rookie contracts (e.g. Claxton + Pryzbilla + some good rookie)

Depth would be better, but at the expense of Marion the team would not be better.

Marion is very valuable. He's not worth MAX as much as maybe Garnett, Kobe, Wade, etc but he is still an excellent player. He is one of the most versatile players in the entire league. His main flaws are that he doesn't draw a double team or shoot lights out from 3pt range. At the same time, if we replaced him with a different 11+ rebounder we would cry that the guy can't run down the floor. If we replaced him with a great shooting PF/SF we would complain that he can't rebound or something.

Sorry but trading Marion would not free up 16 million in cap. Because of his number of years your allowed to pay him a certain amount more per year then some other team would be (following cap limits). If you just traded Marion for say PICKS. You would only get a 5 Million dollare MLE spot in return. If you trade Marion for another player, that player or players would have to be within 10% of Marions overall contract.

The possibilities of finding a team that would just happen to have the type of stats that match Marions is next to impossible. More then likely you would have to trade him for a player or players that you would end up cutting to save money. Which again, would leave you with the 5 million dollare MLE.

Sounds like a great deal to me. Find me another free agent or a combination of of players that could magically make up for the loss of Shawn. How many players do you think you would get for a 5 million dollare MLE? What quality player would you get for just one player using the MLE. Good luck with that.

 

[cly2tw]

Do you? The "alternative roster" is simply a fantasy.

We keep going over the same math related to dumping Marion. The most you can use in free agency is not likely to be much more than an MLE. That's it. One guy. Not two or three guys. One guy, period.

Right now the Suns have an effective salary structure of about $60 million (assuming minimum salaries on the remaining slots). Remove Marion and that puts the payroll at $45 million, with a cap of roughly $50 million. With luck, you might get just over $5 million to $5.5 under cap. That's going to get you one guy, not three.

Can you name one guy who will get the job done in a year when career backups like Claxton and Jackson are getting more money than this?

This doesn't mean that we're opposed to dealing Marion. It's just that giving him away doesn't help the team and that's about all other teams are proposing.

How much do you value Marion? How much do you think the other teams do? If his trade value given the contract is positive enough, you get sufficient assets back, such as Chandler/Deng/Thabo and spares for instance. Or do you think Marion is not worth that to Chicago?

Even if there were a team with enough cap room to take Marion for nothing, we'd have the trade exceptions and picks to acquire assets of need.

Think dynamically! Not just stop where it's convenient for you to maintain your current stand/position.

PS: BobbyJ and Claxton went to bad teams who have to overpay in general to get FAs. As it looks now, both Przybila and Nazr are only getting MLE. So, it's can't be that bad to find "bargains" on the market.

 

[Chaplin]

How much do you value Marion? How much do you think the other teams do? If his trade value given the contract is positive enough, you get sufficient assets back, such as Chandler/Deng/Thabo and spares for instance. Or do you think Marion is not worth that to Chicago?

Even if there were a team with enough cap room to take Marion for nothing, we'd have the trade exceptions and picks to acquire assets of need.

Think dynamically! Not just stop where it's convenient for you to maintain your current stand/position.

PS: BobbyJ and Claxton went to bad teams who have to overpay in general to get FAs. As it looks now, both Przybila and Nazr are only getting MLE. So, it's can't be that bad to find "bargains" on the market.

There is usually a huge difference between what we think a player is worth and what other teams will offer for him. The Timberwolves may think that Marion is fairly equal to KG in value, but that doesn't mean they would offer him.

Marion may be valued the same around the league, but the levels of the proposed deals will all vary, sometimes ridiculously. That's why you can't count on a deal "such as" Chandler/Deng/Thomas for Marion. It's like pulling names out of a hat simply because their salaries match up. Rarely are there even talent trades in the NBA, or any sport for that matter. Which is why the fact that all the offers for Marion have been bad makes so much sense.

 

[Joe Mama]

If you're looking at assuming a replacement, or replacements, will equal Marion's production, then there is no point in discussing it because no manner of differing viewpoint will sway you.

I look at it and say that if it was KG for Marion, then sure, there wouldn't be a drop off. But if it was Marion for 3 role players, they would most definitely NOT equal Marion's production, because 3 role players that cannot affect the outcome of a game does not equal one star who can. That's not even mentioning if you do some money-matching--while Jermaine O'Neal might be comparable, Erick Dampier would not.

Assuming that whatever we would receive in return for Marion would equal his production is unrealistic--which is why he hasn't been traded yet this summer--that's all the offers the Suns have been getting.

Just for fun lets assume that the Phoenix Suns traded Shawn Marion for Tyson Chandler, Deng, and Thabo (I have a hard time believing Chicago would give up that much for Shawn Marion, but I'll indulge cly2tw). Now look at your lineup.

Starting 5:
Steve Nash
Raja Bell
Boris Diaw
Amare Stoudemire
Kurt Thomas

Bench:
Tyson Chandler
Barbosa
Deng
Thabo
James Jones
Piaktowski
Burke

Don't like Chandler's salary? Trade him to New Orleans for PJ Brown and JR Smith. Now you have a team with some better financial flexibility. The starting 5 might drop off slightly at first, but it's arguably that they would be better after playing together for a little bit. something like this may have to happen next year.

Chaplin, tobiazz,

that's where judgments differ. But it's no way as trivial as sly sly made it to be in his post.

When thinking in team terms, it's hard or even irrelevant to talk about whether his stats could or could not be duplicated or bettered by his direct replacements. With an alternative roster without him, the whole dynamics of the game and game plans change too. So, even though I'd say his stats could be duplicated by his "direct" replacements, more relevant statement is that I believe we can have an alternative roster that is more successful. That's also at the core of elindolm's lengthy reasoning in another thread.

Actually, the core of Eric's argument is that the Phoenix Suns don't have the flexibility to make the moves to make the team around the core 3-4 players could enough because of Shawn Marion's contract. That may be true, but I'm still not completely sure they would have signed Tim Thomas to the 4 years, $21 million he would have taken to return to Phoenix.

I go back and forth on Shawn Marion, but for me ultimately it comes down to what they can get in return for him. I personally don't believe that Chicago showed a whole lot of interest in Shawn Marion. If you recall, after the draft they were reporting that Chicago called to show interest in Amare Stoudemire, not Shawn Marion. I don't think Scott Skiles wants Shawn Marion, especially when he will cost $48 million for the next 3 years. Also, supposedly Seattle figured it couldn't deal for Shawn Marion because of his contract. I'm not saying that the Phoenix Suns would have made either of these deals, but apparently the other teams weren't going to do it either.

It's very likely, depending on what happens this year, that Shawn Marion will be dealt that summer. We'll see what they get in return for him, but I doubt it's as much as people are expecting.

 

[nowagimp]

All right, I have to come out of hiding for this.

Tim Thomas would have been a fine signing at $21 million over four years, or even for the $24 million that the Clippers gave him.

Yes, his attitude is questionable, he doesn't make much effort on the boards, and he's a mediocre defender at best. But that's why he's not worth more than the MLE.

Every option that has been brought up since Thomas left has major problems. They're always injured, or they can't shoot, or they're awful defensively, or they already have one foot out the retirement door. That's another reason Thomas was worth the MLE. Cheaper players, by and large, suck.

Eric makes alot of sense with regard to the suns predicament with the salary structure. Some good points are made with regard to marions relative compensation compared with other all star players and the structure of the top 3 paid players on other teams. The problem that I see is that all the other teams know this, and will try to rob the suns in a trade for marion. Rashard Lewis sounded like the best offer I heard(I dont believe the KG scenarios, they're made for suns fans), and Lewis has had a couple knee surgeries("minor ones"). Before those surgeries, Marion couldnt guard him, but now he can. I would be concerned about Lewis' ability to play a full season at a high level, he may not be the same player he was a couple years ago. Anyway you cut it, the suns are gonna pay to get rid of marion(KG, HAHA!!, I dont think so!). Unless the suns can cook up a really good deal, they may be worse off in the short term(rest of Nashs productive years) by unloading Marion simply because they rely on him in so many ways and wont get much in return.

This is where I think that BC was/is better than DAntoni, not talent evaluatiuon, but deal making.

 

[cly2tw]

Eric makes alot of sense with regard to the suns predicament with the salary structure. Some good points are made with regard to marions relative compensation compared with other all star players and the structure of the top 3 paid players on other teams. The problem that I see is that all the other teams know this, and will try to rob the suns in a trade for marion. Rashard Lewis sounded like the best offer I heard(I dont believe the KG scenarios, they're made for suns fans), and Lewis has had a couple knee surgeries("minor ones"). Before those surgeries, Marion couldnt guard him, but now he can. I would be concerned about Lewis' ability to play a full season at a high level, he may not be the same player he was a couple years ago. Anyway you cut it, the suns are gonna pay to get rid of marion(KG, HAHA!!, I dont think so!). Unless the suns can cook up a really good deal, they may be worse off in the short term(rest of Nashs productive years) by unloading Marion simply because they rely on him in so many ways and wont get much in return.

This is where I think that BC was/is better than DAntoni, not talent evaluatiuon, but deal making.

That's certainly a legitimate concern that Marion won't fetch enough so that we better stay put as long as we don't know how well Amare comes back.

As to defending Lewis better, we gotta give credit where credit is due. Marion did improve his on-man defending skill last season. He no longer bite on the obvious head fakes anymore. So, it might completely be Lewis' fault that Marion now defends him better .

 

[George O'Brien]

That's certainly a legitimate concern that Marion won't fetch enough so that we better stay put as long as we don't know how well Amare comes back.

As to defending Lewis better, we gotta give credit where credit is due. Marion did improve his on-man defending skill last season. He no longer bite on the obvious head fakes anymore. So, it might completely be Lewis' fault that Marion now defends him better .

The odd thing about the Marion discussion is how hard it is for people to grasp the obvious. It all depends on the actual deal.

Can you come up with deals that make sense for the Suns? Sure. Can you make deals that make sense for the other team? No problem. Can you come up with a deal that actually makes sense for both sides?

It would be really interesting to hear what GM's are actually offering. Interesting and painful. My guess is that most of them are for expiring contracts for useless stiffs. You want your $15 million back, then be prepared to wait and you can just write this season off.

Right now our best hope is the dream of a really stupid GM. It is not impossible, but hard to arrange (unless it's your own).

 

[F-Dog]

I still can't believe the Suns turned TT down. The first half of 4yrs/$21m is only a little more than half of what KT is getting.

(Supposedly, the Suns wanted to trade KT for an expiring contract. I'm disappointed they weren't able to do so, or willing to pay the price.)



The Suns have to save money somewhere, at some point. The problem with trading Marion is that you need to replace him, and because he's unique, nobody can be sure what it's going to take to do that (or if it's even possible).

Still, one of the core players is going to be shipped, probably next summer. Just hope like hell it isn't Amare.




OK, this is the second Boivin article on the Suns. Did they fire her in Sacramento? What's the story with that?