Bruce Arians: Ratings

kerouac9

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Stats are one thing, but if you have to solely rely upon them for player evaluation, then you have an issue with your scouting department.

Personally, I'd rather have scouts who are savvy enough to be able to evaluate the physical talent of a player and have an understand as to whether or not a player's skill set will translate into success. Take John Brown for example. How relevant are his stats coming out of Pittsburgh State versus how relevant his skill set is for BA's offense?

That's why I prefer to use the eyeball test more so than any statistical measurement.
Isn't it a little early to declare the John Brown selection a success?

The question wasn't about college scouting, anyway. It was about the performance of the line. Pros versus pros.

Coaches and organizations that dismiss advanced metrics as quickly as Arians seems to here are going to find themselves increasingly struggling to find answers to teams who do use them smartly.
 

BigRedRage

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Isn't it a little early to declare the John Brown selection a success?

The question wasn't about college scouting, anyway. It was about the performance of the line. Pros versus pros.

Coaches and organizations that dismiss advanced metrics as quickly as Arians seems to here are going to find themselves increasingly struggling to find answers to teams who do use them smartly.


i think hes more alluding to using multiple factors to grade a player vs just a metric grade without depth.

like knowing how good peterson is at what they ask him to do vs watching from the outside and assuming he did something wrong when really he didnt. Or assuming he got burnt when someone else was out of position and he did what was asked.
 

TJ

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i think hes more alluding to using multiple factors to grade a player vs just a metric grade without depth.

like knowing how good peterson is at what they ask him to do vs watching from the outside and assuming he did something wrong when really he didnt. Or assuming he got burnt when someone else was out of position and he did what was asked.


Precisely. I wasn't making any declarations about Brown, just an example of how a scout/GM evaluate players. I don't think Keim foes, "damn, that guy's DVOA is off the charts," or, "we have to get this guard because he had a +13.9 against the blitz."

Stats play a very small role in how a player is evaluated. Mostly, they're used as a reference for fans. I wanna hear about footwork, mechanics, etc.; not a QBs stats the day he eats Captain Crunch for breakfast.
 
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RugbyMuffin

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Coaches and organizations that dismiss advanced metrics as quickly as Arians seems to here are going to find themselves increasingly struggling to find answers to teams who do use them smartly.

Exactly.

SMARTLY.

I have read a mountain of information about "advanced statistic", and to me the "advanced" part of the statistics brings in a lot of speculation, and opinion.

At that point I would hope the Cardinals have there own "advanced stats" that apply what they do, and what they are looking for from each player.

Thus I say, while you are mostly correct, I feel it could be just as damaging to a team that buys into "advanced stats" that some outside party calculates, too much without seeing what they are actually describing.

Arians said his coaches have their own "tests", thus I highly doubt they are without their own set of standards, states, etc.

Numbers are just a different language, yet what they are relative to matters just as much.

And while Money Ball was a cool movie, how many World Series did the A's win from such "advanced statistics" ?
 

GimmedaBall

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wow

i predict you are banned before too long if you dont learn how to play nice. Ive never seen anyone specifically attack your intelligence or anything besides arguing a post you made yet you are constantly incredibly negative and derogatory toward other posters.

Ive had my tiffs with people on here, I still like everyone and have nothing inflammatory to say about any of them. Your behavior is not condusive so what skkorp built.

DD is a smart cat, just because you rely on stats and metrics and he doesnt has nothing to do with his or your intelligence.

:mulli:

Check dd's comments toward me from the time I joined the list and began posting my opinions. He refers to me as 'GimmedaBalls,' 'FumblesdaBall,' 'Fumbles' etc, Finally had enough and started giving it back. Just go to Page 1 of this topic---your comment was that Arians was tired of reading GimmedaBalls posts. You put that up before I even posted a comment to this thread. dd followed up by stating that he 'doesn't have to do a cut and paste.' You claim you were joking--but that is what all bullies do when the object of their 'joke' defends themselves. . . gee, can't you even take a joke?




Are you saying that it is OK for dd to give me the middle finger but then I am childish and insulting for questioning his intelligence for doing so? Is it OK to turn my forum handle into something vulgar---he adds an 's' to Gimmedaball. I never questioned dd's intelligence in regards to a preference or not for stats---it was in reference to him stating that he was giving me his 'special finger.' Would skkorp approve of dd 'giving me the finger?'or referring to a forum member repeatedly with a vulgarism?




I gather info from around the web and when I find something that I think is interesting to Cardinal fans and is on a forum topic, I post the link. You and dd are the only posters to complain with you complaining that I am 'jamming' these down your throat. I've had a couple of posters thank me for the info/stats compared to your complaint. You know you don't have to click on the link. You don't have to pay any attention to any outside information. If I hear from other forum members that they do not like my research/links, I will stop putting them up.



(1) PFF rated DRC higher than PP for the 2013 season. That is not my rating. I saw every Cardinal game but only watched Denver once or twice so I do not know if that is accurate or not. The PFF reference was posted as a point of discussion.
(2) I see the need for both stats and 'eyeballing' as a means to evaluate players. You have to do everything available to determine player fit.





How do you suggest responding when someone consistently misquotes what you stated in a post and repeats it over-and-over? And then when you point out that you never said what they are claiming, they just keep repeating it. But they are only joking.
 

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Check dd's comments toward me from the time I joined the list and began posting my opinions. He refers to me as 'GimmedaBalls,' 'FumblesdaBall,' 'Fumbles' etc, Finally had enough and started giving it back. Just go to Page 1 of this topic---your comment was that Arians was tired of reading GimmedaBalls posts. You put that up before I even posted a comment to this thread. dd followed up by stating that he 'doesn't have to do a cut and paste.' You claim you were joking--but that is what all bullies do when the object of their 'joke' defends themselves. . . gee, can't you even take a joke?




Are you saying that it is OK for dd to give me the middle finger but then I am childish and insulting for questioning his intelligence for doing so? Is it OK to turn my forum handle into something vulgar---he adds an 's' to Gimmedaball. I never questioned dd's intelligence in regards to a preference or not for stats---it was in reference to him stating that he was giving me his 'special finger.' Would skkorp approve of dd 'giving me the finger?'or referring to a forum member repeatedly with a vulgarism?




I gather info from around the web and when I find something that I think is interesting to Cardinal fans and is on a forum topic, I post the link. You and dd are the only posters to complain with you complaining that I am 'jamming' these down your throat. I've had a couple of posters thank me for the info/stats compared to your complaint. You know you don't have to click on the link. You don't have to pay any attention to any outside information. If I hear from other forum members that they do not like my research/links, I will stop putting them up.



(1) PFF rated DRC higher than PP for the 2013 season. That is not my rating. I saw every Cardinal game but only watched Denver once or twice so I do not know if that is accurate or not. The PFF reference was posted as a point of discussion.
(2) I see the need for both stats and 'eyeballing' as a means to evaluate players. You have to do everything available to determine player fit.





How do you suggest responding when someone consistently misquotes what you stated in a post and repeats it over-and-over? And then when you point out that you never said what they are claiming, they just keep repeating it. But they are only joking.

That's all well and good, but you come off as a dick in multiple other threads. I don't blame Dawg for responding the way he did.

It's fine to show emotion, but when you take it to a level in which you sound condescending, then it becomes a problem. Take BRR's implied advice and tone it down a bit.
 

BigRedRage

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Check dd's comments toward me from the time I joined the list and began posting my opinions. He refers to me as 'GimmedaBalls,' 'FumblesdaBall,' 'Fumbles' etc, Finally had enough and started giving it back. Just go to Page 1 of this topic---your comment was that Arians was tired of reading GimmedaBalls posts. You put that up before I even posted a comment to this thread. dd followed up by stating that he 'doesn't have to do a cut and paste.' You claim you were joking--but that is what all bullies do when the object of their 'joke' defends themselves. . . gee, can't you even take a joke?




Are you saying that it is OK for dd to give me the middle finger but then I am childish and insulting for questioning his intelligence for doing so? Is it OK to turn my forum handle into something vulgar---he adds an 's' to Gimmedaball. I never questioned dd's intelligence in regards to a preference or not for stats---it was in reference to him stating that he was giving me his 'special finger.' Would skkorp approve of dd 'giving me the finger?'or referring to a forum member repeatedly with a vulgarism?




I gather info from around the web and when I find something that I think is interesting to Cardinal fans and is on a forum topic, I post the link. You and dd are the only posters to complain with you complaining that I am 'jamming' these down your throat. I've had a couple of posters thank me for the info/stats compared to your complaint. You know you don't have to click on the link. You don't have to pay any attention to any outside information. If I hear from other forum members that they do not like my research/links, I will stop putting them up.



(1) PFF rated DRC higher than PP for the 2013 season. That is not my rating. I saw every Cardinal game but only watched Denver once or twice so I do not know if that is accurate or not. The PFF reference was posted as a point of discussion.
(2) I see the need for both stats and 'eyeballing' as a means to evaluate players. You have to do everything available to determine player fit.





How do you suggest responding when someone consistently misquotes what you stated in a post and repeats it over-and-over? And then when you point out that you never said what they are claiming, they just keep repeating it. But they are only joking.


I gave a minor jab with no ill intentions because you bring up metric quotes in every email. I dont care to read this whole post you made or the links you provided or converce about DRC who isnt on our team. Joking about a screen name or a silly jab of "arians must be tired of your posts" is a lot different than insulting a persons IQ. I dont mind your posts, your links, I see no harm in any of it until you start laying out personal insults toward board members.


Either way, my comment was a harmless joke and wasnt an attack on you and I dont care to have prolonged conversations about any of it just find it uncool to attack the intelligence of posters.


PS: im not complaining. I never said anything about jamming things in throats. None of the things you are saying are things I do. The only thing I am guilty of is the light hearted jab of arians not liking your posts. Other people said all of the things you sre saying I said.

I did argue that DRC is nothing near pp21 but I didnt attack you about it. If you think I am bullying you than I dont know what to tell you.
 

BigRedRage

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How do you suggest responding when someone consistently misquotes what you stated in a post and repeats it over-and-over? And then when you point out that you never said what they are claiming, they just keep repeating it. But they are only joking.


the ignore button.
 

Redheart

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Dang. Its a drama thread.

I thought we were going to rate Arians!

I am a big Whiz fan, but Arians gets an A so far.

Nice job Michael B.
 

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All this I put you on ignore before you put me on ignore--all the penis-waving, sword fighting and circle-jerking--doesn't matter.

I like PFF because they use the same rating system for every player. And I like BA because he doesn't.

Only he knows what PP is asked to do on every play. Game plans involve taking things away to make them do other things. On any given route PP may have to shade inside because the LB's are leveraged one direction or play cushion depending on the formation or play tight etc. Nobody but BA and PP know.

It's the ultimate team game and game plans are predicated on the players you have and what they can do. DRC guarded totally different dudes than PP using a totally different gameplan. It's a ridiculous argument.

Trust BA.

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All this I put you on ignore before you put me on ignore--all the penis-waving, sword fighting and circle-jerking--doesn't matter.

I like PFF because they use the same rating system for every player. And I like BA because he doesn't.

Only he knows what PP is asked to do on every play. Game plans involve taking things away to make them do other things. On any given route PP may have to shade inside because the LB's are leveraged one direction or play cushion depending on the formation or play tight etc. Nobody but BA and PP know.

It's the ultimate team game and game plans are predicated on the players you have and what they can do. DRC guarded totally different dudes than PP using a totally different gameplan. It's a ridiculous argument.

Trust BA.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

:thumbup:
 
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RugbyMuffin

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Since this thread became about analytics, I figured to post this.

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...-oilers-blogger-as-new-director-of-analytics/

Yeah, its hockey, but the point is the Devils brought in a analytics person just for their hockey club.

Why would a team waste money on something they could get off the internet ?

I would speculate, and assume it would be to tailor said stats to fit their system. And in hockey, the Devils have a very defined system that is a little "different" than the other 29 teams in the NHL.

Just a thought.

Do the Cardinals have something like this ? I dunno, thus why I am asking.
 
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RugbyMuffin

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the ignore button.

+1

GimmedaBall, this is for YOUR enjoyment to post here.

State your claim, stand behind it, and to hell with the haters that try to instigate you.

Same goes if you retort something.

If someone is just harping on you, and getting all personal, ignore him.

You will see that some talk about football, and others just bash people and bring nothing to the table.

The ignore button makes this place, AWESOME.

If have a few posters on the ignore button, and funny enough, haven't missed a thing since all there posts are usually, "Your a doo-doo, caca head" or something to that effect.

PS - JMHO. Your personal opinions of players, situations, events, etc., etc. would be far more interesting than links to another website. Yeah, the stats are great, but what are your thoughts based on those stats is what is interesting. At least that is for me. Just sayin' Do what you do man.
 
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RugbyMuffin

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Great media scrum by Arians, but he sure does love the phrase "hands on balls"...

In that heat, I don't blame him. That situation needs adjusting from time to time. I, without a doubt, have no problem being inappropriate for 5 seconds, in lieu of clipping a nut with the inner thigh. LOL
 

kerouac9

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Advanced stats is basing ratings on generic expectations. What value that has for the Cardinals ? I don't know, if any.

It depends on the individual metric, doesn't it? For examples, PFF's "metrics" are based on their game charters' opinion of what the player was supposed to do and how they were supposed to do it. Accordingly, I've long discounted PFF's evaluations, because they're essentially the average of one opinion.

What I like about Footballoutsiders' metrics is that they're more of a complete picture of whether or not, at the end of the day, one player is more successful or efficient than another. FO is very careful to say that their metrics aren't the be-all, end-all for a discussion. They (correctly) say that this is meant to start or continue a conversation and deepen that conversation.


PFF (or FO; one of those sites) once had Kevin Walter as a better wideout than Larry Fitzgerald, amongst other head scratchers. Take advanced metrics with a grain of salt and trust your eyes.

I'd be surprised if even PPF said that; I know that Football Outsiders has been bemoaning Fitz's situation for the last three seasons--basically saying that Fitz has been having horrible metrics because he's been stuck in a horrible offense with terrible quarterback play. At the same time, though, Fitz has been the target for a higher percentage of interceptions than any other receiver in the NFL for the last three seasons. I wouldn't have that info if it weren't for FO's metrics. Even more so, if you want evidence that Fitz isn't as efficient has he could or should be, those advanced metrics aren't a bad place to start.

Why would a team waste money on something they could get off the internet ?

I would speculate, and assume it would be to tailor said stats to fit their system. And in hockey, the Devils have a very defined system that is a little "different" than the other 29 teams in the NHL.

Just a thought.

Do the Cardinals have something like this ? I dunno, thus why I am asking.

I think that Disner was the guy running the Cards' analytics program, and he's likely continued to do so following his promotion. SI or someone had a cool story on how NFL teams are using analytics (and more than a handful of teams have analytics experts on their own staffs or as outside consultants).

Some teams are using it to gather data on injury prevention, speed, etc. The Eagles have a robust data collection program including guys wearing sensors during training camp to track their movements and acceleration at all times.

Other teams likely use analytics as an advanced self- and traditional scouting program. This would include yours and your opponents' offensive tendencies, plays out of particular personnel groupings, etc., etc.

I don't think that anyone here is saying the Cards should use purely analytics in evaluating free agents or their own players or prospects. But there's only so much film that you can break down on a qualitative basis before you reach a point of diminishing returns. If there are red flags that come up on a player in the fourth hour of film study, it might get lost in a traditional scouting in a way that analytics wouldn't catch.

Conversely, a single bad play at the wrong time can color our impression of a prospect that prevents us from drafting or otherwise acquiring a good player because we have one bad association.

Advanced stats should tell us that Fitzgerald is a consistently very good receiver, but probably isn't an elite receiver in the mold of Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, etc., etc. We paid him like he was and would continue to be a player like that, and he's never really been that guy. In 2008 he was top 3 in the DVOA and DYAR metrics, but before and after he was fairly consistently a 10-25 kind of guy.
 
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RugbyMuffin

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It depends on the individual metric, doesn't it? For examples, PFF's "metrics" are based on their game charters' opinion of what the player was supposed to do and how they were supposed to do it. Accordingly, I've long discounted PFF's evaluations, because they're essentially the average of one opinion.

What I like about Footballoutsiders' metrics is that they're more of a complete picture of whether or not, at the end of the day, one player is more successful or efficient than another. FO is very careful to say that their metrics aren't the be-all, end-all for a discussion. They (correctly) say that this is meant to start or continue a conversation and deepen that conversation.




I'd be surprised if even PPF said that; I know that Football Outsiders has been bemoaning Fitz's situation for the last three seasons--basically saying that Fitz has been having horrible metrics because he's been stuck in a horrible offense with terrible quarterback play. At the same time, though, Fitz has been the target for a higher percentage of interceptions than any other receiver in the NFL for the last three seasons. I wouldn't have that info if it weren't for FO's metrics. Even more so, if you want evidence that Fitz isn't as efficient has he could or should be, those advanced metrics aren't a bad place to start.



I think that Disner was the guy running the Cards' analytics program, and he's likely continued to do so following his promotion. SI or someone had a cool story on how NFL teams are using analytics (and more than a handful of teams have analytics experts on their own staffs or as outside consultants).

Some teams are using it to gather data on injury prevention, speed, etc. The Eagles have a robust data collection program including guys wearing sensors during training camp to track their movements and acceleration at all times.

Other teams likely use analytics as an advanced self- and traditional scouting program. This would include yours and your opponents' offensive tendencies, plays out of particular personnel groupings, etc., etc.

I don't think that anyone here is saying the Cards should use purely analytics in evaluating free agents or their own players or prospects. But there's only so much film that you can break down on a qualitative basis before you reach a point of diminishing returns. If there are red flags that come up on a player in the fourth hour of film study, it might get lost in a traditional scouting in a way that analytics wouldn't catch.

Conversely, a single bad play at the wrong time can color our impression of a prospect that prevents us from drafting or otherwise acquiring a good player because we have one bad association.

Advanced stats should tell us that Fitzgerald is a consistently very good receiver, but probably isn't an elite receiver in the mold of Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, etc., etc. We paid him like he was and would continue to be a player like that, and he's never really been that guy. In 2008 he was top 3 in the DVOA and DYAR metrics, but before and after he was fairly consistently a 10-25 kind of guy.

Good stuff. Thanks.
 

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