bulls-eye on the Suns

[elindholm]

Like it or not, the Suns are now the title favorites. They had the best regular-season record of any team still standing and they'll have home-court advantage the rest of the way.

The last time Phoenix was in this position, it was 1993, and a jittery team with a new superstar and a new coach won five elimination games before finally folding in that notorious final minute. This team has more experience together and their nerves seem better, but the path is no easier.

The next two weeks will be one of the most defining stretches in franchise history. No matter what happens, this series will be burned in our memories forever.

I don't think I'm ready, but fortunately, I'm not going to be among those taking the court with 40 years of frustration and near misses on the line.

 

[Cheesebeef]

i still think most people will look at the spurs as the favorite at this point.

 

[elindholm]

i still think most people will look at the spurs as the favorite at this point.

Apparently not. Oddsmakers have installed the Suns as significant favorites in the upcoming series.

 

[TucsonDevil]

Apparently not. Oddsmakers have installed the Suns as significant favorites in the upcoming series.

Oddmakers that rely financially on their decisions is one thing... but loser 'pundits' that aren't punished when they are wrong are picking the Spurs.

 

[HooverDam]

Oddmakers that rely financially on their decisions is one thing... but loser 'pundits' that aren't punished when they are wrong are picking the Spurs.

Quoted for truth.

 

[Gee!]

OMG.. I hate you fans.. Odds now?

 

[azirish]

I would not put much stake in what oddsmakers think. The odds are set in Vegas, which is closer to the Phoenix than the smaller San Antonio. I expect it will go closer to even by Sunday.

The main issue gamblers will be looking at will be how good they think the Nuggets were. If you think the Nuggets are really good, then the Spurs victories are very impressive. If you think the Nuggets are not that good, then it won't mean much.

I know that I take the Spurs very seriously. I'll admit I thought their age would catch up to them, but things like Finley coming back to form after a couple of weak seasons really suprised me. Obviously, if the Suns could somehow get their running game going the Suns would have a huge advantage, but I'm doubtful that will happen.

 

[Gaddabout]

Eric is dead right about the bulls eye. We have been the darling of the local, national, and international media for three years now. People have been so bold to suggest the Suns are so good and so entertaining, they are actually going to change the way the game is played.

Those kinds of accolades come with the price of a lot of resentment, and no team better represents the old regime like the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are the embodiment of what we've come to understand as NBA playoff basketball. There will be no small amount of people, players, and coaches, rooting for the Spurs just to spite all the media types who have jumped on the Suns' bandwagon.

I can't currently find it, but I caught Bill Walton being interviewed in some web video directly after Game 2. You could hear the bile building in the back of Kenny Smith's throat as Walton compared the Suns to the 1964-65 Celtics, and the nauseous hyperbole being thrown around about the Suns "playing the game the right way."

I'm having flashbacks of being a Dodgers fan as the team pimps a video during NBC's old Game of the Week called "Baseball: The Dodger Way" in the middle of a season in which they are last in pitching and leading the major leagues in errors.

"Organized Chaos" or "Hustle and Flow" or whatever we're going to call this style is about to step up to what will likely be final exam time.

 

[Covert Rain]

I agree that the media is going to jump on the San Antonio bandwagon. I think San Antonio is the favorite because of their defense. They have guys with rings. The National media doesn't have as much a love fest for our Suns that allot of people think. They majority of media is going to pick the Spurs to win this series.

The media is not going to favor the Suns over the Spurs until we get over that hump and prove we can beat them. That's is what most people outside the Suns bubble think.

 

[azirish]

I expect to read a lot of negative stuff about the Suns from the "you can't win with that style" crowd. I'm not sure this puts a bulls eye on the Suns' back, but it is hard to imagine there being any more pressure than simply getting by the Spurs.

 

[CaptainInsano]

In the end, I believe good triumphs over bad (not exactly evil) and bad is definately the slow, plodding, boring, snore-inducing style of the san antonio spurs.

I believe and most suns fans believe and that is all that counts, even if the spurs win this series, I won't count fast-paced small ball out. It will be that we just didn't execute or dictate our pace in the game.

Most of all it will come down to coaching mostly in adapting and countering the enemies tactics.

The suns easily have the talent to oust the spurs, but will we execute? Will the team be properly coached? Will the right adjustments and decisions be made?

I believe they will be this time, we have waited too long for this.

*edit: And another thing is our team playing to its strengths instead of letting the media dictate all this bull**** about how defense wins championships. We all see what switching the system did for the dallas mavericks.

 

[Joe Mama]

First of all, the San Antonio Spurs have as much talent as the Phoenix Suns. In fact they might have more. The reason I would consider San Antonio the favorite is that they've had the Phoenix Suns number over the last several years.

I believe the home-court advantage is incredibly important in this series. I wouldn't even give Phoenix a chance if the Spurs were starting at home. Honestly, if you wouldn't just ruin the series for me as a Phoenix Suns fan I would put money on the Spurs in this one.

Joe

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Apparently not. Oddsmakers have installed the Suns as significant favorites in the upcoming series.

Oddsmakers had the Mavs 9-1 favorites against GS.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

"Hustle & Flow" is a much better nickname than "Organized Chaos"

 

[elindholm]

Oddsmakers had the Mavs 9-1 favorites against GS.

What's your point? I didn't say the Suns would win; I said they were the favorites.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

What's your point? I didn't say the Suns would win; I said they were the favorites.

My point? You used oddsmakers to point to favorites. Oddsmakers are not always correct, or the greatest source to use when establishing favorites IMO.

 

[F-Dog]

Why wouldn't we like it? Has this iteration of the Suns lost a series yet in which they were favored? (I really doubt they were favored against the Spurs in 2005.)



George, Vegas odds are set by experts with a lot of money behind them. Individual, small-time bettors are the 'dumb money' in the system, the people whom the 'smart money' tries to line up against.

From what I've seen, the 'dumb money' is all over San Antonio here. IMO that's even better news than the odds themselves.



Joe, I would be concerned with the Spurs' talent if they were all three years younger. As things stand, my guess is that the Spurs' role players are better-suited to playing jungle ball against the Nuggets than they are running with the Suns.

 

[elindholm]

You used oddsmakers to point to favorites. Oddsmakers are not always correct, or the greatest source to use when establishing favorites IMO.

Professional oddsmakers are the best source for establishing favorites. What some people don't understand is that oddsmakers don't care who wins or loses, and they don't try to guess what the outcome of an event will be. The only thing they try to do is set the odds so that they'll get balanced action on both sides: That way, they make the same amount of profit either way.

I don't know how they arrive at their numbers (it must be a fascinating process), but they are remarkably accurate -- and by "accurate," I mean not that they pick winners, since they don't care about that, but that they correctly anticipate how the betting will fall. When you see a game open at -5.5 and it's -6.5 by tipoff, that's an example of when they missed, and then adjusted the line after the intial betting in order to strike a better balance. But for them to miss by more than a point is exceptionally rare.

They are very, very good at guessing how people are going to bet, and setting the line accordingly. So yes, they are the greatest source for establishing favorites. Unless, that is, you're using a different definition of "favorite," in which case please tell me what it is.

 

[azirish]

Actually my point is that I think the odds will even up by Sunday. The early odds were set by the early bettors and will shift as more money comes in.

Basketball is not like horse racing with professional handicappers. The betting process IS defined much more by emotions than serious analysis.

I suppose the flip side is the national media that tends to be on the east coast and don't know the western teams that well. The Spurs have been to finals, so they are at least familiar. I expect most of them will pick the Spurs.

 

[elindholm]

Actually my point is that I think the odds will even up by Sunday.

If so, it will be a oddsmaking blunder of historic proportions.

The early odds were set by the early bettors and will shift as more money comes in.

The early odds are set by the oddsmakers. There is no betting until the series goes on the board.

Basketball is not like horse racing with professional handicappers.

Huh? You think the guys who set NBA odds, with millions of dollars on the line each night, are just hobbyists?

The betting process IS defined much more by emotions than serious analysis.

The betting process is, yes. The oddsmaking process is not.

I suppose the flip side is the national media that tends to be on the east coast and don't know the western teams that well. The Spurs have been to finals, so they are at least familiar. I expect most of them will pick the Spurs.

I agree. I'm guessing the media experts will be about 60% picking the Spurs.

 

[Chaplin]

First of all, the San Antonio Spurs have as much talent as the Phoenix Suns. In fact they might have more. The reason I would consider San Antonio the favorite is that they've had the Phoenix Suns number over the last several years.

Joe

I agree with your last statement but disagree with your second. Can you point out where SA has more talent than us?

 

[jbeecham]

I agree. I'm guessing the media experts will be about 60% picking the Spurs.

I'll guess about 75% pick the Spurs in 6 or less.

 

[azirish]

I agree with your last statement but disagree with your second. Can you point out where SA has more talent than us?

I'm not sure the Spurs have more talent, but they have more experience and IMHO more discipline.

On the other hand, the Suns are vastly more athletic with some great players. When they play well, they can dominate but the Suns are inconsistent.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

Now that Dallas choked away the GS series the NBA wants and needsPhx in the finals badly. I think the soft fix will be in.

Can you imagine the ratings on SA vs Hou and SA vs Clevland?

Suns are in good shape IMO.

 

[Furio]

I think one thing a lot are overlooking is that the Suns are playing the Spurs early, instead of in the WCF. This should help the Suns because in the past, they really stumbled into the WCF. So if we are fresher, we might have a slight advantage.