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There has been plenty of consternation over Green Bay Packers first round pick Lukas Van Ness and his first couple of years in the NFL, which have not exactly been spectacular. This led many to clamor for Green Bay to bring in a pass rusher in free agency, which did not transpire.
On the surface, the concerns are valid. Van Ness had a 62.3 PFF grade as a rookie, just above average, before declining to 53.5 in Year 2.
But after two quiet seasons to start his pro career, is there still hope Van Ness can turn into a player worthy of the 13th overall pick? History suggests so.
Between 2015 and 2022, the year before Van Ness was drafted, there were 20 pass rushers drafted in the top 16 picks. Remove the elite prospects that went in the first three picks and were always going to be immediate impact players, like Aidan Hutchinson, Chase Young, Myles Garrett or the Bosa's, and there are 15 guys who had a similar draft position to LVN to compare him to.
Of those 15, seven experienced what could be defined as a "breakout" season in their third year, earning the best PFF grade of their career: Travon Walker, Zaven Collins, Josh Hines-Allen, Rashan Gary, Bradley Chubb, Leonard Floyd and Dante Fowler Jr.
Out of that group, five of them graded worse at PFF in their second year than as a rookie: Walker, Collins, Chubb, Floyd and Fowler Jr.
Walker was the first overall pick, of course, but he has not been lumped with the group of highly drafted players for this exercise as he was a projection based on traits, like Van Ness, rather than a "can't miss" prospect.
Kayvon Thibodeaux's best season of his first three was his rookie year, but he also declined in Year 2 before rebounding in Year 3.
The other edge defenders drafted in the first 16 picks not yet mentioned were Micah Parsons, Clelin Ferrell, Brian Burns, Marcus Davenport, Haason Reddick, Derek Barnett and Vic Beasley. A mixed bag with big highlights and lowlights.
The point: It is not uncommon for highly drafted pass rushers to regress in Year 2 before making real progress in Year 3.
On a negative note, Van Ness' 53.5 PFF grade last year is the worst any edge rusher drafted in the top 16 picks since 2016 has put up in their second year.
But the glass-half-full perspective is that Van Ness really did improve as a pass rusher in his second season. The poor overall mark is mostly due to his run defense grade of 46, which was one of the worst in the NFL.
As a pass rusher, Van Ness improved his PFF grade from 58.5 to 64.7. For context, Gary's grades from his first two NFL seasons? 59.5 and 65.9.
Some stats are not so encouraging. Van Ness' 9.5% pass rush win rate in his second year -- improved from 6.9% as a rookie -- is the same as Gary managed in his first season, but the overall point is that there is really no reason to panic on LVN yet.
As far as the run defense issues go, there is a good chance this was due to learning the responsibilities asked of him by new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. His struggles to adjust could be the main reason he was often behind Kingsley Enagbare, who had a 66.7 run defense grade in 2024, on the depth chart.
Plenty of people wondered why Green Bay did not open the check book for a pass rusher in free agency, it should not have been that surprising.
Josh Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo and Joey Bosa, three of the more popular names, were paid an average of $15.7 million per year. Their PFF pass rush grades? 66.7, 65.5 and 64.8, all barely better than Van Ness as a second-year player who is still only 23 years old.
Za'Darius Smith or Khalil Mack would have provided an upgrade with grades of 76.6 and 78.9 respectively, but Smith was a no go for obvious reasons, and Mack was re-signed by the Chargers before he hit free agency.
For all the anxiety over Van Ness, those inside 1265 Lombardi Avenue will not be even remotely concerned after just two years of his career, especially given how they have seen the likes of Gary develop in the past. They might be wrong, and he might not work out, but it is not time to panic yet.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Can Lukas Van Ness make third-year leap? History provides Packers hope
Continue reading...
On the surface, the concerns are valid. Van Ness had a 62.3 PFF grade as a rookie, just above average, before declining to 53.5 in Year 2.
But after two quiet seasons to start his pro career, is there still hope Van Ness can turn into a player worthy of the 13th overall pick? History suggests so.
Between 2015 and 2022, the year before Van Ness was drafted, there were 20 pass rushers drafted in the top 16 picks. Remove the elite prospects that went in the first three picks and were always going to be immediate impact players, like Aidan Hutchinson, Chase Young, Myles Garrett or the Bosa's, and there are 15 guys who had a similar draft position to LVN to compare him to.
Of those 15, seven experienced what could be defined as a "breakout" season in their third year, earning the best PFF grade of their career: Travon Walker, Zaven Collins, Josh Hines-Allen, Rashan Gary, Bradley Chubb, Leonard Floyd and Dante Fowler Jr.
Out of that group, five of them graded worse at PFF in their second year than as a rookie: Walker, Collins, Chubb, Floyd and Fowler Jr.
Walker was the first overall pick, of course, but he has not been lumped with the group of highly drafted players for this exercise as he was a projection based on traits, like Van Ness, rather than a "can't miss" prospect.
Kayvon Thibodeaux's best season of his first three was his rookie year, but he also declined in Year 2 before rebounding in Year 3.
The other edge defenders drafted in the first 16 picks not yet mentioned were Micah Parsons, Clelin Ferrell, Brian Burns, Marcus Davenport, Haason Reddick, Derek Barnett and Vic Beasley. A mixed bag with big highlights and lowlights.
The point: It is not uncommon for highly drafted pass rushers to regress in Year 2 before making real progress in Year 3.
On a negative note, Van Ness' 53.5 PFF grade last year is the worst any edge rusher drafted in the top 16 picks since 2016 has put up in their second year.
But the glass-half-full perspective is that Van Ness really did improve as a pass rusher in his second season. The poor overall mark is mostly due to his run defense grade of 46, which was one of the worst in the NFL.
As a pass rusher, Van Ness improved his PFF grade from 58.5 to 64.7. For context, Gary's grades from his first two NFL seasons? 59.5 and 65.9.
Some stats are not so encouraging. Van Ness' 9.5% pass rush win rate in his second year -- improved from 6.9% as a rookie -- is the same as Gary managed in his first season, but the overall point is that there is really no reason to panic on LVN yet.
As far as the run defense issues go, there is a good chance this was due to learning the responsibilities asked of him by new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. His struggles to adjust could be the main reason he was often behind Kingsley Enagbare, who had a 66.7 run defense grade in 2024, on the depth chart.
Plenty of people wondered why Green Bay did not open the check book for a pass rusher in free agency, it should not have been that surprising.
Josh Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo and Joey Bosa, three of the more popular names, were paid an average of $15.7 million per year. Their PFF pass rush grades? 66.7, 65.5 and 64.8, all barely better than Van Ness as a second-year player who is still only 23 years old.
Za'Darius Smith or Khalil Mack would have provided an upgrade with grades of 76.6 and 78.9 respectively, but Smith was a no go for obvious reasons, and Mack was re-signed by the Chargers before he hit free agency.
For all the anxiety over Van Ness, those inside 1265 Lombardi Avenue will not be even remotely concerned after just two years of his career, especially given how they have seen the likes of Gary develop in the past. They might be wrong, and he might not work out, but it is not time to panic yet.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Can Lukas Van Ness make third-year leap? History provides Packers hope
Continue reading...
