Cardinals Dream/Nightmare Scenario

[Krangodnzr]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/66262/cardinals-dreamnightmare-scenario

From ESPN Blogger, Mike Sando:

Dream scenario (11-5): A full offseason of healing and playbook study lets Kevin Kolb prove the Cardinals knew what they were doing when they acquired him from Philadelphia in the offseason. There's plenty of credit to go around. The team's decision to reassign assistant coach John McNulty from receivers to quarterbacks becomes a popular storyline. There's no doubt Kolb's mechanics have improved, but talent and good health are what win football games.

Michael Floyd's addition through the draft makes the Cardinals' passing game nearly impossible to defend, particularly with second-year back Ryan Williams emerging as the game-breaking runner Arizona was convinced it had drafted. Adding young linemen for Russ Grimm to develop also pays off, particularly as the season progresses. Bobby Massie looks like a keeper at right tackle. On the other side, Levi Brown picks up where he left off last season, proving Arizona was right in re-signing him to a five-year contract.

The transformation on defense surprises even the Cardinals. Yes, Arizona made strides on that side of the ball while winning seven of its final nine games in 2011. But there was no way anyone could have expected Sam Acho to challenge Simeon Rice's season franchise record for sacks since 1982 (Rice had 16.5 in 1999). With a healthy Dan Williams at nose tackle and Acho pumping up an already-underrated pass rush, cornerback Patrick Peterson takes the next logical step in his development: picking off passes and returning them for touchdowns.

Winning at San Francisco in Week 17 delivers an 11-5 record and the NFC West title to Arizona, the team's third division crown in five years.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): No one can blame Gregg Williams or Jonathan Vilma for the concussion Kolb suffers in the Hall of Fame game against New Orleans to open the exhibition season. Some in the Cardinals' organization welcome the switch to John Skelton, but with Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells predictably battling knee problems, the offense becomes one-dimensional. That's tough for a team with Brown and a rookie starting at tackle. Kolb's return after a few weeks means as much as it did last season -- nothing.

By October, it's clear the Cardinals didn't do enough at tackle or outside linebacker to take the next step. Those offseason stories about a full offseason helping Kolb seemed justified at the time, but we should have known better. McNulty's coaching helps, but players revert to form under pressure, and Kolb is no exception. He wasn't going to develop instincts all of a sudden, was he? Aldon Smith's three-sack game against Arizona on Monday night in Week 8 doesn't seem so bad when Clay Matthews collects four of them the following week.

For the second time in three seasons, the Cards finish 5-11 after getting blown out at San Francisco in Week 17. The quarterback questions persisting upon Kurt Warner's retirement continue to linger. Watching Peyton Manning in the playoffs doesn't help.

I think it's 50/50, but under dream scenario, what about Kolb failing and John Skelton sparking the team to an 11-5 record?

Mike Sando does a good job, but I think he discounts the Cardinals too much and gives WAY too much credit/leeway to the Seahawks. I mean the guy is pretty much a Seahawks homer.

 

[kerouac9]

In whose dream does Kevin Kolb fail, besides maybe Phrazbit's? Also, in that scenario how long does it take for Kolb to get the hook? Didn't Max Hall get three starts and 6 total games to prove that he was a joke? What does a guy who gets $20 million from this team in 10 months get as leeway? Is the "dream scenario" really for the coaching staff to embarrass themselves for a third time on a quarterback?

If Kolb fails but is not injured, then the team is somewhere in the ballpark of 2-5 and the season is legitimately over, unless you think that Skelton and the defense can lead the team to a 9-0 record with games at Green Bay, at Atlanta, at the Jets, and at San Francisco on the schedule for after the midpoint.

This team has to start hot, or the only storyline for the Cards will be who will be the QB in 2013. Like 3-1 hot. The schedule in 2012 doesn't have cupcakes on it.

 

[Phrazbit]

I'd be thrilled if miraculously Kolb didnt suck and somehow became healthy. I just see no reason to think it will happen. I hated the Warner signing, it reeked of another wasted several seasons on a washed up QB who couldnt hold onto the ball... but he quickly grew into an all-time favorite Cardinal.

 

[kerouac9]

Also to say this in Sando's defense: this is a breathtakingly stupid assignment to give him. I don't read the other NFLNation bloggers on ESPN with any frequency, but Sando does a really good job overall of delivering actual content and reportage pretty much every day.

It was very, very quiet, but the Seattle Seahawks had a Top 10 defense last year. Not a top 10 defense over the last ___ games, but an actual honest-to-goodness Top 10 defense. They were 7th in points per game defensively last year.

They blew out the Giants in New Jersey by 11 points. They doubled up on Philly at home. They dominated the Bears at Soldier Field. With Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst under center. Kevin Kolb wishes he played as well and as consistently as Tavaris Jackson.

Seattle might have underperformed their production last year and still ended up only one game behind us.

They're getting Syd Rice back from injury and added a ton of depth across their roster.

Don't look now, but of our common opponents, Seattle gets Green Bay, New England, and the Jets at home, with the last two flying across the country.

 

[PACardsFan]

Flaws in both scenarios. If we beat SF on the road as is indicated in the dream scenario, then we'll surpass 11-5. Unless both Kolb AND Skelton get hurt, then there's no way we finish @ 5-11 in the nightmare scenario. Too much talent & too much character on this team for that. The 5-11 of a couple years back was just the perfect storm of crap known as Scud!! Everything could go wrong & we'll still finish with 7 wins. Because we WON'T beat SF on the road, the best we'll be is 11-5. Worse case scenario is 7-9.

 

[WildBB]

Somewhere in between. 9-7 sounds good. 10-6 and we're making noise. A few W's we were'nt expecting maybe.

He's right in that injuries play a huge part. We could be fortunate or unfortunate again. You always catch someone with key players down a few times a yr. anyway.

That's why I hate predicting seasons. It'll never go how you think.

 

[BigRedRage]

Mike Sando does a good job, but I think he discounts the Cardinals too much and gives WAY too much credit/leeway to the Seahawks. I mean the guy is pretty much a Seahawks homer.

I always thought he leaned niners but i still read it daily looking for cardinals stuff. his camp reports are good.

 

[Phrazbit]

Flaws in both scenarios. If we beat SF on the road as is indicated in the dream scenario, then we'll surpass 11-5. Unless both Kolb AND Skelton get hurt, then there's no way we finish @ 5-11 in the nightmare scenario. Too much talent & too much character on this team for that. The 5-11 of a couple years back was just the perfect storm of crap known as Scud!! Everything could go wrong & we'll still finish with 7 wins. Because we WON'T beat SF on the road, the best we'll be is 11-5. Worse case scenario is 7-9.

Our schedule this year is much tougher than last year. The Cards won 4 OT games, we won an additional game on a punt return. They won ZERO games by more than 7 points. The Cards will need to improve to sustain 8-8 in my opinion. They had a lot of luck go their way last year to get where they were.

I dont think a winning season is out of the question, if one of the QBs shows any level of consistency then the team should be in good shape overall. But a losing season, and an ugly one at that, is certainly in the realm of possibility.

 

[Krangodnzr]

In whose dream does Kevin Kolb fail, besides maybe Phrazbit's? Also, in that scenario how long does it take for Kolb to get the hook? Didn't Max Hall get three starts and 6 total games to prove that he was a joke? What does a guy who gets $20 million from this team in 10 months get as leeway? Is the "dream scenario" really for the coaching staff to embarrass themselves for a third time on a quarterback?

If Kolb fails but is not injured, then the team is somewhere in the ballpark of 2-5 and the season is legitimately over, unless you think that Skelton and the defense can lead the team to a 9-0 record with games at Green Bay, at Atlanta, at the Jets, and at San Francisco on the schedule for after the midpoint.

This team has to start hot, or the only storyline for the Cards will be who will be the QB in 2013. Like 3-1 hot. The schedule in 2012 doesn't have cupcakes on it.

What I meant by Kolb failing is that he has a bad preseason, then like 2-3 bad games and then Skelton takes over.

I think there is a good chance that neither QB is a good starter, and we still have a winning or nonlosing season.

As far as Seattle is concerned: Just like the Niners, they had A LOT of takeaways last year. In fact in games that they didn't win the turnover battle, the Seahawk lost every one.

They should be concerned with that; if a team played them even, they lost every time. That's because their offense was inept and needs more possessions than their opponents. I don't think they added enough on offense to change this.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I always thought he leaned niners but i still read it daily looking for cardinals stuff. his camp reports are good.

He covered the Seahawks for years and lives in the Sea-Taco area.

I probably shouldn't hold it against him; I mean, he does live in a miserable, overcast, rainy craphole (Tacoma).

 

[kerouac9]

What I meant by Kolb failing is that he has a bad preseason, then like 2-3 bad games and then Skelton takes over.

I think there is a good chance that neither QB is a good starter, and we still have a winning or nonlosing season.

As far as Seattle is concerned: Just like the Niners, they had A LOT of takeaways last year. In fact in games that they didn't win the turnover battle, the Seahawk lost every one.

They should be concerned with that; if a team played them even, they lost every time. That's because their offense was inept and needs more possessions than their opponents. I don't think they added enough on offense to change this.

Do you really think that Kolb would get the hook after 3 bad games? Honestly?

Hmmm... Well, INTs are earned. The random turnover statistic is fumble recoveries. According to NFL.com's stats, the D forced 18 fumbles, and recovered half of them. On offense they coughed up the ball 22 times and lost 9 of them.

Overall Seattle was only +8 in turnovers. 5T in the NFL, but is their turnover differential any less repeatable than Detroit's +11 or New England's +17(!!)? Why?

It's not like Seattle squeaked out on the right side of a lot of random games. When you legitmately dominate teams, it means more than the Cards going 0-3 in games decided by 7 points or more and then ending up on the right side of more than half of the close ones (which tends to regress toward the mean).

Arizona coughed up the rock 24 times on offense and only lost 9 of them. We probably won't have that kind of luck next year. One of the many reasons that I doubt we're even able to repeat the success of last year.

 

[PACardsFan]

Our schedule this year is much tougher than last year. The Cards won 4 OT games, we won an additional game on a punt return. They won ZERO games by more than 7 points. The Cards will need to improve to sustain 8-8 in my opinion. They had a lot of luck go their way last year to get where they were.

I dont think a winning season is out of the question, if one of the QBs shows any level of consistency then the team should be in good shape overall. But a losing season, and an ugly one at that, is certainly in the realm of possibility.

Haven't we learned by now that there is no way to judge how tough a schedule is based on the previous year. Whenever I've felt we had an easy schedule, teams turned out to be better than expected. The same can be said in reverse. Because a team won 4 OT games does not mean they were lucky, nor does margin of victory mean anything. They showed a TON of character in winning the OT games & the close margins just build additional character. The margins will be larger this year as the offense will be significantly better this year. Barring major injuries, this will be a very good team this year. Even with catastrophic injuries, this team won't quit & we will win at least 7 games. Minus the QB position, this is a MUCH, MUCH better team than the 2008 team that should have won the SB!

 

[Duckjake]

Do you really think that Kolb would get the hook after 3 bad games? Honestly?

Hmmm... Well, INTs are earned. The random turnover statistic is fumble recoveries. According to NFL.com's stats, the D forced 18 fumbles, and recovered half of them. On offense they coughed up the ball 22 times and lost 9 of them.

Overall Seattle was only +8 in turnovers. 5T in the NFL, but is their turnover differential any less repeatable than Detroit's +11 or New England's +17(!!)? Why?

It's not like Seattle squeaked out on the right side of a lot of random games. When you legitmately dominate teams, it means more than the Cards going 0-3 in games decided by 7 points or more and then ending up on the right side of more than half of the close ones (which tends to regress toward the mean).

Arizona coughed up the rock 24 times on offense and only lost 9 of them. We probably won't have that kind of luck next year. One of the many reasons that I doubt we're even able to repeat the success of last year.

Other things to consider: we had zero defensive TDs last year but 4 PRs. We were 1-5 vs playoff teams. Teams were still running the ball successfully on us at the end of the season. We were 7-2 yet -8 in turnover differential in those 9 games. A higher % of Kolb's passes picked up 1st downs but Skelton had more passes that gained 20 yards or more. The last 9 games of the season we outscored our opponents in the 4th Q and OT 92-23!

An enigma? I would say so. Like in Sando's scenario's this team could go 5-11 or 11-5. And unlike the McGinnis years that is based on reality not an over indulgence in the Kool Aid.

 

[kerouac9]

Haven't we learned by now that there is no way to judge how tough a schedule is based on the previous year. Whenever I've felt we had an easy schedule, teams turned out to be better than expected. The same can be said in reverse. Because a team won 4 OT games does not mean they were lucky, nor does margin of victory mean anything. They showed a TON of character in winning the OT games & the close margins just build additional character. The margins will be larger this year as the offense will be significantly better this year. Barring major injuries, this will be a very good team this year. Even with catastrophic injuries, this team won't quit & we will win at least 7 games. Minus the QB position, this is a MUCH, MUCH better team than the 2008 team that should have won the SB!

Really? Because I thought we had an easy schedule last year, and we did. Do you think that the Packers are going to become a 4-12 team this year? How about the Pats?

I expect the 49ers to come back down to earth a little bit, but I also expect the Rams and Seahawks to be (incrementally) improved. The schedule is what it is; the AFC East is a division of Haves and Have Nots. Maybe the entire NFC North takes a step back; maybe the Lions aren't as good as they looked last year (I kind of expect that to be the case).

The sad fact is that the Cards missed a huge opportunity last season against a cupcake schedule. We were 8-8 with the easiest schedule in the league. This year we're facing a lot more travel and much tougher opponents.

EDIT: Margin of victory means a ton, as does wins in OT being largely random chance. I know that you choose not to believe it, but the facts are the facts. You should invest $15 in the Football Outsiders Almanac when it comes out in July. Really, really interesting reading, and might change your mind on how the NFL works.

 

[Duckjake]

EDIT: Margin of victory means a ton, as does wins in OT being largely random chance

Like I wrote we're an enigma. 1-5 vs playoff teams but outscored our last 9 opponents 92-23 after the 3rd quarter. 92-23 that's a huge margin. 122 points over a 16 game season. Have we ever outscored our opponents by 122 points? Heck, have we ever outscored our opponents by more than 75 points in one season? It's not in the same ballpark as the Saints or Patriots who outscore teams by 150-200 points in a season but its huge for us.

Plus that the difference was 69 points has to have some sort of cosmic significance. Especially for Desertdawg

 

[Bodha]

Man wastes words.



Dream: 16-0, win super bowl

Nightmare: 16-0, lose super bowl (to the steelers)





/

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I think this team will be 8-8 next year.

Sent from Rugbymuffin's Super Phone

 

[JeffGollin]

Dream scenario - We win the Super Bowl.

Nightmare scenarios - An asteroid hits earth and wipes out civilization as we know it. North Korea drops a nuke on Fargo, ND. A solar storm fries 100% of computerized equipment and puts us back in the Stone Age. A weird plague kills any man or woman who looks-at and is turned-on by any member of the opposite sex.

Kolb? Skelton? Heck! It's only football.

 

[40yearfan]

He covered the Seahawks for years and lives in the Sea-Taco area.

I probably shouldn't hold it against him; I mean, he does live in a miserable, overcast, rainy craphole (Tacoma).