Cardinals Economics - Kyler and the Future

[Chris_Sanders]

I wanted to put this in one area so people can be informed as to what we are facing in the next 3 years.

Cardinals Cap Space Right Now: $2,186 This is comically bad. The team will have to make several moves in the next two weeks to do anything

We can generate cap space in the following manners:

Pre June 1st Cuts over 2 million

DJ Humphries 15 million
Jordan Phillips $4,095,666
Rodney Hudson $4,570,000
Justin Pugh $9,848,529
Jordan Hicks $6,500,000
Devon Kennard $4,858,088
Matt Prater $3,575,000
Marcus Golden $3,235,294
Byron Murphy $2,540,000
Zach Allen $2,540,000
Justin Murray $2,294,118

Cuts over 1 million

Kelvin Beachum $1,675,000
Tanner Vallejo $1,594,118
Andy Isabella $1,126,347

Trade Pre June 1st:

Kyler Murray $5,489,360
JJ Watt 6,300,000

Restructures Max:

DeAndre Hopkins $10,786,667
JJ Watt $9,285,000
Budda Baker $6,643,33
Jordan Phillips $6,660,00
Rodney Hudson $7,297,500
Devon Kennard $2,815,000

Extensions Max (Only listing players you may actually want to extend)

Hopkins: $12,944,000
Humphries $10,304,000
JJ Watt $9,904,000
Budda Baker $7,972,000
Rodney Hudson: $7,784,000
Justin Pugh: $6,324,000
Kyler Murray: $3,619,488
Matt Prater: $1,964,000
Zach Allen $1,260,000
Jalen Thompson $1,260,000


2023 Salary Cap Space: $133,379,000 (Projected new TV deals will impact)

Kyler Murray 5th year extension $29,000,000

2024 Salary Cap Space $202,649,597 (Projected new TV deals will impact)

Kyler Murray 1st year franchise tag $35 million

2025 Only players current impacting the salary cap are due to pro rated bonuses so basically full cap -5.4 million

JJ Watt $2.4 million
Jordan Phillips $1.3 million
Rodney Hudson 1.76 million

Kyler Murray Second Franchise Tag $49 million

So what does this all mean with Kyler Murray and money?

He from 2023 - 2025 he is guaranteed $113 million dollars at MINIMUM if he plays well at all OR the Cardinals lose him with no compensation.

Conversely if you trade him you would net at $118.5 million cap savings over 4 years minimum. Unfortunately most QBs cost right in this area (Watson for instance) so it is basically a wash unless you tank and draft a new one again.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I consider these moves to be reasonable and likely to generate cap space:

Pre June 1st Cuts over 2 million

Devon Kennard $4,858,088

Cuts over 1 million

Andy Isabella $1,126,347

Restructures Max:

DeAndre Hopkins $10,786,667

JJ Watt $9,285,000

Budda Baker $6,643,33

Jordan Phillips $6,660,00

Extensions Max

Rodney Hudson: $7,784,000


So the Cardinals can generate about 40 million in cap space without extending Kyler. You have ample cap space in year 2 and especially year 3 to sign free agents.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The financial risk on an extension isn't high because the cap impact is going to be so high anyway. Unless you believe he completely flames out.

The real risk comes in compensation for a trade or to the player the longer this drags out. Either you will pay more to Kyler or get less in a trade. You aren't going to trade him if he is great but you will risk more money.

Based on the above numbers I see only three options. Keim and Kliff got their security so they have the freedom to be bold here:

#1. Try to go all in again. Extend Kyler to dispel the notion of a team that isn't stable. Do the cuts, restructures, and extensions mentioned above. Bring back all key offensive players. Copy the Rams and see what proven star you can get for your late first round or second round picks.

#2. Trade Murray and copy the above with another QB. You are talking about Watson, Tua, or Hurts

#3. Blow it up. Trade and cut all older veterans. Tank next season and start over in 2023 with a boatload of cap space. Trade back several times to acquire several low cost rookies on long term deals to pair with next rookie quarterback.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The absolute worst option is do nothing and pick up that massive 5th year option. Again then you are either looking at dumping him at even less compensation because he under performed and isn't worth the 29 million or he over performs and now you are paying a NFL record setting deal with the heightened salary cap from TV money.

If you have ANY doubts he isn't your franchise guy then you trade him now and pick from path 2 or 3.

 

[imaCafan]

Option #1 please. If they appear to be going "all in" and still finish .500ish I personally could stomach that much better than folding their hands with the "no cap space" excuse. Keep pushing it til they get it right!

 

[kerouac9]

We can't extend Isiah Simmons until he's completed his 3rd season.

 

[SoonerLou]

I consider these moves to be reasonable and likely to generate cap space:

Pre June 1st Cuts over 2 million

Devon Kennard $4,858,088

Cuts over 1 million

Andy Isabella $1,126,347

Restructures Max:

DeAndre Hopkins $10,786,667

JJ Watt $9,285,000

Budda Baker $6,643,33

Jordan Phillips $6,660,00

Extensions Max

Rodney Hudson: $7,784,000


So the Cardinals can generate about 40 million in cap space without extending Kyler. You have ample cap space in year 2 and especially year 3 to sign free agents.

Same agent as Kliff.

 

[gmabel830]

Same agent as Kliff.

The whole same agent thing is very overblown, IMO. If he has same agent as Kliff then he has same agent is Kyler. Is Kyler going turn down a massive contract offer because his agent tells him to because of cutting Devon Kennard? Of course not. Is Keim going to keep him just because he shares the same agent as Kliff if it's best for the team to move on? Of course not.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

We can't extend Isiah Simmons until he's completed his 3rd season.

Okay I will remove that thanks. I didn't see it as super reasonable anyway.

 

[Ronin]

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[gmabel830]

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For reference, we obviously aren't in good shape, but 10 teams are currently above the cap, some teams significantly over -- I'd rather be us than the Saints sitting at $44M over the cap, no solid answer at QB, and just having gone through a coaching change.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

We are in as good of cap space as we want to be.

If we don't spend money this off season we will know the reason Keim and Kliff were extended

 

[Russ Smith]

We are in as good of cap space as we want to be.

If we don't spend money this off season we will know the reason Keim and Kliff were extended

I would add if we don't spend money this offseason it will somewhat vindicate Kyler and his agent essentially demanding that the Cards show they're committed to winning.

Unless the plan is tank for 1 year load up on the draft and then go big next year, but I don't think that's our plan.

 

[Cheesebeef]

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I mean... how can you NOT give Keim a FIVE YEAR extension?

 

[LA Redbird]

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According to my bank account, I have more cap space than the Cards. Maybe I'll sign Chandler Jones myself and 1099 him to the Cards.

 

[QuebecCard]

The financial risk on an extension isn't high because the cap impact is going to be so high anyway. Unless you believe he completely flames out.

The real risk comes in compensation for a trade or to the player the longer this drags out. Either you will pay more to Kyler or get less in a trade. You aren't going to trade him if he is great but you will risk more money.

Based on the above numbers I see only three options. Keim and Kliff got their security so they have the freedom to be bold here:

#1. Try to go all in again. Extend Kyler to dispel the notion of a team that isn't stable. Do the cuts, restructures, and extensions mentioned above. Bring back all key offensive players. Copy the Rams and see what proven star you can get for your late first round or second round picks.

#2. Trade Murray and copy the above with another QB. You are talking about Watson, Tua, or Hurts

#3. Blow it up. Trade and cut all older veterans. Tank next season and start over in 2023 with a boatload of cap space. Trade back several times to acquire several low cost rookies on long term deals to pair with next rookie quarterback.

I'm more than inclined to believe that the plan put forward to MB by Keim and KK had nothing to do with either option #2 or #3. Hard to imagine their extensions if they walked into the office with the latter two options.

So... I'm all for number #1, but not inclined to give up the cost certainty of a #1 pick in a trade; #2, #3 and beyond I'm fine with.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

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The time stamp on this is 24 minutes after I did all this work.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I'm more than inclined to believe that the plan put forward to MB by Keim and KK had nothing to do with either option #2 or #3. Hard to imagine their extensions if they walked into the office with the latter two options.

So... I'm all for number #1, but not inclined to give up the cost certainty of a #1 pick in a trade; #2, #3 and beyond I'm fine with.

I pray there is a plan that isn't status quo

 

[QuebecCard]

I pray there is a plan that isn't status quo

Yes.

In passing, I note that HICKS has a March bonus of $750k. We'll know his future in short order.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I pray there is a plan that isn't status quo

Same.

I don't think there will be a status quo. I think we try to go all in again and give him an extension over the summer. I also think they want other QBs to get their deal first (Stafford) so that they don't have to 'set the market rate.'

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The Green Bay Packers have made a significant long-term contract offer to Aaron Rodgers that would alter the quarterback market, a source told ESPN.

Waiting on this is a BAD strategy. The new TV money is massive and the market is going to change quickly

 

[Chris_Sanders]

To explain altering the market Matt Ryan makes 48 million. To alter the market it's going to be 52 million (10% increase).

 

[kerouac9]

They can’t just run it back with the 2021 roster—there are too many high profile free agents. We’ll prolly be worse just at the time Kyler is trying to decide whether he wants to be with this team long-term.

 

[splitsecond]

For those of us too lazy and burnt out on numbers to do this sort of work, it is truly appreciated. @Chris_Sanders

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

The financial risk on an extension isn't high because the cap impact is going to be so high anyway. Unless you believe he completely flames out.

The real risk comes in compensation for a trade or to the player the longer this drags out. Either you will pay more to Kyler or get less in a trade. You aren't going to trade him if he is great but you will risk more money.

Based on the above numbers I see only three options. Keim and Kliff got their security so they have the freedom to be bold here:

#1. Try to go all in again. Extend Kyler to dispel the notion of a team that isn't stable. Do the cuts, restructures, and extensions mentioned above. Bring back all key offensive players. Copy the Rams and see what proven star you can get for your late first round or second round picks.

#2. Trade Murray and copy the above with another QB. You are talking about Watson, Tua, or Hurts

#3. Blow it up. Trade and cut all older veterans. Tank next season and start over in 2023 with a boatload of cap space. Trade back several times to acquire several low cost rookies on long term deals to pair with next rookie quarterback.

#3 Blow it all up. Then we still have Steve Keim making all those draft picks lol. His drafts are very sad but the worst part is he can't even identify the best OL & that's his college position for crying out loud lol