Cards Free Agent Budget - Long

[AntSports Steve]

Cards Free Agent Budget

Cap space left (From Joe's Spreadsheet) - $14,990,000 (includes Fitz current $14.5M base salary)

Probably Cuts :
Holt $3.50
Berry $4.00
Ross $2.80
Shipp $1.75
Cooper $0.90

Total Savings : $13.15

Cap Space after Cuts : ~$28.00


The Cards need use cap space for :
Dansby F-Tag $8.10
Rookie Pool $3.70
E.Green $1.30 2nd Round Tender
Pace $4.25 (or equalivent player)
Hodel $0.75
Vincent $1.00
Brown $1.85 RFA Tender
Smith $1.85 RFA Tender
Urban $0.85 RFA Tender
Merrit $0.85 RFA Tender (or simular player)
Punter $0.85

Total Used: $25.50 Million

Cap Space left $2.6M

So, without a reduction of Fitz's contract the Pace signing or equivently
player will be the Cards big FA signing.

Other notes :

Gandy : His base salary is around $3.5 (he already got his bonus). It's hard to find a
LT so cheap so do not expect him to redo his deal.

Dansby : I think Dansby plays on the 1 year franchise tag because the Cards are still worried
about his injury risk and will not offer up a large enough contract to convince
Dansby to sign a longterm deal. If he plays great, he'll get an extension mid
season.

Fitz : His $14.5M base salary for this year was bascily earned by him for making the probowl
twice. That probowl bonus inflates this years salary and cause problems for the Cards to
be able to restructure. His next years salary is even bigger, but the Cards, Fitz, and his
agent know he'll never actually see it. I think it's $17M next year and the Cards would cut
Fitz before ever paying that. It's going to be a big game of chicken. Fitz's $14.5M salary
is guarenteed once he makes the final roster cut. That's what some players dream of for
a signing bonus and it's only his base salary. He doesn't need a signing bonus because his
salary is so large. So, he could try to playout his contract and go for that $17M salary
next year. But if he tried, the Cards would push him on cancelling that contract and signing
a new one inline with the top WRs salarys (Currently $11M/year - S.Smith). Basicly the
Cards would try to get Fitzs to ignore that last year cause he would never get it. In the
end, if Fitz doesn't give in to a normal Top WR salary next year, the Cards would push it
until the final roster cuts and then cut Fitz to avoid paying that $17M. Fitz would then
be a free agent, but by then most teams would have spent most of their money and he would
get a subpar contract for 2009.


On the Cards management side of Fitzs contract, they can't redo this years deal easily.
If they do what everyone on this board says and give him huge upfront money to offset this
seasons $14.5M salary, the Cards will end up setting a new record high for a WR contract and
all the other WRs in the NFL would expect contracts like that, including Boldin. But
since that contract is really inflated by bonuses from previous years, it wouldn't be a fair
contract for all WRs to be based on. Because of this problem, Fitz will not get his
deal redone until next year. So, no cap savings now.

There might be a way out, something like give Fitz an $8M buyout of his rookie contract (or
whatever the bonus is worth for making the 2 probowls). That would closeout his rookie
contract. Then give him a contract like S.Smith's. Say, $60M over 5 years with some cap
savings up front and backload the last year to force a new contract after 4 (and to make
the new contract look good). Maybe Fitz gets $15M as a signing bonus. Note with the
buyout of $8M and signing bonus of $15M he ends up with $23M right away and the Cards
sign him to a Top WR contract that is inline with the rest of what the NFL is doing.
But, doing a contract like this would not save much off this years cap. $3M/year cap
hit for the signing bonus, plus $8M buyout is $11. Anything more that a $3.5 base salary
for his new 2008 contract ends up costing more on the cap. If you said a base of $2.0M
then all this contract work only saves you $1.5M. In the end, it's just easier to push
this contract talk off until next year. And that what I think will happen.

 

[Skkorpion]

Thanks, Steve. I read all the way through it. Not sure I buy some of your reasoning on the attempt to restructure and extend Fitz.

I don't think cutting him outright will ever happen. Trading him, if he won't deal with us, would be more likely, I think.

 

[AntSports Steve]

Yes, you are correct. The Cards would trade him during the next years offseason if they couldn't work out a new deal. I was really talking about him pushing to get his 2009 $17M contract as an extreme event.

If I'm right and they wait until next year, if he is reasonably healthy and does his usual great season, they should easily reach a new contract that's right in line with the top WR contract in the league.

 

[CorporalCardinal]

Well done, makes a ton of sense and I think you're right on. Nice job.

 

[Shane]

Kind of debunks what stout keeps claiming that even if we dont redo Fitz's deal that we can make a big splash in FA and that we have plenty of money.

 

[slanidrac16]

Good write up AntSports.Heres how I see it.

The Cards are going to pay Fitz somewhere in the range of 32 m over the next 2 years. This is not the best time of the contract to attempt a renegotiation of a long term deal.
First off , Fitz could get injured or have and injury plaqued season where he doesn't reach any of his bonus incentives which I believe would lower that 32m price tag a bit.
Secondly, if the Cards do absolutely nothing they could tag Fitzgerald for the 2010 and even 2011 season. I'm sure that would not make Fitz a happy camper. I'm not sure what the tag price is for a wr, but allow me to assume its 9 mil. When you take his total of his current contract of 32 mil and add 2 years of a franchise tag (18 mil) you have a total of 50 mil over 4 years or an average of about 12.5 mil a year, which is very much in line with the going rate.

That scenario is not good for the Cards NOW and not good for Fitz over the long haul because he would need to stay healthy. Therefore it doe behoove Fitz to re-do his contract for the better of the team and himself.

What I believe will happen is that nothing will get done this year. The Cards will bite the bullet , pay the 14.5 m this year and then attack this thing next year at this time.

However, for any possible agreement to be reached, the Cards would have to turn the final 2 year of his contract into gauranteed money( at least most of it) and extend him for an additional 3 years.

So, lets say 30m bonus with a base salary of 2m, 3m, 4m, 5m, and 10m in the final year. If my figures are right thats 5 years 54m with 30 gauranteed.
cap hits:
08-8m
09-9m
10-10m
11-11m
12-16m which at that time we would re-do another contract or severe ties and take a 6m cap hit.

Fitz gets gauranteed money , which is what all players want.
Cards get cap friendly hits for the next 4 years and relief this year to add a few more players for the 08 season.
With this arrangement it actually leaves room to keep Boldin happy a couple of years from now.
I could live with this.
I believe Fitz could live with this.
The real Question is can the Cards live with the thought of shelling out 30m gauranteed money?

 

[slanidrac16]

Yes, you are correct. The Cards would trade him during the next years offseason if they couldn't work out a new deal. I was really talking about him pushing to get his 2009 $17M contract as an extreme event.

If I'm right and they wait until next year, if he is reasonably healthy and does his usual great season, they should easily reach a new contract that's right in line with the top WR contract in the league.

All they need to do to get a contract done with Fitz is to gaurantee the money of his remaining contract. I think Fitz is smart enough to know he is one injury away from not seeing 1 penny more than this years 14.5 mil.

 

[AntSports Steve]

" The Cards are going to pay Fitz somewhere in the range of 32 m over the next 2 years."

slanidrac16, that's where we disagree. I do not think the Cards plan on paying that $17M salary in 2009. I think that salary was solely put into the contract to force a new deal and the Cards never planned to pay it and Fitz never expected to actual get paid it. It's sole purpose was to force a new deal.

I think the Cards will ignore that 2009 salary and just get him to agree to a new contract in line with the top WRs.

Current F-Tag for WRs : $7.848 million.

 

[joeshmo]

I think a new Fitz deal not only gets done this year, I think it gets done before free agency starts. 15 days and counting.

 

[Stout]

Kind of debunks what stout keeps claiming that even if we dont redo Fitz's deal that we can make a big splash in FA and that we have plenty of money.

All the more reason that the extension has to get done. I'm with Joe--the deal gets done, and before FA begins.

This is a lithmus test for Graves. He ducks and dodges through FA, banking on part of the fan base agreeing with his conservative approach. If he fails in this, though...well, it will truly be a monumentous failure that should cost him his job. It's a make-or-break. Like somebody else said in another thread...it's great for a salesman to make an excuse when he doesn't make a sale-the customer was unreasonable, they didn't want the product, etc-but the bottom line is, he has to make the sale. Bottom line: Graves has to get this deal done. Period.

 

[john h]

Thanks, Steve. I read all the way through it. Not sure I buy some of your reasoning on the attempt to restructure and extend Fitz.

I don't think cutting him outright will ever happen. Trading him, if he won't deal with us, would be more likely, I think.

New England uses a method as I read it of putting a value on each position no matter how good the guys is. With the exception of QB.

There comes a point you cannot afford to pay a guy 17 mil or 20 mil a year no matter how good he is. If you paid a guy like Bryant Johnson 7 mil or so a year vs paying Fitz 17 mil plus you would have 10 mil in money to go out and but some good players who in the long run may be of more help in getting into the playoffs. I would sure not want to lose Fitz but there are limits to all players salaries. A QB seems to be the only position that has almost an unlimited salary. What is a Brady or Manning worth? Football is a team sport where one great WR is not going to put you in the playoffs.

 

[slanidrac16]

" The Cards are going to pay Fitz somewhere in the range of 32 m over the next 2 years."

slanidrac16, that's where we disagree. I do not think the Cards plan on paying that $17M salary in 2009. I think that salary was solely put into the contract to force a new deal and the Cards never planned to pay it and Fitz never expected to actual get paid it. It's sole purpose was to force a new deal.

I think the Cards will ignore that 2009 salary and just get him to agree to a new contract in line with the top WRs.

Current F-Tag for WRs : $7.848 million.

I see your point. But truth be said, Fitz's contract is in place and as it stands the only incentive for him to re-do his contract THIS year is for more gauranteed money. Frankly, I don't see why a deal can't be struck. Doing it this year changes some of the dynamics compared to doing it this year.

The advantages of doing it this year is to IMPROVE the team to a greater degree for the 08 season. The FO , Fitz and his agent should all be open minded to that. Let's face it. Fitz needs to play his whole career with the Cardinals. The way to do that is to gaurantee money. Why wait until next year if you KNOW you will do it (or wanty to do it) next year. We can put this problem away today for the next 4 or 5 years if everybody collectively puts there heads together.

A team drafts a player hoping beyond all hope they are chosing a player that excels not only on the field but off the field. When a team finds that gem they have to understand the price for their success. Otherwise trade your top 3 picks every year and go from there.

 

[slanidrac16]

Cards Free Agent Budget

Cap space left (From Joe's Spreadsheet) - $14,990,000 (includes Fitz current $14.5M base salary)

Probably Cuts :
Holt $3.50
Berry $4.00
Ross $2.80
Shipp $1.75
Cooper $0.90

Total Savings : $13.15

Here's another thing. Why in the world would we wait to cut these players when that money could be used immediately to re-sign our players (like Pace) BEFORE free agency starts? Seems to me if I could eliminate a problem before it becomes a problem, i would do it.
We see other teams cutting players already. The whole world know Holt won't be back and there is no way in the world we pay Berry 4 mil next year.

 

[DoTheDew]

I kind of hope we aren't big players in free agency because there aren't very many good players out there that help us and because there aren't many, they will get overpaid. As joeshmo has stated before, it wont be until 2009, or 2010 that free agency starts getting quality players.

 

[HookemCards]

Good write up AntSports.Heres how I see it.

The Cards are going to pay Fitz somewhere in the range of 32 m over the next 2 years. This is not the best time of the contract to attempt a renegotiation of a long term deal.
First off , Fitz could get injured or have and injury plaqued season where he doesn't reach any of his bonus incentives which I believe would lower that 32m price tag a bit.
Secondly, if the Cards do absolutely nothing they could tag Fitzgerald for the 2010 and even 2011 season. I'm sure that would not make Fitz a happy camper. I'm not sure what the tag price is for a wr, but allow me to assume its 9 mil. When you take his total of his current contract of 32 mil and add 2 years of a franchise tag (18 mil) you have a total of 50 mil over 4 years or an average of about 12.5 mil a year, which is very much in line with the going rate.

That scenario is not good for the Cards NOW and not good for Fitz over the long haul because he would need to stay healthy. Therefore it doe behoove Fitz to re-do his contract for the better of the team and himself.

What I believe will happen is that nothing will get done this year. The Cards will bite the bullet , pay the 14.5 m this year and then attack this thing next year at this time.

However, for any possible agreement to be reached, the Cards would have to turn the final 2 year of his contract into gauranteed money( at least most of it) and extend him for an additional 3 years.

So, lets say 30m bonus with a base salary of 2m, 3m, 4m, 5m, and 10m in the final year. If my figures are right thats 5 years 54m with 30 gauranteed.
cap hits:
08-8m
09-9m
10-10m
11-11m
12-16m which at that time we would re-do another contract or severe ties and take a 6m cap hit.

Fitz gets gauranteed money , which is what all players want.
Cards get cap friendly hits for the next 4 years and relief this year to add a few more players for the 08 season.
With this arrangement it actually leaves room to keep Boldin happy a couple of years from now.
I could live with this.
I believe Fitz could live with this.
The real Question is can the Cards live with the thought of shelling out 30m gauranteed money?

I'm not positive but I think the franchise tag number is average of the top 5 at the position, or 110 percent raise if already in the top 5. Not positive on that, I'm sure Joe could clarify. I'd also prefer to do a longer deal than 5 (restructure after 4) if you he is going to get a 30 mil signing bonus.

 

[joeshmo]

I'm not positive but I think the franchise tag number is average of the top 5 at the position, or 110 percent raise if already in the top 5. Not positive on that, I'm sure Joe could clarify. I'd also prefer to do a longer deal than 5 (restructure after 4) if you he is going to get a 30 mil signing bonus.

It is 120%. Fitz tag amount if we just let things be would be the 17 Mill or what ever the base salary is his last year, cant look it up right now plus another 20%. His franchise tag tender would be over 20 Mill.

 

[HookemCards]

It is 120%. Fitz tag amount if we just let things be would be the 17 Mill or what ever the base salary is his last year, cant look it up right now plus another 20%. His franchise tag tender would be over 20 Mill.

Ok, thanks Joe, I knew it was something along those lines. So Fitz is essentially untaggable on his current contract. I really think the biggest problem with this offseason isn't going to be "cap space" but cash available for bonuses. After Fitz contract restructuring, and Dansby's new contract, the Bidwill's will be looking upward of 40 mil of guaranteed money to dish out. And then there is Pace and probably another 8 or so. Then if you want to add a big name free agent or two, another 15 to 20 mil. Thats always been the problem, the Bidwill's unwillingness or inability to pay enough guaranteed money. Hopefully 2 full seasons of sellouts will help with that.

 

[Stout]

Ok, thanks Joe, I knew it was something along those lines. So Fitz is essentially untaggable on his current contract. I really think the biggest problem with this offseason isn't going to be "cap space" but cash available for bonuses. After Fitz contract restructuring, and Dansby's new contract, the Bidwill's will be looking upward of 40 mil of guaranteed money to dish out. And then there is Pace and probably another 8 or so. Then if you want to add a big name free agent or two, another 15 to 20 mil. Thats always been the problem, the Bidwill's unwillingness or inability to pay enough guaranteed money. Hopefully 2 full seasons of sellouts will help with that.

Cash should never, ever be an excuse any more. That excuse died with the new stadium.

 

[HookemCards]

Cash should never, ever be an excuse any more. That excuse died with the new stadium.

I hope you're right.

 

[English on tour]

good read thanks

i really think we are couple of pick ups away from being playoff team, cant rely on the draft for that which means the fitz thing worries me a little. would hate to see him go though.

 

[slanidrac16]

It is 120%. Fitz tag amount if we just let things be would be the 17 Mill or what ever the base salary is his last year, cant look it up right now plus another 20%. His franchise tag tender would be over 20 Mill.

Wow, I did not remeber that. I assumed if the Cards just shelled out the final
two years of his current contract that they could tag him for the wr tag price.
Geez. This really puts Fitz in the drivers seat.
Well, back to my belief that we may as well throw a boatload of money at him right know an tie him up for the next 5 years.
I wonder if 5 years 54M with 30m gauranteed would get it done? If he wouldn't accept that, I'd have to wonder just a bit about where his head and heart is at.

 

[slanidrac16]

" The Cards are going to pay Fitz somewhere in the range of 32 m over the next 2 years."

slanidrac16, that's where we disagree. I do not think the Cards plan on paying that $17M salary in 2009. I think that salary was solely put into the contract to force a new deal and the Cards never planned to pay it and Fitz never expected to actual get paid it. It's sole purpose was to force a new deal.

I think the Cards will ignore that 2009 salary and just get him to agree to a new contract in line with the top WRs.

Current F-Tag for WRs : $7.848 million.

I'm sure the Cards will try to ignore that 17m salary in 09, but I don't think Fitz or PArker will.

 

[joeshmo]

I'm sure the Cards will try to ignore that 17m salary in 09, but I don't think Fitz or PArker will.

They will. They put that final year in there for the sole purpose of forcing a new deal for the purpose of forcing the team to give them more gauranteed money sooner rather then later. Agent, Player, and team all knew when they signed the deal that 6th year is a bogus year.

 

[john h]

Thanks, Steve. I read all the way through it. Not sure I buy some of your reasoning on the attempt to restructure and extend Fitz.

I don't think cutting him outright will ever happen. Trading him, if he won't deal with us, would be more likely, I think.

Just a thought but with our payroll and CAP space it seems we should have a better team? It appears we will start the season with all our money used up but not with a team that you could buy with such a payroll. What am I missing here? I once could blame the Bidwills for being cheap but that does not appear to be the problem unless they have found a secret way to hide money from us. We do not seem to have enough money to purchase any significant FA so as Denny once said we are what we think we are.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Bottom line: Graves has to get this deal done. Period.

I agree 100%.

Graves needs to get this done so we can continue to improve the team and not be handcuffed with Fitz's huge number.