CBS Projecting Murray Trade

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I guess it depends on what the definition of "successful" is for people. I think Kyler Murray -- even this version -- can win 9 games a season and sometimes 12 games in a season. Right now, in this form, Kyler Murray is a league-average quarterback. I check the DVOA write-ups on him each week and he lands somewhere in the middle third of the league.

I don't think that Murray can be the best quarterback in the NFL. But you don't need to be to keep a starting job -- or even to justify his salary cap number over the next few years. He has to be Kirk Cousins. That won't thrill me, but I think it will satisfy his coach, whose mentor Mike Zimmer had a difficult detante with Cousins for years.

Yeah this is an interesting thought exercise. I think we saw the kyler 12 win guy briefly, but I believe he’s dead and forever buried. Since one of you (can’t recall whom) pointed out that kyler isn’t a timing qb I haven’t been able to unsee the truth of the comment. He’s not. And that means the only plays to be made are when a receiver is wide open or kyler goes off script. The combination of those doesn’t bode well for sustainable success.

Cheese and I were discussing who were “one more year” qb’s that eventually hit big and really couldn’t conjure up one. We did think of a bunch of one more year guys (including cousins), but we think he’s below cousins. We dread the reality that’s he’s carr.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think at this point, the Cardinals pretty much have to. The cap hit for trading or releasing does get better with time. What sucks is looking at the cap hits for years if the Cardinals did trade Murray. The Cardinals would nearly lose the advantage of having a rookie QB contract because they would still have dead cap from Murray.

I get that. But if you’re getting better qb play, it’s worth it. Also, if you keep him for one more year and he’s the same as he is now you can kiss the current projected draft haul away. No one is trading three picks for yet another season of meh kyler play.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

This is why I think the best option is just focus on the supporting cast and waiting.

That’s where I’m landing. But I think I’d trade kyker to get whatever assets I could. Sign a young retread (like the bucs did with mayfield). And find your QBOF in another season or two. It sucks, but that’s where we are imo.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I get that. But if you’re getting better qb play, it’s worth it. Also, if you keep him for one more year and he’s the same as he is now you can kiss the current projected draft haul away. No one is trading three picks for yet another season of meh kyler play.

I just don't think the huge cap hit and subsequent lack of roster improvements throughout the roster are worth it at this point.

Murray is kind of set up to fail right now. As much as I like Wilson's potential (if he stays healthy), Murray doesn't really have a Wr to lean on. I think you improve the WR room, the OL, and RB depth, and then spend everything else on defense and hope Murray can play better next year.

 

[Krangodnzr]

That’s where I’m landing. But I think I’d trade kyker to get whatever assets I could. Sign a young retread (like the bucs did with mayfield). And find your QBOF in another season or two. It sucks, but that’s where we are imo.

Even with the lowest of cap hits (post June 1 cut), the teams ability to sign free agents will be reduced dramatically. Long term, it still might be better to move on but the reality is that I don't think we can stomach ANOTHER season where the plan is to build later.

 

[slanidrac16]

I just question our collective sanity if we truly believe (verses hope) that any quarterback that we’re “sticking with for one more year” is a long term answer. Has any franchise that thinks that way about their quarterback ever been proven right in doing so?

I think of guys like Tannenhil, Wentz, Folk and others that appeared to be the guy.
Now there will be a response to that with” You’re not comparing Kyler with those guys”.
Yes I am. Athletically Kyler is superior but that doesn’t mean he is a great qb. He is being asked to “ learn” the Qb position all over again. He’s nervous as a bowl of jello in the pocket. He’s late on reads and throws. Yes occasionally he makes a spectacular play but he is far from “steady” and calm.

I’m trying to understand the lack of talent as an argument. But when I watch other qbs there is a sense of calm. They set up, nothing there, they calmly turn and throw to their outlet. Kyler doesn’t do that.

I’ve resigned myself to the fact that Kyler will be our starting qb. My guess by this time next year we’ll be sitting at 6 wins with some unreal mathematical chance to make the playoffs and most of us hoping we lose out for a better qb, calling for MO and Gannons heads.

 

[Dan H]

That’s where I’m landing. But I think I’d trade kyker to get whatever assets I could. Sign a young retread (like the bucs did with mayfield). And find your QBOF in another season or two. It sucks, but that’s where we are imo.

#UnfortunateAutocucumber

 

[slanidrac16]

Another thought.

Did Bidwill hire MO and JG because they convinced him that Kyler was their guy and would return him to star status.
Did Payton or any other candidate) maybe not share the same views and confidence in Murray.

MO an JG sure have gone out of their way to show support for Kyler. Maybe the truth is there’s NO WAY they can move off of Kyler. Let’s face it, Bidwill would not be happy nor probably agree to trade Kyler which would net him zero return on millions of dollars. Business men don’t operate that way. He’s already paying two coaching staffs and two GM’s.

When you look at things from this angle, Kyler isn’t going anywhere and may still be here in 2025 even if he totally sucks.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I just don't think the huge cap hit and subsequent lack of roster improvements throughout the roster are worth it at this point.

Murray is kind of set up to fail right now. As much as I like Wilson's potential (if he stays healthy), Murray doesn't really have a Wr to lean on. I think you improve the WR room, the OL, and RB depth, and then spend everything else on defense and hope Murray can play better next year.

We are “hoping” a QB plays better in his SIXTH season. That’s a fools errand imo.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Even with the lowest of cap hits (post June 1 cut), the teams ability to sign free agents will be reduced dramatically. Long term, it still might be better to move on but the reality is that I don't think we can stomach ANOTHER season where the plan is to build later.

If we stink either way I’d at least like to know we are moving forward in the next era instead of clinging to vestiges of the last failed era. Sucking is sucking.

 

[Fitz4Ever]

If we could get off his contract and get a 2nd and 3rd...done deal. Let this front office live or die with their chosen guy

 

[Russ Smith]

The dude is a glorified Buffalo Bills fan and cold plunge enthusiast...Need I say more?

If you look at his X page in 2021 he was saying the Eagles were trading with the Texans to get DeShaun Watson due to sources.

Not saying he made it up, just saying he's been wrong before.

 

[GatorAZ]

I’d move on from a 5’10” QB who doesn’t use his legs nearly as much as he should if there was a better option available which I don’t think there is. We’re kinda stuck hoping better talent raises his game but at the end of the day he’s still an undersized QB with poor footwork.

 

[Mark22]

If we could get off his contract and get a 2nd and 3rd...done deal. Let this front office live or die with their chosen guy

And what about the $80 million dead money hit?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

There are a litany of issues with this team. Kyler Murray is in the teens of issues.

Any trade for him must include a future first or it's just a mobius strip of mediocrity

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Mayes is an incredibly volatile stock for a Justin Herbert ceiling

 

[Cards Crazy]

While Ime 100% in the move on category another train of thought if you will. Brady, Montana, Purdy and quite a few others over the years were drafted in later rounds Heavens Warner wasnt drafted at all as some others have been also bottom line You can find good to Great QB's all over If your Scouting Department is Good Enough

 

[TheCardFan]

Right now, in this form, Kyler Murray is a league-average quarterback. I don't think that Murray can be the best quarterback in the NFL
But you don't need to be to keep a starting job -- or even to justify his salary cap number over the next few years.

I agree with the first part of your assessment but strongly disagree on the last part.

He certainly has to justify his cap number. We can get "league average QB production" from guys that are getting paid 50% (veteran) to 20% (rookie) of his current contract.

Comparing him to Kirk Cousins (who has been surrounded by talent and still couldn't win) -
Kirk was the 15th highest paid QB (AAV) this year.
Kyler was 6th highest paid.
Kyler is getting paid more (AAV) than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Mathew Stafford, Dak Prescott, and Jared Goff.

The only reason to keep Murray is if you think he can get back to an elite franchise QB level.

 

[TheCardFan]

I think at this point, the Cardinals pretty much have to. The cap hit for trading or releasing does get better with time. What sucks is looking at the cap hits for years if the Cardinals did trade Murray. The Cardinals would nearly lose the advantage of having a rookie QB contract because they would still have dead cap from Murray.

We could decide to take it all in 2024 or split it up between 24 and 25.

Either way, you will only significantly impact 1 year of rookie contract.

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You will basically eat close to $50M but will gain $200M in cap savings over the next 4 years.

 

[TheCardFan]

And what about the $80 million dead money hit?

It's not 80M unless you cut him

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[TheCardFan]

I check the DVOA write-ups on him each week and he lands somewhere in the middle third of the league.

Just curious - can you post the graph?

Wondering who else is in the middle third and above vs what they are making per year.

 

[CardNots]

Yeah this is an interesting thought exercise. I think we saw the kyler 12 win guy briefly, but I believe he’s dead and forever buried. Since one of you (can’t recall whom) pointed out that kyler isn’t a timing qb I haven’t been able to unsee the truth of the comment. He’s not. And that means the only plays to be made are when a receiver is wide open or kyler goes off script. The combination of those doesn’t bode well for sustainable success.

Cheese and I were discussing who were “one more year” qb’s that eventually hit big and really couldn’t conjure up one. We did think of a bunch of one more year guys (including cousins), but we think he’s below cousins. We dread the reality that’s he’s carr.

nasty pill to sallow

 

[CardNots]

That’s where I’m landing. But I think I’d trade kyker to get whatever assets I could. Sign a young retread (like the bucs did with mayfield). And find your QBOF in another season or two. It sucks, but that’s where we are imo.

The odds of this are so low I’d just focus on building a good team.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Pretty sure whatever the Cardinals do will be the wrong decision

This is the way

 

[BullheadCardFan]

The thing with KM is if we give him another season to see if he can improve with an improved surrounding cast and he looks the same

Then we might be drafting in a 8-12 position with a few more wins and the best QB's will be in the top 5

They we have to use multiple draft picks to move up or sign another retread

Crippling the ability to build the trenches and other positions

And the cycle continues

We've seen really good KM and really bad KM

Some are saying he could be middle ground

I think that DC's have figured him out and game plan against him

That along with the throws that are way off target

Tough decisions to make this off-season for the FO

My heart wants him to succeed, but my mind and business side say it's time to move on for the betterment of the team