http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=FreeAgents-080629
Updated: July 27
It's been almost a month since NBA teams could begin negotiating with free agents. The unrestricted free agents went quickly.
Baron Davis stunned us by agreeing to a five-year, $65 million deal with the Clippers. Then, Elton Brand one-upped his buddy by bolting the Clippers for a five-year deal with the Sixers. Then, Corey Maggette bolted the Clippers for the Warriors, agreeing to a five-year deal worth about $50 million.
So much for the sleepy, uneventful free-agency period we predicted. Only a handful of free agents have agreed to re-sign with their teams. Gilbert Arenas agreed to a huge, six-year, $111 million deal with the Wizards. Jose Calderon quickly agreed to re-up with the Raptors. And Beno Udrih agreed to a five-year, $33 million deal to remain with the Kings.
However, the restricted free agents have struggled to get deals done. So much so that the first significant restricted free-agent deal had Josh Childress bolting the Hawks for Greece.
That move has scared a few teams into making deals. The Warriors have reportedly wrapped up both Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins. But the top-tier restricted free agents are still looking for big deals. The chances of their bolting to Europe are slim, leaving their teams with maximum leverage.
Only one team -- the Grizzlies -- has any real cap room. But it appears that the team isn't going to use it to pry away a restricted free agent. So … restricted free agents have three options:
1. They can take the one-year qualifying offer and become unrestricted free agents next summer.
2. They can sign for a "market value" deal that is probably far less money than they think they're worth.
3. They can push for a sign-and-trade to another team.
All three options are pretty unappealing at this point. Option 1 puts a lot of pressure and risk on the free agent. Option 2 would mean that players like Andre Iguodala, Luol Deng and Emeka Okafor sign for less money than the extensions they turned down last summer. Option 3 is tricky because of league trade rules that make most restricted free agents base-year compensation players (meaning their salaries are very difficult to trade).
Here's a look at who's left on the market:
Group I: Restricted free agents
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Smith
1. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3834"]Josh Smith[/URL], Hawks: Smith drew a lot of interest from the Sixers, Clippers and Warriors. However, now that all three teams are out of cap space, he's stuck in the same boat with everyone else. He's a freakish athlete who can score, rebound and block shots. What holds him back is his questionable attitude.
Right now Smith is pushing for a sign-and-trade out of Atlanta. It sounds like the Hawks might be open to such a move, but sign-and-trades are notoriously difficult to pull off.
2. Andre Iguodala, Sixers: Iguodala's decision to turn down a $57 million deal last summer is tough to justify. At the time, the Sixers appeared to be the only team with significant cap room; I'm not sure where he thought his next paycheck would come from. Now that Elton Brand is on board, you know the Sixers don't want to lose him. But with no viable competing offers, they aren't giving away the farm, either. This one is at a standoff currently.
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Okafor
3. Emeka Okafor, Bobcats: Okafor turned down $13 million per season to hit free agency this summer. He's not the best player on this list, but he's the best young center on the market and one of the few guys in the league who's a lock to average a double-double. It sounds as if the Bobcats are open to a sign-and-trade if the right deal were to come along.
4. Luol Deng, Bulls: Everyone loves Deng's talent, including the Bulls. At least they used to. Injuries and a poor season have hurt his value around the league. Still, it's hard to see the Bulls not matching any offer Deng gets next summer. He declined a $57.5 million extension in October, so if he makes more than that, he'll come out ahead. It will be interesting to see whether the budget-conscious Bulls will take advantage of the market conditions and offer him much less.
Deng looks like the best candidate to take the one-year tender and try his luck again next summer. The Blazers will have loads of cap room next year, and they are very high on Deng.
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Gordon
5. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3820"]Ben Gordon[/URL], Bulls: Of all the players who turned down lucrative contract extensions last summer, Gordon made the most mind-boggling decision. He turned down a five-year, $50 million deal that seemed above market value on a down season.
For him to recoup that money this summer seems almost impossible. And now that the Bulls have added Derrick Rose and Larry Hughes to the mix, it's no longer clear where Gordon fits into the picture.
There isn't a huge market for undersized 2-guards who have streaky jump shots. Gordon might be better off taking the Bulls' one-year tender offer or looking to Europe for a similar deal to Childress'.
6. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3622"]Nenad Krstic[/URL], Nets: Before his knee injury last season, Krstic looked to be locked up by the Nets. Now the Nets are cutting payroll, and the uncertainty about his health has hurt his value. He's a likely candidate for a sign-and-trade if the Nets can get anything of value. He also is a legit candidate to bolt the NBA for Europe.
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Williams
7. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3971"]Louis Williams[/URL], Sixers: Williams is trapped in the same scenario as Iguodala. He draws a lot of interest around the league, but he can't find a team with cap room to make him an offer. He, too, may be better off taking the one-year tender.
8. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3835"]J.R. Smith[/URL], Nuggets: Smith's sharpshooting skills are in high demand, but he's been labeled a difficult player, which has hurt his stock around the league. Right now he'd settle for a midlevel deal from a team. At this point, I'm not sure the Nuggets, in cost-cutting mode, would match.
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West
9. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3841"]Delonte West[/URL], Cavaliers: West overplayed his hand with the Cavs when his camp leaked that he was being hotly pursued by a European team. Turns out the report was bogus, and now the Cavs, notoriously tough negotiators, have the upper hand.
10. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4309"]Carl Landry[/URL], Rockets: Landry was a big surprise last year. His toughness and rebounding make him a valuable role player ... but given his lack of size, how much is he worth?
Other notables: Robert Swift, Oklahoma City; Dorell Wright, Heat.
Group II: Unrestricted free agents
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Brown
1. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3511"]Kwame Brown[/URL], Grizzlies: The former No. 1 pick has run out of excuses. Yes, he's huge, athletic and only 25 years old. But after seven years in the league, he has yet to prove that he's anything more than a backup. Someone will pay him something, but no one expects much.
2. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3264"]Ricky Davis[/URL], Heat: The talented but troubled swingman hasn't helped his cause in his second tour with Miami. Pat Riley thought, after dumping him the first time, that Davis finally had the maturity to play for him. But Riley clearly is reassessing the situation. Davis looks like a midlevel-or-below type of player. I doubt he'll return to the Heat.
3. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3821"]Shaun Livingston[/URL], Clippers: He has amazing talent, but will he ever recover from that horrific knee injury he suffered in 2007? With the Clippers using all of their money on Baron Davis, someone might try to roll the dice.
4. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3585"]Carlos Arroyo[/URL], Magic: Arroyo isn't a sexy name, but the market has a shortage of point guards, and Arroyo was more than adequate as a backup in Orlando last season.
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Giricek
5. Gordon Giricek, Suns: He's a high-volume scorer and shooter who has always struggled to adapt to a role player in the NBA. He's another strong candidate to head overseas if he can't get a deal to his liking.
6. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3618"]Kareem Rush[/URL], Pacers: He turned his career around in Indiana last year, only to lose his job to his little brother, Brandon. He should find a lower-level deal somewhere.
7. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3660"]Jannero Pargo[/URL], Hornets: He's a credible backup point guard who can put the ball in the basket. His ability to deliver some firepower off the bench should land him a deal somewhere.
8. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3250"]Jason Williams[/URL], Heat: White Chocolate isn't a hot flavor anymore, but he is a veteran point guard who can still give a team 15 to 20 minutes a night. It's hard to believe his career might be over.
9. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2628"]Juwan Howard[/URL], Mavs: The consummate veteran should be able to find a P.J. Brown-type role on a team somewhere in the league. At this point he's playing for a championship, not money.
10. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3364"]Francisco Elson[/URL], Oklahoma City: He's a big man with a pulse, and since the Nuggets brought back Chris Andersen, he can't return home to Denver.
Other notables: Alonzo Mourning, Heat; Robert Horry, Spurs; Michael Finley, Spurs; Damon Stoudamire, Spurs; Sam Cassell, Celtics; Jamaal Magloire, Nets; Michael Doleac, Timberwolves; Quinton Ross, Clippers; Fred Jones, Knicks; Juan Dixon, Pistons; Theo Ratliff, Pistons; Adonal Foyle, Magic; Kirk Snyder, Timberwolves; David Harrison, Pacers; Walter Herrmann, Pistons; Salim Stoudamire, Hawks; Mickael Gelabale, Oklahoma City; Randolph Morris, Knicks.
