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When you say that Nash would have to lead this team to the finals for him to be in the MVP conversation, what do you mean? I'm trying to reconcile this argument without throwing out the fact that MVP voting is held a month and a half before the Finals. In the last 7 years, the MVP has only led his team to the Finals one time - and even then, that team (the Lakers) lost to the Celtics.
My bad, I left out a word. I meant to say that "I can, however, think of a scenario that gets him the award THE next year". IOW, if he were to have an obvious MVP type season that culminated in us making it to the finals that it would do away with the overrated label that has followed him these past few years. It wouldn't help him this season but it would give him a chance the following year.
I could understand you saying the chance of gas dropping to 30 cents/gallon is higher than Nash winning MVP, but you believe that if Nash ends up actually deserving the award that there is a zero percent chance of him winning the award. I think Karl Malone won the award in 1996-97 even though MJ was probably more deserving, but other than that, I don't see an instance where you could put any deliberate consideration into this argument and still arrive at this conclusion.
Barkley also won it in a year that if it stood solely by itself would have seen MJ win it. But that has nothing to do with my point. Since Nash won it the second time there has been a lot of talk about him having not deserved the award. MUCH MORE than has ever occurred with any other MVP winner in my lifetime. You must have heard the oft repeated comments about him being the only MVP to have never played in the finals. Or how about the one about him having played in the most playoff games without making it to the finals.
These are not so veiled shots at Nash and are often used to justify the claim that he would not have won it if he weren't white. Whether that's true has little bearing on the scrutiny the voters would be under if they were to name him MVP a 3rd time without overwhelming evidence that it was justified. And, again, I don't believe that can happen without him first making it to the finals.
All of this is moot however, as I don't believe Nash has it in him to play at that level for a full season. Especially since he's likely to be double teamed frequently in addition to the physical play that always wears him down. He'll get his assists although perhaps not like last year. Actually, I think all his numbers will go down a bit except wins, which will go down considerably.
Steve