Could our WR be better than last year?

[kerouac9]

Just to make this clear: The Week 1 starting three WRs need to have combined stats after 29 (9 DB, 8 Mar Tay, 12 Frank) combined games of 87 rec/1162 yds/4 TDs. If the Week 1 starting 3 WRs go down due to injury, the bet is defaulted, and I win.

As for completing 300 passes this season, I'd be surprised. To be successful, I'd say we'd be a power running team, and should be in the bottom half of the league in attempts. We were in the bottom half last season, with 548. Say we attempt the same amount of passes (I hope not). That's 34 atts per game. If Blake meets his career completion percentage (and I doubt it with this WR corps), that's 309 completions this season. I doubt more than 85 percent of those go to WRs, so that's 263 total rectps by WRs. We'll probably play a lot of guys, since they're all right now in the same nebulous world of mediocrity and potential, so unless someone takes over early... I don't know where I'm going here.

 

[kerouac9]

An improved running game should reduce the amount of pass attempts, since there'll be more runs.

You pass all the time when you're down big and need to get back in games, at least if you're trying to win them...

 

[Tangodnzr]

You know Kerouac, reading your comments here in regard to your "negotiating" your bet cracks me up.

I think they could start a new sitcom just for you called "Weaselmania". Are you studying to be an attorney when you grow up?

 

[40yearfan]

Originally posted by kerouac9
Just to make this clear: The Week 1 starting three WRs need to have combined stats after 29 (9 DB, 8 Mar Tay, 12 Frank) combined games of 87 rec/1162 yds/4 TDs. If the Week 1 starting 3 WRs go down due to injury, the bet is defaulted, and I win.

As for completing 300 passes this season, I'd be surprised. To be successful, I'd say we'd be a power running team, and should be in the bottom half of the league in attempts. We were in the bottom half last season, with 548. Say we attempt the same amount of passes (I hope not). That's 34 atts per game. If Blake meets his career completion percentage (and I doubt it with this WR corps), that's 309 completions this season. I doubt more than 85 percent of those go to WRs, so that's 263 total rectps by WRs. We'll probably play a lot of guys, since they're all right now in the same nebulous world of mediocrity and potential, so unless someone takes over early... I don't know where I'm going here.

<p>C'mon kerouac9----what kind of a bet is that? What difference does it make who the receivers are as long as you use the top 3 and add their totals together? Injury don't count!!!

 

[kerouac9]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
<p>C'mon kerouac9----what kind of a bet is that? What difference does it make who the receivers are as long as you use the top 3 and add their totals together? Injury don't count!!!

Sure it does. Freddie Jones was really our #1 reciever last season. Do we count him? People talk about DB's contributions as if he'd played the entire season and was just bad. If the 3 starting WRs fail to complete 29 total games, then that's a loss. That definately means they were worse than last year's Week 1 starters.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Originally posted by kerouac9
Sure it does. Freddie Jones was really our #1 reciever last season. Do we count him? People talk about DB's contributions as if he'd played the entire season and was just bad. If the 3 starting WRs fail to complete 29 total games, then that's a loss. That definately means they were worse than last year's Week 1 starters.

Well even when David did play last year, he was far from good. 33 catches, with 10 drops, and one touchdown in seven games.....

 

[kerouac9]

Originally posted by Krangthebrain
Well even when David did play last year, he was far from good. 33 catches, with 10 drops, and one touchdown in seven games.....

We've gone around and around on this all day, Krang, and I'm not going to get into it with you again...

 

[Chaz]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Could our WR be better than last year?

Originally posted by Russ Smith

I still say Jones was a victim of Jake

Agreed.
I think Jake is gun shy about throwing down the middle (I wonder why ). He likes those sideline fades when he has a big target like Moore or Boston. Talent wise the Cards have one of the best TE in the league. He should get more looks next season for sure.

I would love to see the Cards get a vet WR at some point. Not even to be a starter maybe, but to help the young players along. If they get someone at the end of their career they need to have the right attitude. After the WR hype last summer at least the expectations are low.

Maybe Freeman? I don't know what kind of guy he is.

 

[40yearfan]

Originally posted by kerouac9
Sure it does. Freddie Jones was really our #1 reciever last season. Do we count him? People talk about DB's contributions as if he'd played the entire season and was just bad. If the 3 starting WRs fail to complete 29 total games, then that's a loss. That definately means they were worse than last year's Week 1 starters.

<p>It also means that you just stacked the deck completely in your favor. All you need is for one receiver to stub his toe and miss one week and you win the bet. Do you think that's a fair bet? A bet usually consists of two sides having an equal opportunity to win. Instead of 50/50, you've just increased your odds to 80/20. I know I wouldn't take a sucker bet like that.

 

[kerouac9]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
<p>It also means that you just stacked the deck completely in your favor. All you need is for one receiver to stub his toe and miss one week and you win the bet. Do you think that's a fair bet? A bet usually consists of two sides having an equal opportunity to win. Instead of 50/50, you've just increased your odds to 80/20. I know I wouldn't take a sucker bet like that.

No, the bet is 29 appearances. If one WR goes down in week 1, the other 2 WRs need to play a combined 28 games (or through Week 14) to stay in contention.

 

[Goldfield]

All this over some Cardinal cool-aid...

 

[cardpa]

I think Blake will make the WRs better than Jake ever could. Besides now the ball will get thrown over the entire field from sideline to sideline and not just one side and never down the middle ala Jake. The ability of Blake being able to see the entire field alone will make for a better passing game. I think the numbers will exceed last years simply because Blake will get the ball into the WRs hands more often and on stride more than that ex-QB did.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Jones the only victim?

Yes, Freddie Jones was a victim of Jake Plummer. So was Boston, Jenkins, Sanders, Shipp, Jones, Gilmore, Kasper, the fans, the defense, etc., etc.

Now Denver is the victim. And I will say it again it won't be hard to out do the recieving core from last year cause injury or not they sucked!

 

[Russ Smith]

Originally posted by cardpa
I think Blake will make the WRs better than Jake ever could. Besides now the ball will get thrown over the entire field from sideline to sideline and not just one side and never down the middle ala Jake. The ability of Blake being able to see the entire field alone will make for a better passing game. I think the numbers will exceed last years simply because Blake will get the ball into the WRs hands more often and on stride more than that ex-QB did.

Well that's my impression too but I found these ESPN split numbers interesting. Jake last year.

Left sideline 53-118 44.9% 5.49 YPA
Left side 57-85 67.1% 6.51 YPA
Middle 44-62 71% 8.13 YPA
Right side 63-120 52.5% 5.40 YPA
Right sideline54-118 45.8%4.13 YPA

The obvious conclusion is his weak arm makes sideline throws a LOT tougher for him so he really SHOULD be throwing over the middle more not less.

Blake's splits are much more consistent although as I'd expect with all QB's his numbers fall off on the sideline throws, it's a longer throw it's harder to do, but he does it better than Jake does and he's pretty effective over the middle too. Jake's 71% to me reflects that he's always made a living throwing over the middel in big losses against prevents.

The one really "scary" stat on Blake is his 4th quarter performance his numbers REALLY fell off last year, 49% and only 5.62YPA, don't see the Ravens enough to know if they were constantly playing catchup it doesn't appear to be the case. It does appear Jake is a better 4th quarter QB than Blake but I'd much rather take a guy who plays well early in the games and Blake has done so in his career(22 first quarter TD's compared to only 9 for Jake).
You win NFL games from ahead not behind.

I'm still very excited to see what Blake can do I think he'll have a big impact on Freddie Jones.

 

[Stout]

Re: Jones the only victim?

Originally posted by RugbyMuffin
Yes, Freddie Jones was a victim of Jake Plummer. So was Boston, Jenkins, Sanders, Shipp, Jones, Gilmore, Kasper, the fans, the defense, etc., etc.

Now Denver is the victim. And I will say it again it won't be hard to out do the recieving core from last year cause injury or not they sucked!

Yeah, I'm telling folks to lay off Shannon Sharpe in fantasy football. He was my feature TE last year, and he's still good, but Jake constantly fails to check down to the TE and can't find them in the end zone!

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
<p>It also means that you just stacked the deck completely in your favor. All you need is for one receiver to stub his toe and miss one week and you win the bet. Do you think that's a fair bet? A bet usually consists of two sides having an equal opportunity to win. Instead of 50/50, you've just increased your odds to 80/20. I know I wouldn't take a sucker bet like that.

not to take sides here, but do you always strive to enter into bets that have 50/50 outcomes? i certainly wouldn't. i wouldn't make a bet unless i was at least 60% or more certain i was gonna win.

 

[JeffGollin]

It shouldn't be hard to top 3 injured players (Boston, Jenkins, Gilmore).

But we're replacing them with a huge unknown quantity - a WR corps consisting of three second year players and a couple of draft picks plus three UDFA's and Foster.

I agree with the comment that on balance they should play better if for no other reason than Blake (hopefully behind a healthy O-Line which we didn't have last year) will be throwing to them.

But we really won't know what we have until after at least a few preseason games.

 

[Chaz]

Originally posted by Russ Smith
Well that's my impression too but I found these ESPN split numbers interesting. Jake last year.

Left sideline 53-118 44.9% 5.49 YPA
Left side 57-85 67.1% 6.51 YPA
Middle 44-62 71% 8.13 YPA
Right side 63-120 52.5% 5.40 YPA
Right sideline54-118 45.8%4.13 YPA

Interesting numbers indeed.

Most of those passes are prob crossing patterns or slants to the WR in front of the safeties not vertical patterns to challenge safeties.
I seem to remember 1 to Jenkins for 60+ TD on a slant or quick post. That had to boost the average a little.

Yea. you will not see Plummer throwing a lot of 15 yd out patterns.

 

[Goldfield]

Originally posted by Russ Smith
Well that's my impression too but I found these ESPN split numbers interesting. Jake last year.

Left sideline 53-118 44.9% 5.49 YPA
Left side 57-85 67.1% 6.51 YPA
Middle 44-62 71% 8.13 YPA
Right side 63-120 52.5% 5.40 YPA
Right sideline54-118 45.8%4.13 YPA

The obvious conclusion is his weak arm makes sideline throws a LOT tougher for him so he really SHOULD be throwing over the middle more not less.

Blake's splits are much more consistent although as I'd expect with all QB's his numbers fall off on the sideline throws, it's a longer throw it's harder to do, but he does it better than Jake does and he's pretty effective over the middle too. Jake's 71% to me reflects that he's always made a living throwing over the middel in big losses against prevents.

The one really "scary" stat on Blake is his 4th quarter performance his numbers REALLY fell off last year, 49% and only 5.62YPA, don't see the Ravens enough to know if they were constantly playing catchup it doesn't appear to be the case. It does appear Jake is a better 4th quarter QB than Blake but I'd much rather take a guy who plays well early in the games and Blake has done so in his career(22 first quarter TD's compared to only 9 for Jake).
You win NFL games from ahead not behind.

I'm still very excited to see what Blake can do I think he'll have a big impact on Freddie Jones.

Nobody will argue that Jake isnt a good 4th qtr QB. We all know that that is his quarter... But his number are gunna be higher since 90% of the time he was trying to make a comback, and was hardley ever sitting on a lead...


Blake will be a very solid improvment form his consistancy alone...

 

[Russ Smith]

Originally posted by SirChaz
Interesting numbers indeed.

Most of those passes are prob crossing patterns or slants to the WR in front of the safeties not vertical patterns to challenge safeties.
I seem to remember 1 to Jenkins for 60+ TD on a slant or quick post. That had to boost the average a little.

Yea. you will not see Plummer throwing a lot of 15 yd out patterns.

Hopefully Blake will be able to exploit the middle more but last year Jake actually had a higher % and a higher YPA over the middle than Blake. My off the cuff answer to why is Jake played in more mopup, prevent defense situations where the middle is wide open, but I don't watch the Ravens enough to know how often Blake was in that situation himself.

Every QB in the NFL falls off % and YPA going to the sidelines because it's such a long throw with few exceptions. I looked up Bledsoe who I believe is about as good a thrower as there is and he's pretty amazing at it, 54% but 8.26 YPA left sideline, 56% 5.16 right sideline. No idea why he's so much better throwing left intuitively I would think the opposite.

But there's no question that a stronger arm allows you to work the field more.

Anybody else remember when Boomer was here how teams were stacking the middle because they knew he no longer had the arm to throw the sideline patterns? He had some really big catch and run plays on plays where he got the ball there to the sideline, but he had a lot of picks too which is what the D was counting on.

Blake is certainly not a GREAT QB but I do expect we'll be able to do some things in the passing game next year we haven't been able to do the previous 6.

 

[Goldfield]

Originally posted by Russ Smith


Blake is certainly not a GREAT QB but I do expect we'll be able to do some things in the passing game next year we haven't been able to do the previous 6.

Like spirals?

 

[40yearfan]

Originally posted by PHXSPORTS4LIFE
not to take sides here, but do you always strive to enter into bets that have 50/50 outcomes? i certainly wouldn't. i wouldn't make a bet unless i was at least 60% or more certain i was gonna win.

<p>When you're betting on something like this, the only way to put the odds in your favor is to narrow the rules down to where they favor your side. That's what kerouac9 did in this instance. The original bet didn't get this specific and would have been more even without narrowing the rules. As far as your betting only when you are 60% or more certain, do you than give odds to even the bet out. If not, you will be hard pressed to find a fool to bet with you.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
<p>When you're betting on something like this, the only way to put the odds in your favor is to narrow the rules down to where they favor your side. That's what kerouac9 did in this instance. The original bet didn't get this specific and would have been more even without narrowing the rules. As far as your betting only when you are 60% or more certain, do you than give odds to even the bet out. If not, you will be hard pressed to find a fool to bet with you.

not true - just make a bet with Section 11 - HAHAHAHAHA!

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

that's why, other than vegas, i tend not to be a betting man. vegas makes my rules, as well as my morals, go right out the window!

 

[AzCards21]

Originally posted by PHXSPORTS4LIFE
that's why, other than vegas, i tend not to be a betting man. vegas makes my rules, as well as my morals, go right out the window!

I thought you had to surrender any morals you had on the first day of law school!