Curious About Brown

[RON_IN_OC]

His contract with a good season slots in around 19-20 mil per season (the Diontae Johnson, DJ Moore range). You paying that?

IDK...If they draft MHJ, they have him on his rookie deal, so it's not like you have a super expensive WR room for a few years...and if Murray performs, you're not eating any of his contract, while also paying Williams, or whomever they draft/sign to replace Kyler. It may not be ideal, but it could still easily fit the budget. When MHJ is ready for a possible extension, then Brown would likely need to be addressed.

To add...IMO, this team will be winning meaningful games a whole lot faster with a good to great Murray, Brown and MHJ, than having to start over with MHJ and Williams.

 

[Chopper0080]

IDK...If they draft MHJ, they have him on his rookie deal, so it's not like you have a super expensive WR room for a few years...and if Murray performs, you're not eating any of his contract, while also paying Williams, or whomever they draft/sign to replace Kyler. It may not be ideal, but it could still easily fit the budget. When MHJ is ready for a possible extension, then Brown would likely need to be addressed.

I think the "we have the space" argument can work at almost every spot. The question is would you be ok paying Brown 19-20 mil when the only DL you have under contract in 2024 are Dante Stills and Jacob Slade?

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Overpaying good but not great talent - the surest way to mediocrity.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

I think the "we have the space" argument can work at almost every spot. The question is would you be ok paying Brown 19-20 mil when the only DL you have under contract in 2024 are Dante Stills and Jacob Slade?

Short answer, yes...supported by my previous comments. Look at it this way...and keep in mind, my thoughts are all predicated on Murray being the Murray we want and need...If you draft MHJ and you're still going to need another good WR...I personally think it's better to keep and pay Brown, than to have to go the FA route and maybe still pay north of $15 million/per to replace him. Is it worth saving a couple million, while risking the relationship with the QB? Also, they can use other draft capital to address the DL and other spots.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Overpaying good but not great talent - the surest way to mediocrity.

20 million is now the going rate for a good receiver unfortunately. Better receivers are getting more.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

The Cardinals are ranked 21st in WR spending for 2023. Ironically enough, the Titans with DHop are still ranked 30th...

 

[Chopper0080]

Overpaying good but not great talent - the surest way to mediocrity.

I disagree. Overpaying for talent that is old or you are not going to use is the surest way to mediocrity.

Brown has talent and is heading into his prime. The "talent" is not the issue. The issue is will he be used enough to warrant that type of deal for the Cardinals? Is Petzing going to throw the ball enough? Will he get enough targets? Will he play in base personnel? Will his route tree be versatile?

Those are the questions you have to ask and answer before paying Brown.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

@Chopper0080 as a PS: even with injury last year, Brown's stats are better than Dionte Johnson's...and I actually think he's a good comp that you mentioned. Same age and years of service.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Brown has talent and is heading into his prime. The "talent" is not the issue. The issue is will he be used enough to warrant that type of deal for the Cardinals? Is Petzing going to throw the ball enough? Will he get enough targets? Will he play in base personnel? Will his route tree be versatile?

Those are the questions you have to ask and answer before paying Brown.

Ok - but aren't you also factoring in his size/performance so far as well? Reality is that you can only pay a very small amount of players premium money.

Is Hollywood Brown going to be worth 2x a 13M per year receiver, or based on his frame/lack of production does it make sense to pay a better player premium money?

Offensive scheme will play a part, but I'm far more concerned about the player and person. Doesn't seem to be a leader. Way too many question marks for me to pay Hollywood 20M+ per year.

 

[TheCardFan]

I don't think the value of a 4th round pick is going to outweigh having a target for Murray when he comes back. Either Rondale Moore or Michael Wilson will be injured by then (probably both).

If we are only talking a 3rd or 4th, then I agree.

I would want something more (2nd rd) or a player swap if possible.

 

[kerouac9]

If we are only talking a 3rd or 4th, then I agree.

I would want something more (2nd rd) or a player swap if possible.

That's fantasy land.

 

[Chopper0080]

Ok - but aren't you also factoring in his size/performance so far as well? Reality is that you can only pay a very small amount of players premium money.

Is Hollywood Brown going to be worth 2x a 13M per year receiver, or based on his frame/lack of production does it make sense to pay a better player premium money?

Offensive scheme will play a part, but I'm far more concerned about the player and person. Doesn't seem to be a leader. Way too many question marks for me to pay Hollywood 20M+ per year.

I agree there are reasons to not give Marquise Brown a market rate contract. I just don't agree that his market rate is an overpay in relation to his talent. He is young and talented. Those are facts IMO. Just like it is a fact he will be the 2nd best WR in FA next year.

The money is available to pay for top end players. That isn't an issue for the Cardinals at this time. The question is does he fit in this offense and will the passing game be voluminous enough to justify his contract over time?

 

[TheCardFan]

That's fantasy land.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[TheCardFan]

The question is does he fit in this offense and will the passing game be voluminous enough to justify his contract over time?

Disagree.

Our roster is void of top end talent. We are re-building and there is no need to strap ourselves with that type of contract for a WR like Brown.

There is no way you pay Kyler and Brown ($20m) and re-build this team into anything better than mediocre.

 

[CardNots]

Honestly, that's what I'm hoping for. Brown has been a good soldier (even with the speeding ticket)....doesn't complain or make waves in the locker-room (basically the exact opposite of his cousin)...and talentwise, he's a good 1/2 tweener receiver. He's only 26, so he should realistically have 4-5 good, productive years before the start of decline.

Plus he is a good race car driver.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

The projected 2024 Tag amounts for WR's are:

Franchise Tag - $22.9 Million
Transition Tag - $20.5 Million

Franchise, Transition and RFA Tenders | Over the Cap

Franchise, Transition and RFA Tenders | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

 

[ASUCHRIS]

The projected 2024 Tag amounts for WR's are:

Franchise Tag - $22.9 Million
Transition Tag - $20.5 Million

Franchise, Transition and RFA Tenders | Over the Cap

Franchise, Transition and RFA Tenders | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

Seems like a much more attractive option until he actually shows he's worth a long term contract.

 

[Chopper0080]

Disagree.

Our roster is void of top end talent. We are re-building and there is no need to strap ourselves with that type of contract for a WR like Brown.

There is no way you pay Kyler and Brown ($20m) and re-build this team into anything better than mediocre.

So your solution to a roster devoid of top end talent is to avoid signing player who have top end talent? Good luck with that poverty mindset.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

So your solution to a roster devoid of top end talent is to avoid signing player who have top end talent? Good luck with that poverty mindset.

Why sign him to a long term deal when you can franchise tag him until he proves he's worth a big money deal? He obviously hasn't done that so far - the Ravens (a much better organization than us) decided to dump him instead of paying him?

Don't you want him to have one good year before committing to him long term? Seems like a guy that was tailor made for the franchise tag.

 

[TheCardFan]

So your solution to a roster devoid of top end talent is to avoid signing player who have top end talent? Good luck with that poverty mindset.

Haha. Nice jump to a false statement.


This is your top end talent?

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[kerouac9]

Disagree.

Our roster is void of top end talent. We are re-building and there is no need to strap ourselves with that type of contract for a WR like Brown.

There is no way you pay Kyler and Brown ($20m) and re-build this team into anything better than mediocre.

You're right: the Cards should win three games a season forever until they have five all-pros on their roster.

You're going to have to pay someone. The best free agent WR they'll be able to find in 2024 is likely Hollywood Brown. If the goal is to get better, aren't you stronger with Brown-MHJ-Wilson-Moore than you are taking out the first name on that list?

Who else on the offense is going to carry a high price tag?

So your solution to a roster devoid of top end talent is to avoid signing player who have top end talent? Good luck with that poverty mindset.

I agree with the poverty mindset part. Real 2002 Cardinals vibes floating around. It's easier to tell yourself that you build through the draft because then you have lots of excuses for failure. The Cardinals are trying to fill a bucket with a hole in the bottom when they refuse to re-sign their own players.

But it's really hard to sell a narrative of Hollywood Brown being a top-end talent. I think he could start for 25 out of 32 NFL teams (if not more). You don't build anything by letting those guys leave.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

You're right: the Cards should win three games a season forever until they have five all-pros on their roster.

You're going to have to pay someone. The best free agent WR they'll be able to find in 2024 is likely Hollywood Brown. If the goal is to get better, aren't you stronger with Brown-MHJ-Wilson-Moore than you are taking out the first name on that list?

Who else on the offense is going to carry a high price tag?



I agree with the poverty mindset part. Real 2002 Cardinals vibes floating around. It's easier to tell yourself that you build through the draft because then you have lots of excuses for failure. The Cardinals are trying to fill a bucket with a hole in the bottom when they refuse to re-sign their own players.

But it's really hard to sell a narrative of Hollywood Brown being a top-end talent. I think he could start for 25 out of 32 NFL teams (if not more). You don't build anything by letting those guys leave.

It's hilarious that having reservations about paying top dollar for a guy that isn't considered a top 30 WR is a poverty mindset. Oh, he's also slight, questionable skill set on the outside, and hasn't shown to be a leader when here.

Letting guys like Zach Allen and Murphy go for their reasonable deals is a completely different paradigm then paying Hollywood Brown 25M+ for 900 yards and 7 TD's.

Would love an explanation as to why franchising him isn't the most logical option at this point.

 

[kerouac9]

It's hilarious that having reservations about paying top dollar for a guy that isn't considered a top 30 WR is a poverty mindset. Oh, he's also slight, questionable skill set on the outside, and hasn't shown to be a leader when here.

Letting guys like Zach Allen and Murphy go for their reasonable deals is a completely different paradigm then paying Hollywood Brown 25M+ for 900 yards and 7 TD's.

Would love an explanation as to why franchising him isn't the most logical option at this point.

I'm projecting Brown to have like 1200+ yards and 8-12 TDs this season as the only meaningful WR on the roster for more than 8 games at a time. Amari Cooper still saw a staggering 132 targets in that Cleveland offense last year; Donovan Peoples-Jones had 96 targets. Unless Petzing is going to try to keep games fake-close by running the ball down 10 points or more, there will be plenty of targets to go around on the 2023 Arizona Cardinals.

We live in a world where Hunter Renfrow has $16.5 million APY; $22-25 million per year is perfectly reasonable for Hollywood Brown. The second contract will capture most of his prime, and he'll be phased out as Michael Wilson and 2024-draft-pick-to-be-named-later come online.

As we always say with these contracts, what feels like an overpay today will be a tremendous value after a year or two. Justin Jefferson is the third-highest-paid WR on the Vikings.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I'm projecting Brown to have like 1200+ yards and 8-12 TDs this season as the only meaningful WR on the roster for more than 8 games at a time. Amari Cooper still saw a staggering 132 targets in that Cleveland offense last year; Donovan Peoples-Jones had 96 targets. Unless Petzing is going to try to keep games fake-close by running the ball down 10 points or more, there will be plenty of targets to go around on the 2023 Arizona Cardinals.

We live in a world where Hunter Renfrow has $16.5 million APY; $22-25 million per year is perfectly reasonable for Hollywood Brown. The second contract will capture most of his prime, and he'll be phased out as Michael Wilson and 2024-draft-pick-to-be-named-later come online.

As we always say with these contracts, what feels like an overpay today will be a tremendous value after a year or two. Justin Jefferson is the third-highest-paid WR on the Vikings.

You're probably right on his #'s, assuming he stays healthy.

I'm not saying it wouldn't necessarily work in the long run. I just don't like the idea of investing a ton of money in Brown until he shows more, because the franchise or even transition tag seem safer options. That said, Christian Kirk at $18m seems reasonable now, and I had many of the same concerns about him.

 

[kerouac9]

You're probably right on his #'s, assuming he stays healthy.

I'm not saying it wouldn't necessarily work in the long run. I just don't like the idea of investing a ton of money in Brown until he shows more, because the franchise or even transition tag seem safer options. That said, Christian Kirk at $18m seems reasonable now, and I had many of the same concerns about him.

In general, I'm supportive of signing guys on second contracts. They've mostly matured as a player, but likely have more upside to unlock in the first two seasons of the new deal. They're bodies have more or less been proven up to the rigors of the NFL. You've had them in your building, so you know how they fit (most of the time).

I think using the tag makes it harder to do an extension, because you're pushing the end of the contract out into years where the player is probably unlikely to outperform it. If you're paying about the franchise number in year 1 of the deal, why not buy up the next three years? If you franchise them, the subsequent four-year deal is really edge the end of the dude's prime.