Current condition of the stock market..

[dscher]

Just figured I'd bump this just for anyone who wants to talk recession and/or stock market stuff.

 

[AZCB34]

Just figured I'd bump this just for anyone who wants to talk recession and/or stock market stuff.

We were due...things have just accelerated.

I am buy and hold investor and the least week or so has been a test on my philosophy

 

[dscher]

We were due...things have just accelerated.

I am buy and hold investor and the least week or so has been a test on my philosophy

Yes.. longest bull market in history. Along with what looks to be cratering yields that will turn into negative rates. It's the only ammo the fed will have when they run out of rate cuts. I just wonder if this is the start of our lost decade + like Japan when they went negative. Peak to trough 39k all the way to 6. My charts don't ease my mind on this theory either, which makes it even crazier.

 

[AZCB34]

Yes.. longest bull market in history. Along with what looks to be cratering yields that will turn into negative rates. It's the only ammo the fed will have when they run out of rate cuts. I just wonder if this is the start of our lost decade + like Japan when they went negative. Peak to trough 39k all the way to 6. My charts don't ease my mind on this theory either, which makes it even crazier.

I have been through multiple downturns over the years but there is something about this one...not going to say it feels different but rather it feels as though it will be longer lasting.

 

[dscher]

I have been through multiple downturns over the years but there is something about this one...not going to say it feels different but rather it feels as though it will be longer lasting.

It's going to be painful imo.. but will be necessary and will create incredible buying opportunities. When this becomes obvious is anyone's guess. But this one was mostly labeled as the everything bubble for a reason. Bonds, stocks.. it's gonna be a ride. We all need to buckle up.

 

[Superbone]

It's going to be painful imo.. but will be necessary and will create incredible buying opportunities. When this becomes obvious is anyone's guess. But this one was mostly labeled as the everything bubble for a reason. Bonds, stocks.. it's gonna be a ride. We all need to buckle up.

My guess was last Thursday night (3/12/20), the night you wrote this post. I dumped all of my extra cash into the stock market. Also, in my 401k, I moved a significant amount out of bonds and into stocks. Now I wait.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

-Warren Buffett

 

[BigRedRage]

We were due...things have just accelerated.

I am buy and hold investor and the least week or so has been a test on my philosophy

Im very curious how to proceed even though I'm the same. My schwab isn't even showing my balances to make a decision. If I have lost less than 10% it's tempting to cash out and dump it back in on an upswing. If other countries are a model, not only do I expect things to fall down naturally from the panic, the quarterly profits for many companies are going to be horrid too.

Sent from my moto g(7) using Tapatalk

 

[dscher]

My guess was last Thursday night (3/12/20), the night you wrote this post. I dumped all of my extra cash into the stock market. Also, in my 401k, I moved a significant amount out of bonds and into stocks. Now I wait.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

-Warren Buffett

Best of luck.

My favorite of Buffetts:

Rule #1. Never lose money. Rule #2. Never forget rule #1.

 

[dscher]

Im very curious how to proceed even though I'm the same. My schwab isn't even showing my balances to make a decision. If I have lost less than 10% it's tempting to cash out and dump it back in on an upswing. If other countries are a model, not only do I expect things to fall down naturally from the panic, the quarterly profits for many companies are going to be horrid too.

Sent from my moto g(7) using Tapatalk

Agreed. We only have P right now and no E. If earnings and projections come in significantly lower, which is to be imagined, the current price of the s&p could be extremely overvalued. To levels we have never seen. Jmo

 

[AZCrazy]

My guess was last Thursday night (3/12/20), the night you wrote this post. I dumped all of my extra cash into the stock market. Also, in my 401k, I moved a significant amount out of bonds and into stocks. Now I wait.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

-Warren Buffett

True enough, but people haven't yet started being fearful.
Oh crap, my IRA is down isn't the same as the whole house of cards tumbling down, with this as the angry bird that did it.

It's either going to be a rough month, or a rough few years.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Im very curious how to proceed even though I'm the same. My schwab isn't even showing my balances to make a decision. If I have lost less than 10% it's tempting to cash out and dump it back in on an upswing. If other countries are a model, not only do I expect things to fall down naturally from the panic, the quarterly profits for many companies are going to be horrid too.

Sent from my moto g(7) using Tapatalk

Invest in paper companies right now! Their quarterly earnings are going to be insane

 

[dscher]

True enough, but people haven't yet started being fearful.
Oh crap, my IRA is down isn't the same as the whole house of cards tumbling down, with this as the angry bird that did it.

Agreed. I generally agree with the contrarian view of buying when others are fearful. The only issue with that saying, is we don't know when that fear will subside. I personally believe it has just started. Time will tell.

 

[dscher]

Invest in paper companies right now! Their quarterly earnings are going to be insane

Speaking of Buffett.. he did buy a substantial portion of Kroger months ago. Quite the Oracle I suppose. Lol.

As a side note. I had to do some digging, but I vaguely remembered an article written about him calling for a 'megacatastrophe' to his shareholders in his annual letter for 2019. Sure enough.. looked up the date of that article with the day exactly a year later and Feb 24th was the first day of the panic selling from the coronavirus news. I was blown away with that one.

 

[AZCB34]

Interest rates cut to 0.

 

[dscher]

Interest rates cut to 0.

Along with repo madness pouring trillions into the markets to create artificial liquidity. They have only one direction remaining imo.

 

[AZCrazy]

Well, that pounded the hell out of the market again. Artificial props don't always work, and they have diminishing returns over time. We've reached the end point. This economy will have to stand on its own merits for a while.

What do you guys think will be the best buys moving forward? What sectors or stocks will be at the greatest discounts?

 

[dscher]

Well, that pounded the hell out of the market again. Artificial props don't always work, and they have diminishing returns over time. We've reached the end point. This economy will have to stand on its own merits for a while.

What do you guys think will be the best buys moving forward? What sectors or stocks will be at the greatest discounts?

I think gold and silver will be a good area with any upcoming possible hyperinflation. Long term picture of course. If you're still committed to stock buying, the utility/staples will hold up better relatively to the broader market.

 

[dscher]

After another rocket ride to the downside... It looks like we could have capitulated possibly today with that move on a short term basis for a low. So good news for the bulls. ... But to where is going to be the ultimate question. With a vix at historical levels.. we should be ready for 5-15 perfect daily swings in either direction for at least a couple more weeks possibly. A lot more of this whiplash to be expected. Jmo

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think gold and silver will be a good area with any upcoming possible hyperinflation. Long term picture of course. If you're still committed to stock buying, the utility/staples will hold up better relatively to the broader market.

The interesting thing was a lot of pundits point to gold in a time like this, but it’s having a sell off. Looks like investors seeking liquidity.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

After another rocket ride to the downside... It looks like we could have capitulated possibly today with that move on a short term basis for a low. So good news for the bulls. ... But to where is going to be the ultimate question. With a vix at historical levels.. we should be ready for 5-15 perfect daily swings in either direction for at least a couple more weeks possibly. A lot more of this whiplash to be expected. Jmo

Yup. I’d agree with this.

 

[dscher]

The interesting thing was a lot of pundits point to gold in a time like this, but it’s having a sell off. Looks like investors seeking liquidity.

That 1700 level was a very important technical level on a long term basis as well. The fact we hit it and sold off is concerning in the short to intermediate term imo. But in general, I believe in gold and silver as a hedge against a potential collapsing dollar and store of value. Charts look like we have plenty of support currently around 1350.

Agree on seeking liquidity. Lots of selling to cover margin calls it looks like.

 

[dscher]

Next up. $SPX 3000. I see another rocket ride to the upside. Buuuuut, We are forming a very big pattern that usually results to the downside in the process. That would be considered a "buying high" moment. Just a heads for buyers in that range, if interested.

 

[AZCB34]

Next up. $SPX 3000. I see another rocket ride to the upside. Buuuuut, We are forming a very big pattern that usually results to the downside in the process. That would be considered a "buying high" moment. Just a heads for buyers in that range, if interested.

I am more a fundamentals investor but it feels like a base has been set somewhat around SPX2700ish. Interesting time and I expect the market to break through that to the downside again at some point

 

[dscher]

I am more a fundamentals investor but it feels like a base has been set somewhat around SPX2700ish. Interesting time and I expect the market to break through that to the downside again at some point

Depending on the fomo this market sees... We could see some extreme buying in the next week or two. If that happens, it will be a downside that would make February and March look like child's play. Jmo.