Dare I say the "T" word . . . ?

[Superbone]

The Suns have the 4th best winning percentage in NBA history (Cavs 21st). I think it is fair to say that has a lot to do with how many times each team has has a #1 pick.

I'm betting if you were to check the 3 teams above us (and it might be 4 now), they've had more top 3 picks in a 50 year time span.

 

[pokerface]

A) you won’t see it from me likely.
B) not for Zion. He’s not like the currrnt crop
C) odds get worse for tanking next year.

Plus I really believe McD needs to show significant improvement next season to save his job. This offseason should be interesting.

 

[Mainstreet]

Has a team ever been punished for tanking? Punished with rings maybe...

I don't think now is the time for a team to test it after they have been warned by the NBA commissioner.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Pretty hard to argue with injuries. There are always injuries and how you deal with them is always judgment call. The NBA cannot police that.

 

[pokerface]

Pretty hard to argue with injuries. There are always injuries and how you deal with them is always judgment call. The NBA cannot police that.

Back spasm!

 

[Errntknght]

Rankest of 'tankers'

I compared three different methods of ranking and rating the nine teams that are in the running for worst WL record. The Knicks appeared to be out of until they lost KP but they're 1-9 in their last 10 games so they still have a remote chance. The first method is one we all know - point differential. The other two are calculations from box score items, summed over all games for the teams and all their opponents against them (available from Doug's NBA and MLB stats.) (If you're interested, one uses offensive efficiency which is the ratio of good offensive things (points, assists, orff rebs, FTA) to bad offensive things (TOs, missed shots), with opps off eff being your def eff. The other uses ranking of differential box score items, then combines those ranks into an overall rank.} The number under OffEff is projected wins for the season.

Team Pt.Diff OffEff Rank
Phx -8.9 25 29
Sac -8.2 27 30
Chi -6.3 27 28
Atl -4.7 33 27
Mem -4.5 33 26
Orl -4.4 33 25
Bro -4.1 33 24
Dal -2.6 36 23
NYK -2.6 36 21 (Det is 22)

The correlation is so good that it looks faked but it's just the way it turned out. I make this comparison from time to time to validate my OffEff and Rank calculations and its usually not this perfect.

Two other things I noticed looking at the 'expanded' stats from the standings: Among these nine teams Chi, Phx and Sac had the best records in 3pt games - 8-5, 5-3, 3-3. Chicago, NYK and Phx had the best records against sub 500 teams - 12-8, 13-12, 11-11.
Sac was better than most at 8-12.

It's not evidence that would stand up in court but three different kinds of data all pointing the same way has me conviced that Phx, Sac and Chi are not truly tanking, they are simply bad. The Knicks certainly weren't tanking before KP went down but I'm not sure now. The other five have almost certainly been tanking all year or most of it.

 

[Mainstreet]

It's not evidence that would stand up in court but three different kinds of data all pointing the same way has me conviced that Phx, Sac and Chi are not truly tanking, they are simply bad. The Knicks certainly weren't tanking before KP went down but I'm not sure now. The other five have almost certainly been tanking all year or most of it.

This is not the best news for the Suns and fans if they are simply bad. A lot of things have to go right in the off season to turn the team around. Of course if the Suns youth starts to blossom, it will be an easier road.

 

[Bada0Bing]

I never understood them doing that behind closed doors.

They post this online every year. It's just really boring to watch.

 

[Phrazbit]

Has a team ever been punished for tanking? Punished with rings maybe...

There are far more teams who's only reward for tanking was another roster so crappy they kept tanking.

 

[pokerface]

There are far more teams who's only reward for tanking was another roster so crappy they kept tanking.

Low draft picks and no free agents is much better. That gets the fans excited.

 

[Phrazbit]

Low draft picks and no free agents is much better. That gets the fans excited.

If you suck you might as well tank, I'm not arguing against that. Every year like 5 teams tank, you said that the only "punishment" teams have gotten for tanking is rings... I'm pointing out that a good 80% of teams that tank get jack squat out of their completely wasted season.

How'd you like to tank and come away with Haseem Thabeet? Or win 15 games and come out of the lotto with the 4th pick? The odds of that kind of result are more likely than landing the next superstar.

 

[pokerface]

If you suck you might as well tank, I'm not arguing against that. Every year like 5 teams tank, you said that the only "punishment" teams have gotten for tanking is rings... I'm pointing out that a good 80% of teams that tank get jack squat out of their completely wasted season.

How'd you like to tank and come away with Haseem Thabeet? Or win 15 games and come out of the lotto with the 4th pick? The odds of that kind of result are more likely than landing the next superstar.

Teams that tank already arn't good. They make themselves worse out of desperation. Doesn't seem like a big deal to me... especially considering the alternatives.

 

[Phrazbit]

Teams that tank already arn't good. They make themselves worse out of desperation. Doesn't seem like a big deal to me... especially considering the alternatives.

Well, part of that choice is the high risk that you get stuck being terrible.

And meanwhile, top 4 teams in the NBA, the Raptors, Celtics, Warriors and Rockets, didn't have to tank into the top of the lottery even once to build their current rosters.

 

[Raindog]

Well, part of that choice is the high risk that you get stuck being terrible.

And meanwhile, top 4 teams in the NBA, the Raptors, Celtics, Warriors and Rockets, didn't have to tank into the top of the lottery even once to build their current rosters.

True... the other, probably better, approach is to make brilliant trades and picks no matter where you end up in the draft. But unfortunately not everyone has the luxury of having smart people running their franchise.

 

[pokerface]

There is no "one way" to make a franchise successful...or unsuccessful for that matter. Luck, timing, smarts, reputation etc etc... everything plays to one extent or another. Fans that think there is some "one way" solution are kidding themselves.

 

[3rdside]

The is no "one way" to make a franchise successful...or unsuccessful for that matter. Luck, timing, smarts, reputation etc etc... everything plays to one extent or another. Fans that think there is some "one way" solution are kidding themselves.

A better manager than mcd would have found a way to make the Dragic, Bledsoe, Frye roster work. What he did to that team was a disgrace.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

granted we haven't seen the young collegians play a lick of hoops yet, but this seems to be a potentially transcendent class of bigs. And while we have chriss bender big sauce I don't think any of them compare to the potential of porter, Ayton, bagley, and potentially a couple others like bomba.

We are still not a good team. If a quarter of the way through the season we are not much improved (in 8th slot or better) and this college class looks like the real deal I'm all in for one last tank.

SO let it be written, so let it be done.

Now we can all root for a win against the Mavs. Go SUns! United we (now) stand!

 

[AZ Native]

What is the worst spot we could pick?

 

[AzStevenCal]

What is the worst spot we could pick?

I'd go with Brooklyn. Or maybe 4th.

 

[pokerface]

SO let it be written, so let it be done.

Now we can all root for a win against the Mavs. Go SUns! United we (now) stand!

 

[Errntknght]

What is the worst spot we could pick?

'

We can't pick worse than fourth.