Deal or No Deal

[jf-08]

It's nice to see Cards fan represent on the show:

Our own 100%CardsFan is the emcee!

You must be registered for see images

 

[Brian in Mesa]

 

[100%CardsFan]

Where is the mermaid costume?

 

[marathon_mom]

Anyone else watch this show? I bet that woman cut off her hubby for a month after pushing her into that decision. Lost $138K. Greedy SOB.

 

[Russ Smith]

Anyone else watch this show? I bet that woman cut off her hubby for a month after pushing her into that decision. Lost $138K. Greedy SOB.

I watched the last 15 minutes last night and I gotta admit it does keep your interest. I figured it's just let's make a deal, but it's not it involves your mind a lot as you're doing the math in your head on the odds of what's in your case being higher or lower than what they're offering in trade.

If I had to make one change, instead of having briefcases the models open, they should just put the dollar amounts on the models bodies so they simply undress to reveal the amount.

 

[ProdigalSun]

hahaha that would be awesome

 

[Pariah]

I would invite the top mathmaticians and statisticians from the local universities to be my advisors.

 

[Ryanwb]

I would invite the top mathmaticians and statisticians from the local universities to be my advisors.

...or just Djaughe and his magical calculator

 

[Pariah]

...or just Djaughe and his magical calculator

I stole it from him. I use it to out-think Howie Mandel every night at 7.

 

[abomb]

Am I a nerd for calculating the odds on the fly in Excel, calculating people's expected values and then criticizing them when they make the wrong choice?

A-Bomb

 

[D-Dogg]

Am I a nerd for calculating the odds on the fly in Excel, calculating people's expected values and then criticizing them when they make the wrong choice?

A-Bomb

No dude, you're a nerd for other reasons. Some that may or may not involve Excel, however.

 

[CardFan67]

If I had to make one change, instead of having briefcases the models open, they should just put the dollar amounts on the models bodies so they simply undress to reveal the amount.

Pretty good show, the change I would make (eventhough I like yours), would be to ditch the phone and the banker... can't they simply flash the offer on the screen??? Great show, stupid banker...

 

[Ryanwb]

I haven't heard of this show.... when is it on? Howie Mandel got a job?

 

[Mike Olbinski]

Man, I just watched this show for the first time tonight, it was the season finale...goodness it's nerve wracking...

Lady walked away with $196k though...not bad.

 

[nathan]

Am I a nerd for calculating the odds on the fly in Excel, calculating people's expected values and then criticizing them when they make the wrong choice?

Yes, you are treating the game like an actuary. To borrow from economics, there is no reason assume that a person's utility from winning $1 M would be exactly 50x as great as their utility if they only won $20 K.

 

[CardFan67]

Check out the application

http://www.nbc.com/Casting/Applications/DOND_Long_App.pdf

 

[Russ Smith]

Yeah you have to send a video in. last night was the first time in my life I ever actually texted to enter some stupid contest, didn't win the 10K though.

I have my own personal theory on the show which is impossible to clearly explain but the general rule of thumb is, if your offer exceeds ~ 100K, you take the deal unless the ratio of high numbers on the right side is good. What the exact ratio is, I can't say, I just "know it when I see it". My guess is nobody is ever actually going to get down to 1 briefcase plus their own and have the balls to stick with their own, so the guy that got over 400K earlier this year did REALLY well.

I'm trying to convince my girlfriend to help me make a video. I'm trying to figure out what they want, the best person I've seen all year was the gay guy on recently, he was just so animated it made for incredible TV, howie was letting him hug the models, sit on the floor etc, very funny stuff. You just had to root for the guy. but trying to figure out what sort of video they're going to want is impossible, my guess is they want you to bring along several people which makes it a bit harder to make the video for me since that means having to ask people to come over just to make a video.

but I love the show and if you get picked, you're pretty much guaranteed a nice chunk of money.

 

[abomb]

Yeah you have to send a video in. last night was the first time in my life I ever actually texted to enter some stupid contest, didn't win the 10K though.

I have my own personal theory on the show which is impossible to clearly explain but the general rule of thumb is, if your offer exceeds ~ 100K, you take the deal unless the ratio of high numbers on the right side is good. What the exact ratio is, I can't say, I just "know it when I see it". My guess is nobody is ever actually going to get down to 1 briefcase plus their own and have the balls to stick with their own, so the guy that got over 400K earlier this year did REALLY well.

I am a dork. I made a spreadsheet while watching once and was calculating the expected value based on the number of remaining briefcases and what values we knew. By doing that, you could clearly see that people get screwed early in the game, ie the banker only offers 40-60% of the expected value. When it gets to four or so briefcases, the payout was a bit better, maybe 80% or so, but statistics would tell you to try to get that number as close to 100% as possible before accepting the offer.

I can give an easy example if anyone cares. lol

 

[NEZCardsfan]

This thread makes me feel like a scumbag. I just watch to see what the models are wearing.

 

[Dback Jon]

I am a dork. I made a spreadsheet while watching once and was calculating the expected value based on the number of remaining briefcases and what values we knew. By doing that, you could clearly see that people get screwed early in the game, ie the banker only offers 40-60% of the expected value. When it gets to four or so briefcases, the payout was a bit better, maybe 80% or so, but statistics would tell you to try to get that number as close to 100% as possible before accepting the offer.

I can give an easy example if anyone cares. lol

Don't worry - I was going to do the same thing, but was too lazy

 

[Russ Smith]

I am a dork. I made a spreadsheet while watching once and was calculating the expected value based on the number of remaining briefcases and what values we knew. By doing that, you could clearly see that people get screwed early in the game, ie the banker only offers 40-60% of the expected value. When it gets to four or so briefcases, the payout was a bit better, maybe 80% or so, but statistics would tell you to try to get that number as close to 100% as possible before accepting the offer.

I can give an easy example if anyone cares. lol

Yes that's the best way to do it. My way is more of a how would I deal with it when I'm actually up there on stage because I'm betting they don't let you use a spreadsheet.

I'm a big enough dork I've played the mock version on their website. it's not real money of course so your decsions are much quicker, and it's remarkable how often you wind up with all the big numbers gone.

I've even been debating with my girlfriend if the numbers are truly randomly distrubuted, why don't people just go down the line starting at 1? If it's truly random the odds are just as good going that way as trying to guess.

The worst one I did on the mock game was when I started picking the numbers from UCLA's basketball team this year. Damn Jordan Farmar #1 took the million dollars off the board on the first opened case!

Definitely a show I want back on the air, until i somehow get selected to be on.

 

[CardFan67]

I am a dork. I made a spreadsheet while watching once and was calculating the expected value based on the number of remaining briefcases and what values we knew. By doing that, you could clearly see that people get screwed early in the game, ie the banker only offers 40-60% of the expected value. When it gets to four or so briefcases, the payout was a bit better, maybe 80% or so, but statistics would tell you to try to get that number as close to 100% as possible before accepting the offer.

I can give an easy example if anyone cares. lol

Since you spent all this time, would this be a sheet you would be willing to just post or email so the rest of us can enjoy your dorkiness...?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Deal or no Deal....

I don't think that there is already a thread for this show (at least I searched)

I don't Tivo it or anything, but everytime that it is on, I usually stop to watch it.

The other night, someone passed up $147,000 for a 1/3 chance at $500,000. He ended up missing, and finished with $10 in his pocket.

Does anyone else watch it?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Complete Mindless Drivel.

Monkeys can compete on this show.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

BTW this is coming from someone who watches wrestling so you know it is dumb.