Deal or No Deal

[Pariah]

BTW this is coming from someone who watches wrestling so you know it is dumb.

Either that or we know we can completely disregard your television opinion.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Either that or we know we can completely disregard your television opinion.

What is the skill involved in this game? There isn't any. It is a bunch of bimbos holding up cases and someone playing a guessing game.

I like a lot of game shows and this one is just pointless.

 

[bankybruce]

What is the skill involved in this game? There isn't any. It is a bunch of bimbos holding up cases and someone playing a guessing game.

I like a lot of game shows and this one is just pointless.

I guess you did not like "Let's Make a Deal" then.

 

[Pariah]

What is the skill involved in this game? There isn't any. It is a bunch of bimbos holding up cases and someone playing a guessing game.

I like a lot of game shows and this one is just pointless.

I give up! I won't try to joke with you about TV anymore! Sorry...

Wrestling is totally awesome and Deal or No Deal is mindless!

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I have been known to watch both... I guess I am totally screwed.

 

[Russ Smith]

I actually love the show. I agree that it's completely luck, but it is compelling too. Recently there was a woman who in her first 2 rounds knocked out the million, 750K, 500k, 400k and I think 300K, obviously she's not a "bad" player she just had horrible luck. But it's interesting to watch and there is some math involved, at least gauging the odds a bit on when to take the deal.

It's going to be a surprise if anybody ever goes all the way to the end and sticks with their case.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I give up! I won't try to joke with you about TV anymore! Sorry...

Wrestling is totally awesome and Deal or No Deal is mindless!

LOL I suck.

Sorry this show annoys me because I always see like 5 minutes of it before Heroes.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I actually love the show. I agree that it's completely luck, but it is compelling too. Recently there was a woman who in her first 2 rounds knocked out the million, 750K, 500k, 400k and I think 300K, obviously she's not a "bad" player she just had horrible luck. But it's interesting to watch and there is some math involved, at least gauging the odds a bit on when to take the deal.

It's going to be a surprise if anybody ever goes all the way to the end and sticks with their case.

We need a Japanese version of this show where you have to run a gauntlet to get to your case.

You must be registered for see images

 

[dreamcastrocks]

We need a Japanese version of this show where you have to run a gauntlet to get to your case.

You must be registered for see images

I absolutely love MXC. What an awesome show.

 

[nathan]

:beatsBIMtothepunch:
http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=66019

 

[dreamcastrocks]

mods can feel free to merge the two threads....

 

[arthurracoon]

I don't think that there is already a thread for this show (at least I searched)

I don't Tivo it or anything, but everytime that it is on, I usually stop to watch it.

The other night, someone passed up $147,000 for a 1/3 chance at $500,000. He ended up missing, and finished with $10 in his pocket.

Does anyone else watch it?

I usually end up seeing the last 10 minutes of the show on monday nights before heroes comes on

man, that guy was insane

i thought he was crazy for not taking the deal on the move before that one, and then even more so when he passed up the 147000 deal

although i do agree, this show is mindles (unless you actually calculate all the probabilities)

 

[Brian in Mesa]

:beatsBIMtothepunch:
http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=66019

mods can feel free to merge the two threads....

Don't hold your breath...



BIM

 

[CaptTurbo]

It's going to be a surprise if anybody ever goes all the way to the end and sticks with their case.

No one will ever do it. Best case scenerio. The 1 million and 750,000 remains and thats it.

Your offer would be 875,000.

Would your risk 125,000 for the chance at an extra 125,000 on a 50/50 chance? I sure as heck wouldnt.

Peopel do go tot th eend though when its already a moot point and they have done awful.

 

[Pariah]

Would your risk 125,000 for the chance at an extra 125,000 on a 50/50 chance? I sure as heck wouldnt.

I would. Why not? You're either walking out a millionaire or a 3/4 of a millionaire.

 

[CaptTurbo]

I would. Why not? You're either walking out a millionaire or a 3/4 of a millionaire.

You're not walking out as either. 50% tax.

Its basically saying hey if we gave you 825k would you walk over to a roulette table and put 125k on black or red. You wouldnt. Thats a lot of money man. especially when you talk after tax money. Its a huge %.

 

[JS22]

No one will ever do it. Best case scenerio. The 1 million and 750,000 remains and thats it.

Your offer would be 875,000.

Would your risk 125,000 for the chance at an extra 125,000 on a 50/50 chance? I sure as heck wouldnt.

Peopel do go tot th eend though when its already a moot point and they have done awful.

It's happened once, and the woman went for it. Turns out that she had the 750k in her case. But at that point, I'd go for it to.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

It's happened once, and the woman went for it. Turns out that she had the 750k in her case. But at that point, I'd go for it to.

Make that 3 of us. Poker players rarely having a problem putting the money in the pot when it is a race (50/50 situation)

 

[Pariah]

You're not walking out as either. 50% tax.

Its basically saying hey if we gave you 825k would you walk over to a roulette table and put 125k on black or red. You wouldnt. Thats a lot of money man. especially when you talk after tax money. Its a huge %.

I would. It's "found" money anyway.

And your tax point doesn't make much sense to me. Whether you have a million, $850K or $750K, they're all getting taxed regardless of which one you end up with.

 

[Russ Smith]

No one will ever do it. Best case scenerio. The 1 million and 750,000 remains and thats it.

Your offer would be 875,000.

Would your risk 125,000 for the chance at an extra 125,000 on a 50/50 chance? I sure as heck wouldnt.

Peopel do go tot th eend though when its already a moot point and they have done awful.

I know it's easy to say but I actually think I would in that scenario because I came with nothing so if I leave with 750 instead of 875 I'd be ok with that?

But if I were actually there, I'd probably chicken out and play it safe.

 

[Russ Smith]

It's happened once, and the woman went for it. Turns out that she had the 750k in her case. But at that point, I'd go for it to.

Wow I must have missed that one would have been great tv.

 

[abomb]

No one will ever do it. Best case scenerio. The 1 million and 750,000 remains and thats it.

Your offer would be 875,000.

Would your risk 125,000 for the chance at an extra 125,000 on a 50/50 chance? I sure as heck wouldnt.

Peopel do go tot th eend though when its already a moot point and they have done awful.

Not quite true from what I have seen of the show. The banker would most something near the expected value of $875,000, maybe like $800,000.

I once watched a couple of episodes with Excel handy and was busting out the expected values and seeing how badly the banker undercuts people through the first 10 rounds or so.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Not quite true from what I have seen of the show. The banker would most something near the expected value of $875,000, maybe like $800,000.

I once watched a couple of episodes with Excel handy and was busting out the expected values and seeing how badly the banker undercuts people through the first 10 rounds or so.

Not always.

The last episode that I watched is when the guy had 3 cases left, $10, $100, and $500,000. He decided that they would go for one more case, and choose the $500k case. His cases were $10 and $100 left, and they offered the guy a flat $50. I guess it is easier to not undercut badly when we are talking about $5, vs. a $100k. (he offered $147k for 3 cases) which isn't a terrible rip off.

Which brings me to a question that I have thought about. Do they know all of the values in the cases previous, and use that knowledge in the banker's calculations?

 

[abomb]

Not always.

The last episode that I watched is when the guy had 3 cases left, $10, $100, and $500,000. He decided that they would go for one more case, and choose the $500k case. His cases were $10 and $100 left, and they offered the guy a flat $50. I guess it is easier to not undercut badly when we are talking about $5, vs. a $100k. (he offered $147k for 3 cases) which isn't a terrible rip off.

I wonder what the offered him when he had three cases, since EV = 500,110. If it was $200k+, although being undercut, you'd have to consider it. For $10 and $100 left, EV = $55, so $50 is still an undercut.

Which brings me to a question that I have thought about. Do they know all of the values in the cases previous, and use that knowledge in the banker's calculations?

I would say that the banker definitely uses the exposed cases in the calc. Next time you are watching, calc it yourself. EV = Value of all remaining (closed) cases / number of cases.

 

[Russ Smith]

Yeah if you play the online version the offers are much closer to expected value as Abomb is saying. It's clear in the tv show there's some editorial stuff going on by "the banker"

Like last night we watched a rerun on CNBC. one offer was 16K, the next offer 16,001. There's definitely some undercutting that goes on.

My theory has always been you basically go in and pick a number you're willing to take, say 100K, and when you get to that amount, you take it unless there's a compelling reason(like you have all the bigger amounts still there). you won't get the huge payoff but you're less likely to go too far and get hosed completely.