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I think there is a very real possibility that it's reduced to 20 to match some other penalties that have been handed out before, like have been mentioned previously in the thread. I know the rule is now 25 games but I could see the league coming to an agreement where they give a little to let the players union feel like their fight made a real difference. A 5 game reduction is only suspending him for the amount of games he would have gotten had he been popped last year, so I don't think it's unrealistic.
The players union fast tracked this for a reason. They feel there is something to argue, what that is though? We likely won't know unless it is reduced. If they can only fast track 2 things a year and this is 1, then there has to be something that makes them feel like their fight won't be in vain.
Maybe you're right, I really have no perspective on this. I've just decided to not worry about it one way or the other. I figure Ayton has a decade plus to make us forget this incident and hopefully he makes good use of his off time.