Derek Brown

[Dr. Jones]

You mention that Brown made one great play in that game. So I assume you watched every play that game? Just because a guy doesn’t make highlight reel plays doesn’t mean he isn’t impacting the game. Fact: Auburn’s run defense in 2019 suffered more that a yard and a half difference when Brown was out of the game. That is called indisputable evidence that he is impacting games.

Agreed. He's great. Just more risky in the top 12 IMO. Especially when you will be sitting out at least 30 to 40 plays per game already.

Has there been a player that has performed historically bad at the combine and been a solid pro, never mind a top ten pick?

I'm sure there are a few...... but the top 10 piece is where you need to balance value to risk a bit more appropriately.

After the mid 1st, you then are hunting upside a bit more aggressively.

By almost every scouting hub out there...... Quinnen Williams was and is a better prospect than Derrick Brown. Please remember that.

 

[Finito]

Agreed. He's great. Just more risky in the top 12 IMO. Especially when you will be sitting out at least 30 to 40 plays per game already.



I'm sure there are a few...... but the top 10 piece is where you need to balance value to risk a bit more appropriately.

After the mid 1st, you then are hunting upside a bit more aggressively.

By almost every scouting hub out there...... Quinnen Williams was and is a better prospect than Derrick Brown. Please remember that.

Quinnen Williams was flat out amazing at Alabama AMAZING. There’s no shame in that.

this whole thing is getting to be a bit much.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Quinnen Williams was flat out amazing at Alabama AMAZING. There’s no shame in that.

this whole thing is getting to be a bit much.

I know he was. The point was to show you how hard it is to project interior DLineman to the NFL.

Quinnen should have went closer to 8 to 10 than #3. It's hard to argue that Josh Allen wont be a better pro. Even Ed Oliver at this point.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Some guys clearly didn’t watch him play.

some guys learn not to trust their lying eyes so much

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

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One of the single greatest plays I’ve ever seen a DT make. Flies right by the guard, chases the RB in the back field, changes direction and creams him 20 yards later.

that’s just insane

Single play samples aren’t exactly proof of much

 

[TheCardFan]

By almost every scouting hub out there...... Quinnen Williams was and is a better prospect than Derrick Brown. Please remember that.

Agreed. I was all in on Q last year. That dude's tape and production were superior to Browns IMO.

 

[Finito]

I know he was. The point was to show you how hard it is to project interior DLineman to the NFL.

Quinnen should have went closer to 8 to 10 than #3. It's hard to argue that Josh Allen wont be a better pro. Even Ed Oliver at this point.

but you can do that with every position. We can do this all day.

Offensive lineman once were the safest picks in the draft now there probably the biggest gamble.

want to talk about the QB bust that have gone in the top ten?

WR are in the same boat

It’s not a defensive lineman thing it’s a draft thing. It’s a flat out crap shoot plain and simple

 

[Finito]

Single play samples aren’t exactly proof of much

no there not but that’s a pretty damn spectacular play

 

[Dr. Jones]

but you can do that with every position. We can do this all day.

Offensive lineman once were the safest picks in the draft now there probably the biggest gamble.

want to talk about the QB bust that have gone in the top ten?

WR are in the same boat

It’s not a defensive lineman thing it’s a draft thing. It’s a flat out crap shoot plain and simple

It's been a few months.... but I posted the odds of every position. Some are better than others.... And OT's continue to be the safest bet.

WR's are one of the riskiest IIRC with a 47% hit rate.

 

[Finito]

It's been a few months.... but I posted the odds of every position. Some are better than others.... And OT's continue to be the safest bet.

WR's are one of the riskiest IIRC with a 47% hit rate.

It’s all a crap shoot.

 

[Dr. Jones]

It’s all a crap shoot.

With Keim makingthe picks? Maybe.

But overall...... Not really.

Here is the post I made: https://www.arizonasportsfans.com/forum/threads/safest-positions-to-draft-in-round-1.335241/

If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.

83% (OT) or 70% (Simmons) is a monster number when compared to the 50-50 proposition of a WR.

 

[Dr. Jones]

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Explains why all of those late OT picks never panned out. haha

 

[Lomax to Green 84]

Marcus Spears, former LSU and Dallas Cowboy DT, who covers the SEC said Brown is absolutely destructive up front and should be right in the discussion with Young, Simmons, and Okudah as the top defensive prospect. Mel and McShay both agreed. Said Brown is a super talent and is a top character guy who loves the game. Sign me up.

 

[Finito]

Explains why all of those late OT picks never panned out. haha

Nice. That’s real good information, but at the same time it doesn’t distinguish star from starter those are just just who became starters. So it’s kind of skewed a little but still good info

 

[MadCardDisease]

I'm not sold on Brown. I don't spend a top 10 pick on a guy who is a run stuffer with one pass rush move.

 

[Goldfield]

I get what your saying but we can’t ignore our defense either. I think this draft has to be offensive line or defensive front 7 with our first pick.

if I can get another Docket I’m good

I don’t take anyone over Simmons if he’s there. But with the offensive lineman in my opinion Andrew Thomas and Wills are legit, I think Wirfs is best suited at guard and Becton is a project.

Completely agree.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I get what your saying but we can’t ignore our defense either. I think this draft has to be offensive line or defensive front 7 with our first pick.

if I can get another Docket I’m good

I don’t take anyone over Simmons if he’s there. But with the offensive lineman in my opinion Andrew Thomas and Wills are legit, I think Wirfs is best suited at guard and Becton is a project.

Dockett would be a great return for #8. Just using one metric (AV) he had 89 career in 11 seasons with a high year of 14 and two other years of 10.

Since 2000, #8 picks have managed AVs as follows:
83 (five years of ten or higher)
12 (none) WR
49 (one)
90 (two)
80 (three)
65 (two)
63 (none)
22 (none) DE
15 (none) DE
38 (none)
29 (none)
16 (none) QB
72 (six)
28 (none)
4 CB
Vic Beasley
Jack Conklin
Christian McCaffrey
Roquan Smith
TJ Hockensen

Dockett also faced double teams at FSU and had twice as many career tackles for loss as Brown.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I'm not sold on Brown. I don't spend a top 10 pick on a guy who is a run stuffer with one pass rush move.

Depends on that one move, if that move is successful and based on strength, then it does not matter. It's like having a bruising back which just runs inside the tackle and still picks up yards... plus, I know Buckner can teach the boy

 

[CardinalCovfefe]

Wills & Wirfs - Polish for Wills, and a typical RT will play 100% of offensive downs week to week.
WR's - Conservatively play roughly 60 to 75% of downs. More likely closer to 80%.

Brown will play roughly 50 to 65% of downs just based on how defensive line play is coached.

Next, he will have to overcome historically bad data (posted in my quote) regarding his measureables and how that leads to overall prospect production at the next level.

And finally...... DT's are just an absolute crap shoot this high in the draft. If we were talking pick 12 or later? Fine. Most picks are riskier at that point.

So you would prefer to simply ignore the fact the Cardinal D was the biggest issue in 2019 and that the teams in the NFC ran down their throat all last season.

Also you would ignore Justin Murray's grading from the last half of 2019, and that the Cards already have the best group of WR's in the division.
I would add that all of the "experts" that act like Brown's numbers at the combine disqualify him from consideration are just a bit too cozy with the idea that that is a massive factor. It's a piece of the puzzle. That's all it is.

 

[Dr. Jones]

So you would prefer to simply ignore the fact the Cardinal D was the biggest issue in 2019 and that the teams in the NFC ran down their throat all last season.

Also you would ignore Justin Murray's grading from the last half of 2019, and that the Cards already have the best group of WR's in the division.
I would add that all of the "experts" that act like Brown's numbers at the combine disqualify him from consideration are just a bit too cozy with the idea that that is a massive factor. It's a piece of the puzzle. That's all it is.

No.... I would not prefer.

We had 3 good FA signings (Phillips, Kennard, & Campbell). And Allen, Alford, and PP trying to prove he deserves a contract all coming back next year.

That's over 50% turnover on your defense and it allows Byron to move into the slot (hopefully making him better).

5 new players. 2 rookies getting to their 2nd season (Thomson & Murphy). Another rookie coming back from injury. And your #1 and #2 CB.

Combine that with me continuously saying that I want Young, Okudah, or Simmons before anyone else. Then Wills next?

Is that not enough?

 

[AirRaid]

No.... I would not prefer.

We had 3 good FA signings (Phillips, Kennard, & Campbell). And Allen, Alford, and PP trying to prove he deserves a contract all coming back next year.

That's over 50% turnover on your defense and it allows Byron to move into the slot (hopefully making him better).

5 new players. 2 rookies getting to their 2nd season (Thomson & Murphy). Another rookie coming back from injury. And your #1 and #2 CB.

Combine that with me continuously saying that I want Young, Okudah, or Simmons before anyone else. Then Wills next?

Is that not enough?

We signed average defenders from bad defenses(except Buffalo.) The Lions were somehow almost as bad as we were and the Falcons were bottom half. Phillips was a quality signing but to toot the horn of two linebackers from bad teams isn't the greatest confidence booster in the world. De'Vondre Campbell graded out as a 50.1 last year on PFF, that's a third-stringer grade at best. Kennard was decent, but we signed him for the cheap and the fact that Detroit didn't bother says a lot.

 

[CardinalCovfefe]

No.... I would not prefer.

We had 3 good FA signings (Phillips, Kennard, & Campbell). And Allen, Alford, and PP trying to prove he deserves a contract all coming back next year.

That's over 50% turnover on your defense and it allows Byron to move into the slot (hopefully making him better).

5 new players. 2 rookies getting to their 2nd season (Thomson & Murphy). Another rookie coming back from injury. And your #1 and #2 CB.

Combine that with me continuously saying that I want Young, Okudah, or Simmons before anyone else. Then Wills next?

Is that not enough?

I'd be fine with taking Okudah or Simmons, for the obvious reasons, but Young will be gone, and it really looks like only one of Brown, Okudah or Simmons MIGHT be there. So I guess where we differ is I would take Brown IF he were there, before Wills.
Yes, I would try very hard to trade down before taking a WR.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I'd be fine with taking Okudah or Simmons, for the obvious reasons, but Young will be gone, and it really looks like only one of Brown, Okudah or Simmons MIGHT be there. So I guess where we differ is I would take Brown IF he were there, before Wills.
Yes, I would try very hard to trade down before taking a WR.

No problem.

My main thing is this:

A solid RT would represent the single greatest upgrade in talent on offense. And Simmons at ILB would represent the biggest upgrade to the defense.

Why draft a DL who may play 50 to 65% of the total snaps over an ILB or RT who may play closer to 80 or 90% of their snaps? Especially when Peters, Allen, Phillips, & Bullard are already there.

Young - Wont be there
Okudah - probably wont be there
Simmons - Probably wont be there
Wills - May be there
TRADE BACK


Those are my 1st 5 choices in that order. After that, more risk comes in to the picture.

 

[Solar7]

No problem.

My main thing is this:

A solid RT would represent the single greatest upgrade in talent on offense. And Simmons at ILB would represent the biggest upgrade to the defense.

Why draft a DL who may play 50 to 65% of the total snaps over an ILB or RT who may play closer to 80 or 90% of their snaps? Especially when Peters, Allen, Phillips, & Bullard are already there.

Young - Wont be there
Okudah - probably wont be there
Simmons - Probably wont be there
Wills - May be there
TRADE BACK


Those are my 1st 5 choices in that order. After that, more risk comes in to the picture.

All of those guys on the DL are just guys though. A stud at DT - even if it's for a lesser amount of snaps than some other positions - is a great start to help our linebackers make plays.

Also, if all of those listed above are gone, I don't know who is going to want to trade up.

But at the end of the day I don't have any strong feelings about taking Brown over an OT. I'd just be happy and understanding.

 

[Dr. Jones]

If QW wasn’t that guy at the NFL level.... what makes you think DB is??

makes no sense.