Devin Booker future extension

[Hoop Head]

Sure but it’s the best general single, levelled (adjusted for minutes and pace) indicator of a player’s output. Not perfect but definitely relevant.

And the classic example of its relevance is Booker - hang around this board long enough and you’d think he’s one step away from the MVP trophy at times until you look at his PER and you scratch your head wondering why it’s so low...he can’t shoot very well is why.


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He won the 3pt contest this year. He's a good shooter. It's a matter of getting him better shots in the game though to increase his shooting percentage. Booker can and does shoot well but since he's stuck being one of two offensive options in our starting lineup he's forced to take a lot of shots every night. Warren is the only other somewhat consistent offensive player in the starting 5. Chandler/Len, Chriss/Bender, and Ulis/Payton aren't scorers. If the Suns can add another scorer this offseason I think we'll see Booker's shooting percentage get better because he won't have to force so many shots and he'll also have more possessions where he's not doubled by the opposition.

Booker's shooting percentage is very similar to other SG's who are the first option for their team. It should increase as he gets some help also. He's shooting 43% this year, Klay Thompson is shooting 46% for his career, James Harden is shooting 44% for his, Vince Carter is shooting 43% for his career, Kobe shot 45%, Ray Allen shot 45%, Tracy McGrady shot 43%, and Dwyane Wade is shooting 47% for his career but he doesn't have the range of the others or that Booker does. Of those players I think most people would say Wade is the worst shooter of the bunch but he has the highest shooting percentage. To me that says that shooting percentage doesn't tell the whole story when you're talking about scorers like Booker.

 

[3rdside]

Okay, ignoring your first paragraph where you’ve managed to repeat back exactly what I Posted a few posts ago, I would agree with you that shooting % doesn’t tell the whole story. I’ve got to run again so can’t dig into it but at first glance I should be comparing efg% not fg%...to say Ray Allen and Booker are comparable shooters at this stage is ridiculous (efg% .530 vs .485); miles apart right there.


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[Hoop Head]

Read the article I posted a page back by The Ringer ... GM’s are becoming wary about dishing them out and we shouldn’t be any different.


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GM's may be wary handing out max deals nowadays but if you think any opposing team would think twice about offering Booker the max then you're not following the NBA very closely. Booker is definitely a max player at this point, coming off his rookie contract when the max is only 25% of the salary cap compared to the max for veterans which is 30-35% of a teams cap. That extra 5-10 percent makes a huge difference and the 2nd max deal that players sign hurts teams more because it pays them into their 30's when the players start declining in terms of their output but their salary is increasing. That's what that article mainly discussed, the 2nd max and the supermax deals. Booker won't be getting that though.

Players getting maxed out coming off of their rookie contracts though hasn't changed much. Since it's still the normal 25% it's not as hard for teams to figure if a player is worth it or not. They can always let the player hit restricted free agency and match whatever offer they get if they think the player may not be worth it. That also saves them a little bit because the offer sheet that a player signs has smaller increases each year because a player can only get 5% increases from a new team in free agency compared to the 8% increase if they resign with their own team. It also doesn't get that extra year that teams can sign their players to, so it's 4 years instead of 5. Doing that with Booker would be a mistake though. You want him locked in for as long as possible and you don't want to risk another team courting him to the point where he asks the Suns not to match whatever offer he signs.

 

[3rdside]

Dude I already wrote everything you’re writing back at me about extensions, that content is what kicked the re-ignition of this thread off.

And again, as you didn’t seem to get me the first three times I said it - he’s a max player, i wholeheartedly agree, but I reserve the right to do a little digging first to reach that conclusion.


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[Hoop Head]

Okay, ignoring your first paragraph where you’ve managed to repeat back exactly what I Posted a few posts ago, I would agree with you that shooting % doesn’t tell the whole story. I’ve got to run again so can’t dig into it but at first glance I should be comparing efg% not fg%...to say Ray Allen and Booker are comparable shooters at this stage is ridiculous (efg% .530 vs .485); miles apart right there.


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Through their first 3 years they had very comparable shooting percentage, even their efg%. Most would say that Allen is one of the best shooters in NBA history. I'm not saying that Booker is also one of the best shooters in NBA history but he is a good shooter. Booker's efg% is .485 while Allen's was .490 through his first 3 years. Their regular FG% isn't very different either with Booker at .426 and Allen at .434. Allen didn't carry his team like Booker but he did score 16.6 ppg. Comparing their 3pt shooting, Allen shot .372 from 3 to Booker's .364. Again, very comparable, and if you want another advanced stat their TS% is very close as well with Booker's at .542 and Allen's at .545. So take your time to come up with another way to change the criteria so you can paint Booker as a poor shooter.

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[Hoop Head]

Dude I already wrote everything you’re writing back at me about extensions, that content is what kicked the re-ignition of this thread off.

And again, as you didn’t seem to get me the first three times I said it - he’s a max player, i wholeheartedly agree, but I reserve the right to do a little digging first to reach that conclusion.


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You keep questioning it, whether he's a max player or not. Every post you've made you've tried to state why he's not a max player. So you finally say he's worth the max but you're upset because someone is trying to dispute the ways that you've put him down? Excuse me for having an opinion and posting about it. You keep posting things wrong with Booker's game and saying that he's being paid based on potential and not production when his production has earned him the max just as much as his potential. You don't think he's produced and he's been a poor shooter but I don't agree with that and I'm not alone in thinking that either. I posted reasons why I disagree but you're saying we've said the same things but I'm not seeing that. I wouldn't be saying what I have if you made that clear.

 

[3rdside]

Change my criteria? Classic, from a guy who’s just brain farted regurgitated info at me twice in two posts.

Devin Booker is not an all around good shooter because his fg% and efg% are in the bottom half of the league and his ts% he’s 175th.

Frame it how you like but they are the facts.




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[3rdside]

You keep questioning it, whether he's a max player or not. Every post you've made you've tried to state why he's not a max player. So you finally say he's worth the max but you're upset because someone is trying to dispute the ways that you've put him down? Excuse me for having an opinion and posting about it. You keep posting things wrong with Booker's game and saying that he's being paid based on potential and not production when his production has earned him the max just as much as his potential. You don't think he's produced and he's been a poor shooter but I don't agree with that and I'm not alone in thinking that either. I posted reasons why I disagree but you're saying we've said the same things but I'm not seeing that. I wouldn't be saying what I have if you made that clear.

Good grief.


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[Hoop Head]

Good grief.


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If we're saying the same thing then why are we disagreeing? Get a grip.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Change my criteria? Classic, from a guy who’s just brain farted regurgitated info at me twice in two posts.

Devin Booker is not an all around good shooter because his fg% and efg% are in the bottom half of the league and his ts% he’s 175th.

Frame it how you like but they are the facts.




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You are right on FG% and EFG%, but I don't get where you are getting the idea that he is 175th in TS%. It's kind of pointless to compare him to guys that take like 5-6 shots per game. If you narrow it down to only players that take at least 10 shots per game and he is 41st out of 110 players that qualify. If you narrow it down even further and go with only players that take at least 15 shots per game (the top tier scorers in the league) and he is 19th out of 34 players.

Though like I said his FG% and EFG% are a little on the low side, but his TS% certainly isn't.

 

[3rdside]

So he’s below average on two counts and marginally above average on one ... I repeat, he is not a good all round shooter.


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[Covert Rain]

Sure but it’s the best general single, levelled (adjusted for minutes and pace) indicator of a player’s output. Not perfect but definitely relevant.

And the classic example of its relevance is Booker - hang around this board long enough and you’d think he’s one step away from the MVP trophy at times until you look at his PER and you scratch your head wondering why it’s so low...he can’t shoot very well is why.


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No this is a way for FANS to make sense of it all. Do you think the coaches and scouts look at PER and call it a night!? It’s much more complicated than that.

Like I said, it’s an inductor but you have to look at more than just PER.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

So he’s below average on two counts and marginally above average on one ... I repeat, he is not a good all round shooter.


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First of all FG% is not a very good way of determining someone's efficiency because it favors players that don't shoot a whole lot of threes. As for EFG%, it is certainly a better barometer than FG%, but it's flaw is that it does not account for FTAs and FT% which is certainly a part of what makes a shooter a truly good shooter. TS% is easily the best shooting metric you can possibly use to determine someone's scoring efficiency. Fact is that Booker is more efficient than about half of the top scorers in the game and when you consider age on top of that (thus potential AND output) and it shows that the question of whether or not he should get max is pretty much pointless.

 

[Mainstreet]

How this thread is 5 pages long is beyond me. It should be two posts. The first asking the question. The second just saying “yes” with 500 likes.

Need some help Ouchie. The thread is now 6 pages long and going.

It's alive, I tell you. I feel like I created the monster, which I did, when I started the thread.

 

[Cheesebeef]

So he’s below average on two counts and marginally above average on one ... I repeat, he is not a good all round shooter.


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Remember these takes when you start siding with 3rdside as he champions Donicic over the other possible mega-studs in the lotto:

 

[Phrazbit]

So he’s below average on two counts and marginally above average on one ... I repeat, he is not a good all round shooter.


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Compared to other outside shooters at the same age... not only is he a good shooter but he is HISTORICALLY good. To knock his chops as a shooter is incomprehensible. Not only is he one of the best young players in the NBA but he rates as one of the best under 22 year olds in league history. Any question of him being worthy of a max deal is... unquestionably foolish.

 

[Hoop Head]

I know it's not a stat but Booker was also ranked 3rd in this years GM Survey for the best pure shooter in the NBA. He was the only player mentioned besides Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Like I said it's not a stat but I think that is evidence that he's not viewed as a poor shooter by league executives.

http://www.nba.com/gmsurvey/2017#/

 

[Chaplin]

Also keep in mind that EVERY team, regardless of their position in the standings, gameplans their entire games against us with Booker number one on their list. I know Warren has a lot of fans here, but GUARANTEED all our opponents gameplan for Booker, and only Booker. Want to argue about shooting percentages? Consider THAT.

 

[3rdside]

Compared to other outside shooters at the same age... not only is he a good shooter but he is HISTORICALLY good. To knock his chops as a shooter is incomprehensible. Not only is he one of the best young players in the NBA but he rates as one of the best under 22 year olds in league history. Any question of him being worthy of a max deal is... unquestionably foolish.

This is verging on ridiculous.

I'm largely talking about Booker right now, not necessarily to players his age historically - however I did raise LBJ and Durant as historical comparisons of what very strong shooting as rookies looks like and Booker is not even close to those two.

Again, what gauge other than TS% will tell me how good a shooter Booker is ?

For players playing > 500 minutes this season statistically he is below average.

Fact - 170th out of 324 players.

Every second day I look at his box score he throws up horrendous shooting %'s that's why I checked, and statistically I'm correct, so we're paying him on potential and not actual output. And questioning everything in this world is the right approach, not just blindly following what everyone says even though I have said he's worthy of the max.

The fact that he won the three point contest is nice, and that people say positive things about him also, but if he's going to take 2 point shots and miss them - lots of them - you can't just ignore these.

Here are the best TS% of shooters of the league right now (their actual rank out of ~500 players is in the first column meaning I've removed front court players) - you tell me how Booker's 0.566% stacks up.

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[3rdside]

Compared to other outside shooters at the same age... not only is he a good shooter but he is HISTORICALLY good. To knock his chops as a shooter is incomprehensible. Not only is he one of the best young players in the NBA but he rates as one of the best under 22 year olds in league history. Any question of him being worthy of a max deal is... unquestionably foolish.

And a second thing, of all those outside shooters who you say he compares favourable to at the same age...how many of them got a max contract coming of their rookie season?

 

[3rdside]

Also keep in mind that EVERY team, regardless of their position in the standings, gameplans their entire games against us with Booker number one on their list. I know Warren has a lot of fans here, but GUARANTEED all our opponents gameplan for Booker, and only Booker. Want to argue about shooting percentages? Consider THAT.

Right, so LBJ and Durant were just ignored when people played them...Booker should have the opportunity to improve his TS% of course, for the many reasons which I've raised already.

 

[hcsilla]

So he’s below average on two counts and marginally above average on one ... I repeat, he is not a good all round shooter.

He is below average on two counts that do not really count and above average on one which does count.

I don't really see why take FG% and efG into an account when they do not tell the whole story. TS does.

This seaon Booker improved considerably his playmaking, FG%, 3P% and FT% and therefore his TS. Hid did that while scoring more and playing for the worst team in the NBA. He is forced to take a lot of contested jumpers. He hits them (considering their difficulty) at at least a decent rate.

Better overall talent around him and improved team play will create more open shots for him which he is deadly from.

I understand the concerns about Booker defensively but as a shooter he doesn't leave much desirable after him while averaging 25PPG at age of 21.

He is by far the best player that the Suns had since Nash left, he improved heavily year by year, so I don't really see why the Suns should not build around him by giving a max. extension.

 

[3rdside]

If I say you come 170th in a race with 314 people in it how do you grade that performance?

And if Booker ranks 170th in TS% out of 314 people who played > 500 minutes this season, does that change your opinion?

These are important questions you need to consider when building a team because if Booker doesn’t improve his TS%, as unlikely as that is as I have said multiple times, then we have a potential problem in view of paying him max dollars.

And while Booker is a probable slam dunk for a max extension, which I’ve also said he’s worthy of multiple times, he’s not a definite slam dunk because his statistics don’t bear that out; go look lebron and Durant’s statistics at the same stage of their careers for what a definite slam dunk looks like.


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[3rdside]

Look at Andrew wiggins - 6’8”, silky smooth, a high potential trajectory (PER of 18.3 in his similar season to Booker’s 18.6), got the max and what happened next?

Dude is laying eggs on court this season.

And he, just like we’re gonna do with Booker, got paid for potential, not output, so that’s the same risk we’re taking ... albeit a smaller one all things considered.


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[JCSunsfan]

So he’s below average on two counts and marginally above average on one ... I repeat, he is not a good all round shooter.


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Wha??! Ha? Not serious! Can’t be.