Diamondbacks @ Boston Series

[Hired Goon]

CoyotesHockeyFan: The stats on Qualls are very misleading. He racks up his good numbers when the game is either won or out of reach. Also his ERA is deceiving because he often inherits runners and fails to get the job done. He has been absolutely terrible this year. He has six losses already and many more to come if he continues to be placed into pressure situations. He is not clutch at all. Please put Juan Cruz in this spot.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

CoyotesHockeyFan: The stats on Qualls are very misleading. He racks up his good numbers when the game is either won or out of reach. Also his ERA is deceiving because he often inherits runners and fails to get the job done. He has been absolutely terrible this year. He has six losses already and many more to come if he continues to be placed into pressure situations. He is not clutch at all. Please put Juan Cruz in this spot.

That doesn't explain away his WHIP, opposing average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. As far as close games and inherited runners go, his opposing average and on base percentage in "close and late" situations are just .220 and .279 respectively in 91 at bats. With runners on base, the on base percentage is a more than reasonable .297 in 62 at bats. If he was nearly as terrible as people are saying, the numbers wouldn't be close to what they are.

 

[Desert Rat]

Yes, his stats are misleading. Qualls always has been a set-up and/or mop-up man. That being said, he should be able to come into a game in the 8th inning with 2 on and a 3-run lead and not let the dam burst. That scoreless streak at the start of the season put the wrong seed in everyone's mind about him. In the handful of games I saw him pitch when he was with Houston, he got shredded and I was not thrilled to hear that the D-backs traded the 2007 save leader for him.

 

[Lefty]

Well, every team in the NL West lost tonight except the Giants.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

That doesn't explain away his WHIP, opposing average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. As far as close games and inherited runners go, his opposing average and on base percentage in "close and late" situations are just .220 and .279 respectively in 91 at bats. With runners on base, the on base percentage is a more than reasonable .297 in 62 at bats. If he was nearly as terrible as people are saying, the numbers wouldn't be close to what they are.

You can say whatever you want about his numbers, as soon as Qualls came into the game I said we would lose the game. Needless to say, I am not a prophet, but who didn't see that one coming? He has just been awful lately, and if you want to bring up stats, why don't you bring up the fact that he has allowed 8 of 16 inherited runners to score? As encouraging as the last win was, that's how discouraging this loss was. This is one of the few games you can blame entirely on one player.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

You can say whatever you want about his numbers, as soon as Qualls came into the game I said we would lose the game. Needless to say, I am not a prophet, but who didn't see that one coming? He has just been awful lately, and if you want to bring up stats, why don't you bring up the fact that he has allowed 8 of 16 inherited runners to score? As encouraging as the last win was, that's how discouraging this loss was. This is one of the few games you can blame entirely on one player.

An interesting read on inherited runners: http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/234

There's no question that Qualls has pitched very poorly his last two outings, nobody is going to argue otherwise. However, throwing around "terrible" and "awful" to describe his season is really having a short memory.

 

[boondockdrunk]

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
 2008 29 [URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2008.shtml"]ARI[/URL] [URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL_2008.shtml"]NL[/URL]   1   5  37   0   0   0   6  1   35.3   27   18   12   2   12   38   3   4   150   1   0  3.06  4.48  147 1.104

I don't know how that can be considered "nothing but a disappointment" given those numbers. A 3.06 ERA (147 ERA+), 1.10 WHIP, along with career bests (so far) in opposing slugging, on base percentage, and Ks/9 is nothing to scoff at. Especially when you compare what he has done to what the more expensive Jose Valverde has done this year.

*unfortunately those numbers are before today so they'll rise a bit, but the point still stands.

He has already reached his career high in losses PRIOR to the All-star break and is very close to his career high in blown saves in a year. Further more, he has only had one hold in the last month that was in a one run game. He has been extremely inconsistent, which is what was said to be his strong point when he came over. The reason his numbers are misleading is because he did not give up an earned run in the first month. Since then he has been like the under performing like the rest of the team.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

For all of the talk about "misleading stats," it sure is interesting to see that pitching records are still being brought up. The guy managed to pick up an L without giving up an earned run, just goes to show that wins and losses are hardly a bastion of truth. Everybody has their own idea of how much (or how little) a pitcher's record actually means, let's just say that I put more stock in what pretty much all of the other metrics are stating.

 

[Desert Rat]

Qualls was credited with a loss without allowing a run ONCE this year, that was on April 14. Remove that and he's 1-5, still not good. In his last full inning of work, 5 earned runs on 8 hits. In the 8th inning, why not go with Cruz? I know, if Qualls gets out of the inning unscathed, we don't have this conversation (and the D-backs probably win).

Looking at the next four games, this team will be under .500 in no time...and still be leading the divison!

 

[DWKB]

18 Runs allowed and only 12 of the Earned. Qualls appears to have been victim of the worst of the DBacks defense when he's on the mound. There is one thing that hurts his W/L column.

A fun little stat that isn't predictive and has some flaws, but would be enlightening to the Qualls discussion is WPA or Win Probability Added.

WPA (win probability added): WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.

or simply, the chance the team wins the game after the play minus the chance they win before the play. Screw up and it's negative, do well and it's positive.

Qualls WPA is -1.36 over the course of the year. The second worst reliever is Edgar Gonzalez at -.30.

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Diamondbacks&season=2008

Qualls WPA for last year and the year before were 1.77 and 1.30. So he was effective when the DBacks went after him, but has not shown to be so this year. The perception of choking is evident in the large negative WPA number.

 

[dogpoo32]

We can't even steal on a knuckleball pitcher. We are ridiculously bad on base.

 

[BC867]

By the way, I like how Cadiotti is going to toss batting practice tomorrow to get the guys ready for Wakefield.

According to Grace, Conor Jackson hit one line drive against Candiotti in batting practice. The rest of the D'backs looked pretty bad.

'Hard to build confidence against a radio commentator throwing knuckleballs when the offense (especially the young players) have had their confidence ripped away by an extremely passive Manager.

It's not a coincidence that Jackson hit the line drive. He and O-Dog are the only D'backs not trying to put every pitch into the seats.

It's nice that two players have the self-discipline to rise above their Manager's limitations. Of course, that equates to a losing season.

If we lose to the Red Sox today, we'll be just one game over .500 .

What a disappointment.

 

[DiamondBacks5117]

Rjs pitched well enough to win this game. got out of some big jams.

 

[Lefty]

RJ with a very good outting but once again no run support.

The Red Sox fans are sick of seeing the CAR signs. They think it's a race.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=33165&st=260

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

Anything that ticks off Red Sox fans is ok by me.

 

[DiamondBacks5117]

did anyone else here grace say that cubs fans are happy win or lose? as much as i like grace and i no he knows a hell of a lot more about the cubs then i do i dont no about that statement even in todays legacy with the cubs.

 

[Lefty]

A little too late Melvin.

 

[Mulli]

did anyone else here grace say that cubs fans are happy win or lose? as much as i like grace and i no he knows a hell of a lot more about the cubs then i do i dont no about that statement even in todays legacy with the cubs.

there is a lot of truth to that statement. At least in Wrigley itself.

 

[AZCB34]

did anyone else here grace say that cubs fans are happy win or lose? as much as i like grace and i no he knows a hell of a lot more about the cubs then i do i dont no about that statement even in todays legacy with the cubs.

The problem is defining the word "fan". If you use the literal meaning of fanatic, then Grace is 100% dead wrong. True Cubs fanatics (fans) care about winning and losing...they get pissed when the teams loses one game let alone 100 years of futility.

If you define "fans" by those who come out to the ballpark each game, then the statement begins to hold more truth but mostly to the bleacher fans than those fans who are down the lines and behind home plate. The statement however still paints with way too broad a brush.

 

[AZCB34]

Maybe my view of Johnsons performance is too critical but even though he left the game close, I personally don't think he pitched that great of a game. The problem is the jams he got himself into he creates these jams too often and more often than not, he will be hurt by the jams he puts himself in. He was walking way too tight a line for where he is in his career last night.

 

[Skkorpion]

Very tough losses. And LA moved to only 3 back.

Watched them all. Will watch the next games in Florida with great interest.

 

[mjb21aztd]

Man what a painful series we were in every damn game but found a way to blow them expect for one... The dbacks better find a way to win soon with flordia and the dodgers coming to town otherwise goodbye playoffs. GO DBACKS NOW

 

[ASUCHRIS]

An interesting read on inherited runners: http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/234

There's no question that Qualls has pitched very poorly his last two outings, nobody is going to argue otherwise. However, throwing around "terrible" and "awful" to describe his season is really having a short memory.

Bump for another quality performance by Qualls... Looks like we need to pick up another arm for the bullpen before the deadline.