Draft Combine Measurements for those interested

[JCSunsfan]

Joe Mama,

I haven't heard anything and I rather hope it stays that way - I don't care for his game. He's not much of a defender and doesn't work at it. He's also very inefficient on offense in spite of his pretty shot. I'd rather have him than Beasley but not by a large margin.

I really liked the way he was playing in the spring. He was very active defensively and effective. I disagree with EK, he is a decent defender and he has a really nice stroke on his shot.

I would really rather they cut Beasley.

If they draft Otto Porter, it might not make sense to keep Johnson around. If he gets much more than the minimum it doesn't make sense either.

I think the Lakers have an interest in him.

 

[Superbone]

Conclusion Zeller is a Giraffe.

That jumps like a gazelle.

 

[slinslin]

Zeller did very well at the combine. He is a much better athlete than Markieff Morris. His leaping ability, speed, and agility are nearly the best in the history of the draft (yes the history of the draft) for a player of his size. Yes, his wingspan is not that great. But its the only negative thing to come out of the draft regarding him.

I don't want the Suns to draft him, but I think he has a good career ahead of him as a pf.

His athletic testings does not pass the eyeball test so it is meaningless to me.

Ingame athleticism is different from making one jump in a combine drill.

There are a lot more negative things about Zeller, he disappeared against big opponents. And his wingspan is not "not great" it is absolutely horrible. Whoever picks that guy in the top 10 will regret it big time.

 

[Cheesebeef]

His athletic testings does not pass the eyeball test so it is meaningless to me.

Ingame athleticism is different from making one jump in a combine drill.

looks, i'm with ya on Zeller not passing the eye-ball test, but I'm curious how you can blow off his athletic stats, yet, you continually pimp Shabazz's athletic testings. that guy showed next to zero in-game athleticism and this while being more developed at age 20 then most of the guys he played with.

 

[slinslin]

looks, i'm with ya on Zeller not passing the eye-ball test, but I'm curious how you can blow off his athletic stats, yet, you continually pimp Shabazz's athletic testings. that guy showed next to zero in-game athleticism and this while being more developed at age 20 then most of the guys he played with.

like when?

 

[Phrazbit]

Zeller's numbers when teams got physical with him are enough to drop him well out of the lotto in my opinion. The guy was a ghost in so many big moments for Indiana this year. His inability to muscle up combined with very little outside ability... and I just dont see how he is going to make an impact in the NBA.

 

[JCSunsfan]

How's this for an "after the combine" change?

I ran the ESPN draft simulator today and it consistently has the Suns taking Oladipo over McLemore. McLemore slipped to the 7th spot on one run.

Hmmm. Why would that be?

 

[hcsilla]

How's this for an "after the combine" change?

I ran the ESPN draft simulator today and it consistently has the Suns taking Oladipo over McLemore. McLemore slipped to the 7th spot on one run.

Hmmm. Why would that be?

Because Chad Ford played with it a little bit.

 

[JCSunsfan]

For the sabre metrics geeks among us. These two guys are number maniacs and neither rate McLemore very high. I am not arguing for this, I just thought it is an interesting perspective given that Babby says this is going to be a big part of how the Suns evaluate.

http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/
http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=988

 

[AzStevenCal]

For the sabre metrics geeks among us. These two guys are number maniacs and neither rate McLemore very high. I am not arguing for this, I just thought it is an interesting perspective given that Babby says this is going to be a big part of how the Suns evaluate.

http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/
http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=988

That certainly isn't me. I have a hard time getting my mind around this kind of stuff especially when it's done at the college level. It's just such an uneven playing field that I have trouble accepting it has any real value. Not that I think the "eye test" is all that reliable either and for many of the same reasons. Anyway, I am surprised that Ben ended up rated so low by both guys. I think whoever drafts him 1st or 2nd will be disappointed but I think there will be plenty of disappointment from this class.

I still lean towards Bennett or Noel (unless we can trade into next year's draft) in large part because I think we're better off drafting in the top 5 next year than we are with any player in this draft Those two players have superstar ceilings but are more likely to bust especially early in their careers. But, if I were managing a team that was solid and on it's way up, my draft board would be Otto Porter, Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo, Trey Burke, Ben McLemore and Michael Carter-Williams in that order.

Steve

 

[BC867]

Guys, isn't there another factor in how a rookie will play out? The chemistry of the team around him, especially in his early years.

How will our top choices fit in? And, without a head Coach in place, what will they be fitting into?

 

[Errntknght]

I really liked the way he was playing in the spring. He was very active defensively and effective. I disagree with EK, he is a decent defender and he has a really nice stroke on his shot.

I would really rather they cut Beasley.

If they draft Otto Porter, it might not make sense to keep Johnson around. If he gets much more than the minimum it doesn't make sense either.

I think the Lakers have an interest in him.

I respect your opinion JC so I rewatched a couple of games that I hadn't yet erased - last Houston game here and New Orleans a few weeks before that. In the Houston game he had one good play - a block on Jones who came right him and challenged him. Seconds later Wes went flying by Parsons (his man) due to a ball fake and Parsons canned the corner 3. That was rather typical of his defense on Parsons the whole game. Other than that he stood watching several times when he could have helped against guys driving the lane. He was not exactly jogging back on defense but several times he could have and should have sprinted to help on breaks or near breaks but didn't.

A few other minor points against him - lowest Assist rate on the team and second lowest FT attempts (2nd to Marshall). Also highest 3pt attempt rate, shooting only 32%.

My thinking was that Hunter upped his minutes as a subtle way of tanking.

 

[Superbone]

Guys, isn't there another factor in how a rookie will play out? The chemistry of the team around him, especially in his early years.

How will our top choices fit in? And, without a head Coach in place, what will they be fitting into?

I'm pretty sure we'll have a head coach in place before the draft. We've still got a month and a week. (June 27)

 

[sunsfan88]

That certainly isn't me. I have a hard time getting my mind around this kind of stuff especially when it's done at the college level. It's just such an uneven playing field that I have trouble accepting it has any real value. Not that I think the "eye test" is all that reliable either and for many of the same reasons. Anyway, I am surprised that Ben ended up rated so low by both guys. I think whoever drafts him 1st or 2nd will be disappointed but I think there will be plenty of disappointment from this class.

I still lean towards Bennett or Noel (unless we can trade into next year's draft) in large part because I think we're better off drafting in the top 5 next year than we are with any player in this draft Those two players have superstar ceilings but are more likely to bust especially early in their careers.

Steve

What position do you think Bennett to play in the NBA? PF? Ok so his 6'7, 235lbs self is gonna match up against guys like Pau Gasol, Z-Bo, LMA, Duncan, Boozer, Lee, Griffin, etc?

Unless your telling me that Bennett is the next Kenneth Faried, he won't be that good at PF unless he grows 2-3 more inches.

Now at SF, he has great size for it but he does not have anything close to a SF's game. It would be like playing Beasley or Marcus Morris at SF.

Trust me, the combo forwards have not worked out in the NBA recently. Derrick Williams, Michael Beasley, Terrence Jones, among many others account to that.

But, if I were managing a team that was solid and on it's way up, my draft board would be Otto Porter, Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo, Trey Burke, Ben McLemore and Michael Carter-Williams in that order.

You would take Steven Adams over Oladipo, McLemore, McCollum etc? Interesting cause in most mocks, Adams isn't even a top 3 C.

 

[AzStevenCal]

What position do you think Bennett to play in the NBA? PF? Ok so his 6'7, 235lbs self is gonna match up against guys like Pau Gasol, Z-Bo, LMA, Duncan, Boozer, Lee, Griffin, etc?

Unless your telling me that Bennett is the next Kenneth Faried, he won't be that good at PF unless he grows 2-3 more inches.

Now at SF, he has great size for it but he does not have anything close to a SF's game. It would be like playing Beasley or Marcus Morris at SF.

Trust me, the combo forwards have not worked out in the NBA recently. Derrick Williams, Michael Beasley, Terrence Jones, among many others account to that.



You would take Steven Adams over Oladipo, McLemore, McCollum etc? Interesting cause in most mocks, Adams isn't even a top 3 C.

Maybe I didn't make it clear. I think Bennett has a pretty fair chance to bust. If he is willing to play defense, work on his inside game and play through contact, IMO, he could become the best power player in the game. BUT, I don't really expect it to happen. But I also don't really expect anyone from this draft to be a game changer.

I think there are several in next year's draft class that are well above anyone in this group and drafting Bennett or Noel will leave us roughly the same bad team we were this past season and trading Gortat puts us solidly in the run for number one. If either Bennett or Noel does happen to grow into his potential, it won't be right away. I'm not absolutely convinced my way is the right way, there are times I look at this and view it as a move of desperation. But then I look at our Phoenix Suns and I can't come up with a happy future that doesn't involve a desperate move or two.

Steve

 

[DWKB]

I'd say that McLemore's biggest concern is assertiveness. Ben is really too nice of a young man. While starting on a team with 4 seniors, McLemore had a very hard time taking control of the game. Even in his interviews the word was he was extremely polite, and rather naive. He will need someone to mentor him.

There is no question the offensive talent is there and while he didn't prove to be a really good on the ball defender his help defense and rebounding were really good for a guard.

These analyst seem to be relying heavily on weighting assertiveness on the court leading to production. If you think that's something that is likely to change, then you gotta take the talent, if you think it isn't ever likely to materialize, then it might make you hesitate on your pick.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I respect your opinion JC so I rewatched a couple of games that I hadn't yet erased - last Houston game here and New Orleans a few weeks before that. In the Houston game he had one good play - a block on Jones who came right him and challenged him. Seconds later Wes went flying by Parsons (his man) due to a ball fake and Parsons canned the corner 3. That was rather typical of his defense on Parsons the whole game. Other than that he stood watching several times when he could have helped against guys driving the lane. He was not exactly jogging back on defense but several times he could have and should have sprinted to help on breaks or near breaks but didn't.

A few other minor points against him - lowest Assist rate on the team and second lowest FT attempts (2nd to Marshall). Also highest 3pt attempt rate, shooting only 32%.

My thinking was that Hunter upped his minutes as a subtle way of tanking.

I was at the overtime game with Minnesota and I thought he was key in winning that game for us. There were a couple of others.

 

[Errntknght]

For the sabre metrics geeks among us. These two guys are number maniacs and neither rate McLemore very high. I am not arguing for this, I just thought it is an interesting perspective given that Babby says this is going to be a big part of how the Suns evaluate.

http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/
http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=988

Thanks for posting these links, JC. Hoopsanalyst didn't explain their methods at all. Shutupandjam didn't lay it out clearly but they regressed various college stats and player measurements for college players against how they fared in the NBA. One thing they said was that the system worked much better when they included combine measurements like standing reach and wingspan - but they didn't use them for their published results because many players don't have that info available.

One stunning thing they said was the single best college stat for predicting success in the NBA was steals (steals per 40 minutes, I presume, since that seemed to be their typical stat form.) Stunning because team steals in the NBA does not correlate well with winning at all - some years it has a negative correlation. I sorted each NBA position group(C,PF,SF,SG,PG) by steals per 40 and it generally looked random wrt to my notions of who is better, also approx. random wrt playing time, which is the coaches measure of who is better.

I'm tempted to dismiss them altogether for this because it just doesn't make sense to me that steals should have no apparent value in the NBA but great predictive value for college players. But they did give an example of applying their methods to a college draft class (2001,iirc) using data from their NBA games and overall I thought it rated the players pretty well even though most the players had little in the way of NBA playing time.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Paola Boivin ‏@PaolaBoivin 9h
ESPN's Chad Ford said these are #PhoenixSuns ' preferences if they land 1 of top three picks: Nerlens Noel, Victor Oladipo, CJ McCollum

 

[JCSunsfan]

OK. Zeller's standing reach is 8'10" does that mean he cannot play pf? I know that Kevin Love had the same standing reach and many discounted him as being too small to play pf.

Now that the lottery is over and we have the 5th pick, rather than 1-3, I am willing to look at every player fresh.

 

[AzStevenCal]

OK. Zeller's standing reach is 8'10" does that mean he cannot play pf? I know that Kevin Love had the same standing reach and many discounted him as being too small to play pf.

Now that the lottery is over and we have the 5th pick, rather than 1-3, I am willing to look at every player fresh.

Standing reach and wingspan are important but those numbers relative to height are even more important. Kevin Love was under 6'8 at the combine (without shoes) so his standing reach isn't quite the concern that Zeller's is.

Steve

 

[Gaddabout]

Zeller is the kind of player who will string together some big numbers against the weaker teams, then disappear in the big games. He'll pick up some stats and people will say he's so much better than his critics said he would be, but he'll never have the value of a top 10 pick.

And slin, I suggest you are out by your lonesome on length not being as important in the backcourt. NBA scouts strongly disagree with you, especially at the 2/3. Skills aside, length is a defining characteristic of what scouts want at every position.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I really liked the way he was playing in the spring. He was very active defensively and effective. I disagree with EK, he is a decent defender and he has a really nice stroke on his shot.

I would really rather they cut Beasley.

If they draft Otto Porter, it might not make sense to keep Johnson around. If he gets much more than the minimum it doesn't make sense either.

I think the Lakers have an interest in him.

bump. I was right