Draft Convo: Alabama WRs - Buyer Beware?

[Chopper0080]

I know there is a lot of love for Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle in this upcoming draft, but are we ignoring the overall lackluster careers of recent Alabama WRs drafted?

Jerry Jeudy has had an ok year, but he has had 10 drops on the season.

Henry Ruggs has been underachieving and also has 3 drops on the year.

If we look at Alabama WRs drafted since 2014, this is what we get.

Kevin Norwood 2014 4th
Amari Cooper 2015 1st
ArDarius Stewart 2017 3rd
Calvin Ridley 2018 1st
Henry Ruggs 2020 1st
Jerry Jeudy 2020 1st

Lets compare with LSU Tiger WRs drafted
Odell Beckum 2014 1st
Jarvis Landry 2014 2nd
James Wright 2014 7th
Malachi Dupree 2017 7th
DJ Chark 2018 2nd
Russell Gage 2018 6th
Justin Jefferson 2020 1st

It is something to consider and one reason I like Terrance Marshall over any of the Alabama WRs in this draft.

 

[DVontel]

Ridley is the best WR out of everyone here. Jeudy needs to improve his hands but he also has hospital ball king Drew Lock throwing him the ball.

What will help Terrance is he’ll most likely go to the best QB unlike Waddle & Smith.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Then we all know that Keim must have his eyes on Bama now after drafting from small schools lol

 

[SoonerLou]

Jeudy's has drop issues but I really believe if he was with a better QB he'd be more productive.

Ruggs always seemed like an odd fit with Carr. However, I think he's going to have a big 2 year.

Marshall does fit the size/speed that we need though.

Ridley is the best WR out of everyone here. Jeudy needs to improve his hands but he also has hospital ball king Drew Lock throwing him the ball.

What will help Terrance is he’ll most likely go to the best QB unlike Waddle & Smith.

Wouldnt shock me if the Dolphins double dip with both Bama wrs.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

Ridley and Cooper would be the best WR's on the Cardinals, by a long-shot, if not for Hopkins.

 

[Russ Smith]

I guess I don't follow do you think there's something Saban does wrong coaching WR's, or they just tend to be overrated? Alabama often has so much talent it's hard to judge any one kid so you think the RB or QB is awesome but he's got first rounders on the OL and at WR too so how do you know?

LSU has had very good Wr's, that's clear. On your list Cooper is terrific, averaging around 75 catches and 6 Td's a year with good not great QB's. He's not the best Wr ever but he's very good. Ridley is a rising star, terrific season this year, plays with a guy you left off the list in Julio Jones who in his prime was as good as anybody else on either list. I know you said since 2014 but he played for the same coach the others did, Saban. So this year with Jones older and beat up, Ridley became the man. He's had 3 really good years with an aging QB and playing alongside Jones 2 of those years.

As Dvontel said you can't really judge Jeudy(see what I did there) because his QB is so bad, it's like Skelton or Navarre bad the throw might be there or it might not, it might lead you into a LB or Safety ready to "put you to sleep" or it might not. So he's had too many drops absolutely but his QB is terrible and he's getting the best DB every week in man or zones to his side in zones. I still firmly believe he's going to be a very good NFL WR for years to come. He runs terrific routes, has size, has speed, and he actually has pretty good hands too IMO despite all the drops this year.

All that said I prefer Waddle this year because he can return punts too. Smith probably could but Waddle has proven he can and be elite at it, at the college level. We IMO really need a guy who can do that and take the short passes and create yards after catch. as I said yesterday Waddle would be what we hoped Andy would be.

I would take Marshall over either Bama kid too btw, not because of the school but because he's 6'3", I don't mention him not because I don't like him but because I assume he's a top 10 pick so will be off the board before we pick. I expect him to be a terrific pro.

 

[Russ Smith]

Jeudy's has drop issues but I really believe if he was with a better QB he'd be more productive.

Ruggs always seemed like an odd fit with Carr. However, I think he's going to have a big 2 year.

Marshall does fit the size/speed that we need though.

Wouldnt shock me if the Dolphins double dip with both Bama wrs.

Ruggs honestly is what I thought he was and said so over and over pre draft, very fast but not a polished kid. He may some day be a terrific WR, but there was a reason he was the 3rd or 4th best Wr on that team in college, he's not as good as the other kids yet

 

[SoonerLou]

Ruggs honestly is what I thought he was and said so over and over pre draft, very fast but not a polished kid. He may some day be a terrific WR, but there was a reason he was the 3rd or 4th best Wr on that team in college, he's not as good as the other kids yet

I agree. However, he has that rare speed and was viewed as the leader of that wr group. I think he's going to be one of those guys by year 2 or year 3 that really breaks out.

Maybe a Tyreke Hill leap from year 1 to year 2.

 

[DVontel]

I guess I don't follow do you think there's something Saban does wrong coaching WR's, or they just tend to be overrated? Alabama often has so much talent it's hard to judge any one kid so you think the RB or QB is awesome but he's got first rounders on the OL and at WR too so how do you know?

LSU has had very good Wr's, that's clear. On your list Cooper is terrific, averaging around 75 catches and 6 Td's a year with good not great QB's. He's not the best Wr ever but he's very good. Ridley is a rising star, terrific season this year, plays with a guy you left off the list in Julio Jones who in his prime was as good as anybody else on either list. I know you said since 2014 but he played for the same coach the others did, Saban. So this year with Jones older and beat up, Ridley became the man. He's had 3 really good years with an aging QB and playing alongside Jones 2 of those years.

As Dvontel said you can't really judge Jeudy(see what I did there) because his QB is so bad, it's like Skelton or Navarre bad the throw might be there or it might not, it might lead you into a LB or Safety ready to "put you to sleep" or it might not. So he's had too many drops absolutely but his QB is terrible and he's getting the best DB every week in man or zones to his side in zones. I still firmly believe he's going to be a very good NFL WR for years to come. He runs terrific routes, has size, has speed, and he actually has pretty good hands too IMO despite all the drops this year.

All that said I prefer Waddle this year because he can return punts too. Smith probably could but Waddle has proven he can and be elite at it, at the college level. We IMO really need a guy who can do that and take the short passes and create yards after catch. as I said yesterday Waddle would be what we hoped Andy would be.

I would take Marshall over either Bama kid too btw, not because of the school but because he's 6'3", I don't mention him not because I don't like him but because I assume he's a top 10 pick so will be off the board before we pick. I expect him to be a terrific pro.

There’s a chance Marshall doesn’t even go in the first round.

 

[Southpaw]

My theory has long been, beware of drafting WRs too high, and do not be mesmerized by bloated stats. Alabama, LSU (recently) Clemson i.e have WRs with gawdy #s that just might be the result of operating in loaded systems. Good players on great teams , individually, might not be so great. Probably sounds stupid, but Alabama has 3 wrs this year who are on everyone's 1st round big board. That is absurd. Is Mac Jones really an NFL QB? When he is throwing long balls to WRs who are open by 30 yards, that is one helluva luxury. Example is look at Tua.
I don't believe Jeudy was ever covered at Alabama as he is in the NFL. I was high on Tee Higgins last year. A WR who made his name catching contested balls and is having a very good rookie year on a bad team. To me he translated better to the NFL game.

 

[Russ Smith]

I agree. However, he has that rare speed and was viewed as the leader of that wr group. I think he's going to be one of those guys by year 2 or year 3 that really breaks out.

Maybe a Tyreke Hill leap from year 1 to year 2.

Yeah I don't know where that view came from he was the 3rd best WR on that team at best and I would argue 4th behind Jeudy, Smith and Waddle. Scouts fell in love with the speed and I think people like to be contrary to people as we got closer to the draft started to say Ruggs might wind up better, but anybody that actually saw them in college knew that wasn't the case. He's the best athlete yes but he was never that great at Bama he was picked based on potential. his freshman year he had 6 TD's on 12 catches, for his career 24 on 98, so the TD to catch ratio was great but he was never the top option. Ridley was freshman year, jeudy was soph and junior year.

He's freaky fast it would not stun me to see him become a great player but he's not polished, doesn't run good routes, doesn't have the feel etc. He may get there but it was obvious in college he wasn't there yet.

Even this year his best play is the game winner against the Jets, in a game where he lost a fumble, and caused an INT by tipping a pass right in his hands up in the air. So his best moment was in one of his worst games.

I'd wager there's very few NFL teams who'd trade a first round pick for him right now. We could use his speed but I'd rather have someone who can do more, like Waddle.

 

[Chopper0080]

I guess I don't follow do you think there's something Saban does wrong coaching WR's, or they just tend to be overrated? Alabama often has so much talent it's hard to judge any one kid so you think the RB or QB is awesome but he's got first rounders on the OL and at WR too so how do you know?

LSU has had very good Wr's, that's clear. On your list Cooper is terrific, averaging around 75 catches and 6 Td's a year with good not great QB's. He's not the best Wr ever but he's very good. Ridley is a rising star, terrific season this year, plays with a guy you left off the list in Julio Jones who in his prime was as good as anybody else on either list. I know you said since 2014 but he played for the same coach the others did, Saban. So this year with Jones older and beat up, Ridley became the man. He's had 3 really good years with an aging QB and playing alongside Jones 2 of those years.

As Dvontel said you can't really judge Jeudy(see what I did there) because his QB is so bad, it's like Skelton or Navarre bad the throw might be there or it might not, it might lead you into a LB or Safety ready to "put you to sleep" or it might not. So he's had too many drops absolutely but his QB is terrible and he's getting the best DB every week in man or zones to his side in zones. I still firmly believe he's going to be a very good NFL WR for years to come. He runs terrific routes, has size, has speed, and he actually has pretty good hands too IMO despite all the drops this year.

All that said I prefer Waddle this year because he can return punts too. Smith probably could but Waddle has proven he can and be elite at it, at the college level. We IMO really need a guy who can do that and take the short passes and create yards after catch. as I said yesterday Waddle would be what we hoped Andy would be.

I would take Marshall over either Bama kid too btw, not because of the school but because he's 6'3", I don't mention him not because I don't like him but because I assume he's a top 10 pick so will be off the board before we pick. I expect him to be a terrific pro.

My personal hypothesis is that Alabama has such a talent advantage that their opponents can only scheme for a few different players. This creates one on one opportunities for guys like Ruggs facing players who are not NFL type DBs. The Alabama player naturally dominates and then is over-drafted especially if they do not have dominate physical attributes or multiple ways to win.

Let's compare Jerry Jeudy and Justin Jefferson. both are good route runners but if you look at playerprofiler you can see that Jefferson also has a much better speed score and burst score which shows he has a better shot to also win based on his athleticism. Terry McLaurin was viewed as a route runner type player but where people missed is that they didn't count his 4.3 speed as much as they should have. So 6', speed to beat you deep, and precise route-running to snap off routes and get wide open.

This is my concern is Waddle and Smith this year. Both are good WRs but they also both seem to only be able to win one way. Waddle is fast but also a 5'9 or 5'10 guy. Smith is a sharp route runner but i have not seen the 4.3 speed to make me think that is much different than a better KeeSean Johnson. Dvontel called me out on this being ridiculous and I admit I got a little carried away.

 

[Russ Smith]

There’s a chance Marshall doesn’t even go in the first round.

YEah I actually confused him with JaMarr Chase who is the guy I'd take first at WR. I'd take Waddle and Smith over Marshall. Although Chase is not as tall as I thought he was, he's pretty special

 

[Chopper0080]

There’s a chance Marshall doesn’t even go in the first round.

This is the value I think teams should be looking for because these receiving classes are so stacked because every high school is running spread sets and is putting athletes at WR.

Terrance Marshall at the end of round 1 or top of round 2 is great value.

You can take Jaylen Waddle (who is risky) in round 1 or Rondale Moore (who is also risky but brings same speed) in round 2. Hell, Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney are also very similar even if they aren't quite as good.

Devonta Smith in round 1 or Chris Olave, who I think ha salmost the exact same skill set in round 2 or top of 3. Amon-Ra St Brown is similar as well.

 

[DVontel]

My personal hypothesis is that Alabama has such a talent advantage that their opponents can only scheme for a few different players. This creates one on one opportunities for guys like Ruggs facing players who are not NFL type DBs. The Alabama player naturally dominates and then is over-drafted especially if they do not have dominate physical attributes or multiple ways to win.

Let's compare Jerry Jeudy and Justin Jefferson. both are good route runners but if you look at playerprofiler you can see that Jefferson also has a much better speed score and burst score which shows he has a better shot to also win based on his athleticism. Terry McLaurin was viewed as a route runner type player but where people missed is that they didn't count his 4.3 speed as much as they should have. So 6', speed to beat you deep, and precise route-running to snap off routes and get wide open.

This is my concern is Waddle and Smith this year. Both are good WRs but they also both seem to only be able to win one way. Waddle is fast but also a 5'9 or 5'10 guy. Smith is a sharp route runner but i have not seen the 4.3 speed to make me think that is much different than a better KeeSean Johnson.

Yea, super big disagree at that last statement.

 

[Russ Smith]

My personal hypothesis is that Alabama has such a talent advantage that their opponents can only scheme for a few different players. This creates one on one opportunities for guys like Ruggs facing players who are not NFL type DBs. The Alabama player naturally dominates and then is over-drafted especially if they do not have dominate physical attributes or multiple ways to win.

Let's compare Jerry Jeudy and Justin Jefferson. both are good route runners but if you look at playerprofiler you can see that Jefferson also has a much better speed score and burst score which shows he has a better shot to also win based on his athleticism. Terry McLaurin was viewed as a route runner type player but where people missed is that they didn't count his 4.3 speed as much as they should have. So 6', speed to beat you deep, and precise route-running to snap off routes and get wide open.

This is my concern is Waddle and Smith this year. Both are good WRs but they also both seem to only be able to win one way. Waddle is fast but also a 5'9 or 5'10 guy. Smith is a sharp route runner but i have not seen the 4.3 speed to make me think that is much different than a better KeeSean Johnson.

Waddle is fast but what sets him apart is he is fast twitch, he is quick, he's a guy that makes you miss etc, it's why he's so good on punt returns. The general thing on a punt return is you have to make the first guy miss, that's your job, and he usually does.

Smith is probably a better WR than Waddle but not by much, add in the returns I prefer Waddle.

Chase is the guy I think is going to be a star, he's big enough although not as big as I thought, he's fast enough, he has good hands, he makes plays in the air etc. Wally is right it's hard to judge when they are so loaded they don't have to make many contested catches, but Chase has that ability to do so, and he's shown he can separate, and run after the catch. I just again see him as a guy long gone when we pick.

 

[Chopper0080]

My theory has long been, beware of drafting WRs too high, and do not be mesmerized by bloated stats. Alabama, LSU (recently) Clemson i.e have WRs with gawdy #s that just might be the result of operating in loaded systems. Good players on great teams , individually, might not be so great. Probably sounds stupid, but Alabama has 3 wrs this year who are on everyone's 1st round big board. That is absurd. Is Mac Jones really an NFL QB? When he is throwing long balls to WRs who are open by 30 yards, that is one helluva luxury. Example is look at Tua.
I don't believe Jeudy was ever covered at Alabama as he is in the NFL. I was high on Tee Higgins last year. A WR who made his name catching contested balls and is having a very good rookie year on a bad team. To me he translated better to the NFL game.

When Derek Stingley absolutely locked him down, I was kinda out on Jeudy based upon where you would have to take him in the draft. Top of round 2? Sure. Great value there but not a top 20 guy.

 

[Chopper0080]

Yea, super big disagree at that last statement.

Fair. I do think Smith runs in the 4.4s while KeeSean ran a 4.6. I will edit.

 

[SoonerLou]

Yeah I don't know where that view came from he was the 3rd best WR on that team at best and I would argue 4th behind Jeudy, Smith and Waddle. Scouts fell in love with the speed and I think people like to be contrary to people as we got closer to the draft started to say Ruggs might wind up better, but anybody that actually saw them in college knew that wasn't the case. He's the best athlete yes but he was never that great at Bama he was picked based on potential. his freshman year he had 6 TD's on 12 catches, for his career 24 on 98, so the TD to catch ratio was great but he was never the top option. Ridley was freshman year, jeudy was soph and junior year.

He's freaky fast it would not stun me to see him become a great player but he's not polished, doesn't run good routes, doesn't have the feel etc. He may get there but it was obvious in college he wasn't there yet.

Even this year his best play is the game winner against the Jets, in a game where he lost a fumble, and caused an INT by tipping a pass right in his hands up in the air. So his best moment was in one of his worst games.

I'd wager there's very few NFL teams who'd trade a first round pick for him right now. We could use his speed but I'd rather have someone who can do more, like Waddle.

I wasnt talking in terms of him being as polished. Just in terms of being a leader/alpha.

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I like Waddle as well. Devonta Smith's frame worries me. Maybe he's a throwback to the Isaac Bruce, Marvin Harrison days of slender guys who could really ball.

 

[DVontel]

This is the value I think teams should be looking for because these receiving classes are so stacked because every high school is running spread sets and is putting athletes at WR.

Terrance Marshall at the end of round 1 or top of round 2 is great value.

You can take Jaylen Waddle (who is risky) in round 1 or Rondale Moore (who is also risky but brings same speed) in round 2. Hell, Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney are also very similar even if they aren't quite as good.

Devonta Smith in round 1 or Chris Olave, who I think ha salmost the exact same skill set in round 2 or top of 3. Amon-Ra St Brown is similar as well.

Rondale doesn’t have the same twitch, route running, hands, contested catching, or even speed as Waddle. Rondale is way more raw than you would like to believe.


Olave just seems “above-average” to me while Smith beats him in almost everything I can think of. Especially level of comp where Smith completely obliterated Derek Stingley in both their 2019 & 2020 meetings. I like Amon-Ra a lot, but I don’t think he the same game-speed Smith does.

 

[Russ Smith]

When Derek Stingley absolutely locked him down, I was kinda out on Jeudy based upon where you would have to take him in the draft. Top of round 2? Sure. Great value there but not a top 20 guy.

Stingley only played him once in college that I'm aware of, last year, Jeudy had 5 catches 71 yards and a TD in a loss. LSU basically doubled him the whole game which led to Smith going bananas, 7 catches 213 yards 2 TD's. That's teh game Waddle had the 77 yard punt return I posted the video of yesterday. Tua threw for over 400 yards in that game. So not great stats but again they doubled him, most teams did last year.

Because I didn't expect us to get D Hop basically all I did when watching college last year was watch WR's I assumed we were picking one. I locked in on Jeudy first, Lamb second. I think I watched 7 or 8 Alabama games that year if Jeudy was doubled, Tua went to Smith, or Ruggs or Waddle. if Jeudy wasn't doubled, you got the Michigan game. The team that really stopped him was Auburn and they basically played him with 2 guys the entire game and at times had a 3rd in the area, it was absurd to watch but it worked, Auburn won the game. It's why I was never high on Tua in college and I agree with Wally about Mac Jones, they're just picking which wide open WR to throw to but at Bama, most of those WR's are NFL first round picks too so it's even more absurd.

Right now for Wr's the schools producing the most in alphabetical order are Alabama, LSU and Oklahoma.

 

[Russ Smith]

I wasnt talking in terms of him being as polished. Just in terms of being a leader/alpha.

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I like Waddle as well. Devonta Smith's frame worries me. Maybe he's a throwback to the Isaac Bruce, Marvin Harrison days of slender guys who could really ball.

Yeah what you love about Smith is he makes the big plays downfield, he has shown he can play the ball in the air too that play against LSU and Stingley this year was unreal, although he probably pushed Stingley prior to the catch. He is very skinny though you are right.

We need someone who can stretch the field, both can, so can JaMarr Chase but of the 3 the only one I think who might be on the board when we pick is Waddle. And we need a CB more IMO

 

[Chopper0080]

Rondale doesn’t have the same twitch, route running, hands, contested catching, or even speed as Waddle. Rondale is way more raw than you would like to believe.


Olave just seems “above-average” to me while Smith beats him in almost everything I can think of. Especially level of comp where Smith completely obliterated Derek Stingley in both their 2019 & 2020 meetings. I like Amon-Ra a lot, but I don’t think he the same game-speed Smith does.

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It's a highlight video, but it is why I disagree with you about the gap between Moore and Waddle. Moore is a run after catch beast and his start-stop is pretty amazing. Also, he is doing it on Purdue, with a Purdue QB, and against Ohio St, Wisconsin, and other more talented programs. He is doing this when he is about the only player teams are game planning for.

 

[DVontel]

When Derek Stingley absolutely locked him down, I was kinda out on Jeudy based upon where you would have to take him in the draft. Top of round 2? Sure. Great value there but not a top 20 guy.

Are you talking about Fulton? Cause Stingley covered Smith the whole game.


Also, would you not draft Stingley in the top 20 since Smith obliterated him in consecutive years?

 

[DVontel]

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It's a highlight video, but it is why I disagree with you about the gap between Moore and Waddle. Moore is a run after catch beast and his start-stop is pretty amazing. Also, he is doing it on Purdue, with a Purdue QB, and against Ohio St, Wisconsin, and other more talented programs. He is doing this when he is about the only player teams are game planning for.

I think the gap between Waddle & Moore is much wider than the gap between Moore & a Elijah. Waddle plays bigger than his height while Moore plays just like a 5’8 dude would play like. Toney excites me way more than Moore if anything.