Draft grades

[slinslin]

I find it hilarious how other teams fans can't grasp why we picked Ennis and calling doom on the Suns to give up Bledsoe now.

As if we would replace Bledsoe our 2nd best player with a #18 pick.

Dragic is de facto our shooting guard, Ennis will be Bledsoe's backup. Hopefully the 2nd unit will play more under control with him which was a huge problem last year.

I am not a fan of Ennis in particular but backup PG was one of our biggest needs.

 

[CardsFan88]

This was a good article from the Suns website, some great insight into what McD was thinking.

http://www.nba.com/suns/news/suns-get-little-bit-everything-busy-draft-night

McD on Warren

“He has a unique ability to put the ball in the basket,” McDonough said. “He’s got good size and strength, but more importantly he has terrific instincts and a fantastic touch around the basket. So we feel like he has a lot of the things you can’t teach.”

McD on Ennis

“We really value having multiple ball-handlers on the floor,” McDonough said. “We think our ability to run pick-and-rolls on either side of the floor and also to push the ball in transition – either via the pass or via the dribble – we feel like that’s a strength for us. We wanted to keep adding to it.”

Ennis’ particular brand of playmaking, as well as his crunch-time chops, made him Phoenix’s target at No. 18.

“His composure at his age stands out,” McDonough said. “If you looked at his numbers in close and late games, they were terrific, like unbelievably good with what he did down the stretch of games with the game on the line…that’s pretty rare for a 19-year-old freshman.”

McD on Bogdanovic

“Bogdan Bogdanovic is one of the top players in Europe,” McDonough said. “[6-foot-6], good strength. He’s very productive in the Adriatic League and the Euro League as well. He’s a fairly proven commodity for a 22-year-old player. We anticipate that he’ll return to Europe and play with Partizan…we’ll be very interested in his development.”

“We feel like he’s a guy who has a good chance to be an NBA rotation player at some point down the road,” he added.

McD on Brown

“Alec’s an elite shooter at 7-foot-plus,” McDonough said. “We feel like he will be a very good fit for our team with our style.”

I wonder what McD would think about Bogdanovic wanting to come over this year. Maybe he'll be our D-League guy.

 

[slinslin]

Maybe because Marshall is a complete annoying d-bag. I don't think it only had to do with his lack of game, I think he didn't fit in the locker room.

Funny but that is the feeling I got from Marshall as well. His constant twittering seemed annoying and I got the feeling that he didn't take criticism too well.

 

[Covert Rain]

Whenever you have that many 1st round draft picks, supposedly with one of the deepest drafts in a long time.....you should walk away with at least one franchise player.

The Suns miserably failed in that category. In fact, this might be because nobody freaking likes Sarver. Seriously....what hope does this franchise have if nobody is willing to deal with the Suns or when they do they spit in our face (a la Golden State)?

I mulled this over last night and the prospects of this franchise under Sarver are pretty grim IMO. We can't attract the Kobe's and the Lebron's in free agency. We can't pull off any blockbuster trades. Building through the draft on mediocre picks is never going to get you anywhere. If your only avenue to rebuild the franchise is through the draft....how the hell are you going to do it without drafting a #1 type guy?

Without drafting a franchise player...the teams ceiling will forever be...good enough to get to the playoffs but nobody to carry the team the distance.

Anybody? Somebody talk me down from the ledge because I just don't see this team EVER getting a franchise player under Sarver.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Too bad we didn't have the 51st pick as well, we could have gotten Giannis Antetokoumnpo's younger bro. Would have had to give that an A! As it was I give them a B, based on the comments of others and some optimism.

Actually, Thanasis is about to turn 22. Giannis is the youngest veteran player in the league and will still be 19 when the season starts.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

Whenever you have that many 1st round draft picks, supposedly with one of the deepest drafts in a long time.....you should walk away with at least one franchise player.

The Suns miserably failed in that category. In fact, this might be because nobody freaking likes Sarver. Seriously....what hope does this franchise have if nobody is willing to deal with the Suns or when they do they spit in our face (a la Golden State).

I mulled this over last night and the prospects of this franchise under Sarver are pretty grim IMO. We can't attract the Kobe's and the Lebron's in free agency. We can't pull off any blockbuster trades. Building through the draft on mediocre picks is never going to get you anywhere. If your only avenue to rebuild the franchise is through the draft....how the hell are you going to do it without drafting a #1 type guy?

Anybody? Somebody talk me down from the ledge because I just don't see this team EVER getting a franchise player under Sarver.

Really? How many drafts even have a franchise player and how often can you find one at 14 or below? These picks had more value than they would in a typical draft but it's not because it was loaded with franchise players.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

As if anyone can even say right now who the franchise players in this draft were and considering there are only maybe 10 franchise players in the entire NBA it might very well be no franchise players at all in this draft unless Embiid gets fully healthy.

 

[Covert Rain]

Really? How many drafts even have a franchise player and how often can you find one at 14 or below? These picks had more value than they would in a typical draft but it's not because it was loaded with franchise players.

Steve

Yes....really. I think you missed the entire point. I never said there was a franchise player in every draft nor that the Suns could find one where they have been drafting.

If this team has no other options to build a title contending team except through the draft.....how can you have any hope of getting that done where this team is drafting? They can't even parlay multiple picks into getting you the best shot a franchise player.

There are no guarantees that drafting a #1 player will get you said franchise player...he could be a bust. However, at least your in the game and at least you have a shot.

What shot do the Suns have in their current state? The team never drafts low enough to get a legit shot, we can't pull of blockbuster trades and we don't attract tier 1 free agents.

Please explain where this teams prospects lie if the endgame is chasing a title.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yes....really. I think you missed the entire point. I never said there was a franchise player in every draft nor that the Suns could find one where they have been drafting.

If this team has no other options to build a title contending team except through the draft.....how can you have any hope of getting that done where this team is drafting? They can't even parlay multiple picks into getting you the best shot a franchise player.

There are no guarantees that drafting a #1 player will get you said franchise player...he could be a bust. However, at least your in the game and at least you have a shot.

What shot do the Suns have in their current state? The team never drafts low enough to get a legit shot, we can't pull of blockbuster trades and we don't attract tier 1 free agents.

Please explain where this teams prospects lie if your chasing a title.

Nope. Didn't miss the point.

Steve

 

[CardsFan88]

Here's a link to yesterdays presser

http://www.nba.com/suns/front-office-2014-picks

It's clear we got the guys we wanted. We got the guys we were willing to potentially trade up for. Instead they fell to us and we didn't have to give up picks or players.

I also think we should feel better when we get multiple reports of how badly Toronto wants one of our draft picks.

The presser will start at 230 UMST, or almost 2 hours from now.

http://www.nba.com/suns/draft-2014

 

[Covert Rain]

Nope. Didn't miss the point.

Steve

Your response indicates you did considering your questions were not points I was making....just saying.

 

[devilalum]

As if anyone can even say right now who the franchise players in this draft were and considering there are only maybe 10 franchise players in the entire NBA it might very well be no franchise players at all in this draft unless Embiid gets fully healthy.

And the fact that they are all 19 or 20 doesn't help either.

 

[Covert Rain]

As if anyone can even say right now who the franchise players in this draft were and considering there are only maybe 10 franchise players in the entire NBA it might very well be no franchise players at all in this draft unless Embiid gets fully healthy.

Nobody can tell and it's true there might not be. However, you are not even playing the game unless your in a position to draft "potential" franchise players which the Suns are never in a position to do.

And the fact that they are all 19 or 20 doesn't help either.

EXACTLY!

 

[AzStevenCal]

Your response indicates you did considering your questions were not points I was making....just saying.

It wasn't that difficult to understand.

Steve

 

[tobiazz]

Here's a link to yesterdays presser

It's clear we got the guys we wanted. We got the guys we were willing to potentially trade up for. Instead they fell to us and we didn't have to give up picks or players.

I *really* want to see their draft board. How high would they trade up for these guys? What would they trade?

 

[Covert Rain]

Nonsense. You wrote it in English, I understood it perfectly. How can anyone misunderstand this statement "Whenever you have that many 1st round draft picks, supposedly with one of the deepest drafts in a long time.....you should walk away with at least one franchise player."? You said we should walk away from the draft with AT LEAST ONE franchise player. IOW, we really should have been able to net a couple of franchise players because we had three middling draft picks. That's the way the world works. That's why every team has a dozen franchise players lying around. And the nice thing, you can tell as soon as the draft is over whether or not you've bagged your quota of superstars.

Steve

Dear Lord. Maybe I should have said at least one franchise caliber player. I think it's universally known that not all players thought of as franchise players in the draft pan out. That doesn't stop them from being labeled franchise caliber players in the draft. My point was to be in a position to get one of these players.....not that the player would actually pan out...which nobody could possibly know at this stage.

The fact that so many teams have "dozen franchise players lying around" is inconsequential. They at least had an opportunity to get their hands on one where the Suns are always on the outside looking in.

Again...you are responding to points I was not making. I was not inferring that with multiple picks the Suns could get their hands on multiple franchise players. However, I was inferring that they SHOULD have been able to parlay those picks to move up in the draft to get a chance to get one. If that player pans out or not doesn't matter. At least they had a shot. Right now...where they have been drafting....how will this franchise turn into a contender?

 

[SirStefan32]

You are not going to find a franchise player at #14. Trading up is not as simple as people make it out to be. Nobody is going to give you a #3 pick for anything the Suns have with the exception of MAYBE Dragic. Sounds like a lot of people had pretty unrealistic expectations of what someone could get with picks 14, 18, 27, and 50.

 

[Chaz]

Everyone keeps saying that we needed a pure PG. Well in that case why did we trade Marshall? He was a pure PG too. Hell he even had games with us where he put up a ton of assists.

In one word? Attitude.

 

[sunsfan88]

I think what DarrenG is saying is that we need to tank and get a high pick so that we have a "CHANCE" at getting a franchise caliber player instead of constantly getting role players at best type guys with where we pick.

At least that's my guess at what he's saying.

 

[Covert Rain]

You are not going to find a franchise player at #14. Trading up is not as simple as people make it out to be. Nobody is going to give you a #3 pick for anything the Suns have with the exception of MAYBE Dragic. Sounds like a lot of people had pretty unrealistic expectations of what someone could get with picks 14, 18, 27, and 50.

Don't disagree with that at all. I don't think trading period is easy to do and I think Chap made the point it takes two people to tango. I think this franchise is going to have to take HUGE risks to become a contender.

Can this team draw a tier 1 free agent? IMO...no. Can this team pull off a blockbuster trade? Sarver has had the team for 10 years and all indications are no.

What is left? Somehow landing a franchise player via the draft IMO.

I think what DarrenG is saying is that we need to tank and get a high pick so that we have a "CHANCE" at getting a franchise caliber player instead of constantly getting role players at best type guys with where we pick.

At least that's my guess at what he's saying.

Basically. However it has to happen....position ourselves to be higher in the draft to get a "chance" of getting a franchise player because drafting in the middle of the draft will guarantee us mediocrity indefinitely. Many people here believe we can't attract the likes of a LJ or pull off a blockbuster trade. If that is true...what's left? The draft right?

 

[mojorizen7]

You are not going to find a franchise player at #14. Trading up is not as simple as people make it out to be. Nobody is going to give you a #3 pick for anything the Suns have with the exception of MAYBE Dragic. Sounds like a lot of people had pretty unrealistic expectations of what someone could get with picks 14, 18, 27, and 50.

I've been away so forgive my ignorance...but accumulating protected #1 picks year after year doesn't seem to be the answer. You guys are right. Trading into the top 10 is very difficult, so is acquiring top shelf talent when your never picking in the top 10....regardless of how many other picks you have.
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[JCSunsfan]

I've been away so forgive my ignorance...but accumulating protected #1 picks year after year doesn't seem to be the answer. You guys are right. Trading into the top 10 is very difficult, so is acquiring top shelf talent when your never picking in the top 10....regardless of how many other picks you have.
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There is always the chance of getting that top shelf talent later, but those players are NEVER thought to be top talent on draft day.

So its get a top pick and be happy on draft day or draft as many as you can and wait (and develop) to see if something develops (like Kawhi, Tony Parker, Jeff Hornacek, Steve Nash, even Kobe was not that highly regarded etc).

If you want a can't miss type of player that everyone recognizes on draft day, then you just can't do it without an early pick.

 

[Mainstreet]

I find it hilarious how other teams fans can't grasp why we picked Ennis and calling doom on the Suns to give up Bledsoe now.

As if we would replace Bledsoe our 2nd best player with a #18 pick.

Dragic is de facto our shooting guard, Ennis will be Bledsoe's backup. Hopefully the 2nd unit will play more under control with him which was a huge problem last year.

I am not a fan of Ennis in particular but backup PG was one of our biggest needs.

My feelings exactly. The Suns needed another PG. After Bledsoe and Dragic who start, all the Suns had was Ish Smith. He is a player I like but if one of the Suns starting PGs goes down... well it is last season all over again.

 

[Covert Rain]

There is always the chance of getting that top shelf talent later, but those players are NEVER thought to be top talent on draft day.

So its get a top pick and be happy on draft day or draft as many as you can and wait (and develop) to see if something develops (like Kawhi, Tony Parker, Jeff Hornacek, Steve Nash, even Kobe was not that highly regarded etc).

If you want a can't miss type of player that everyone recognizes on draft day, then you just can't do it without an early pick.

Anything is possible but statistically unlikely. Here is a breakdown that I found that was done on first round draft picks over a 10 year period. They rounded up to the nearest full % so you are not going to likely see occasional top draft pick bust represented but this gives you an overall idea. I am sure this changes over time slightly but the statistical sample will probably stay pretty close to true.

They concluded that picks:

• 1-5 range, your chances are very good to land a star. 1st pick 70%, 2nd pick 60%, 3rd pick 85%, 4th pick 60%, 5th pick 60%. After #5 your chances drop significantly (less than 35%).
• [SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1] 6-10 range your chances are about 1/3 of the picks reach star status. [/SIZE][/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]6th pick 25%, [/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]7th pick 30%, [/SIZE][/SIZE]8th pick 35%, [/SIZE][/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]9th pick 30%, [/SIZE][/SIZE]10th pick 35%.[/SIZE][/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]11-20 - produces as many busts as stars. 11-16 usually end up as role players and 17-20 career bench warmers. #11th pick 15%, 12th 5%, 13th 20%, 14th 25%, 15th 10%, 16th 5%, 17th 20%, 18th 5%, 19th 5%, 20th 5%.
  [/SIZE][/SIZE]
• 21-30 range only 6% of picks become stars, and less than half even make it to role player caliber stats and this is bust city territory.

 

[mojorizen7]

Anything is possible but statistically unlikely. Here is a breakdown that I found that was done on first round draft picks over a 10 year period. They rounded up to the nearest full % so you are not going to likely see occasional top draft pick bust represented but this gives you an overall idea. I am sure this changes over time slightly but the statistical sample will probably stay pretty close to true.

They concluded that picks:

• 1-5 range, your chances are very good to land a star. 3rd pick 85%, 1st pick 70%, 2nd pick 60%, 4th pick 60%, 5th pick 60%. After #5 your chances drop significantly (less than 35%).
• [SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1] 6-10 range your chances are about 1/3 of the picks reach star status
  [/SIZE][/SIZE]
• 21-30 range only 6% of picks become stars, and less than half even make it to role player caliber stats.

[SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]
[/SIZE][/SIZE]

Saved me the typing & research. I knew that any picks in the latter half of the 1st rd were like throwing dice.

I need to go back and look at how we were a bad team, and were still unable to get into the top 5 with the exception of the one pick last year.