Draft Philosophy

Harry

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Football Karma asked a question on the "Cut List" thread that got me started on draft philosophy. I covered the QB situation on that thread, but here's how I see the rest of it. Some long time readers may recall some of this from my draft guru days.

The Cards 1st pick could well be in the top 7. At that point you should be looking for a probable future Pro Bowl player. If you can find a player who looks uniquely special, that's even better. The other thing you need to do is to look at the pools at various positions and compare them to your team needs. What about BPA? Well the cap has changed the philosophy of most teams and mine as well. In the first three rounds I want the BPA, but I want that player to play a position of need.

This year much will depend on which FAs the Cards retain. For example, do they keep Minter? If so they likely don't pick an ILB. Clearly they need a CB to start opposite Peterson. The interior of the O-line must be rebuilt. I'm certain they keep Jones, but Campbell will likely leave and probably Okafor as well, so they need front 7 depth on the defense. They're thin at running back. They clearly need a WR capable of starting and may need 2.

I believe the Cards let Minter walk. Looking at key prospects I'm thinking the Cards go ILB, CB or WR. The most impressive player I see is Foster. He's not Kuechly. He's a different player, but in terms of impacting a game he's highly skilled. He's a force sideline to sideline. He controls the gap he targets and excels at shaking would be blockers. He's decent in pass coverage and certainly is better than Minter. He also is a better blitzer. The opposing offense must account for him on every play. He's better than Dansby. He'll plug the middle for years. He's a rare talent that can't be passed if available. If he's gone or the Cards re-sign Minter the best receiver is Williams. The best corner is Tabor. Either would be a good choice. I'd take Williams. Even if Fitz stays for a year Floyd's absence leaves a major void. Williams is more like Fitz than Floyd, but Boldin & Fitz took the Cards to a Super Bowl and neither was a burner. There are other good receivers but the need at WR is greater than corner, so I'm filling the biggest need with an outstanding player. Als the CB pool is deeper. I wouldn't criticize taking Tabor, but with Peterson to take the top receiver, the Cards' secondary has done well with simply a competent #2 corner. For certain one of these 3 players will be there when they choose. This should be a no brainer!
 

football karma

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With Browns (twice), 49ers, Jets and Bears all ahead of the Cards, it's prob safe to assume that one of the top three QBs won't be there

After that, other than Leonard Fournette -- nearly every other player on the board would really help. Jabril Peppers is questionable-- only in that Buccanon plays that role. Outside of that -- would you blame them if Jonathan Allen fell and they took him?
 

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With Browns (twice), 49ers, Jets and Bears all ahead of the Cards, it's prob safe to assume that one of the top three QBs won't be there

After that, other than Leonard Fournette -- nearly every other player on the board would really help. Jabril Peppers is questionable-- only in that Buccanon plays that role. Outside of that -- would you blame them if Jonathan Allen fell and they took him?

Good post, Harry and karma.

A guy whom I think is going t fly up the draft boards is speed OLB Takk McKinley of UCLA. To add his speed to our pass rush would be sweet.
 

Jetstream Green

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With Browns (twice), 49ers, Jets and Bears all ahead of the Cards, it's prob safe to assume that one of the top three QBs won't be there

After that, other than Leonard Fournette -- nearly every other player on the board would really help. Jabril Peppers is questionable-- only in that Buccanon plays that role. Outside of that -- would you blame them if Jonathan Allen fell and they took him?

Then also safe to say the Browns with take the wrong QB lol
 

Bodha

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This will be an interesting draft. Heres a handful of my ideals:


1. If you want a franchise QB, you must be willing to pay up to get him. Meaning 1st round. And top 7 is a perfect place because one might just fall to us, we dont have to trade up. With that said, is he a franchise QB? Options are:

Deshone Kizer
Mitch Trubisky

Who knows on both. But if ever there was a time to get a QB, being a lotto team is a good time.

2. BPA - I dont like hardline BPA. We have David Johnson and 2 good backups. If Leonar Fournette is there when we pick, he is 100% the BPA. Hes an elite player.....but itd be a waste to take him. You have to be intelligent. Dont blindly draft BPA. Need is definitely a factor.

3. Personal favorites:

Reuben Foster - LB
Jamal Adams - S
Quincy Wilson - CB
Deshone Kizer- QB

All will probably be options. Please dont blow it Keim.
 
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Harry

Harry

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Wilson is a nice CB who would be even more highly rated if he wasn't playing opposite Tabor. I know guys who think he might be a safer choice than Tabor.

My concern with Kizer is judgment. He got the physical tools but I'm hearing the ND coaches think he doesn't take instruction well. They have, for instance, drilled him on throwing into double coverage and he still does it even when they're in field goal range. They think he can't read defenses like he should at this level of experience. It might be maturity, if so he may be fine. I just make him a high risk to take early.

I don't like taking safeties early, but that's old school and many have changed their philosophy on that issue.
 

Southpaw

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Please, no ILB in top 10 pick arena. My rule of thumb. If that is a priority trade out but don't pull a Pace/Bryant.

The beat down in Seattle may have cost The Cards a top ten slot. At the moment they are sitting at 11. With a win against the Rams they could drop as low as 16 ( I think).
 

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Great post Harry! I couldn't agree more. Foster is a special talent at LB. He has the strength to shed blocks and the quickness and agility to cover in space. Just not too many players in the league with his ability. Navarro Bowman and Thomas Davis come to mind when I watch him. He would be a significant upgrade from Minter.

Mike Williams reminds me a lot of DeVante Parker. Although injuries have hampered his development, I was a big fan of his abilities coming out of college. Williams has a frame similar to AJ Green. He also has long strides and deceptive speed that allow him to get over the top. He has very strong hands and is solid blocker.

I was actually just watching film of Tabor last night. Since I haven't had the chance to breakdown all of the top CB's in this very talented class, I can't say that he is definitively the best, but I can say that he is worth a top ten pick. I had to watch six or seven games unfortunately because of the lack of passing in the SEC as well as teams unwilling to challenge him. When they did target him, he was very impressive. He is physical in press, is as good as I have seen in a while at locating and challenging when the ball is in the air, and also has explosive movements to make quick breaks. This kid is ultra competitive! Where I also agree with Harry is that we don't need a number one like we do in other area's, and with this also being so deep we can get a very talented number two in the second or even third round.

I can't see us going wrong with any of these options. Hopefully one is still there when we are up!
 

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Alabama players worry me. They play on a roster with such good overall talent that often the individuals are not as good as they look as a unit. Synergism?
 

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Mike Williams reminds me of Floyd in a good way. Davis reminds me of Keenan Allen... Both easily talented enough to warrant Big Red taking them in the early teens.
 

Snakester

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Harry, one of my biggest concerns is we loose Campbell. If so, what do you think of taking Malik McDowell from the 10 to 15 spot as his replacement?
 

Russ Smith

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Good post, Harry and karma.

A guy whom I think is going t fly up the draft boards is speed OLB Takk McKinley of UCLA. To add his speed to our pass rush would be sweet.


2 scary things on McKinney, was hurt alot in college, and was really only very productive his last year. Everyone knew he was a good athlete but he was undersized and hurt quite a bit. The last year he got bigger, and played hurt off and on during the year. Very athletic kid but he strikes me as a boom or bust pick.
 

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Alabama players worry me. They play on a roster with such good overall talent that often the individuals are not as good as they look as a unit. Synergism?

There is definitely truth to this. For as many first round picks they have put in the NFL over the last decade or so, very few elite playmakers. After watching film Jonathon Allen falls in this category for me. Doesn't get the attention of other DL prospects, yet I don't see him fire by blocker into the backfield like I thought I would especially given his size. Many of his sacks are clean-ups too. I believe it was the Tennessee tape from this year that almost put me to sleep waiting for him to do something exciting.

I do think that Foster is in another class because he has elite athleticism for his position.
 

JeffGollin

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For consideration - a partial change in BPA Big Board philosophy.

Trend has been to (a) specially tailored hybrid positions and (b) individuals with specific attributes that fit a position. In fact, position-definitions have already started to change (PFF now replaces the old DE, DT, OLB and ILB positions with "Interior Linemen", "Linebackers" and "Edge Rushers." And we've already seen the Cards create the $LB position and move Tyran around like a chess piece).

As these newly-defined positions become more and more successful, there will be an increasing need for backups similar in size, skill and athletic attributes as the guy ahead of them. This may increase or diminish the BPA ranking of various prospect as the need to fill these hybrid positions increases.

Thus the traditional BPA approach is modified to place more weight on position-need and position-fit than just pure athleticsm.

The objective would be, for example, to acquire a Calais Campbell clone, a Tyran Mathieu clone, a Chandler Jones clone, a Deone Buccannon clone, a 6-4 220 lb "big" receiver (to replace Floyd/push Fitz) etc.

Call it the BFA (best fit available) approach
 
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Harry

Harry

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McDowell has a worrisome injury history. Cunnngham is climbing the boards. Vandy's play didn't help anyone today. Several would take him but not my choice. He may be more an athlete than an in your face player. I want tough in the middle. Minter has the right attitude, but is a little short on talent. Don't see him worth mid-first money. Others do.
 

Cbus cardsfan

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I'm telling everybody, watch Raekwon McMillan Saturday against Clemson. Not in round 1, unless trading down, but he's an excellent round 2 option.

Actually THE GUY to watch is LB Jerome Baker. He's only a sophomore(or RS Freshman) but he's going to be an absolute beast. He's the best looking LB I've seen at OSU in years.
 

b8rtm8nn

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For consideration - a partial change in BPA Big Board philosophy.

Trend has been to (a) specially tailored hybrid positions and (b) individuals with specific attributes that fit a position. In fact, position-definitions have already started to change (PFF now replaces the old DE, DT, OLB and ILB positions with "Interior Linemen", "Linebackers" and "Edge Rushers." And we've already seen the Cards create the $LB position and move Tyran around like a chess piece).

As these newly-defined positions become more and more successful, there will be an increasing need for backups similar in size, skill and athletic attributes as the guy ahead of them. This may increase or diminish the BPA ranking of various prospect as the need to fill these hybrid positions increases.

Thus the traditional BPA approach is modified to place more weight on position-need and position-fit than just pure athleticsm.

The objective would be, for example, to acquire a Calais Campbell clone, a Tyran Mathieu clone, a Chandler Jones clone, a Deone Buccannon clone, a 6-4 220 lb "big" receiver (to replace Floyd/push Fitz) etc.

Call it the BFA (best fit available) approach


I don't like that approach - it creates biases that prevent you from taking Russell Wilson or Aaron Donald - just take the best football players (weighted slightly based on current/future roster) and let the coordinators and coaches figure out the rest.
 
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Harry

Harry

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If Foster is gone I don't think the Cards will do better than Minter if his price is right, especially if the bonus component is low.
 

Reddog

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The objective would be, for example, to acquire a Calais Campbell clone, a Tyran Mathieu clone, a Chandler Jones clone, a Deone Buccannon clone, a 6-4 220 lb "big" receiver (to replace Floyd/push Fitz) etc.
I don't disagree with the theory but the execution is impossible for the rare examples you use here. How long has it taken us to get any pass rusher the likes of Jones so to think we get another is a stretch. Some positions would be more attainable and I think that Nkemdiche might have been that in theory.
 

TheCardFan

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The two most impressive players I have watched tape on so far are Ruben Foster and Corey Davis. Davis is a playmaker and has the type of sneaky speed/agility that can take it to the house on any play. He reminds me of a bigger Antonio Brown (obviously not as fast)...lots of slants, in routes, and screens that go for big yardage. He can also beat you deep but he does drop some easy passes at times.

Haven't been impressed with any other ILB's so far.

Mike Williams from Clemson reminds me of a less athletic Dez Bryant (Cowboys version). Dez was much more dominant in college (fast, athletic, explosive) than Wiliams. My concern with Williams is his lack of speed and difficulty getting separation. He will win most jump balls or back shoulder fades but physical corners like Norman will shut him down completely. In addition, he drops a lot of passes (easy ones) for a high profile WR. I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a 4.6 at the combine.
 
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