Draft Prospect Tidbits

[George O'Brien]

At some point it might be nice to discuss somebody other than U of A players. Really.

I cannot say if the scouts agree, but a large number of articles talk about Okafor suggest he is likely to be the #1 pick in the draft plus NBADRAFT.net has him at #1. I'm guessing that Dwight Howard's ranking may slip a bit although not enough to effect the Suns who are likely to be at #5 or #6.

The other major HS player, Josh Smith is getting a lot buzz right now. There is about a 50-50 chance he would be available when the Suns draft, but at 6'8" 214 he would be strictly a BPA pick.

The lottery big men other than Okafor and Howard (and he is tall but thin) are all projects.

Pavel Podkolzine - At 7'5" 305, (Russian playing in Italy) he is a lottery pick entirely based on his heigth. Every scouting report has more questions than answers about whether he is an NBA quality player.

Kosta Perovic - 7'3" 240. (Serbia) Kosta's stock has been dropping and he has been injured some this year. At 19 years old, he is very unpolished and would not contribute for a while.

Andris Biedrins - 6'11" 240. (Latvia) It is not a sure thing that Andris will come out this year (many boards do not even list him) and he is very young. - 18 years old. His offense is still developing but he is considered to be an excellant defender and rebounder with a great wing span.

Rafael Araujo - 6'11" 280 - BYU. Rafael is not even listed by some boards and is clearly below the radar so far. As a college senior, his age and maturity could be a real plus, especially if he is available using the Knicks pick. His college stats are pretty impressive: 18.2 ppg, 10.2 rpg, and he shoots 57% from the field. Being at BYU means that most sports writers have never seen him play and college seniors seem to get ignored. Llook at what happend to Josh Howard.

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Ideally I'd like to see the Suns get an impact big man on their first pick, but Okafor is the only one in this year's draft. Andre Iguodala would a nice pickup with the Knicks pick.

My second option would be to take the best player available with the first pick (Howard or Smith come to mind) and then get Araujo with the second pick.

I would not discount the possibility of trading down if the right guy is not available at their slot. Often teams will give up a future first to get someone they want to switch places. This would make a lot of sense if the best player available is a PG wihich is not likely what the Suns would want. For the Suns, someone like Iguodala might make sense as at late lottery pick, but not at #5.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Originally posted by George O'Brien

Pavel Podkolzine - At 7'5" 305, (Russian playing in Italy) he is a lottery pick entirely based on his heigth. Every scouting report has more questions than answers about whether he is an NBA quality player.

Andris Biedrins - 6'11" 240. (Latvia) It is not a sure thing that Andris will come out this year (many boards do not even list him) and he is very young. - 18 years old. His offense is still developing but he is considered to be an excellant defender and rebounder with a great wing span.

excellent post. a few notes:

pavel was fairly impressive, in just his athleticism alone, in his workout last year. so it's really a combo of his incredible size and apparently athleticism that has scouts excited. admittadly, his basketball skills have been reported to be waaaaay behind both his stature and athleticisim (for his size)

and i just read where andris and his family were at the all-star game and are seriously contemplating his entering the draft, but his mama has some reservations.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Pavel isn't worth it. He has bad ankles on a massive frame at a young age. That just isn't a good thing.

Also, he only had about 3 workouts last year, and from what I remember, it was more of a pre organized show than an actual workout. (The team scouts got to sit and watch in Chicago, while Pavel worked with a coach).

He hasn't really done anything well in the Euro leagues from what I hear. There are just so many questions about his actual ability that I would be nervous from teh start, but combine that with his ankles and I don't want to touch him at all.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr
Pavel isn't worth it. He has bad ankles on a massive frame at a young age. That just isn't a good thing.

Also, he only had about 3 workouts last year, and from what I remember, it was more of a pre organized show than an actual workout. (The team scouts got to sit and watch in Chicago, while Pavel worked with a coach).

He hasn't really done anything well in the Euro leagues from what I hear. There are just so many questions about his actual ability that I would be nervous from teh start, but combine that with his ankles and I don't want to touch him at all.

I don't think the Suns would risk it with him unless they were really sold that he will be able to stay healthy and actually contributed in the next couple of years. In other words they know they need a big guy, but they won't risk wasting that draft pick.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Joe Mama
I don't think the Suns would risk it with him unless they were really sold that he will be able to stay healthy and actually contributed in the next couple of years. In other words they know they need a big guy, but they won't risk wasting that draft pick.

Joe Mama

It would nice if Pavel actually played well in Europe, but so far his play has been pretty "ho hum".

Andris Biedrins is a bit of a sleeper. His size listing is probably a year old and I'm not sure many scouts have even seen him. He is almost certain to be available at the #5-#6 slot, so I would expect the Suns to take a very close look at him.

Some of the strategy involved will be to look at the likely needs analysis of the other early lottery teams:

Orlando
Chicago
Washington
Charlotte
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Atlanta
Cleveland
Miami
Philadelphia

If Orlando or Chicago goes 1st, they will take Okafor and never look back. Washington would be more likely to go for Howard since they have a number of big men, although they might trade one.

I'm guessing that Chicago would not take another HS player with their second pick. They may be interested in another guard or an SF (especially if Crawford and Williams get moved).

Washinton may also be looking for an athletic type swing player to back up Jerry Stackhouse and play some SG. They have some big guys, but their SG/SF players other than Stackhouse are not very effective. I would guess they would take Howard if he is available since he could play SF, but Deng, Warrick, and even Iguodala are possibilities. Josh Smith is a possibility but less likely.

Charlotte needs everything, depending on what they do in the expansion draft. Best bet would be a point guard to back up Eisely. Seriously, there are some really outstanding PG's this year that could contribute to the Bobcats right away.

Atlanta needs everything too. It seems unlikely that they would take a project player at this point. A PG like Gordon or Nelson are real possibilities.

For Phoenix at the #6 slot, Josh Smith is actually a reasonable possibility. He is not fill a need, but he is viewed as having more potential than almost anyone other than Okafor and Howard. Unless the player is a big man, anyone drafted by the Suns will not play much the first year. Teams like Chicago and Washington need players who can contribute immediately and might pass on a HS player.

Biedrins is smaller than the other Euro big guys, but may be further along in terms of playing D. He is almost certain to be available.

 

[PhxGametime]

Pavel bombed at Draft Combine finishing in last overall and didn't do well in any 1 area from what I remember - have yet to see him play but I believe he was overhyped. Olowokandi had stronger workouts and it seemed a few on this board believe he is overrated. Draft Pavel on size I can understand but he didn't test as well and Euro's get overhyped by reporters IMO.

 

[BMF]

If we get Luol Deng I would be happy. Okafor would be nice, but it would be an injustice not to start him, and we don't have anyway to do that with Amare.

Josh Smith would be good, but I am praying he goes to Indiana.

 

[slinslin]

Deng=Duke=Bust

Maybe if he averaged impressive numbers I would change my opinion but as of now don't touch any Duke guards.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Originally posted by slinslin

but as of now don't touch any Duke guards.

This coming from the person who was preaching how much better Corey Maggette was over Shawn Marion???

 

[George O'Brien]

Rafael Araujo Disappoints

I kept hearing people telling me how good Rafael Araujo is, but after watching him on TV tonight I have to say I was disappointed. He is really slow and much shorter guys were scoring on him up close.

He is likely to slip to the second round. He is from Brazil and might be worth a second on condition that he goes to Europe for a few years and loses about 30 pounds.

 

[Chaplin]

Re: Rafael Araujo Disappoints

Originally posted by George O'Brien
I kept hearing people telling me how good Rafael Araujo is, but after watching him on TV tonight I have to say I was disappointed. He is really slow and much shorter guys were scoring on him up close.

He is likely to slip to the second round. He is from Brazil and might be worth a second on condition that he goes to Europe for a few years and loses about 30 pounds.

Wow, all that based on a viewing of one single game? You must be the world's greatest scout!

 

[George O'Brien]

Re: Re: Rafael Araujo Disappoints

Originally posted by Chaplin
Wow, all that based on a viewing of one single game? You must be the world's greatest scout!

It did not take long to see he is slow. Of course I was influenced by the announcers that compared him to the great Joe Klein.

I am more used to seeing college guys look overpowering only to watch them struggle against the bigger, stronger, quicker NBA players. I've learned not to let great performances get me too excited about guys. But guys who look slow and ineffective against inferior players...

Unless there is a change in ownership, I don't think the Suns are ever going to change their philosophy to accomodate a slow power guy. White really does have talent, but he is too slow to play for the Suns even though he might succeed on a different team.

 

[Chaplin]

Re: Re: Re: Rafael Araujo Disappoints

Originally posted by George O'Brien

Unless there is a change in ownership, I don't think the Suns are ever going to change their philosophy to accomodate a slow power guy. White really does have talent, but he is too slow to play for the Suns even though he might succeed on a different team.

Do you WANT them to change, though? I for one like West Coast, running basketball. The grind-it-out Eastern style of ball that New York and Detroit like is boring to me. So, I would much prefer a much more mobile big man than one that can barely move. I held out hope that Big Jake would get some athleticism, but it just didn't happen, and he ended up really not fitting with us. (Funny that he was traded to Memphis, who is also a running team)

 

[George O'Brien]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Rafael Araujo Disappoints

Originally posted by Chaplin
Do you WANT them to change, though? I for one like West Coast, running basketball. The grind-it-out Eastern style of ball that New York and Detroit like is boring to me. So, I would much prefer a much more mobile big man than one that can barely move. I held out hope that Big Jake would get some athleticism, but it just didn't happen, and he ended up really not fitting with us. (Funny that he was traded to Memphis, who is also a running team)

No, I agree with you that the movement style is better. Big Jake was slow to begin with but seems even slower since his back surgery.

The key is for the Suns to realize that they cannot draft slow big men and hope they will become more athletic later. Part of the reason I am so hopeful about Lampe is that he has the necessary athleticism to play the position.

 

[slinslin]

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr
This coming from the person who was preaching how much better Corey Maggette was over Shawn Marion???

Yeah but it took Magette 4 years to get to that level. Duke guards are known to be busts.
It seems like they are just the product of the Duke system that makes them look good.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by slinslin
Yeah but it took Magette 4 years to get to that level. Duke guards are known to be busts.
It seems like they are just the product of the Duke system that makes them look good.

In the case of Deng, most people say he is still being evaluated more on his HS experience than what he has done in college. I haven't been overwhelmed by him when I've seen him and I don't see him as a fit for the Suns anyway.

BTW, just difficult, I might mention that a similar issue comes up with U of A guards. Some have done very well in the NBA and several have not.

 

[Joe Mama]

I was relatively high on Deng earlier in the college season, but the last couple of times I've seen him I've not been very impressed. Actually, I'm beginning to doubt that he will actually come out in this year's draft. He has mentioned several times that he still has a lot to learning college and will probably returned to Duke. Of course a lot of high school players and underclassmen say that only to come out when the money is right under their noses.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Joe Mama
I was relatively high on Deng earlier in the college season, but the last couple of times I've seen him I've not been very impressed. Actually, I'm beginning to doubt that he will actually come out in this year's draft. He has mentioned several times that he still has a lot to learning college and will probably returned to Duke. Of course a lot of high school players and underclassmen say that only to come out when the money is right under their noses.

Joe Mama

If he starts slipping on the draft boards it would be a serious mistake for him to come out too early. There is a huge price difference between being taken #5 or #15.

 

[F-Dog]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
At some point it might be nice to discuss somebody other than U of A players. Really.

What are you, an ASU fan or something?

I don't think much of Hassan Adams' draft prospects right now. He's short for a classic SG, which cancels out his hops somewhat, and his shooting and defense aren't good enough IMO for a player who doesn't bring much else to the table. I think Adams would really benefit from a full four years in college, but he'll probably come off the bench in the pros in any case.

I actually think that PF is where Adams is most effective at the UA. He's generally able to exploit the mismatch much better than the other guy can, and his inconsistent shot doesn't hurt the team as much, since there's room in the lineup for another defense-stretching guard.


I still haven't decided what Salim Stoudamire is going to look like at the next level. Lindsay Hunter? Eddie House? Tourette's-free Mahmoud Abdul-Rouf?


As far as the Suns go, this year's draft is looking very uncertain after #2, which is bad for any team with weak scouts.


I still think that the team would be better off with a F/C like Splitter or even Perovic instead of a slow full-sized center like Podkolzin or the Korean guy. Biedrins is starting to intrigue me, too, but it's hard to see where he plays as long as Cabarkapa and Lampe are around.

Beidrins and Josh Smith fall into the 'accumulating assets' category--not that the Suns won't go for one of them anyway if he grades out high enough.


Araujo's hands are what impressed me--they swallow the basketball like it's nothing. I agree he's way too slow to fit with the Suns, though. (It looked to me like the CSU kid was outplaying him.)

If the Suns are searching for a center with the Knicks pick, I'd rather see them take a guy with upside, like Al Jefferson. At that point, any center is going to be a crapshoot, so why not gamble on a young player with a high ceiling?

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by F-Dog

Araujo's hands are what impressed me--they swallow the basketball like it's nothing. I agree he's way too slow to fit with the Suns, though. (It looked to me like the CSU kid was outplaying him.)

If the Suns are searching for a center with the Knicks pick, I'd rather see them take a guy with upside, like Al Jefferson. At that point, any center is going to be a crapshoot, so why not gamble on a young player with a high ceiling?

I'm not sure a 6'9" HS center has enough upside to make a difference. I'm guessing that once he finds where he is projected to go in the draft, he will decide to get some college experience. At this point last year Lang was getting coverage and ended up dropping into the late second round. He got cut in training camp.

 

[F-Dog]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
I'm not sure a 6'9" HS center has enough upside to make a difference. I'm guessing that once he finds where he is projected to go in the draft, he will decide to get some college experience. At this point last year Lang was getting coverage and ended up dropping into the late second round. He got cut in training camp.

No, no--I didn't want James Lang. I wanted Kendrick Perkins.


When you're looking for a center with a mid-round draft pick, there's going to be something wrong with everybody you're looking at--even the ones who are coming out of high school. 6'9" isn't ideal, but if Jefferson is going to turn into another Oliver Miller (or Jahidi White with hands), he would be well worth the Knicks' pick.

Is Jefferson really that good, though? I guess that's for the Suns' scouts to decide...

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by F-Dog
No, no--I didn't want James Lang. I wanted Kendrick Perkins.


When you're looking for a center with a mid-round draft pick, there's going to be something wrong with everybody you're looking at--even the ones who are coming out of high school. 6'9" isn't ideal, but if Jefferson is going to turn into another Oliver Miller (or Jahidi White with hands), he would be well worth the Knicks' pick.

Is Jefferson really that good, though? I guess that's for the Suns' scouts to decide...

I guess I was hoping for more than Perkins who has played a TOTAL of 26 minutes this season.

I may be overly optomistic about Lampe's future, but he is much better than any big man coming out after Howard and Okafor. I'm just not sure I see the point of taking another project.

I am open to trading for someone with a lot of upside. For example, I would be open to trading the Knicks pick and even a future pick to Detroit for Milicic. It is highly unlikely that the Pistons would bite, but it all depends on how despirate the Pistons are to clear space to re-sign Okur. Darko's $3.8 million would give them enough cap space. This is not a deal the Pistons would want to do, but unless they can move Atkins or Campbell, they may NEED to do it.

 

[F-Dog]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
I guess I was hoping for more than Perkins who has played a TOTAL of 26 minutes this season.

I may be overly optomistic about Lampe's future, but he is much better than any big man coming out after Howard and Okafor. I'm just not sure I see the point of taking another project.

You make a good point about Perkins' PT, but then you undermine it by offering up Lampe (23 minutes) as an example of what you're hoping for.


Seriously, any HS center (like Perkins or Lampe) is going to be useless at first, and if you get one after the high lottery picks, he's going to be a long shot. I don't see anything wrong with the Suns having two or even three talented young center prospects at the same time.

I mean, what's the worst that can happen? That the Suns will have too many good centers?




BTW, Okur is high in the Pistons' esteem, but IMO Darko is even higher. I wouldn't bank on Detroit sending Darko away any time soon...

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by F-Dog
You make a good point about Perkins' PT, but then you undermine it by offering up Lampe (23 minutes) as an example of what you're hoping for.

Seriously, any HS center (like Perkins or Lampe) is going to be useless at first, and if you get one after the high lottery picks, he's going to be a long shot. I don't see anything wrong with the Suns having two or even three talented young center prospects at the same time.

I mean, what's the worst that can happen? That the Suns will have too many good centers?

BTW, Okur is high in the Pistons' esteem, but IMO Darko is even higher. I wouldn't bank on Detroit sending Darko away any time soon...

Actually the worst thing that could happen is a team of project players who won't play for several years. I'd be willing to go for Darko because I think he as vastly more potential than most of the young centers out there; but otherwise I am skeptical.

It is Ok to have a Lampe sitting on the bench. But does the team need two or three guys who are not ready to play? Each player has to evaluated individually. Who knew Amare would be an instant factor? The Suns did, but no one else which is why he lasted to #9.

 

[hcsilla]

Originally posted by George O'Brien


I may be overly optomistic about Lampe's future, but he is much better than any big man coming out after Howard and Okafor.

Is he?
Based on what?