Draft question

[BritCard]

Why can’t we have both? I’m taking a hard stand on fixing this offense. We need to stack this o-line, add a super wr, and a running back in addition to keeping Brown and Connor.
With the draft picks we have and free agency we can easily do that and STILL add to the defense.

As it is now, this offense is very easy to defend. Murray will add a little to that problem. The biggest mistake this organization can make once again would be to think Kyler is going to put THIS offense on his back and carry this team.
If Kyler is the guy we need to once and for all solidify the o-line and give him a plethora of weapons.

We can argue should we take the best o-lineman and second best wr or the best wr and second best o-lineman.
Find a RB like Auchane and a FA guard and BOOM, suddenly we have an explosive offense that can keep us in the game and help the defense.

Because defense has serious needs too.

On offense in round 1 I don't see any alternative than we have to choose between OL and WR as we also need a DT or Edge.

 

[BritCard]

Did we though? PJJ is struggling at RT and demanding a ton of additional support. Which means we're leaving The Captain on an island against the presumptive defensive player of the year.

I still like Beachum as a swing tackle; I think we have to draft someone younger to fill in behind him in the later rounds of the draft. I don't know what to think about our future at IOL. We have Marquis Hayes, Jon Gaines, Austen Pleasants, and Vitaly Gurman on IR or the practice squad; you'd love it if one of those guys becomes a rotational or back OL.

The Captain is still only 29! He could have three more solid years as a starter.

I think you spend some FA money on a veteran guard. Top of the market is likely to be about $15 million a year. Aaron Brewer (TEN), John Simpson (BAL), and Jon Runyan (GB) are likely the top guys; maybe one or two of them actually reaches free agency.

DJ is 30 in a month so will be 31 towards the end of next season. He already peaked 2 years ago.

I could buy into the idea that he's struggling because he has trash at guard next to him (and last year) and a vet upgrade at LG or a talented rookie like Beebe could raise his game. I can see that.

But I also think both Alt and Fashanu are tackle prospects that don't come around every year. There are top WR's in 4 out of 5 drafts.

Personally I think I'd go with Alt. It's close but Alt has only been playing tackle for 3 years. Tonnes of upside.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

I was ardently against drafting a center in a poor center class. Which has turned out to be a poor center class. I'm just generally against drafting poor players for the sake of ticking a box.

I don't mind disagreeing. It's that for years you have bemoaned lack of attention to the O line under Keim and his continuous stream of low round picks that didn't work out (ironically that you just mirrored above), and now we have the chance to remedy that and finally build from the trenches with Keim gone you want to shiny WR.

Have the shiny WR, just don't complain when the O line sucks and MHJ can't get the ball because Kyler is on his ass.

What you're saying is not completely off base Brit, but we just invested a lot of draft capital in the Oline.

How far away are our current starting five away from being good enough to compete for a championship?
IMHO, we (at least) need a legit starting LG and better depth. Humph will probably be okay for another year. Might have to do something about him for 2025.

IMO, the oline is not the place to have a lot of cap space and draft capital tied up. I'd be interested to see what the draft status/cap hits is for the Eagles and Chiefs Oline but I'm not asking you to do the research. I'll try to look at this over the weekend if I have some time.

 

[BritCard]

What you're saying is not completely off base Brit, but we just invested a lot of draft capital in the Oline.

How far away are our current starting five away from being good enough to compete for a championship?
IMHO, we (at least) need a legit starting LG and better depth. Humph will probably be okay for another year. Might have to do something about him for 2025.

IMO, the oline is not the place to have a lot of cap space and draft capital tied up. I'd be interested to see what the draft status/cap hits is for the Eagles and Chiefs Oline but I'm not asking you to do the research. I'll try to look at this over the weekend if I have some time.

Did we? A single first round pick and a 4th round guard/center?

Many of the top teams in the league have multiple 1st and 2nd round picks across the line.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Did we? A single first round pick and a 4th round guard/center?

Many of the top teams in the league have multiple 1st and 2nd round picks across the line.

FWIW, I wouldn't be opposed to using a 2024 2nd round pick on the oline. But you and several others are more knowledgeable about the depth/quality of the class so I'll absolutely defer to you if that would be a viable path forward.

 

[gmabel830]

I just did a mock draft on PFN's simulator, traded back with NE (getting #5 and a 1st & 2nd in 2025) and still got MHJ. Then took DT Newton from Illinois at 15. Managed to pick up an extra 3rd in 2025 from Washington along the way too.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I just did a mock draft on PFN's simulator, traded back with NE (getting #5 and a 1st & 2nd in 2025) and still got MHJ. Then took DT Newton from Illinois at 15. Managed to pick up an extra 3rd in 2025 from Washington along the way too.

That will never, ever happen. (barring injuries) It is more likely than MHJ goes 2, than 5.

 

[kerouac9]

Many of the top teams in the league have multiple 1st and 2nd round picks across the line.

Do they though? Again, it's not just top picks we're talking about here: It's top picks on rookie contracts, right? I'd argue that the draft status of a former 1st rounder on his second or third deal is less important than that he's proven to be a high-level player.

Let's look at the starting lines for the consensus three top teams:

Philly:
Jordan Mailata, T (7th round, 2018)
Jason Kelce, C (6th round, 2011(!!!!!))
Landon Dickerson, IOL (2nd round, 2021)
Lane Johnson, LT (1st round, 2013(!!!!))
Cam Jurgens, IOL (2nd round, 2022)

KC:
Trey Smith, OG (6th round, 2021)
Joe Thuney, OG (3rd round, 2016 -- FA signing)
Donovan Smith, T (2nd Round, 2015 -- FA signing)
Jawaan Taylor, T (2nd round, 2019 -- FA signing)
Creed Humphrey, C (2nd round, 2021)

Baltimore:
John Simpson, OG (4th round, 2020 -- FA signing)
Kevin Zeitler, OG (1st round, 2012 -- FA signing)
Tyler Linderbaum, C (1st round, 2022)
Morgan Moses, T (4rd round, 2014 -- FA signing)
Ronnie Stanley, T (1st round, 2016)

The Cards have 2 first rounders, a high second rounder, FroGOAT, and a dumpster fire starting on the OL. I don't think you need to continue pouring resources into the group; you just need to put someone who can play at LG.

 

[BirdGangThing]

FroGOAT's rating went down again - believe this is the 5th consecutive week in a row?

 

[gmabel830]

That will never, ever happen. (barring injuries) It is more likely than MHJ goes 2, than 5.

I totally agree, but these simulators don't always do the most realistic thing. On PFN Simulator, Chicago always offers #2 and #3 picks, and sometimes next year's #1 too, for the #1 pick. I highly doubt they'd offer that, even if they decided Williams was the guy they wanted.

 

[gmabel830]

Baltimore:
John Simpson, OG (4th round, 2020 -- FA signing)
Kevin Zeitler, OG (1st round, 2012 -- FA signing)
Tyler Linderbaum, C (1st round, 2022)
Morgan Moses, T (4rd round, 2014 -- FA signing)
Ronnie Stanley, T (1st round, 2016)

I saw Linderbaum just wreck someone downfield on a highlight and thought "Damn, I'd much rather have him than Brown at this point!"

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I saw Linderbaum just wreck someone downfield on a highlight and thought "Damn, I'd much rather have him than Brown at this point!"

Linderbaum would be Froholdt on the Cardinals...

 

[Stout]

Did we though? PJJ is struggling at RT and demanding a ton of additional support. Which means we're leaving The Captain on an island against the presumptive defensive player of the year.

I still like Beachum as a swing tackle; I think we have to draft someone younger to fill in behind him in the later rounds of the draft. I don't know what to think about our future at IOL. We have Marquis Hayes, Jon Gaines, Austen Pleasants, and Vitaly Gurman on IR or the practice squad; you'd love it if one of those guys becomes a rotational or back OL.

The Captain is still only 29! He could have three more solid years as a starter.

I think you spend some FA money on a veteran guard. Top of the market is likely to be about $15 million a year. Aaron Brewer (TEN), John Simpson (BAL), and Jon Runyan (GB) are likely the top guys; maybe one or two of them actually reaches free agency.

If you draft a top-10 pick tackle, he'd better be a LT.

 

[Stout]

I was ardently against drafting a center in a poor center class. Which has turned out to be a poor center class. I'm just generally against drafting poor players for the sake of ticking a box.

I don't mind disagreeing. It's that for years you have bemoaned lack of attention to the O line under Keim and his continuous stream of low round picks that didn't work out (ironically that you just mirrored above), and now we have the chance to remedy that and finally build from the trenches with Keim gone you want to shiny WR.

Have the shiny WR, just don't complain when the O line sucks and MHJ can't get the ball because Kyler is on his ass.

Again, drafting a tackle in the top 10--for a second consecutive year--is not the literal only way to fix the OL you're making it out to be. Heck, we have two first rounders, and we can trade, and also sign FA OL. In no way does me wanting that make me de-prioritize the line. Not even a decent call out effort on your part. Try harder.

 

[BritCard]

Do they though?

Literally all of them have three 1st or 2nd round picks on the line which is the definition of multiple.

Trey Smith should have been a 2nd round pick too if not for the heart thing. We drafted Dimukeje over him. So dumb.

 

[kerouac9]

Literally all of them have three 1st or 2nd round picks on the line which is the definition of multiple.

Trey Smith should have been a 2nd round pick too if not for the heart thing. We drafted Dimukeje over him. So dumb.

We have 3 1st or 2nd round picks on our line

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Do they though? Again, it's not just top picks we're talking about here: It's top picks on rookie contracts, right? I'd argue that the draft status of a former 1st rounder on his second or third deal is less important than that he's proven to be a high-level player.

Let's look at the starting lines for the consensus three top teams:

Philly:
Jordan Mailata, T (7th round, 2018)
Jason Kelce, C (6th round, 2011(!!!!!))
Landon Dickerson, IOL (2nd round, 2021)
Lane Johnson, LT (1st round, 2013(!!!!))
Cam Jurgens, IOL (2nd round, 2022)

KC:
Trey Smith, OG (6th round, 2021)
Joe Thuney, OG (3rd round, 2016 -- FA signing)
Donovan Smith, T (2nd Round, 2015 -- FA signing)
Jawaan Taylor, T (2nd round, 2019 -- FA signing)
Creed Humphrey, C (2nd round, 2021)

Baltimore:
John Simpson, OG (4th round, 2020 -- FA signing)
Kevin Zeitler, OG (1st round, 2012 -- FA signing)
Tyler Linderbaum, C (1st round, 2022)
Morgan Moses, T (4rd round, 2014 -- FA signing)
Ronnie Stanley, T (1st round, 2016)

The Cards have 2 first rounders, a high second rounder, FroGOAT, and a dumpster fire starting on the OL. I don't think you need to continue pouring resources into the group; you just need to put someone who can play at LG.

Wonderful work kerouac9, thank you.

 

[BritCard]

We have 3 1st or 2nd round picks on our line

We have two 1sts and a 2nd. The problem being one of those 1sts will be 31 next year and hasn't been good for a while. Has barely been good ever in fact. You said above you're more concerned about how good they are than draft position, which is true, but draft position often leads to how good they are. Especially for tackles.

WR is getting like running back. There are good ones every year all across the draft. Most of the top 10 was drafted round 3 or later.

Great tackles are much rarer. Look at last years class. None of them have been great in year 1. Even guys like Skoronski who was supposed to be plug and play. I think PJJ will be fine, he started off well and has hit a wall, or maybe the whole offense has reach fatigue from bad QB play.

For me, with a fresh coaching staff and GM it's time to build the foundations for the future and cement franchise LT for the next 10 years.

 

[Harry]

But not in the same ballpark in coverage. DeJean will be a safety at the next level.

He reminds me of Bryon Murphy. Their flat speed is about the same. More and more teams are using TEs are key receivers. The Cards look helpless when covering TEs. This may be a little early but I believe you take the guy you want rather then moving down and watching him get grabbed ahead of your pick. It’s fair to say he may end up as a safety or a slot corner but you have to have a player that can fill this void. Also neither Williams nor Clark is a ballhawk. That role must be filled as well. Thompson has been erratic in pass coverage. He’s very sound against the run and the Cards have struggled to control the edge. I think this youthful trio would give the Cards something to slow opposition passing. He’s additionally an outstanding kick returner. Finally I would take Newton before him if available. I might even move up a few slots to get him. DTs are so rare.

 

[slanidrac16]

Because defense has serious needs too.

On offense in round 1 I don't see any alternative than we have to choose between OL and WR as we also need a DT or Edge.

Fix one side. Dynamic Qb in nullified with a weak o-line and limited weapons.
This defense with all its needs has been handicapped by an offense that can’t score.
Assuming we:
Draft MHJ
The best ot available
Sign a f/a guard
Draft a speed running back
Retain Brown an Connor
That gives us all the ingredients needed to be a dynamic offense assuming Kyler is the man.

That still leaves us a plethora of draft picks to stack up the defense.

 

[kerouac9]

We have two 1sts and a 2nd. The problem being one of those 1sts will be 31 next year and hasn't been good for a while. Has barely been good ever in fact. You said above you're more concerned about how good they are than draft position, which is true, but draft position often leads to how good they are. Especially for tackles.

WR is getting like running back. There are good ones every year all across the draft. Most of the top 10 was drafted round 3 or later.

Great tackles are much rarer. Look at last years class. None of them have been great in year 1. Even guys like Skoronski who was supposed to be plug and play. I think PJJ will be fine, he started off well and has hit a wall, or maybe the whole offense has reach fatigue from bad QB play.

For me, with a fresh coaching staff and GM it's time to build the foundations for the future and cement franchise LT for the next 10 years.

From a draft resources perspective, I don't see much difference between our offensive lines and the top OLs in the league. So does investing draft picks in the room matter or not?

I believe that, if we hold on to Hollywood Brown, our wide receiver position does not require an elite prospect to be competitive. I'd like to see what Michael Wilson can bring to the table in terms of productivity and availability over the next eight games before making a final decision. We have a bunch of second-day picks that could sufficiently bolster that position to make it playoff-caliber.

I also think we have three- or four-fifths of the personnel needed to be a playoff-caliber offensive line. I think the biggest problem is that one of those fifths is maybe the worst in the league (LG) and the other fifths is probably a hole at the top of the room. Getting a league-average starter at LG will probably make us sufficient to earn a playoff spot. Adding an elite starter at any position would be enough to make this perhaps the strongest group on that side of the ball.

I'd value an elite LT prospect over an elite WR prospect. I don't know enough to say that the LT prospects in this draft are as good as Joe Thomas. I'd probably rather trade down, take the top defensive prospect, and add another pick in 2025 if I had to choose now.

 

[BritCard]

From a draft resources perspective, I don't see much difference between our offensive lines and the top OLs in the league. So does investing draft picks in the room matter or not?

I believe that, if we hold on to Hollywood Brown, our wide receiver position does not require an elite prospect to be competitive. I'd like to see what Michael Wilson can bring to the table in terms of productivity and availability over the next eight games before making a final decision. We have a bunch of second-day picks that could sufficiently bolster that position to make it playoff-caliber.

I also think we have three- or four-fifths of the personnel needed to be a playoff-caliber offensive line. I think the biggest problem is that one of those fifths is maybe the worst in the league (LG) and the other fifths is probably a hole at the top of the room. Getting a league-average starter at LG will probably make us sufficient to earn a playoff spot. Adding an elite starter at any position would be enough to make this perhaps the strongest group on that side of the ball.

I'd value an elite LT prospect over an elite WR prospect. I don't know enough to say that the LT prospects in this draft are as good as Joe Thomas. I'd probably rather trade down, take the top defensive prospect, and add another pick in 2025 if I had to choose now.

Of course it matters but draft resources when Keim in managing them are worth less than when someone competent is. Hump has never been more than average.

The only reason the draft resources spent on O line doesn't look so bad on paper is because we drafted PJJ last year. Hernandez is a failed Giant that we didn't draft. The only other high pick in the whole room is Hump from 2015.

In fact the only draft picks on the 53 are Hump, PJJ and when healthy, Gaines.

I agree it's a tough call and much may change yet. I think Mike Wilson can be very good, and much depends on what happens with Brown (I think he stays personally). And MHJ will no doubt be great. Like you I value tackles over WR and in a close call like this I lean tackle. I think Alt can be a Joe Thomas level tackle.

On saying that I understand the MHJ attraction. If nothing else he will add a level of league wide interest to the Cards that just isn't there now.

 

[BritCard]

Of course it matters but draft resources when Keim in managing them are worth less than when someone competent is. Hump has never been more than average.

The only reason the draft resources spent on O line doesn't look so bad on paper is because we drafted PJJ last year. Hernandez is a failed Giant that we didn't draft. The only other high pick in the whole room is Hump from 2015.

In fact the only draft picks on the 53 are Hump, PJJ and when healthy, Gaines.

I agree it's a tough call and much may change yet. I think Mike Wilson can be very good, and much depends on what happens with Brown (I think he stays personally). And MHJ will no doubt be great. Like you I value tackles over WR and in a close call like this I lean tackle. I think Alt can be a Joe Thomas level tackle.

On saying that I understand the MHJ attraction. If nothing else he will add a level of league wide interest to the Cards that just isn't there now.

I'm going to go one further on Wilson as that wasn't quite accurate.

I think Wilson can be a great WR. Sometimes you can just look at a guy and your eye tells you that he has everything to be great and Wilson does that for me. Combined with his work ethic I think he could be a gem for us.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm going to go one further on Wilson as that wasn't quite accurate.

I think Wilson can be a great WR. Sometimes you can just look at a guy and your eye tells you that he has everything to be great and Wilson does that for me. Combined with his work ethic I think he could be a gem for us.

"Great"? I dunno.

Wilson is eighth among rookie WRs in receptions, sixth in receiving yards. I obviously was very excited about him after the preseason, and I hope the best is yet to come. But I don't think you put all your eggs in this basket.

 

[BritCard]

"Great"? I dunno.

Wilson is eighth among rookie WRs in receptions, sixth in receiving yards. I obviously was very excited about him after the preseason, and I hope the best is yet to come. But I don't think you put all your eggs in this basket.

Can't judge him on his stats with Dobbs throwing to him.

Cards have 2nd lowest passing yards per game at a measly 162.7.