That’s because there is no Universal Truth when it comes to the draft. Everyone has the exact same tape and workout data at their disposal, yet come to vastly different conclusions. That’s why we at PFF try to look for skills or data points that we can stably project from college to the pros. When it comes to evaluating wide receivers, one of the biggest such skills is separating down the field. Being able to dictate coverages from opposing defenses before the ball is even snapped has value in and of itself. No one in this draft commands that more than D.K. Metcalf, and it’s a big reason why he’s the top receiver on PFF’s draft board.
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The obvious red flag with Metcalf coming out has been his lack of production. That will always be concerning, especially to us here at PFF, but each prospect is unique and the reason for that lack of production needs to be examined. With Metcalf, there were legitimate excuses for why his numbers were so low. The biggest was a neck injury that limited him to only 201 pass routes in 2018. On a per route basis, he was actually
more productive (Metcalf averaged 2.83 yards per route) than guys like N’Keal Harry (2.71), Preston Williams (2.64), Antoine Wesley (2.59) and Stanley Morgan Jr. (2.23) – all 1,000+ yard receivers this past season. Before he was lost for the season against Arkansas, Metcalf ranked eighth in the country with 304 deep receiving yards. Metcalf was legitimately producing, but he simply didn’t see the field enough to show it in his raw numbers.
