Can the Blazers or Sonics crack the top eight?
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford
Tuesday, February 24
Change can be a beautiful thing, especially if you're one of thousands of fans watching Blazers GM John Nash conduct a DEA-like raid on the scourge of the city.
In a matter of months the Jail Blazers have been dissolved. No Rasheed Wallace to scapegoat. No Bonzi Wells and his demonic flying spit bombs to dodge. No Jeff McInnis to deliver the daily dose of pouting.
Time is running out for coach Maurice Cheeks and the Blazers.
Maurice Cheeks is smiling once again. Giggling, in fact, when he hears his new star, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, is willing to come off the bench in an effort to protect the fragile ego of Zach Randolph.
Damon Stoudamire and Dale Davis are suddenly on their best behavior. Theo Ratliff is swatting shots in ways that haven't been seen in Portland in a decade. Darius Miles is flying through the rafters the way he once did in with the Clippers.
Everything is fine now in Portland ... almost. There is that 20-season string of playoff appearances at stake. In the midst of the massive clean-up project, has anyone bothered to look at the standings?
If you have, you need to focus pretty far off in the distance to see the Nuggets, Rockets and Grizzlies racing away with the Western Conference's final three playoff spots. All three teams are playing well right now. None are showing signs of slowing down.
The Blazers might finally have fixed what's wrong in the locker room, community and even on the floor -- but have the changes come too late to keep the playoff streak intact?
Blazers fans probably won't like the answer. The good news is, they have plenty of experience dealing with bad news.
Today, Insider breaks down the playoff hunt in the West. Barring some sort of major collapse or injury by a team, chances are things will be wrapped up here in the next few weeks.
1. Sacramento Kings
Projected Record: 60-22
Current Record: 40-14 (No. 1)
Vlade Divac is averaging more assists per game than most point guards in the league (an amazing 10.2 over his last five games). Brad Miller is right behind him. Peja Stojakvoic has been hearing M-V-P chants in the distance. Mike Bibby has a new swagger in his step this year. And did we mention in six games Chris Webber is coming back from season-long injury exile? The Kings are clicking right now, and while their window appears to be closing, this team looks poised to go all the way this year.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Record: 59-23
Current Record: 40-16 (No. 2)
When the smoke clears, Kevin Garnett, if he can keep it up, will be the league's MVP. Not only has he turned in yet another of the most complete performances the NBA has ever seen, he's been a leader this season, setting a tone for veterans like Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell that has brought the best out of both. Now that Wally Szczerbiak and Michael Olowokandi are finally back, Flip Saunders has 26 games to try to meld them into the mix. It may produce a few rough spots along the way, but the ultimate prize is June, and for the first time in his career Garnett seems to have a supporting cast that can get him out of the first round.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Record: 53-29
Current Record:35-19 (No. 4)
We we're premature in handing them the NBA championship before the season even started, and we're just as premature to write them off after things haven't gone as planned. The reality is that when the Lakers are healthy, there isn't a more formidable starting five in the NBA. But balance that with the other reality -- so much turmoil and so little time actually playing together -- and a big question remains: Will a true team emerge, or are the Lakers just a nice collection of great players each trying to get his own?
4. San Antonio Spurs
Projected Record: 52-30
Current Record: 37-19 (No. 3)
It seems like the Spurs are a step behind this year. They miss Stephen Jackson. They miss David Robinson. Rasho Nesterovic, Robert Horry and Hedo Turkoglu have been solid replacements, but the magic isn't there this year. The Spurs will be dangerous contenders as long as Tim Duncan is breathing, but their shot at a repeat doesn't look great right now.
5. Dallas Mavericks
Projected Record: 51-31
Current Record: 35-20 (No. 5)
Too much of a good thing? That seems to be what plagues the Mavs. We said at the start of the season that if they found a way to jell, they could end up with the best record in the league. So far they've found ways to co-exist ... but the cohesion still isn't there. There's something about this team that just isn't right, and if Don Nelson doesn't figure it out soon, he'll be the fall guy. I've got a hint for him. Tell Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison to give Dirk Nowitzki the ball. When he's on fire, no one can stop the Mavs. When he's standing in the corner watching Walker chuck up 3s, the whole team really goes to waste.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Record: 48-34
Current Record: 34-22 (No. 6)
Jerry West has outdone himself here. If the Grizzlies keep up this pace, shouldn't we just rename the executive of the year award after him? West quietly and subtly has turned the Grizzlies from the most hapless franchise in the league into a solid basketball team in a little more than a year. They play hard (at home and, more importantly, on the road), have a cool style and have numerous assets to pawn off this summer in search of a true superstar. No one wants to play this team in the first round of the playoffs. I can't think of a higher compliment to West than that.
7. Denver Nuggets
Projected Record: 46-36
Current Record: 32-26 (No. 8)
Speaking of great front-office work, Kiki Vandeweghe's Nuggets are right up there with West's Grizzlies. The Nuggets were the worst team in the league last year and are now fighting for a No. 6 seed in the West. Unbelievable. They've done it with great play from rookie Carmelo Anthony and solid contributions from role players like Andre Miller, Voshon Lenard, Marcus Camby and Nene Hilario. The future is bright in Denver, and for the first time in a long time, that includes a visit to the playoffs.
8. Houston Rockets
Projected Record: 46-36
Current Record: 32-23 (No. 7)
Jeff Van Gundy took the keys out of Steve Francis' hand and put them in Yao's. The results were shaky early on, but lately Van Gundy looks pretty wise. Yao is starting to explode. In February he's averaging 20.8 ppg and 8.1 rpg on 58 percent shooting from the field. Francis has really had to tone down his game to make it happen, but the results of late have been pretty impressive. I still think the Rockets are actually the weakest team of the lot, but with a big, seven-game lead over the Blazers, they should be able to fight Portland off for the final playoff spot. It would take a 19-8 run by the Blazers to get by the Rockets, if Houston wins 46 games.
Around the League
Will Mehmet want to stay? Pistons president Joe Dumars has already gone on record that he wants to re-sign Mehmet Okur and Rasheed Wallace this summer. To do it, Dumars is either going to have to clear more cap room or convince one of them to take Detroit's mid-level exception.
Mehmet Okur
Forward-Center
Detroit Pistons
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM
PPG
RPG
APG
FG%
FT%
55
9.9
6.5
1.0
.457
.786
If Okur agreed to a starting salary of around $5.5 million (or whatever the mid-level exception turns out to be), the Pistons could exercise their early Bird rights on Okur, giving him the flexibility to opt out next summer when he will have his full Bird rights and could sign for a much bigger number.
But what if he doesn't want to sign at all? Okur has had a great relationship with the Pistons, but if Rasheed is in the team's long-term plans, playing the same position and a similar style, is it possible Okur would want out?
"It's really too early to know Mehmet's options this summer," Marc Fleisher, Okur's agent, told Insider. "I think we'll be looking very carefully at the role he plays and the minutes he gets for the rest of the season. He's happy in general with his situation in Detroit, but I think he needs to understand what his role will be in the future before he re-signs."
Fleisher claims that a "number" of teams are interested in Okur at contracts that exceed the mid-level exception. Insider talked to two GMs who spoke, on condition of anonymity, about his prospects this summer.
"He'll be in a tough position," one GM said. "Everybody likes him, and he's a good fit on several teams who really need a mobile big man. But at what price? His numbers suggest that a salary right around the mid-level is probably too high. Now that everyone knows the Pistons can match, I think teams will shy away from making him a priority. You don't want to overpay, and even if you do, the Pistons probably match."
That may be an understatement. Dumars told Insider over the weekend the Pistons will match "any offer" for Okur.
However another GM still thinks other teams will make a run. "Several teams have so much cap room I think they'd be willing to risk it," another GM told Insider. "What you'd try to do is force the Pistons' hand early. If Rasheed has a big year there, there will be a lot of pressure on Dumars to re-sign him."
All of this for a young 7-footer averaging just 10 points and 6.6 rebounds per game? Absolutely.
"Okur is going to be a star in the league," one scout told Insider. "I really believe that. He's so tough and mobile, and he's a good rebounder. Teams need size, and this guy really has the whole package. It's just a matter of time before he breaks out."
Continued............
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford
Tuesday, February 24
Change can be a beautiful thing, especially if you're one of thousands of fans watching Blazers GM John Nash conduct a DEA-like raid on the scourge of the city.
In a matter of months the Jail Blazers have been dissolved. No Rasheed Wallace to scapegoat. No Bonzi Wells and his demonic flying spit bombs to dodge. No Jeff McInnis to deliver the daily dose of pouting.
Time is running out for coach Maurice Cheeks and the Blazers.
Maurice Cheeks is smiling once again. Giggling, in fact, when he hears his new star, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, is willing to come off the bench in an effort to protect the fragile ego of Zach Randolph.
Damon Stoudamire and Dale Davis are suddenly on their best behavior. Theo Ratliff is swatting shots in ways that haven't been seen in Portland in a decade. Darius Miles is flying through the rafters the way he once did in with the Clippers.
Everything is fine now in Portland ... almost. There is that 20-season string of playoff appearances at stake. In the midst of the massive clean-up project, has anyone bothered to look at the standings?
If you have, you need to focus pretty far off in the distance to see the Nuggets, Rockets and Grizzlies racing away with the Western Conference's final three playoff spots. All three teams are playing well right now. None are showing signs of slowing down.
The Blazers might finally have fixed what's wrong in the locker room, community and even on the floor -- but have the changes come too late to keep the playoff streak intact?
Blazers fans probably won't like the answer. The good news is, they have plenty of experience dealing with bad news.
Today, Insider breaks down the playoff hunt in the West. Barring some sort of major collapse or injury by a team, chances are things will be wrapped up here in the next few weeks.
1. Sacramento Kings
Projected Record: 60-22
Current Record: 40-14 (No. 1)
Vlade Divac is averaging more assists per game than most point guards in the league (an amazing 10.2 over his last five games). Brad Miller is right behind him. Peja Stojakvoic has been hearing M-V-P chants in the distance. Mike Bibby has a new swagger in his step this year. And did we mention in six games Chris Webber is coming back from season-long injury exile? The Kings are clicking right now, and while their window appears to be closing, this team looks poised to go all the way this year.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Record: 59-23
Current Record: 40-16 (No. 2)
When the smoke clears, Kevin Garnett, if he can keep it up, will be the league's MVP. Not only has he turned in yet another of the most complete performances the NBA has ever seen, he's been a leader this season, setting a tone for veterans like Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell that has brought the best out of both. Now that Wally Szczerbiak and Michael Olowokandi are finally back, Flip Saunders has 26 games to try to meld them into the mix. It may produce a few rough spots along the way, but the ultimate prize is June, and for the first time in his career Garnett seems to have a supporting cast that can get him out of the first round.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Record: 53-29
Current Record:35-19 (No. 4)
We we're premature in handing them the NBA championship before the season even started, and we're just as premature to write them off after things haven't gone as planned. The reality is that when the Lakers are healthy, there isn't a more formidable starting five in the NBA. But balance that with the other reality -- so much turmoil and so little time actually playing together -- and a big question remains: Will a true team emerge, or are the Lakers just a nice collection of great players each trying to get his own?
4. San Antonio Spurs
Projected Record: 52-30
Current Record: 37-19 (No. 3)
It seems like the Spurs are a step behind this year. They miss Stephen Jackson. They miss David Robinson. Rasho Nesterovic, Robert Horry and Hedo Turkoglu have been solid replacements, but the magic isn't there this year. The Spurs will be dangerous contenders as long as Tim Duncan is breathing, but their shot at a repeat doesn't look great right now.
5. Dallas Mavericks
Projected Record: 51-31
Current Record: 35-20 (No. 5)
Too much of a good thing? That seems to be what plagues the Mavs. We said at the start of the season that if they found a way to jell, they could end up with the best record in the league. So far they've found ways to co-exist ... but the cohesion still isn't there. There's something about this team that just isn't right, and if Don Nelson doesn't figure it out soon, he'll be the fall guy. I've got a hint for him. Tell Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison to give Dirk Nowitzki the ball. When he's on fire, no one can stop the Mavs. When he's standing in the corner watching Walker chuck up 3s, the whole team really goes to waste.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Record: 48-34
Current Record: 34-22 (No. 6)
Jerry West has outdone himself here. If the Grizzlies keep up this pace, shouldn't we just rename the executive of the year award after him? West quietly and subtly has turned the Grizzlies from the most hapless franchise in the league into a solid basketball team in a little more than a year. They play hard (at home and, more importantly, on the road), have a cool style and have numerous assets to pawn off this summer in search of a true superstar. No one wants to play this team in the first round of the playoffs. I can't think of a higher compliment to West than that.
7. Denver Nuggets
Projected Record: 46-36
Current Record: 32-26 (No. 8)
Speaking of great front-office work, Kiki Vandeweghe's Nuggets are right up there with West's Grizzlies. The Nuggets were the worst team in the league last year and are now fighting for a No. 6 seed in the West. Unbelievable. They've done it with great play from rookie Carmelo Anthony and solid contributions from role players like Andre Miller, Voshon Lenard, Marcus Camby and Nene Hilario. The future is bright in Denver, and for the first time in a long time, that includes a visit to the playoffs.
8. Houston Rockets
Projected Record: 46-36
Current Record: 32-23 (No. 7)
Jeff Van Gundy took the keys out of Steve Francis' hand and put them in Yao's. The results were shaky early on, but lately Van Gundy looks pretty wise. Yao is starting to explode. In February he's averaging 20.8 ppg and 8.1 rpg on 58 percent shooting from the field. Francis has really had to tone down his game to make it happen, but the results of late have been pretty impressive. I still think the Rockets are actually the weakest team of the lot, but with a big, seven-game lead over the Blazers, they should be able to fight Portland off for the final playoff spot. It would take a 19-8 run by the Blazers to get by the Rockets, if Houston wins 46 games.
Around the League
Will Mehmet want to stay? Pistons president Joe Dumars has already gone on record that he wants to re-sign Mehmet Okur and Rasheed Wallace this summer. To do it, Dumars is either going to have to clear more cap room or convince one of them to take Detroit's mid-level exception.
Mehmet Okur
Forward-Center
Detroit Pistons
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM
PPG
RPG
APG
FG%
FT%
55
9.9
6.5
1.0
.457
.786
If Okur agreed to a starting salary of around $5.5 million (or whatever the mid-level exception turns out to be), the Pistons could exercise their early Bird rights on Okur, giving him the flexibility to opt out next summer when he will have his full Bird rights and could sign for a much bigger number.
But what if he doesn't want to sign at all? Okur has had a great relationship with the Pistons, but if Rasheed is in the team's long-term plans, playing the same position and a similar style, is it possible Okur would want out?
"It's really too early to know Mehmet's options this summer," Marc Fleisher, Okur's agent, told Insider. "I think we'll be looking very carefully at the role he plays and the minutes he gets for the rest of the season. He's happy in general with his situation in Detroit, but I think he needs to understand what his role will be in the future before he re-signs."
Fleisher claims that a "number" of teams are interested in Okur at contracts that exceed the mid-level exception. Insider talked to two GMs who spoke, on condition of anonymity, about his prospects this summer.
"He'll be in a tough position," one GM said. "Everybody likes him, and he's a good fit on several teams who really need a mobile big man. But at what price? His numbers suggest that a salary right around the mid-level is probably too high. Now that everyone knows the Pistons can match, I think teams will shy away from making him a priority. You don't want to overpay, and even if you do, the Pistons probably match."
That may be an understatement. Dumars told Insider over the weekend the Pistons will match "any offer" for Okur.
However another GM still thinks other teams will make a run. "Several teams have so much cap room I think they'd be willing to risk it," another GM told Insider. "What you'd try to do is force the Pistons' hand early. If Rasheed has a big year there, there will be a lot of pressure on Dumars to re-sign him."
All of this for a young 7-footer averaging just 10 points and 6.6 rebounds per game? Absolutely.
"Okur is going to be a star in the league," one scout told Insider. "I really believe that. He's so tough and mobile, and he's a good rebounder. Teams need size, and this guy really has the whole package. It's just a matter of time before he breaks out."
Continued............
