Film Room: Good Carson/Bad Carson

[kerouac9]

Carson Palmer is a great fantasy football quarterback, and a pretty mediocre real-life football quarterback. That’s why you might find the regular press write-ups on Palmer a little unsatisfying when you ask yourself why the trade compensation from the Raiders was so small. The traditional stats on Palmer are very impressive, even during his short tenure with the Raiders. Film study on Palmer confirms what the advanced metrics say:

Carson Palmer probably isn’t as good as you want him to be.

When you look at Palmer’s stat line from the Oakland Raiders 20-23 loss at the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6 last year, you’ll probably think that Carson Palmer had a pretty fantastic day: 23 completions on 33 attempts for 353 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. What those stats will hide (besides Palmer’s 2 fumbles, one lost) is that Palmer was actively hidden by the Oakland Raiders, and that his mechanics are going to present real challenges to the Arizona Cardinals.

This Week 6 game was an eerie precursor to the Arizona Cardinals’ own misadventure in the Georgia Dome. Matt Ryan threw 3 INTs in the game and rushed for only 45 total yards.

The mechanics issue first: age and injury have sapped Carson Palmer of some of his formerly elite arm strength. He’s compensated for this with an awkward, prolonged delivery. He has begun setting up in the pocket with his feet more than shoulder-width apart. With his feet this wide, he’s not really capable of using his legs to drive the football. Instead, he torques his upper body and delivers the ball over his head with his shoulders at a steep angle. Arians and Tom Moore can try and correct this old dog in the offseason activities, but it’s going to be a challenge with a long-time veteran who doesn’t have a ton of incentive to correct this problem at this point.

The Raiders-Falcons tilt does give some great examples of what Palmer is still capable of. With 4:48 in the first quarter and the score tied 0-0, Oakland begins a series backed up on their 2 yard line following a Michael Huff interception.

Palmer gets a great pre-snap read on the play. The Raiders are in an offset-I out of a 21 formation with Palmer under center. Atlanta walks a strong safety into the box, with the free safety on Denarious Moore’s side of the field. Palmer sees that Moore is being given inside leverage from the opposing cornerback, and can expect the deep safety to have to cover the middle of the field:

 

[kerouac9]

Following the snap, Palmer knows that he has a big play available. He gets good protection from the offensive line, and he’s ready to throw at the top of his dropback. The Atlanta deep safety is still in a backpedal with his hips turned toward the opposite sideline—he has no chance of making a play on the football:

 

[kerouac9]

The result is a 49-yard reception on a throw to Moore’s inside shoulder. As you admire the great pocket that Oakland’s offensive line is providing here, look at Palmer’s wide stance and the angle of his shoulders:

 

[kerouac9]

Bad Carson shows up in the 4th quarter of the game, which is again tied at 13-13. With 2:55 remaining, Oakland has driven form their own 10 yard line down to the Atlanta 28. In a close road game, you cannot afford to give up what should be automatic points for strong-legged Sebastian Janikowski.

Instead, Palmer gets baited into an interception by savvy veteran Asante Samuel.

The offensive play-call isn’t giving Palmer a ton of help. Oakland lines up in an 11 formation with WRs close on both sides. The split receiver has motioned across the formation and is going to run a 10-yard out pattern. Atlanta is playing a soft zone with 8 men in coverage. Oakland probably would have been better off going with a run call. Maybe they assumed that Palmer was heating up:

 

[kerouac9]

Palmer makes a pretty bad read on the play. He forces the ball to Derek Hagan (who had been active on the day) when there’s a clearly open receiver on the left, who’s gotten open on inside-out coverage:

 

[kerouac9]

Palmer makes the throw under no pressure other than what’s between his ears. He’s unlikely to see pockets this clean as an Arizona Cardinal:

 

[kerouac9]

The result is a pick six and the beginning of a furious comeback chance for the Raiders. They’ll go down the field and score, but Atlanta has time to kick a game-winning field goal at the end of the quarter.

The long and short of it to me is that you want Carson Palmer as your #2 fantasy football quarterback, but having looked at the tape, the Cards will still have no better than the 3rd best starting quarterback in the NFC West, and a guy who has been pretty creative at finding ways to wrest defeat from the jaws of victory.

A natural Cardinal.

Welcome home, Carson.

 

[binkar]

Kurt Warner made a really interesting observation on XTRA 910 today. He mentioned that he was able to be successful in Arizona because he had a unique ability to anticipate things before they happened, and had smart receivers in Q and Fitz who would make the right adjustments every time. This is only possible when both QB and WR are making these adjustments. One without the other is worthless. Kurt said that in watching film of Carson he seemed to anticipate throws correctly, but frequently his young receivers wouldn't and a negative end result would ensue.

One of the reasons Carson is different than the rest of the QBs we've had of late is that he anticipates throws ahead of time, thus getting the ball out of his hand a lot quicker. For our past QBs it seemed like they always had to wait to see a guy open. The problem with that is that with the speed of the NFL, if you wait to see a guy open he will frequently no longer be open by the time the ball gets there.

I'm excited to have Carson on board.

 

[Shane]

seems kind of shirt sighted to base carson palmer as a whole from one game. but either way he will get his chance. 33 is hardly considered old for a QB. my judgement if him will be purely based on what he does while wearing cardinal red.

 

[kerouac9]

Kurt Warner made a really interesting observation on XTRA 910 today. He mentioned that he was able to be successful in Arizona because he had a unique ability to anticipate things before they happened, and had smart receivers in Q and Fitz who would make the right adjustments every time. This is only possible when both QB and WR are making these adjustments. One without the other is worthless. Kurt said that in watching film of Carson he seemed to anticipate throws correctly, but frequently his young receivers wouldn't and a negative end result would ensue.

One of the reasons Carson is different than the rest of the QBs we've had of late is that he anticipates throws ahead of time, thus getting the ball out of his hand a lot quicker. For our past QBs it seemed like they always had to wait to see a guy open. The problem with that is that with the speed of the NFL, if you wait to see a guy open he will frequently no longer be open by the time the ball gets there.

I'm excited to have Carson on board.

Well, Kurt Warner has liked a lot of guys that have turned out to be pretty terrible, and Anquan Boldin is no longer here. There were times that Carson delivered a great ball in that game, and it bounced off a receiver's hands. I think that Moore is actually going to be a pretty good player in this league.

Make no mistake about it: Carson Palmer is light years ahead of what we've had to endure the last three seasons as Arizona Cardinals quarterback. Light years ahead.

The issue for me is that the leap that we made has been from D'Anthony Batiste to Levi Brown, not from Pat Tillman to Adrian Wilson.

 

[kerouac9]

seems kind of shirt sighted to base carson palmer as a whole from one game. but either way he will get his chance. 33 is hardly considered old for a QB. my judgement if him will be purely based on what he does while wearing cardinal red.

Yes, and past performance isn't a guarantee of future results. What I'll say is that the Raiders were 2-4 in games decided by a TD or less when Palmer was starting last year, and that the story on Palmer has been that he'll play just good enough to get you beat.

I don't really sweat his age; I'm sweating whether you can correct the mechanics of a 10-year NFL veteran with more than 4100 regular-season attempts.

I didn't cherry-pick this game to make Palmer look bad. I picked it because on the stat sheet it looked amazing. 350+ yards and 10.7 YPA on 33 passing attempts looks pretty awesome. I wanted to get blown away.

Oakland's defense was pretty miserable last season, but their offense was no great shakes, either. If I have time later this week or next, I'll look at his tape against Pittsburgh (70% completions, 3 TDs in a win) and against Tampa (400 yards, 4 TDs, 3INTs in a loss).

But keep in mind that there's a reason that Palmer is 29th in Total QBR last year, although he was a respectable 12th the year before in a system a little more suited to his skills. And there's a reason that he was traded for so little.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

I am shocked. Just shocked.

After reading now I wish we wouldnt have given up a conditional 7th round pick for him and commited unused cap money to him for a full year!

 

[desertdawg]

He has his good days and he has his sucky days. With Arians loving the 2 tight ends and Palmer's tendancy to get it to them, that can work out. With a real ballanced running/passing game with multiple shots down the field it could work out. If Palmer doesn't get smooshed every 4 games or doesn't just plain Skelton all over himself it could work out. I wasn't on board right away but for the deal we got him at, it does make me optomistic about our new regime and our new QB. If we don't leave our defense on the field for two thirds of the game it might work out. For a friggin 6th and 7th rounder, I'm glad they are down to see if it works out. Moore must have liked Palmer's arm strength.

 

[b8rtm8nn]

I hope it is similar to Warner in his having a bad day be really bad (several INTs) versus always being mediocre.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I find this an improvement over Bad Skelton / Worse Skelton

 

[red desert]

Kurt Warner made a really interesting observation on XTRA 910 today. He mentioned that he was able to be successful in Arizona because he had a unique ability to anticipate things before they happened, and had smart receivers in Q and Fitz who would make the right adjustments every time. This is only possible when both QB and WR are making these adjustments. One without the other is worthless. Kurt said that in watching film of Carson he seemed to anticipate throws correctly, but frequently his young receivers wouldn't and a negative end result would ensue.

One of the reasons Carson is different than the rest of the QBs we've had of late is that he anticipates throws ahead of time, thus getting the ball out of his hand a lot quicker. For our past QBs it seemed like they always had to wait to see a guy open. The problem with that is that with the speed of the NFL, if you wait to see a guy open he will frequently no longer be open by the time the ball gets there.

I'm excited to have Carson on board.

That is one intelligent analysis by some one who knows what he's talking about.

 

[Mitch]

That is one intelligent analysis by some one who knows what he's talking about.

KW was a master at it---because he spent the whole week walking his WRs through the plays and getting it all in sync.

What we have now---is not just a QB in Palmer who will do the same, but two offensive gurus in Arians and Moore who will be doing it themselves right there with Palmer and the WRs.

 

[TRW]

I think Palmer is not "elite" (never was) and not "middle of the pack". I think he has been consistently above average. He tends to throw too many picks, but has a 189-130 TD-Pick total for his career.

I think he can get over 4,000 yards and 25-30 TDs next season if they stabilize the line and Mendenhall stays healthy. Yes, he may also throw 10-15 picks in there too, but I think he will keep the Cards in the game most every week.

If the defense doesn't regress too far, I think 8-8 or 9-7 is not unrealistic with CP at the healm.

This Kool-Aid tastes GREAT!!!!

 

[Duckjake]

KW was a master at it---because he spent the whole week walking his WRs through the plays and getting it all in sync.

What we have now---is not just a QB in Palmer who will do the same, but two offensive gurus in Arians and Moore who will be doing it themselves right there with Palmer and the WRs.

Don't forget that by 2008 Warner had been playing with Fitz and Boldin for 3 seasons. 2005,2006, and 2007 and had thrown almost 1000 passes as a Cardinal. I would imagine the 3 of them were definitely on the same page by the '08 season.

 

[Darkside]

Kurt Warner made a really interesting observation on XTRA 910 today. He mentioned that he was able to be successful in Arizona because he had a unique ability to anticipate things before they happened, and had smart receivers in Q and Fitz who would make the right adjustments every time. This is only possible when both QB and WR are making these adjustments. One without the other is worthless. Kurt said that in watching film of Carson he seemed to anticipate throws correctly, but frequently his young receivers wouldn't and a negative end result would ensue.

One of the reasons Carson is different than the rest of the QBs we've had of late is that he anticipates throws ahead of time, thus getting the ball out of his hand a lot quicker. For our past QBs it seemed like they always had to wait to see a guy open. The problem with that is that with the speed of the NFL, if you wait to see a guy open he will frequently no longer be open by the time the ball gets there.

I'm excited to have Carson on board.

Heard this also, from a couple different sources, and I agree with everything you said here. His receivers were atrocious last year: his leading receiver was a TE (so we know he'll find Housler). I'm really excited also and expect a monster year for Fitz. I'm not even saying we'll make the playoffs, but I know and think everyone would agree that Cards football will be more exciting this year with Palmer behind center.


Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk 2

 

[PDXChris]

Don't forget that by 2008 Warner had been playing with Fitz and Boldin for 3 seasons. 2005,2006, and 2007 and had thrown almost 1000 passes as a Cardinal. I would imagine the 3 of them were definitely on the same page by the '08 season.

Looking back at his numbers, he was 8-18 is his first three season here and 27-30 in his 5 season as a starter here. His number were never bad either. That actually sounds very similar to Carson.

 

[Redheart]

No O-line, no difference.

 

[Gee!]

Id love to see some break down of Palmers yards with the Raiders in the 3rd and 4th qtr when down big..

 

[TJ]

I am shocked. Just shocked.

After reading now I wish we wouldnt have given up a conditional 7th round pick for him and commited unused cap money to him for a full year!

Yep. We got totally hosed in this deal. Christ, it's like Graves subbed for the day to make the deal

 

[Capital Card]

Great analysis as usual from K-9.

I'm glad we got Palmer, but I'm not about to run out and buy his jersey. I don't see us making the playoffs this year, but have high hopes that, unlike last year, we'll:

1. have a chance to do more than go 3 and out on 80% of our drives.
2. field an offense talented enough to actually watch as a fan.
3. Not allow other teams to gang-rush the QB because they know he (kolb/skelton/etc) can't find an open receiver.

Palmer should be able to gives us two-three drafts to find and begin to develop his replacement.... what we should have doing with Warner, rather than throwing good money after bad with Leinart.

Go Cards!!!