Film Room: Good Carson/Bad Carson

[Zeno]

Id love to see some break down of Palmers yards with the Raiders in the 3rd and 4th qtr when down big..

His QB rating when losing by 1-8 points is 87
QB rating when margin is 8-16 is 84

His worst QB rating by quarter was the first where he managed only a 67...he had an 87 in the fourth quarter.

He excels in the 2 minute offense where his QB rating was a 99

He also only threw 1 redzone INT in 90 attempts to go with 13 TDs

 

[PDXChris]

He excels in the 2 minute offense where his QB rating was a 99

He also only threw 1 redzone INT in 90 attempts to go with 13 TDs

That looks a lot like the numbers of one of our former QBs.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Kurt Warner made a really interesting observation on XTRA 910 today. He mentioned that he was able to be successful in Arizona because he had a unique ability to anticipate things before they happened, and had smart receivers in Q and Fitz who would make the right adjustments every time. This is only possible when both QB and WR are making these adjustments. One without the other is worthless. Kurt said that in watching film of Carson he seemed to anticipate throws correctly, but frequently his young receivers wouldn't and a negative end result would ensue.

One of the reasons Carson is different than the rest of the QBs we've had of late is that he anticipates throws ahead of time, thus getting the ball out of his hand a lot quicker. For our past QBs it seemed like they always had to wait to see a guy open. The problem with that is that with the speed of the NFL, if you wait to see a guy open he will frequently no longer be open by the time the ball gets there.

I'm excited to have Carson on board.

And keep in mind even Warner had his days where he was a turnover machine, and I mean the 2008 and 2009 years as well.

It happens.

I think the breakdown is more then fair on what Palmer brings to the table.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I am shocked. Just shocked.

After reading now I wish we wouldnt have given up a conditional 7th round pick for him and commited unused cap money to him for a full year!

That is too bad.

Everyone on this thread thinks he is a good signing.

He is better then Drew Stanton that is for sure.

But fair enough, not everyone is going to be happy with the move.

 

[oaken1]

That is too bad.

Everyone on this thread thinks he is a good signing.

He is better then Drew Stanton that is for sure.

But fair enough, not everyone is going to be happy with the move.

dude....finish your coffee and read it again,lol

 

[TJ]

That is too bad.

Everyone on this thread thinks he is a good signing.

He is better then Drew Stanton that is for sure.

But fair enough, not everyone is going to be happy with the move.

He's being sarcastic. AZF is as excited as anyone on this board aout the move. He and I talked yesterday about how awesome of a move it was and how we seemingly fleeced the Raiders.

 

[Duckjake]

He's being sarcastic. AZF is as excited as anyone on this board aout the move. He and I talked yesterday about how awesome of a move it was and how we seemingly fleeced the Raiders.

It's just hard to believe that Palmer suddenly became available and we were able to get him. When have the Cardinals ever gotten a break like this?

It's usually the other way around. The guy we want to draft goes one pick before ours. The Free Agent we want signs right before he's scheduled to visit Arizona. We way overpay for Free Agents etc.

If we get one of the better Safeties in the draft we could actually have a really competitive team.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

dude....finish your coffee and read it again,lol

.... OK, done.

He seems to be shocked and doesn't like that we signed Palmer.

Why ? Do you think he was being sarcastic ? Why would that be ? What is there to be sarcastic about ?

If have read the whole thread. Everyone seems to be enjoying the breakdown of Palmers' play and excited for the prospect of having a QB that is light years beyond anything we have had here since Warner.

Thus, I took it as is.

Just wondering what AF's problems with Palmer were is all.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

He's being sarcastic. AZF is as excited as anyone on this board aout the move. He and I talked yesterday about how awesome of a move it was and how we seemingly fleeced the Raiders.

Oh, Ok.

I don't get it, and have no idea what there is to be sarcastic about but OK.

 

[oaken1]

.... OK, done.

He seems to be shocked and doesn't like that we signed Palmer.

Why ? Do you think he was being sarcastic ? Why would that be ? What is there to be sarcastic about ?

If have read the whole thread. Everyone seems to be enjoying the breakdown of Palmers' play and excited for the prospect of having a QB that is light years beyond anything we have had here since Warner.

Thus, I took it as is.

Just wondering what AF's problems with Palmer were is all.

my take on it was that since the thread was overwhelmingly positive,...he chose to throw in something negative about the acquisition as a joke and did so with sarcasm.......sans the sarcasm icon obviously.....as an imitation/mockery of the inevitable negativity that always seems to come from SOMEbody no matter what move this team makes.

 

[WildBB]

Palmer makes the throw under no pressure other than what’s between his ears. He’s unlikely to see pockets this clean as an Arizona Cardinal:

Thanks for the breakdowns. Interesting stuff.

He didn't have that many clean pockets over there either, and much poorer recievers. That alone should help him here.

Having Brown back and and the rookies with a year under their belt, add in Warmack or Cooper and wthey should make great strides with 4 new OL coaches. If not there are players available who'd like their opportunity again.
I'm cautiously optomistic.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

His QB rating when losing by 1-8 points is 87
QB rating when margin is 8-16 is 84

His worst QB rating by quarter was the first where he managed only a 67...he had an 87 in the fourth quarter.

He excels in the 2 minute offense where his QB rating was a 99

He also only threw 1 redzone INT in 90 attempts to go with 13 TDs

I think you mean passer rating, but yeah those seem like some solid numbers.

 

[desertdawg]

I'm gonna go make an espresso and then smoke me some heavy sarcasm.

 

[Cheesebeef]

that 67 QB rating is what scares me most. Like I said, I watched a lot of Raider games unfortunately the last two years with Palmer and he would look really bad at the beginning of games and amongst others, usually put that wretched team in a pretty big hole.

hopefully, with a much better coaching staff and talent around him, that won't be the case here, but my fear is Carson's fool's gold.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

my take on it was that since the thread was overwhelmingly positive,...he chose to throw in something negative about the acquisition as a joke and did so with sarcasm.......sans the sarcasm icon obviously.....as an imitation/mockery of the inevitable negativity that always seems to come from SOMEbody no matter what move this team makes.

Got it.

So without reading anything, a post was made directed at another poster.

You must be registered for see images attach

Stupid.

Got some people riding other people's legs around here, I tell you. Screwing up good discussions with 5th grade fights.

Gotta question the sanity and intelligence of people who keep subjecting themselves to things they hate.




------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well in regards to the topic, it seems like the majority is happy about the move.

I am lukewarm, but hopefull. Palmer is going to be good, not great, IMO.

But Carson Palmer, even being the QB, is not going to make this team any better then 7-9, and I will debate that more AFTER the draft.

 

[kerouac9]

Thanks for the breakdowns. Interesting stuff.

He didn't have that many clean pockets over there either, and much poorer recievers. That alone should help him here.

Having Brown back and and the rookies with a year under their belt, add in Warmack or Cooper and wthey should make great strides with 4 new OL coaches. If not there are players available who'd like their opportunity again.
I'm cautiously optomistic.

Palmer had cleaner pockets in the Atlanta game (at the Georgia Dome, keep in mind) than I saw for much of last year, but Atlanta doesn't exactly have a fearsome pass rush, either. FWIW, on a couple of sacks, John Abraham basically destroyed both the left and right tackles to get to Palmer, including a blind-side strip-sack that was absolutely textbook. John Abraham IMO has a very underrated career, both in New York and then Atlanta. Kind of a shame.

It's unfortunate that some fellow posters are so motivated by personal animus that they can't read what was actually written here. There's no question to me that Palmer is head and shoulders better than what we've had to endure the past three seasons.

I'm interested to look at more tape (from the Pittsburgh and Tampa games) and see a greater sample size of what he's doing. I like Moore and Heyward-Bey, although neither is in the same class as Fitz. I'm most concerned about what his throwing motion says about his remaining physical ability (I hope to put together a tape breakdown of this this afternoon, conference calls pending). That was the biggest red flag for me, because it's unlikely to change.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Kurt Warner made a really interesting observation on XTRA 910 today. He mentioned that he was able to be successful in Arizona because he had a unique ability to anticipate things before they happened, and had smart receivers in Q and Fitz who would make the right adjustments every time. This is only possible when both QB and WR are making these adjustments. One without the other is worthless. Kurt said that in watching film of Carson he seemed to anticipate throws correctly, but frequently his young receivers wouldn't and a negative end result would ensue.

One of the reasons Carson is different than the rest of the QBs we've had of late is that he anticipates throws ahead of time, thus getting the ball out of his hand a lot quicker. For our past QBs it seemed like they always had to wait to see a guy open. The problem with that is that with the speed of the NFL, if you wait to see a guy open he will frequently no longer be open by the time the ball gets there.

I'm excited to have Carson on board.

That kind of connection between QB and receivers is magical, but it is not perfect. Warner and the receivers in those days also had plenty of miscues. Warner was a great QB here, no doubt, but that was because he was willing to take some huge risks. Most of the time it worked. Sometimes it didn't.

You could go back and do a Good Kurt/Bad Kurt analysis and probably come up with similar stuff.

I am happy to have Palmer here. I wanted him when we got Kolb. It just seemed, at the time, that we could have gotten him much cheaper and he was more of a proven commodity.

 

[kerouac9]

That kind of connection between QB and receivers is magical, but it is not perfect. Warner and the receivers in those days also had plenty of miscues. Warner was a great QB here, no doubt, but that was because he was willing to take some huge risks. Most of the time it worked. Sometimes it didn't.

You could go back and do a Good Kurt/Bad Kurt analysis and probably come up with similar stuff.

I am happy to have Palmer here. I wanted him when we got Kolb. It just seemed, at the time, that we could have gotten him much cheaper and he was more of a proven commodity.

I'm not sure that's true. I promise I didn't cherry-pick a bad game from Carson last year. I picked one where I wanted to see why a close game fell short for his team, and it turned on a pick six with less than three minutes on the clock in field goal range.

When Kurt was good, he was amazing. There's a reason that Warner had the highest QB rating of all time when he left the Rams. He didn't have a lot of mediocre games. He had a ton of games where he was a wizard on the passing stats, some games when he put up great stats if you screen out fumbles, and some games when he just didn't know what he was seeing, and continually throwing the ball to opponents.

Palmer isn't on that level, and maybe never was. As I said, when he was at his peak, he played a lot like Matt Stafford did. He's not exactly a "front-runner," as much as he's a quarterback who's so comfortable playing from ahead, but seems to struggle some in "big moments" (thus his underwhelming QBR in comparison to his raw stats).

 

[TJ]

It's just hard to believe that Palmer suddenly became available and we were able to get him. When have the Cardinals ever gotten a break like this?

It's usually the other way around. The guy we want to draft goes one pick before ours. The Free Agent we want signs right before he's scheduled to visit Arizona. We way overpay for Free Agents etc.

If we get one of the better Safeties in the draft we could actually have a really competitive team.

I'm always reminded of Kyle Vanden Bosch when I think of breaks and luck. Promising young lineman, productive at times, but always injured. We let him go and then the following hear, he's a pro bowler.

Granted it is the safe bet to release someone with a profound history of injuries, but the Cardinals were very unlucky in this situation.

On the other hand, when Leinart failed, we had Kurt to fall on for two seasons.

 

[PDXChris]

I'm not sure that's true.

 

[TJ]

Why in the hell did you post that?!?!?! I conveniently forgot about that play!!!!!

 

[PDXChris]

Why in the hell did you post that?!?!?!

Sorry about that.

I conveniently forgot about that play!!!!!

And so did K9.

 

[kerouac9]

First, screw you for attaching that.

Second, Warner also threw 3 TDs in that game and more than 375 yards. There's some question as to whether Boldin ran the wrong route.

Obviously, this Week 6 game under discussion doesn't have those same stakes, but I don't remember Warner having a lot of 1 TD, 1 INT games. If you look at his game logs, it's weird that his QB ratings are either over 100 or under 80.

I don't really know what "Standard Deviation" means or what it's purpose is, but I wonder what the SD is on the average Career Kurt Warner start.

 

[desertdawg]

 

[Duckjake]

First, screw you for attaching that.

Second, Warner also threw 3 TDs in that game and more than 375 yards. There's some question as to whether Boldin ran the wrong route.

Obviously, this Week 6 game under discussion doesn't have those same stakes, but I don't remember Warner having a lot of 1 TD, 1 INT games. If you look at his game logs, it's weird that his QB ratings are either over 100 or under 80.

I don't really know what "Standard Deviation" means or what it's purpose is, but I wonder what the SD is on the average Career Kurt Warner start.

I just posted in another thread Palmer's stats per quarter from last year along with his 4th quarter down by 7 or less. No TDs 3 interceptions. Checked the previous 2 seasons and it was 0-1 in 2011 and 4-3 in 2010.

Aaron Rodgers 4th quarter within 7 the last two years? 11TDs NO interceptions!

Warner 4th within 7:

2009 31-48 2TD 0INT
2008 49-71 4TD 2INT

John Skelton 2011: 41-72 4TD 2INT.