Film Room: Good Carson/Bad Carson

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I just posted in another thread Palmer's stats per quarter from last year along with his 4th quarter down by 7 or less. No TDs 3 interceptions. Checked the previous 2 seasons and it was 0-1 in 2011 and 4-3 in 2010.

Aaron Rodgers 4th quarter within 7 the last two years? 11TDs NO interceptions!

Warner 4th within 7:

2009 31-48 2TD 0INT
2008 49-71 4TD 2INT

John Skelton 2011: 41-72 4TD 2INT.

Though he did have a 99.8 passer rating in the 2 minute offense.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

We gave up nothing for Palmer and if he justifies the critics negative opinions of him we're going 4-12 setting us up for one of the bounty of QB's ready to be drafted in the top 10 next year. And if BA/Moore/Fitz can get some more years out of him all the better. Great play by the Cards FO here in a rebuilding year.

 

[Totally_Red]

I just posted in another thread Palmer's stats per quarter from last year along with his 4th quarter down by 7 or less. No TDs 3 interceptions. Checked the previous 2 seasons and it was 0-1 in 2011 and 4-3 in 2010.

Aaron Rodgers 4th quarter within 7 the last two years? 11TDs NO interceptions!

Warner 4th within 7:

2009 31-48 2TD 0INT
2008 49-71 4TD 2INT

John Skelton 2011: 41-72 4TD 2INT.

Palmer throws his fair share of picks, but I wonder what percentage can be blamed on him versus receiver running the wrong route or cutting short a route, ball bouncing off receivers hands, ball tipped at line of scrimmage. Anywhere from 25 to 50% picks may not be the quarterback's fault.

 

[CardsFan88]

I'm not sure that's true. I promise I didn't cherry-pick a bad game from Carson last year. I picked one where I wanted to see why a close game fell short for his team, and it turned on a pick six with less than three minutes on the clock in field goal range.

But that is cherry picking. No matter what you were going to see a game where they lost. Meaning there was little shot of it not negatively impacting the viewpoint. True it could have been for other reasons, but losses generally reflect badly on players and especially ones at the important positions like QB. I agree it wasn't a purposeful pick of a bad game.

Overall I understand your points and can see the concerns, but if we're looking at close games Warner lost, we'd see some bonehead picks too.

Obviously you're keeping an open mind and want to review more tape, and will form an educated opinion.

I know we all feel we're in a better position at QB today then we were yesterday or at any time since Warner left. The key question is, to what degree.

 

[kerouac9]

So... I watched the tape of the Week 4 game against Pittsburgh, and here's what I kind of saw. There weren't any "wow" plays per se, so I'm not going to break much down.

- This Raiders offense in 2012 wasn't suited to Palmer's skill set very well. He does a good job of ball location in the short passes, which allows his speedy receivers to get YAC, but there's also a lot of roll-outs and movement plays, which Palmer clearly isn't very comfortable with.

- When Run DMC is healthy, he's such a weapon. He had a 63-yard TD run in the first quarter of this game, and it was awesome.

- I wonder if Palmer got hurt in the early part of the season in his shoulder. For the most part, his delivery looked tight and controlled. I'm interested in seeing the Week 9 tape against Tampa and see if the mechanics issues that I saw against Atlanta are still there.

- The field at the Oakland Collesium is embarrassing during baseball season. Palmer had an INT on his first attempt (first offensive play of the game), and it was because his target fell down between first and second base.

EDIT:

One other thing: Carson Palmer is a VETERAN. He's great at manipulating coverages with head and shoulder fakes to give guys a slightly better chance to come open.

 

[JeffGollin]

I don't know if it's buried in some earlier post, but Steve Keim said that he reviewed tape of every Palmer snap over something like a 3-year period and concluded that Carson hadn't lost any arm strength.

That puts many of us in the unenviable position of having to decide who has the better set of eye-balls, Steve or K-9 ( but I wouldn't underestimate K-9).

 

[Chopper0080]

Cossell did a break down of Palmer on the Cowherd show last winter and said he was a player whose stats didn't reflect how good he actually was. Stated that the offense wasn't really suited for Palmer and he was hurt by having inexperienced WRs. Take that for what it is worth.

Palmer is a top 20 QB. Maybe having Fitz and an offensive system that fits him better elevates him into the top 15 catagory, but it won't matter if we can't protect him. I have said it before, I would be really tempted to go heavy on the offensive line in this draft, and get a TE early. The tough part for me is where to squeeze in a S, OLB and CB with that. I wouldn't be shocked if we traded down in the case of Lane Johnson being gone by the time we pick.

 

[kerouac9]

I don't know if it's buried in some earlier post, but Steve Keim said that he reviewed tape of every Palmer snap over something like a 3-year period and concluded that Carson hadn't lost any arm strength.

That puts many of us in the unenviable position of having to decide who has the better set of eye-balls, Steve or K-9 ( but I wouldn't underestimate K-9).

Aw... That's nice. I think Keim is being a little disingenuous on the timeframe for the tape, considering that it's widely believed that Palmer's arm strength has been sapped for the last three seasons, since the leg injury against Pittsburgh in the playoffs and then the elbow/shoulder injury that cut short his 2008 season.

I just reviewed the Tampa tape.

- One thing that I haven't mentioned is that--and this might just be the Raiders offense as a whole--Palmer is a frustratingly slow starter. In all three of this games, he went three-and-out or worse on the first series (going of memory here, I could be kind of wrong), and in the Tampa game the Raiders didn't put much more than one drive together in the entire first half.

- Make no mistake: Carson Palmer isn't going to be confused with Colt McCoy or Chad Pennington. It's just instead of a cannon, he has an above-average arm. I didn't see him throw a lot of 15-yard outs (maybe the hardest pass in football), but those that he did throw took a little time to get there. Part of the problem is that his windup on throws (his hand seems to go from below his shoulder to over his ear) gives the defender time to recover and make a play on the ball.

- Palmer has GREAT ball location on short and intermediate passes. The offense was predicated on getting the ball quickly to these wideouts, and Palmer was able to execute that.

- Both Run DMC and Mike Goodson went down by the third quarter of this game. Palmer brought the Raiders from a 27-10 deficit into a one-score ball game, and then had a miscommunication with Rob Streater and threw a pass that effectively ended the game.

- Cosell is right that his receivers aren't doing him many favors. There were plenty of balls bouncing off guys' hands in this game.

- One route that Palmer had success with that I haven't seen in a Cardinal offense for a while: the eight-yard comeback route. I'd love to see that brought back into the playbook.

 

[b8rtm8nn]

- One route that Palmer had success with that I haven't seen in a Cardinal offense for a while: the eight-yard comeback route. I'd love to see that brought back into the playbook.

Is this an Andre Roberts type route (ie quick guy thing)?

 

[kerouac9]

Is this an Andre Roberts type route (ie quick guy thing)?

It's not a physical route, although it helps to sell the route with a WR that can get deep and put pressure on the opposing corner.

Basically, the receiver needs to sell the vertical or post route, and once the corner gets his hips snapped, the WR cuts back toward the LOS. You're right that you have to have a cornerback over the top, rather than trail technique, to make the route meaningful.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Is this an Andre Roberts type route (ie quick guy thing)?

its best for speed receivers because corners always like to try and cheat upfield on them.

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[Duckjake]

Just for fun: The number of times a QB has had a defense ranked in the top half of the NFL in points allowed.

Palmer: 1 in 8 years (Did not count 2008)
Brady : 8/11 (Did not count rookie or year Cassell was QB)
Rodgers: 3/5
PManning 7/15
EManning: 3/8
Brees: 3/7 (New Orleans only)

And of course Ben R: 9 of 9.

Easy to see why the Colts, Steelers and Patriots have dominated the AFC for years. Top QB and top defenses.

 

[Darkside]

I don't know if it's buried in some earlier post, but Steve Keim said that he reviewed tape of every Palmer snap over something like a 3-year period and concluded that Carson hadn't lost any arm strength.

That puts many of us in the unenviable position of having to decide who has the better set of eye-balls, Steve or K-9 ( but I wouldn't underestimate K-9).

I thought K9 was mostly concerned about his delivery rather than arm strength? There is a definite change in delivery after his shoulder injury IMO. However I don't see any evidence that it hampered him or created sacks or didnt allow him to get the ball where he wanted it to go.

The comparisons to Warner are laughable on many fronts but it goes both ways. Warner won a SB and set tons of records before even coming here. He also had games where he threw 4 or 5 picks but nobody acknowledges those. Any other QB and we'd go insane but with Warner you just knew he was off that day.

Which leads me to: you can study any QB other than maybe Brady and Rodgers (and Brees maybe) and find bad games. Sometimes a dude just doesn't have it for whatever reason, it happens. Palmer is one of those QBs so he's going to lose every time comparing him to Warner, Rodgers etc.

Having said that he's the best QB we've had since Warner. And someone look up a better QB than Palmer on this roster prior to Warner. How far back do you have to go? And thats your answer on the trade.



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