Finger pointing in Clipper land?

[arthurracoon]

Charles Barkley was insistent that they should have fouled as well, but Kenny Smith had it right. You don't foul when they're so little time on the clock in that situation unless they are inside the arc or in no position to attempt a shot. The mistake that was made was allowing Bell to get behind the three-point line. Ewing and the others should have been guarding the line forcing the shooters into the middle of the floor.

I concur.

 

[arthurracoon]

also isnt there a rule about fouling before the ball is inbounded(the team gets the shot plus the ball)?

I heard on the radio yesterday, that that would be called as a Technical.

 

[elindholm]

Probabilistically, it is a 50-50 chance - the ball goes in or does not go in. Like I said, that is the probability, the outcome may be much different.

That's not what probability means. I might die today or I might not, but it's not a 50-50 chance.

 

[F-Dog]

Probabilistically, it is a 50-50 chance - the ball goes in or does not go in. Like I said, that is the probability, the outcome may be much different.

Remember, though, there's also a chance the ball bounces around the rim and stays on the cylinder indefinitely, neither in nor out. So, you're really only talking about a 33% probability.

That's not what probability means. I might die today or I might not, but it's not a 50-50 chance.

Counting your chickens a little early today, aren't you?

 

[Nash]

Probabilistically, it is a 50-50 chance - the ball goes in or does not go in. Like I said, that is the probability, the outcome may be much different.

That's not what probability means. I might die today or I might not, but it's not a 50-50 chance.

more 80-20? what's wrong? you hear your train' a comin?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Quote:
Originally Posted by myrondizzo
also isnt there a rule about fouling before the ball is inbounded(the team gets the shot plus the ball)?


I heard on the radio yesterday, that that would be called as a Technical.

That is correct. They changed the year a few years ago, because of the Hack-A-Shaq that was going on. They would foul Shaq, even if he did not have the ball, so that they could put him on the line.

 

[Gaddabout]

I can't tell if Cassell thinks he's the coach of the team, or if he just enjoys playing camp counselor for the Clippers extended summer camp.

 

[az1965]

Probabilistically, it is a 50-50 chance - the ball goes in or does not go in. Like I said, that is the probability, the outcome may be much different.

That's not what probability means. I might die today or I might not, but it's not a 50-50 chance.

Problem: shoot basketball with two options: ball goes in or ball does not go in. What happens after the ball does not go in can be further assigned probability based on the possible outcomes. What is the probability of each? What other options do we have? I'm not sure how else to calculate the probability?

Ball goes in = 1/2
Ball does not go in = 1/2

That's what I've understood as probability... simple problem.

And, yes the probability of dying is 50-50, if you only consider two possible outcome of the problem - live, die.

Again, probability does not mean that the outcome always is 50-50.

Here's some samples... http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html

 

[Mainstreet]

I got a chuckle out of the comment attributed to Sam Cassel, although I have immense respect for him as a player. He is much to the Clippers as what Steve Nash is to the Suns.


"We had a young guy in the game. It's not his fault that Raja made his shot, but we've got to know better in that situation.... We've got a foul to give, we've got to put Raja Bell in the fifth row with the popcorn man, but we didn't do it."



If interpreted literally, this type of play could have the potential of a five point play. First, Raja was going to shoot the 3-point shot irregardless in this situation so it could have been a five point play if he made the shot and received a foul while being in the act of shooting (while being sent to the fifth row), plus a technical foul for a flagrant foul. The referees would have to call it on a foul this hard... hopefully.

And second, a more likely scenario, could have been a possible four point play: three free throws on a 3-point shot attempt and a flagrant foul... sending Raja to the fifth row with the popcorn man.

The scenario of fouling Bell before the ball was inbounded has already been covered.

I know what Sam is trying to say... foul Bell before he shoots. However, if this comment is actually what Sam meant, it could have been worse for the Clippers.

Cassel sure enjoys talking. I guess I had to throw-in my 2 cents as well.

Also, as has already been pointed out, the best defense is to beat Bell to the spot outside the three point line. This is easier said than done as Bell knew where he was going to go.

 

[sunsfn]

Cassell talks too much.
Everybody seems to like him according to what they say, and he is a veteran leader on this young team. But there is a reason he has been on so many different teams even though he is a good player. The team may get sick of him after a couple years of him telling everybody what they should do or should have done on almost every occasion during the game.
I have noticed that Cassell is not the defensive player I once thought he was.

He comes up with some good ones though, like asking D'Antoni what he thought of the foul called on him. He probably decided that he was starting to get to the refs so he went to someone else to complain.

 

[Mainstreet]

Cassell talks too much...

He comes up with some good ones though, like asking D'Antoni what he thought of the foul called on him. He probably decided that he was starting to get to the refs so he went to someone else to complain.

Agreed. However, I could almost like him if it weren't for his play with Houston years ago against Phoenix in the playoffs.

I actually felt sorry for him for a split second on the call the referees made against him when he did not cross half court in time near the end of the game (or one of the OT's... I forget).

He seemed like a child that had his cookies taken away by a bully. IMO, this was the fault of the coaching staff as he should have been reminded about the time remaining to cross half court. There is no doubt about his devotion to winning.

 

[arthurracoon]

IMO, this was the fault of the coaching staff as he should have been reminded about the time remaining to cross half court. There is no doubt about his devotion to winning.

 

[elindholm]

Again, probability does not mean that the outcome always is 50-50.

Here's some samples... http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/v...obability.html

Okay, since you offered this link, I am going to work on the assumption that you are actually interested in learning a bit about probability. If not, you may disregard the rest of this post.

In the examples through the link (or at least the first few, which are all I looked at), the various outcomes are all equally likely. This is critical. For instance, with the four-colored spinner, if the four areas are each 1/4 of the disc and we make the usual assumptions about the game being fair, there is no reason for the spinner to "prefer" any one resting place over any other. So yes, the probability of any given color is 1/4.

But imagine that you changed that disc, so that the yellow area was the same size it presently is, but the other three areas -- red, green, and blue -- were all black instead. Now 1/4 of the disc would be yellow, and 3/4 would be black. The spinner would have a 1/4 probability of landing on yellow, the same as it did before. It would have a 3/4 probability of landing on black. Even though we are now down to two options, yellow and black, they aren't equally likely, so the probability isn't 1/2-1/2 (or, in jargon, 50-50, meaning percentages).

The six-sided die presents another case. All six numbers are equally likely, so the probability of rolling any particular one is 1/6. But let's say someone wanted to make a bet about rolling a multiple of 3 (3 or 6). There are two outcomes: You roll a multiple of 3, or you don't. But it's more likely that you won't. So that isn't a 50-50 proposition, even though there are only two outcomes. (The probability of rolling a multiple of 3 is 2/6, or 1/3.)

You are correct that, even when the probability is 50-50, the outcome won't always be 50-50. Here is an example. If you flip a fair coin twice, the most likely outcome is that you'll get one head and one tail. But you might get two heads, or two tails. Even though the probability of heads on any flip is 1/2, you might have 100% heads over two flips (or, for that matter, over three or more flips). If you flip the coin 100 times, the most likely outcome is 50 heads and 50 tails. But in fact, you're quite unlikely to get a perfect 50-50 split -- most likely it will be 53-47, or 48-52, or something like that. This is true even if the coin is perfectly fair.

Shooting percentages are like probabilities. There are two outcomes for a free-throw attempt: a make, or a miss. But the probability is not 50-50, because those outcomes are not equally likely. If Nash is a 90% free-throw shooter, then the probability of his making any one free throw is 90% -- he's much more likely to make it than miss it. (We could argue about how past performance is not necessarily a predictor of future results, but let's not.) That doesn't mean he will make 9 out of his next 10, but it's the most likely outcome.

In a situation where there are many unknowns -- such as a shooter attempting a last-second three with a hand in his face -- there isn't really a way to assign probabilities to the outcomes. Hypothetically, you could set up the identical scenario a large number of times, see how many times the shot is made, and get a pretty good idea. Since that's impractical, all we can do is guess. But that's completely different from shrugging off the problem and calling it 50-50, because the outcomes aren't equally likely. My guess is that, under identical circumstances, Bell would make that shot much less than half the time.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

Probabilistically, it is a 50-50 chance - the ball goes in or does not go in. Like I said, that is the probability, the outcome may be much different.

That's not what probability means. I might die today or I might not, but it's not a 50-50 chance.

hmm logic tells me that probability is (event/number of outcomes), so shooting the ball/the outcome of the shot (either make or miss) 1/2 or 50/50. Obviously that doesn't factor random events such as human error, environmental conditions or someone else sticking a hand in your face into the equation which will effect the outcome .

discliamer
there is a 100% probability i know nothing about math nor statistics.

 

[az1965]

The six-sided die presents another case. All six numbers are equally likely, so the probability of rolling any particular one is 1/6. But let's say someone wanted to make a bet about rolling a multiple of 3 (3 or 6). There are two outcomes: You roll a multiple of 3, or you don't. But it's more likely that you won't. So that isn't a 50-50 proposition, even though there are only two outcomes. (The probability of rolling a multiple of 3 is 2/6, or 1/3.)

Agree with some but don't think this example is similar to basketball example. Here there are actually 6 choices, but in basketball you really have only 2 choices.

 

[elindholm]

Here there are actually 6 choices, but in basketball you really have only 2 choices.

That just depends on how you count. You could say in basketball there are many choices: swish, goes in off the rim, goes in off glass, misses short, misses long, etc.

The number of choices is irrelevant. What matters is the relative likelihood of each one.

Please understand, this is not a matter of opinion.

 

[Errntknght]

50-50 is the probability, does not mean outcome is always 50-50.

The outcome of a shot is never 50-50... unless you're in the quantum realm and the outcome is unobserved.

 

[Errntknght]

If you flip the coin 100 times, the most likely outcome is 50 heads and 50 tails. But in fact, you're quite unlikely to get a perfect 50-50 split -- most likely it will be 53-47, or 48-52, or something like that. This is true even if the coin is perfectly fair.

Using a 'fair' coin, 50-50 split occurs with probability about .0796. The splits 49-51 and 51-49 each occur with probability about .0780 so if you lump those two together the probability is double that. The splits all decline monotonically in probability as you move further from 50-50 so the lumped case peaks at 49-51 + 51-49. The probability is slightly over 1/2 that the outcome will be a split as balanced or more balanced than 53-47 (or 47-53).

 

[elindholm]

Right, I was considering 51-49 and 49-51 to be different results.

Incidentally, in the Nash free-throw example, the single most likely specific sequence over ten trials is ten makes. But the various one-miss sequences sum to a greater overall likelihood.

 

[nowagimp]

hmm logic tells me that probability is (event/number of outcomes), so shooting the ball/the outcome of the shot (either make or miss) 1/2 or 50/50. Obviously that doesn't factor random events such as human error, environmental conditions or someone else sticking a hand in your face into the equation which will effect the outcome .

discliamer
there is a 100% probability i know nothing about math nor statistics.

Just forget about the statistics, you havent even stratched the surface. The fact that there are two outcomes in NO way means that they are equally likely. This is not a coin flip, where the two outcomes are equally likely. The probablility that he makes the shot, depends on WHO the shooter is, the distance, the defense, shot mechanics for that particular shot(is it rushed), and too many other variables to consider. I agree with eindholm, Bell makes that shot much less than 50% of the time.

 

[az1965]

Here there are actually 6 choices, but in basketball you really have only 2 choices.

That just depends on how you count. You could say in basketball there are many choices: swish, goes in off the rim, goes in off glass, misses short, misses long, etc.

The number of choices is irrelevant. What matters is the relative likelihood of each one.

Please understand, this is not a matter of opinion.

I'm trying but unfortunately, I don't see the correlation in the two examples.

The examples in the bold are not of outcome but the ways to achieve the same outcom -- outcome possibilities are still two in / out. Relating to the dice example, you can shake you hand and throw, you can twist your hand and throw, you can hit the wall while throwing dice, etc. but the outcome is still one of 6 possibilities.

 

[nowagimp]

I'm trying but unfortunately, I don't see the correlation in the two examples.

The examples in the bold are not of outcome but the ways to achieve the same outcom -- outcome possibilities are still two in / out. Relating to the dice example, you can shake you hand and throw, you can twist your hand and throw, you can hit the wall while throwing dice, etc. but the outcome is still one of 6 possibilities.

If you REALLY want to know about probability, you need to read about distributional statistics and in particular Bayesian statistics. This is much too complex to discuss here. Get a book AND tutor, its college level statistics for scientists and engineers. It goes something(generalization) like this:

the probability of A occurring, Pa, might be the probability of Bell making an open 3 pointer with alot of time(50%).

But now the probability of Bell making a defended 3 pointer would be Pa/b, the probability of Bell making the three when it is defended. Now there are other variables that influence the probability of the shot going in as well like a rushed shot.
P= Pa/b*Pa/c*Pa/d ... etc, its very complicated and requires the knowledge of Bayesian prior probabilities, Pa, Pa/b etc. They can be computed with enough data(makes and misses of MANY 3 point shots under different conditions(defense, open , quick shot etc) by Bell)

Its even more complex because shooters get hot and cold(their probabilities change) and different defenders have different effects on the shot make probability.

One way you can disprove your "# of possible events model" is to realize that the probability of making a coin flip does not depend on the person who "flips" it. However, the probability of Bell making a 3 is not the same as the probability of you making a 3. Your 50/50 # of events model suggests that shaq and Bell are equally likely to make a 3, but you know their 3 point shooting percentages are not the same.

If you want to better understand statistics beyond the high school level, go back to school. I am not being rude, its just that you are not even close to understanding this with a limited educational background. This is not material suitable for cliffs notes, a teacher and a book or two are needed.

 

[arthurracoon]

 

[Gaddabout]

What's the possibility we could still talk basketball in this thread?

 

[JCSunsfan]

If he had fouled Raja, Raja would have been shooting 3 free throws. He was much better off to d-up close, keep his hands straight up and see where things go.

I would venture to say that there is a higher probability of Raja making 3 free throws in a row, than of him hitting that shot.

(hint: nerd bait)