First-round Projection and Cardinals Mock Draft

[dreamcastrocks]

I'm a big proponent of BPA myself, but I do think the QB position is unique--maybe accounting for that 1 percent in this case?.

And, your statement above is a lot different than the one previous. One states without much wiggle room what you believe the Cards will do, this one states your own philosophy.

Yes and no. The QB is one of the where I would waver from this strategy. If a franchise talent QB is the best player available, and you already had a franchise QB on the roster, then you can pass. Other than that, you draft him. Especially at our spot, because he is much cheaper to draft now than early in the round or by signing a franchise QB via free agency.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Nice work.

FYI: Mike Mayoch describes Thomas as the most instinctive Safety in the draft, and rates him over Mayes.

 

[kerouac9]

Nice work.

FYI: Mike Mayoch describes Thomas as the most instinctive Safety in the draft, and rates him over Mayes.

I know that most do think that about Thomas. That was the one place where I went away from my board. I don't think that Parcells places a lot of stock in things like "instincts." If you look at how Parcells drafts, he looks for big guys who can move. I think that's why he had Dansby rated so highly.

I actually don't think that Mays is going to be much of a player at the next level, but I think that the Dolphins will take a stab at him.

 

[kerouac9]

I might trade one of your LB's for the CB/FS prospect from UIP (Awasoma sp). That way we would not be one injury away from "money" mike adams or the dude of the street we brought in at safety when Ware went down.

With Rhodes, Ware, and Johnson in his second year, I hope that we're not as thin at S as we were to end last season.

At cornerback, I do have us drafting Brandon Ghee with our 2nd round pick. I think he's going to be a very solid little player.

 

[LVCARDFREAK]

Stay away from Ghee. Never played to potential at WF and outside a solid combine hasnt done much. Knock at WF was too much of a "me" kid who went for the flashy play instead of the correct play.

 

[MadCardDisease]

In the past, I'd agree with you, but those types of players--good NTs--AREN'T found later in the draft. Fat guys are, but look at the NTs who were franchised, and they're largely first-round picks.

Franklin was a 5th rounder. So there are gems to be found in the later rounds.

I agree that most of the great DTs are found in the first round. I just don't think that Dan Williams is that type of DT who is worthy of a 1st rounder.

 

[kerouac9]

Franklin was a 5th rounder. So there are gems to be found in the later rounds.

I agree that most of the great DTs are found in the first round. I just don't think that Dan Williams is that type of DT who is worthy of a 1st rounder.

Yes, Franklin is a fifth-rounder. On his second team. But then there's Wilfork, Hampton, Pickett, Stroud, Haynesworth, Ferguson, etc. You can develop your own NT (which the Cards haven't been able to do so far) or you can find one in free agency (of whcih there aren't any besides maybe J. Kennedy). But the Cards cannot go into the season without another DT.

Why do you not believe that Williams is an NT prospect? Is it simply because he's not a pass rush threat? Do you think that Bill Parcells, Bill Belichek, and the Steelers were making mistakes when they drafted their NTs in the first round?

 

[Pariah]

When I think of a 3-4 NT, I don't think of a pass rusher.

JMHO

 

[MadCardDisease]

Why do you not believe that Williams is an NT prospect? Is it simply because he's not a pass rush threat? Do you think that Bill Parcells, Bill Belichek, and the Steelers were making mistakes when they drafted their NTs in the first round?

Nope. He clearly could play at NT. I just think he is a reach for a first rounder. I think better value could be found at the position.

I think he is just another Gabe Watson. Good but not worth a 1st round pick.

 

[Catfish]

K-9, I really like your 4th and 6th round picks for us. Good thoughts here, and good selections at those spots in my opinion.

Just an afterthought-----doing a first round mock is like kind of like being a one legged man in an ass kicking contest. There is so much going on that it is hard to see where it will lead you, and its easy to get overwhelmed. Your thoughts on need for the first 10 slots are pretty darn solid. Overall good job there.

 

[azsportsfan01]

Two things. First, wo way would I want th Cards to draft Jimmy Clausen. I think he will go Ryan Leaf on some team. Also I don't think he is all that great of a QB.

Number two, Russell Okung is going to be drafted number two by the Lions. I think that is an even bigger slam dunk than Bruce Campbell to the Raiders. The Lions just traded for Corey Williams so to spend that much money to two defensive tackles will just not happen.

 

[kerouac9]

Two things. First, wo way would I want th Cards to draft Jimmy Clausen. I think he will go Ryan Leaf on some team. Also I don't think he is all that great of a QB.

Number two, Russell Okung is going to be drafted number two by the Lions. I think that is an even bigger slam dunk than Bruce Campbell to the Raiders. The Lions just traded for Corey Williams so to spend that much money to two defensive tackles will just not happen.

You may be right on Okung, but I don't think they'd want to pass up either of the DTs to take him. Williams' contract isn't really unmanageable. Two years ago he was signed for 6 years, $38 million. That's not bad money for a starting DT.

The Lions might have had the worst tackle tandem in the NFL last year. I know that Bradford was a rookie, but Backus and Cherlius gave up 9+ sacks apiece.

 

[kerouac9]

Nope. He clearly could play at NT. I just think he is a reach for a first rounder. I think better value could be found at the position.

I think he is just another Gabe Watson. Good but not worth a 1st round pick.

So is every NT, by your value, a reach as a first rounder, or is it just Williams? What is your theory for why three teams franchised their NTs and two of them just re-signed those guys to extensions in excess of the franchise number if they can just be found in the 4th round?

 

[DoTheDew]

Last four #1 picks before Stafford:

OT Jake Long, QB Jamarcus Russell, DE Mario Williams, QB Alex Smith.

I don't think that teams are stupid. I think that the Rams know that they can get Colt McCoy in the second or move back up and get Clausen. But they have a defensive head coach and he's going to build on his terrible unit. I think that Spagnulo can convince ownership that McCoy would make Carricker and Long better, and also Laurinitis and the secondary.

I don't believe that any of these QBs has the potential of V. Young, M. Leinart, or J. Cutler from a few years ago. Mike Shanahan knows that you don't want to try and train a spread QB into a traditional offense.

Of those four picks you had the Dolphins run by Parcells, one of the few guys who knows better (although they passed on Matt Ryan to take Long so it was win either way).

A bust QB by a team poorly run.

A team that had invested money in a QBOF already in Matt Schaub.

And another "bust" QB.

Basically every time a team needs a QB and one is there they take him. The main thing though is the Rams GM was interviewed during the combine and basically said it is down to the two DTs and QBs but it will be hard to pass on a QB. What makes matters worse is with the bust rate for DTs being higher than any other position, giving $40 mill in guarantees to a #1 pick or whatever the amount will be is just hard to swallow.

All that said the Rams SHOULD draft McCoy or Suh but I won't believe that they do it until it happens.

 

[Duckjake]

Of those four picks you had the Dolphins run by Parcells, one of the few guys who knows better (although they passed on Matt Ryan to take Long so it was win either way).

A bust QB by a team poorly run.

A team that had invested money in a QBOF already in Matt Schaub.

And another "bust" QB.

Basically every time a team needs a QB and one is there they take him. The main thing though is the Rams GM was interviewed during the combine and basically said it is down to the two DTs and QBs but it will be hard to pass on a QB. What makes matters worse is with the bust rate for DTs being higher than any other position, giving $40 mill in guarantees to a #1 pick or whatever the amount will be is just hard to swallow.

All that said the Rams SHOULD draft McCoy or Suh but I won't believe that they do it until it happens.

FYI the Texans didn't get Schaub from Atlanta until the year after they drafted Mario Williams.

 

[Unsterblich856]

Garrard's on a $60 million contract extension through 2014. Jack Del Rio is playing on the last year of his contract. Their GM, Gene Smith, is one of the guys who negotiated Garrard's extension.

People want to force the Jags to draft a QB, but Garrard is actually a pretty solid player that you can win with. It wasn't his fault he had no one to through the ball to. Garrard managed to make Ernest Wilford look like an NFL player.

Looking at the factors, I think they won't actively look for a new QB but if someone like Clausen dropped to them, they'll jump on it.

Del Rio, when asked if Garrard was a Super Bowl caliber QB, said elite QBs win SBs and Garrard is a great QB. Translation: he doesn't believe he can win a SB with him starting. Also, if I got it right, Garrard will receive all of his guaranteed money by the end of next season. They could draft a QB, have him sit, and cut Garrard to have the rook start in 2011 with no penalties. Also, Garrard's contract is very inflated. I like him and so do the Jags, but everybody knows he is overpaid.

 

[WildBB]

1 St. Louis Rams - Gerald McCoy, DT, Okalahoma. Sam Bradford is not a franchise quarterback.

There has to be concerns about McCoys lack of strength on the inside despite all his attributes. How can you make a call on Bradford allready? I say the Rams trade out or call everyones bluff and take the consensus #1, Suh.

Arizona Cardinals Draft:
1 (26) Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

It'd be nice. A little wishful thinking maybe. I'd give it 5:1 odds right now.

2 (58) Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest - The Cards looked for an ILB here, but there was no one on the board. You can never have too many good cornerbacks, especially when you're one injury away from starting "Money" Michael Adams.
3A (88) Sean Lee, LB, Penn State - Cards are taking a huge risk on a player with first-round talent but a fifth-round body.
3B (89) Thaddeus Gibson, LB, Ohio State - Cards have to load up on a youth and talent movement if they can't get high-round talent.
4 (120) George Selvie, DE, South Florida - Will play outside linebacker for the Cards.
6 (185) Jim Dray, TE, Stanford - He blocks people, and will become a threat in the passing game over time. Possesses immense untapped potential.
7 (217) Chris Marinelli, OT, Stanford - The Cardinals look to the Cardinal back-to-back to end the draft. Marinelli was a four-year starter for Stanford, but shoulder injuries held him back as a senior.

Let me know what you think. First-round projections take forever, but I can take the criticism.

Good value draft. You might need to settle for Cody. Or what about Kyle Wilson first and trade up for Cody in the 2nd? I'd really prefer Kareem Jackson better than Ghee..too.

 

[Chopper0080]

Mock drafts are so subjective that I have a hard time justifying any critiquing, but here we go as far as the Cards picks...

1-Dan Williams: I don't mind this pick, but it has to be backed up with impact players later in the draft.

2-Brandon Ghee: It sounds stupid to say that I like Ghee in the 3rd round, but not the 2nd, but that is how I feel. I don't believe in a draft this deep that you can draft a guy in the top 60 that underperformed as much as Ghee did in college. Too risky in a draft this deep.

3a-Sean Lee: Probably the best option left at ILB, but that isn't really a good thing. If we don't have an ILB by this pick, we probably should look for players at a different position. I just don't care for a worn down ILB in a defense that is hard on that particular position.

3b-Thaddeus Gibson: Another risk player in my opinion, though I like his potential. If it weren't for Ghee and Sean Lee, I would be a lot more comfortable taking him here. My only other concern is his explosiveness in rushing the passer. We don't have a spot for another mediocre rusher at linebacker.

4-George Selvie: Risky pick is ok here, but how many roster spots do we have for OLB/DE's. With Porter, Baggs, Cody Brown, & Will Davis, this means either Selvie or Gibson has to make it to the PS, which they won't. A waste pick due to limited roster spots.

6 & 7 are toss ups that I don't have issues with.

Too many risk players/college underachievers in my opinion for a very deep defensive draft. We just can't afford to make a total whiff in this draft, and this draft has that potential. I also don't think that we have that many OLB spots open, and neither of these guys projects inside. But, I am not a pro scout or a pro GM, so what the hell do I know?

 

[Arizona's Finest]

I like your Cardinal draft but I am not seeing the same things you are in your first rounder. No way McCoy goes before Suh after the combine bench press. Thats just too dramatic a difference in strength.

No way Claussen goes past the Seahawks TWICE. Pete Carroll socuted the hell out of him as a high school prospect and admittedly loves the kid. And all the people bashing on him as a prospect are not watching the same thing I am am. He has a plus arm, good size, and maybe one of the more accurate QB's to come out in a while. Walterfootball.com makes the case that he is the best Junior QB prospect EVER.

http://walterfootball.com/mattblog091229.php

Saying all that I don't want the Cardinals to draft him. I don't like his makeup personally.

Bradford, if he proves to be healthy, will end up going to the Rams and definitely no later then the Redskins.

I'll name you a Eagles linebacker. Stewart Bradley, and although injured last year, they LOVE him. I don't see Weatherspoon going there.

Mays will rise but I amnot sure that high.

Other then that I love it

 

[juza76]

Mock drafts are so subjective that I have a hard time justifying any critiquing, but here we go as far as the Cards picks...

1-Dan Williams: I don't mind this pick, but it has to be backed up with impact players later in the draft.

2-Brandon Ghee: It sounds stupid to say that I like Ghee in the 3rd round, but not the 2nd, but that is how I feel. I don't believe in a draft this deep that you can draft a guy in the top 60 that underperformed as much as Ghee did in college. Too risky in a draft this deep.

3a-Sean Lee: Probably the best option left at ILB, but that isn't really a good thing. If we don't have an ILB by this pick, we probably should look for players at a different position. I just don't care for a worn down ILB in a defense that is hard on that particular position.

3b-Thaddeus Gibson: Another risk player in my opinion, though I like his potential. If it weren't for Ghee and Sean Lee, I would be a lot more comfortable taking him here. My only other concern is his explosiveness in rushing the passer. We don't have a spot for another mediocre rusher at linebacker.

4-George Selvie: Risky pick is ok here, but how many roster spots do we have for OLB/DE's. With Porter, Baggs, Cody Brown, & Will Davis, this means either Selvie or Gibson has to make it to the PS, which they won't. A waste pick due to limited roster spots.

6 & 7 are toss ups that I don't have issues with.

Too many risk players/college underachievers in my opinion for a very deep defensive draft. We just can't afford to make a total whiff in this draft, and this draft has that potential. I also don't think that we have that many OLB spots open, and neither of these guys projects inside. But, I am not a pro scout or a pro GM, so what the hell do I know?

I LIKE YOUR ANALYSIS...BUT CAN YOU TELL ME SOME PLAYERS CAN FIT GOOD IN THIS TEAM ROUND BY ROUND

 

[Chopper0080]

I LIKE YOUR ANALYSIS...BUT CAN YOU TELL ME SOME PLAYERS CAN FIT GOOD IN THIS TEAM ROUND BY ROUND

Well, that is kinda the issue with running a 3-4 defense. It is hard to scout for players because very few college teams run a 3-4.

(I can give you some of my best guesses later tonight, but I don't watch near enough college football to know for sure)

 

[slinslin]

Edit: Yeah McClain falling in the 2nd round is a pipe dream even with his illness.

1. Sean Weatherspoon/McClain - ILB
2. Cam Thomas/Terrence Cody - NT
3a. Jimmy Graham - TE
3b. Javier Arenas - CB/PR
3c. Jacoby Ford - WR
4. John Skelton - QB
6. Cirion Black - OG
7. Micah Johnson - ILB

Used CBS prospect ratings for round projections. Could grab an Eric Norwood or Sean Lee in the 3rd instead of Ford or Arenas.

 

[WildBB]

Hope the Cards get that 3rd round compensation pick and McClain falls so we can grab him later or trade up from the 2nd round pick to grab him if he falls.

1. Sean Weatherspoon - OLB
2. Rolando McClain - ILB
3a. Javier Arenas - CB/PR
3b. Torrell Troup- NT
3c. Jacoby Ford - WR
4. John Skelton - QB
6. Cirion Black - OG
7. Micah Johnson - ILB

Used CBS prospect ratings for round projections. Could grab an Eric Norwood or Sean Lee in the 3rd instead of Ford or Arenas.

Weatherspoon projects to WILB for us in 3-4. McClain will go in 1st. Like Troup '
Ford Skelto n , Black and Johnson picks though.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Ciron Black is this year's Elton Brown.

Had all the talent in the world coming in at LSU and never got better. Horrible technique, totally lazy, buyer beware. In fact, I think I dislike him as a prospect more than nearly every other prospect in this draft. I'd rather draft Tebow in the 2nd round (being facetious to prove a point) than draft Black.

 

[lauraw]

Great Effort, 9!! I think we will take Cody if he's available, he's a superstar once Lott gets ahold of him...