Football Outsiders: Tackle Someone!/Break a Tackle Already

[kerouac9]

I'm still digging through Football Outsiders' Annual (it takes a lot more time than it used to.

The first thing in the Statistical Appendix is an analysis of team broken tackles:

Arizona's offense: 29th in the NFL with just 40 plays with broken tackles in 933 plays. We broke a tackle just 4.3% of the time.

Interesting context: Baltimore, Green Bay, and the Jets were the teams below us, but they had no fewer than 55 more offensive plays than us and all had more than our 40 plays with broken tackles (we had 45 broken tackles last season).

Clearly, if we're going to run a more catch-and-run-style offense (the kind that Kolb is accustomed to), we're going to have to not fall down as easily. The ball arriving in a place where guys don't have to jump out of their shoes or get hammered by a linebacker will help.

Arizona's defense: 3rd in the NFL, with 80 plays with broken tackles out of 1084--7.4%. There were 80 plays with broken tackles and 95 broken tackles period (!!!).

The physical defenses of the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans were the only ones that allowed a higher percentage of broken tackles, and no team in the NFL allowed more broken tackles than we did.

Clearly, Bill Davis was the main problem with our defense last year. Not scapegoated at all.

 

[kerouac9]

I think this was mentioned in a thread earlier in the offseason, but three Arizona Cardinals appear in the list of the plays with the most broken tackles: Adrian Wilson (2), Paris Lenon (4T), and Kerry Rhodes (11T).

DRC makes the bottom 20 defenders in broken tackle rate at #2 with 10 broken tackles to go with 43 tackles, a rate of 18.9%.

Adrian Wilson places 8th with 16 BTkl and 79 Tkl (16.8%).

Interestingly, Will Witherspoon was 1st in BTR, and old favorite Aaron Francisco was 3rd.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Adrian Wilson places 8th with 16 BTkl and 79 Tkl (16.8%).

Surprising to see Wilson that high, usually he's a sound tackler. Now with his biceps injury, it will make it 100x harder to wrap up, not a good sign of things to come...

 

[TJ]

Clearly, Bill Davis was the main problem with our defense last year. Not scapegoated at all.

So he should still be the DC even though his own players were questioning his system and checking out mid season?

 

[kerouac9]

So he should still be the DC even though his own players were questioning his system and checking out mid season?

If the players stink? Yes. What's the difference if the guys can't tackle anyone? Put in players who can actually play, and they won't blame the system.

The Cards were in the bottom of pretty much every statistical category on offense, and at least adequate in a lot of statistical categories on defense. The defense had the third-worst starting LOS in the NFL last year, and no offensive support.

Of course, what you do is make massive changes to the coaching staff on defense (savvily being able to only get your third-favorite guy to run the defense), but replace only one or two of the terrible defensive players (one of whom was one of the four best players on your team, period). On the other hand, of course you make massive personnel changes on the offense, and replace not a single member of the coaching staff.

IMO, calling out the "system" means "get us some help in the pass rush!" Unfortunately, the only help that was coming was Joey Porter's stinking corpse.

 

[TJ]

If the players stink? Yes. What's the difference if the guys can't tackle anyone? Put in players who can actually play, and they won't blame the system.

The Cards were in the bottom of pretty much every statistical category on offense, and at least adequate in a lot of statistical categories on defense. The defense had the third-worst starting LOS in the NFL last year, and no offensive support.

Of course, what you do is make massive changes to the coaching staff on defense (savvily being able to only get your third-favorite guy to run the defense), but replace only one or two of the terrible defensive players (one of whom was one of the four best players on your team, period). On the other hand, of course you make massive personnel changes on the offense, and replace not a single member of the coaching staff.

IMO, calling out the "system" means "get us some help in the pass rush!" Unfortunately, the only help that was coming was Joey Porter's stinking corpse.

We definitely disagree on the impact a coordinator can have on the psyche of the players. How do you know that Billy wasn't a "stinking corpse" as a DC, like you assert Porter to be? I was rather unimpressed with the way he handled business. I did not like his personnel selection on the field (B. Rob? oy vey). In addition to which, when players start calling out the system publicly and there is no rebuttal, something is wrong. Where there's smoke.....

Bottom line is the team needed a breath of fresh air. The situation on defense last season was not completely systematic, statistically speaking. Players who miss tackles and assignments should be challenged, held accountable and not ignored. That, IMO, is a key variable in the sub par statistics. Do you think if LeBeau left the Steelers and Billy took over as DC that the team would have had just as much success, or would there be a drop off in production, individually and collectively (hint: compare his defense's production when he was the 49ers DC versus the defense's impact after he left)?

I think us as fans did a much better job holding players accountable for their mishaps (easy to do from the couch or the seats at UofP). But the team dynamics cannot be ignored.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Billy Davis sucks and always will suck; to insinutate he was scapegoated is pure folly... Look at what the 49ers defense did when he was in the same position and it would mirror what you saw with the cards.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Tell me this doesnt sound EXACTLY like the Cardinals under Davis:

2005 Season

However, Davis seemed to have difficulty improving the defense. In his first season as the 49ers defensive coordinator, the team ranked last in the NFL in total defense in 2005, averaging 25.8 points a game, a 44.4 % third-down efficiency, and allowing 428 points that season.[5][6]
[edit] 2006 Season

In 2006, Davis' defense was ranked 26th in the NFL.[4] Monte Poole of the Oakland Tribune criticized Davis in October, saying "the defensive coordinator Billy Davis, who drifts between the 4-3 scheme and the 3-4 scheme, not only has been incapable of masking these deficiencies but also seems to find ways to accentuate them."[7]
As soon as early November, rumors began to swirl that Davis could be fired at the end of the season, if not earlier.[8]

Although the second half of the season saw strong performances from cornerback Walt Harris and linebacker Brandon Moore, by the end of the season, the 49ers defense had allowed 412 points in 16 games.[6]

On January 3, 2007, Nolan announced the Davis had been fired stating that "After an evaluation period, we felt this was the right time to make this move".[4] He was replaced by San Diego Chargers linebackers coach Greg Manusky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Davis_(American_football)

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Tell me this doesnt sound EXACTLY like the Cardinals under Davis:

2005 Season

However, Davis seemed to have difficulty improving the defense. In his first season as the 49ers defensive coordinator, the team ranked last in the NFL in total defense in 2005, averaging 25.8 points a game, a 44.4 % third-down efficiency, and allowing 428 points that season.[5][6]
[edit] 2006 Season

In 2006, Davis' defense was ranked 26th in the NFL.[4] Monte Poole of the Oakland Tribune criticized Davis in October, saying "the defensive coordinator Billy Davis, who drifts between the 4-3 scheme and the 3-4 scheme, not only has been incapable of masking these deficiencies but also seems to find ways to accentuate them."[7]
As soon as early November, rumors began to swirl that Davis could be fired at the end of the season, if not earlier.[8]

Although the second half of the season saw strong performances from cornerback Walt Harris and linebacker Brandon Moore, by the end of the season, the 49ers defense had allowed 412 points in 16 games.[6]

On January 3, 2007, Nolan announced the Davis had been fired stating that "After an evaluation period, we felt this was the right time to make this move".[4] He was replaced by San Diego Chargers linebackers coach Greg Manusky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Davis_(American_football)

It's pretty evident Davis shouldn't be a DC. Whiz is the one who hired him, so he certainly deserves a fair share of criticism also. I hope Horton's energy and persistence can ignite a fire under Graves/Whiz to actually try and build a solid defense. The coaches can only put the players in a position to succeed, but if you don't have quality players, then it's practically like being handcuffed.

 

[Renz]

Of course, what you do is make massive changes to the coaching staff on defense (savvily being able to only get your third-favorite guy to run the defense), but replace only one or two of the terrible defensive players (one of whom was one of the four best players on your team, period).

Yeah, he's one of the culprits who couldn't tackle anyone. That's one of the reasons he was shipped out.

 

[kerouac9]

Tell me this doesnt sound EXACTLY like the Cardinals under Davis:

2005 Season

However, Davis seemed to have difficulty improving the defense. In his first season as the 49ers defensive coordinator, the team ranked last in the NFL in total defense in 2005, averaging 25.8 points a game, a 44.4 % third-down efficiency, and allowing 428 points that season.[5][6]
[edit] 2006 Season

In 2006, Davis' defense was ranked 26th in the NFL.[4] Monte Poole of the Oakland Tribune criticized Davis in October, saying "the defensive coordinator Billy Davis, who drifts between the 4-3 scheme and the 3-4 scheme, not only has been incapable of masking these deficiencies but also seems to find ways to accentuate them."[7]
As soon as early November, rumors began to swirl that Davis could be fired at the end of the season, if not earlier.[8]

Although the second half of the season saw strong performances from cornerback Walt Harris and linebacker Brandon Moore, by the end of the season, the 49ers defense had allowed 412 points in 16 games.[6]

On January 3, 2007, Nolan announced the Davis had been fired stating that "After an evaluation period, we felt this was the right time to make this move".[4] He was replaced by San Diego Chargers linebackers coach Greg Manusky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Davis_(American_football)

C'mon, now. That was Mike Nolan's defense and Mike Nolan's personnel. He was brought over from the Baltimore Ravens and Davis was a glorified LBs coach there.

As TJ says, it was Whis who tabbed him to run the Cards' defense.

 

[kerouac9]

We definitely disagree on the impact a coordinator can have on the psyche of the players. How do you know that Billy wasn't a "stinking corpse" as a DC, like you assert Porter to be? I was rather unimpressed with the way he handled business. I did not like his personnel selection on the field (B. Rob? oy vey). In addition to which, when players start calling out the system publicly and there is no rebuttal, something is wrong. Where there's smoke.....

Bottom line is the team needed a breath of fresh air. The situation on defense last season was not completely systematic, statistically speaking. Players who miss tackles and assignments should be challenged, held accountable and not ignored. That, IMO, is a key variable in the sub par statistics. Do you think if LeBeau left the Steelers and Billy took over as DC that the team would have had just as much success, or would there be a drop off in production, individually and collectively (hint: compare his defense's production when he was the 49ers DC versus the defense's impact after he left)?

I think us as fans did a much better job holding players accountable for their mishaps (easy to do from the couch or the seats at UofP). But the team dynamics cannot be ignored.

Because I saw players in positions to make plays over and over again last season, and unable to do so. The best you can do as a schemer is not to get your OLB unblocked altogether, but to get him into a situation where he's one-on-one with an inferior talent like Mario Henderson. Is it somehow Billy Davis's fault that Joey Porter and his $9 million salary can't win an individual battle with Mario Henderson?

Was Billy Davis a good defensive coordinator? Not really. He was probably about average. But what was the message that Whis sent by firing Davis and returning 10 starters to the worst defense in the NFL? Was it that it was the players that were the problem?

Whis owns the personnel on the defense far more than he does the personnel on the offense until last season. The personnel on defense last season were awful, but he didn't make any changes despite making us worse (I'll post later the individual statistics for Greg Toler, Michael Adams, and now Richard Marshall--let's just say for now that there isn't a lot of promise in our current secondary other than the guy running 4th team).

The problem last season was (1) quarterback and (2) pass rush. Whis got his quarterback, then proceeded to add three more offensive weapons through the draft and used... a fifth round pick on an outside linebacker.

Awesome work. Clearly Coach thinks that we have the horses on defense to succeed. Apparently he still thinks that, even when the D seems to be getting dominated by an O whose leader has been with the team all of three weeks.

I agree with you that Ray Horton--the third choice to head up our defense--seems like a great and passionate guy. But many of the best defensive coordinators around the NFL--Belicheck, Mike Nolan, Ron Rivera, Gregg Williams, Greg Manusky, etc.--are not the rah-rah motivators that you're talking about. Heck, Whis isn't a rah-rah motivator. Those guys are generally position coaches. When you move them up to higher roles--like Mac or Singletary--it generally doesn't end well.

 

[TJ]

I agree with you that Ray Horton--the third choice to head up our defense--seems like a great and passionate guy. But many of the best defensive coordinators around the NFL--Belicheck, Mike Nolan, Ron Rivera, Gregg Williams, Greg Manusky, etc.--are not the rah-rah motivators that you're talking about. Heck, Whis isn't a rah-rah motivator. Those guys are generally position coaches. When you move them up to higher roles--like Mac or Singletary--it generally doesn't end well.

But again, Billy Davis has proven to be incapable of succeeding as a DC, who isn't a rah rah type motivator that you seem to despise. And as far as being in any position above and beyond a position coach, it is when they meet the ranks of head coach that they seem to fizzle out. And even then, some of those coaches are unambiguous motivators.

As for Horton, he's still an unproven coordinator; however, he has displayed passion and is not afraid to hold players accountable (see the recent statements about Patrick Peterson), something that Billy never did. And he's certainly not in the league of Mac and Singletary (unless he pulled his pants down in front of his players or something along those lines).

Billy Davis simply doesn't have the prowess to be a defensive coordinator in the NFL. He's proven this twice. His expertise is better suited for being a linebacker's coach. Nothing more. While individual play execution was an issue last season, there was enough proof that they were not put in a position to succeed.

 

[kerouac9]

But again, Billy Davis has proven to be incapable of succeeding as a DC, who isn't a rah rah type motivator that you seem to despise. And as far as being in any position above and beyond a position coach, it is when they meet the ranks of head coach that they seem to fizzle out. And even then, some of those coaches are unambiguous motivators.

As for Horton, he's still an unproven coordinator; however, he has displayed passion and is not afraid to hold players accountable (see the recent statements about Patrick Peterson), something that Billy never did. And he's certainly not in the league of Mac and Singletary (unless he pulled his pants down in front of his players or something along those lines).

Billy Davis simply doesn't have the prowess to be a defensive coordinator in the NFL. He's proven this twice. His expertise is better suited for being a linebacker's coach. Nothing more. While individual play execution was an issue last season, there was enough proof that they were not put in a position to succeed.

What is this based on? Is it based on the defense that stymied Eli Manning and Brett Favre in 2009? The defense that helped the Cards to their 2nd consecutive NFC West title? The defense that lost its best player the following offseason?

Do you think that if you brought Dick LeBeau here and asked him to play with Clark Haggans and Joey Porter's stinking corpse, along with Paris Lenon and Daryl Washington, with Bryan Robinson as his NT, that we're going to see better results than we saw with Davis?

Loot at the tape, and you'll see players in position to succeed, but unable to close the play down. You don't even bother disputing this. By definition, that means that Davis's system was working, and that it was the inferior talent that was letting him down.

You say that Bill Davis wasn't scapegoated. That's an assertion without evidence; you don't even bother to explain how. I'm telling you how Davis was scapegoated: He was fired without a replacement in order, and the exact same talent was brought back and expected to improve somehow (Despite most of the components being on the downside of their careers and another year older). Your response is that Bill Davis was fired because he was bad.

Do you expect this defense to be better this year? How much better? We're going to get an object lesson on whether the design of the defense was bad or the talent was bad in just less than a month. But look at training camp and you'll see that an offense with a QB with three-weeks' experience in the system is dominating this veteran defensive group.

Not a good sign, although no one apparently wants to say so. The defense has been incredible at stopping opposing offenses so far.

 

[Mulli]

You know who else claims they weren't given good enough players? Dave MacGinnis.

 

[40yearfan]

You know who else claims they weren't given good enough players? Dave MacGinnis.

One Heartbeat.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

x's and o's mean nada if the players have quit and don't have the heart to finish out plays.

Davis' players quit on him. Some of that is on the front office who wouldn't let us get a real QB that would instill confidence in the whole team, some of that is on the players themselves, and some of that is on the same Bill Davis who ran that unit.

 

[kerouac9]

You know who else claims they weren't given good enough players? Dave MacGinnis.

When did he ever say this? If he didn't think he had good enough players, he shouldn't have stuck with zeroes like Fred Wakefield.

x's and o's mean nada if the players have quit and don't have the heart to finish out plays.

Davis' players quit on him. Some of that is on the front office who wouldn't let us get a real QB that would instill confidence in the whole team, some of that is on the players themselves, and some of that is on the same Bill Davis who ran that unit.

I'm not saying that Bill Davis was blameless in the 2010 Arizona Cardinals fiasco, but he certainly wasn't the prime culprit.

But when you look at Adrian Wilson whiffing on Zombie Brian Westbrook in the end zone in Week 17, is that because Adrian Wilson quit, or because he's just not good enough anymore?

 

[Mulli]

I heard him say it on the radio here in Chicago.

 

[JeffGollin]

Tops On Card All Opponent Team is...

The Turf Monster.

 

[kerouac9]

I heard him say it on the radio here in Chicago.

Well, you know what they say: It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools.

Mac had personnel authority when he was here. If he didn't like the ingredients he had to work with, he shouldn't have bought wilted produce.

 

[Mulli]

Well, you know what they say: It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools.

Mac had personnel authority when he was here. If he didn't like the ingredients he had to work with, he shouldn't have bought wilted produce.

Actually claimed Bidwill now spend money that they wouldn't spend for him.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Actually claimed Bidwill now spend money that they wouldn't spend for him.

And I think we'd all pretty much agree there's a lot of truth to this statement. Still, it's hard to say that he made the most of his opportunity here. I'm sure he's kicking himself for not taking the Bears job but I suspect his career would have taken a similar turn. Also, failing in Chicago wouldn't have had the built in excuses that came with failing in Bidwill land.

Steve

 

[Bert]

C'mon, now. That was Mike Nolan's defense and Mike Nolan's personnel. He was brought over from the Baltimore Ravens and Davis was a glorified LBs coach there.

As TJ says, it was Whis who tabbed him to run the Cards' defense.

Its impossible to discuss anything with you because when people bring up evidence to contradict you which is every bit as valid as the stuff you come up with, you dismiss it with incredibly amazing and insightful responses like;

"C'mon, now that doesn't count."

Everything we did last season sucked. Changes were in order. Its hard to have a lot of intensity tackling on defense when you're getting killed every week. I'm not judging BD off just last season and I dont think anyone else is. There were glaring holes in his defense the year before and they were just amplified by the cumulative ineptitude of last season.

Davis's defense wasn't any better in the 09 playoffs when we gave up 90 points in two weeks, and oh by the way that's when we had the LEGENDARY players like DRC, Rolle and Dansby, not to mention Okefor, Berry, Hayes. Lot of different faces on that defensive group, but still terrible under BDavis.

Lets re visit this after the season and if those numbers are still that bad, then we can blame the personell and Davis will be cleared of all charges. Until then you are speculating every bit as much as anyone else.

 

[Cardiac]

Its impossible to discuss anything with you because when people bring up evidence to contradict you which is every bit as valid as the stuff you come up with, you dismiss it with incredibly amazing and insightful responses like;

"C'mon, now that doesn't count."

Everything we did last season sucked. Changes were in order. Its hard to have a lot of intensity tackling on defense when you're getting killed every week. I'm not judging BD off just last season and I dont think anyone else is. There were glaring holes in his defense the year before and they were just amplified by the cumulative ineptitude of last season.

Davis's defense wasn't any better in the 09 playoffs when we gave up 90 points in two weeks, and oh by the way that's when we had the LEGENDARY players like DRC, Rolle and Dansby, not to mention Okefor, Berry, Hayes. Lot of different faces on that defensive group, but still terrible under BDavis.

Lets re visit this after the season and if those numbers are still that bad, then we can blame the personell and Davis will be cleared of all charges. Until then you are speculating every bit as much as anyone else.