For those of you that say lose out for a better draft pick ...

[AzStevenCal]

I don't know. He hasn't posted again lately.

5/5.

Steve

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Interesting.... other leagues do the same thing and call it parity.


Quite a few happened last week with Buffalo and Detroit winning.



Small chance. He won't stay in school. I'd choose Bowers and not look back if Luck somehow didn't declare for the draft. It would cost quite a bit to move up. It costs the Giants an additional 1st round and 3rd round picks to move up 3 spots. It's probably more than that now.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he stayed in school. I think he comes out too but it's not a slam dunk like it is with Newton.
If the Cards would be drafting 6th, like they are today, it would cost a bit more but not a ton more. Even if it costs this year's #1 and 2 and next years #1 and 3, I would do it. I don't think the price would be as steep as that but it is still something I would do. I don't think Graves will do that though.

 

[Cardiac]

Nice post and positive proof that it doesn't kill someone to say, "I was wrong."

Thanks. It's easier to admit your wrong if you didn't get into a debate before discovering your mistake.

Thanks! Now that is a post worth reading!

Thanks, glad someone else found the info worth while.

I don't know. He hasn't posted again lately.

Still kicking but it did disable me for a bit.

5/5.

Steve

Sad thing is it took this post for me to get JG's joke, which is a 5/5.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Good debate and rationale for whatever side you find yourself on.

Chris Sanders hit the nail on the head, at least in my case. Before NFL ticket and the internet all I could get was the scores scrolling at the bottom of whatever game I was watching. It was frustrating to see the Cards losing but not the same impact as watching a game that they were losing. In those days I would start to want losses for better draft picks because: I wasn't sitting through the misery of a losing effort and the draft was the only hope we had.

Now I can't stand to watch them lose and I say forget the draft until the season is over. I was in a very good mood this Sunday and I will fret over our draft position less and enjoy the win(s) more.

Ouchie has made some excellent points and if (when) we lose another game I will think about draft position as a consolation prize to help ease the pain of another loss. I fully understand why some fans want the Cards to lose out to enhance our draft position. These are your long term thinkers and the evidence of how important it is to have a Franchise QB and those QB's are found more in rd 1 and % wise more as the 1st pick in the draft.

Ouchie got me thinking about this and my initial thought was, hey what about Brees and Brady and Warner and Favre and Montana; none of them were even taken in the 1st rd let alone pick #1. So I decided to do some research to prove Ouchie wrong and find out my perception was the incorrect one.

Some basic numbers:

Number 1 overall picks at QB that have played in a SB is 11, 8 were the winners. These QB's have accounted for 15 wins, that's about 30% of the SB's by my math.

QB's drafted in rd 1 (excluding the #1 overall picks) that played in a SB is 20 accounting for another 9 SB wins.

So every QB drafted in Rd1 to play in a SB is 26 totalling 24 wins and 22 losses. 44 SB's with 2 QB's per game = 88. 46 of those starts were QB's drafted in Rd1 which is 52%.

Rd 2: 3 QB's with 3 wins and 3 losses.

Rd 3: 6 QB's with 4 wins and 6 losses.

Rd 4: 4 QB's with 1 win and 3 losses

Rd 5: None, Cards break the curse with John Skeleton.

Rd 6: 5 QB's with 4 wins & 3 losses. Lottery odds winner Tom Brady skews this # with 4 SB appearances.

Rd 7: None

All those after Rd 7: 10 QB's with 8 wins and 7 losses.

I have not gone back to see how many QB's were drafted in Rd1 and 1st overall who didn't make it to the SB because that's not the point. If you want to get to the SB picking a QB #1 overall gives you the best odds and taking one in Rd1 is your next best chance.

holy crap! thanks for doing the leg work. cheese and i once sat around and figured out the overwhelming number of round 1 qbs that made it to the superbowl, but never researched it to this extent. this is terrific work and this single post should be stickied for all future debates around this issue.

 

[Cardiac]

holy crap! thanks for doing the leg work. cheese and i once sat around and figured out the overwhelming number of round 1 qbs that made it to the superbowl, but never researched it to this extent. this is terrific work and this single post should be stickied for all future debates around this issue.

Thanks. A number here or there may be wrong due to human error but they are darn close if not perfect.

I was suprised by some of the QB's who were taken in rd 1 and in some cases how high.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Thanks. A number here or there may be wrong due to human error but they are darn close if not perfect.

I was suprised by some of the QB's who were taken in rd 1 and in some cases how high.

Congrats! Better than most of us here talking out of our asses.

 

[Duckjake]

More numbers: Since 1960

% of QBs taken by the Cardinals in the first round who never played a down for the Cards: 40

% of QBs taken by the Cardinals in the first round who never started a full season for the Cardinals: 100

% of QBs taken by the Cardinals in the first round who never played in more than 10 games for the Cardinals 80

George Izo-played two games
Joe Namath-signed with the Jets
Steve Pisarkiewicz-9 games. 14.8 QB rating as a rookie
Kelly Stouffer-0 games traded became 3rd string QB in Seattle
Matt Leinart-29 games in 4 years released became 3rd string QB in Houston

 

[dreamcastrocks]

holy crap! thanks for doing the leg work. cheese and i once sat around and figured out the overwhelming number of round 1 qbs that made it to the superbowl, but never researched it to this extent. this is terrific work and this single post should be stickied for all future debates around this issue.

Agreed. That is fantastic work.

 

[CardLogic]

Some basic numbers:

Number 1 overall picks at QB that have played in a SB is 11, 8 were the winners. These QB's have accounted for 15 wins, that's about 30% of the SB's by my math.

QB's drafted in rd 1 (excluding the #1 overall picks) that played in a SB is 20 accounting for another 9 SB wins.

So every QB drafted in Rd1 to play in a SB is 26 totalling 24 wins and 22 losses. 44 SB's with 2 QB's per game = 88. 46 of those starts were QB's drafted in Rd1 which is 52%.

Rd 2: 3 QB's with 3 wins and 3 losses.

Rd 3: 6 QB's with 4 wins and 6 losses.

Rd 4: 4 QB's with 1 win and 3 losses

Rd 5: None, Cards break the curse with John Skeleton.

Rd 6: 5 QB's with 4 wins & 3 losses. Lottery odds winner Tom Brady skews this # with 4 SB appearances.

Rd 7: None

All those after Rd 7: 10 QB's with 8 wins and 7 losses.

I have not gone back to see how many QB's were drafted in Rd1 and 1st overall who didn't make it to the SB because that's not the point. If you want to get to the SB picking a QB #1 overall gives you the best odds and taking one in Rd1 is your next best chance.

holy crap! thanks for doing the leg work. cheese and i once sat around and figured out the overwhelming number of round 1 qbs that made it to the superbowl, but never researched it to this extent. this is terrific work and this single post should be stickied for all future debates around this issue.

I looked at Cardiac's numbers again...

So it can be derived from the numbers that picking a 1st round QB can increase a teams chance of playing in a Super Bowl.

However interestingly enough, it can also be derived; albeit, a limited sample; that after having arrived at a Super Bowl, a 1st round pick doesn't have any better odds of winning it than a 8th round or later pick!

(1st round: 24wins/46starts = 52.17% and 8th or later round: 8wins/15starts = 53.33% )

 

[Cardiac]

I looked at Cardiac's numbers again...

So it can be derived from the numbers that picking a 1st round QB can increase a teams chance of playing in a Super Bowl.

However interestingly enough, it can also be derived; albeit, a limited sample; that after having arrived at a Super Bowl, a 1st round pick doesn't have any better odds of winning it than a 8th round or later pick!

(1st round: 24wins/46starts = 52.17% and 8th or later round: 8wins/15starts = 53.33% )

I noticed this as well when I was putting together the numbers. The 8th rd or later is skewed somewhat by Bart Starr, Johnny Unitus and Roger Staubach. The draft process in the early years was far from the science it is today. Roger the dodger had the whole military comittment that forced him to drop in the draft IIRC.

Also Jim Kelly racks up 4 losses for 1st rd QB's all by himself.

 

[Duckjake]

How sad has this season been and how sad is the matchup tomorrow.

Saturday Night and there's hardly been any talk about the game at all this week.

 

[Shane]

How sad has this season been and how sad is the matchup tomorrow.

Saturday Night and there's hardly been any talk about the game at all this week.

I'm still stoked! I mean it is still Cardinal football damn it!

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

everyone better be prepared . . .

i am . . .

. . . 2 more cards losses (virtually guaranteed with this bunch of crap) . . .

. . . 1 more panthers win (imminently possible with the potential for falcons to rest all starters in final game of season with nothing left on line to play for) . . .

. . . and an andrew luck entering the draft declaration (also likely - it's tough to make up lost revenue if you fall from the first overall pick in a draft) . . .

. . . from my first official "I TOLD YOU SO" thread of all time. the planets keep aligning . . .

 

[Evil Ash]

everyone better be prepared . . .

i am . . .

. . . 2 more cards losses (virtually guaranteed with this bunch of crap) . . .

. . . 1 more panthers win (imminently possible with the potential for falcons to rest all starters in final game of season with nothing left on line to play for) . . .

. . . and an andrew luck entering the draft declaration (also likely - it's tough to make up lost revenue if you fall from the first overall pick in a draft) . . .

. . . from my first official "I TOLD YOU SO" thread of all time. the planets keep aligning . . .

Its not likely that Luck comes out unless Harbaugh moves on. His parents are loaded and want him to get his degree (his dad is a former NFL player BTW).

He could be tempted to leave but I'd say there are more signs to him going back. Just because you WANT him to leave doesn't mean that he WILL leave

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Its not likely that Luck comes out unless Harbaugh moves on. His parents are loaded and want him to get his degree (his dad is a former NFL player BTW).

He could be tempted to leave but I'd say there are more signs to him going back. Just because you WANT him to leave doesn't mean that he WILL leave

and for all the previously mentioned reasons (in response to your other comment in the other thread - i'm not going to jump from thread to thread typing the same thing over and over again, i'll leave that to you), i believe that he will come out. and i'd like at least the CHANCE to draft him if so decides. without the #1 pick, we don't even have that chance. and let's hold off any ridiculous talk of trading up. we've never traded up to the #1 pick. and it's my contention that we never will.

 

[conraddobler]

and for all the previously mentioned reasons (in response to your other comment in the other thread - i'm not going to jump from thread to thread typing the same thing over and over again, i'll leave that to you), i believe that he will come out. and i'd like at least the CHANCE to draft him if so decides. without the #1 pick, we don't even have that chance. and let's hold off any ridiculous talk of trading up. we've never traded up to the #1 pick. and it's my contention that we never will.

I think he comes out too but that's just MO and I think you're right, no way we'll trade up to get him, although I think we should.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think he comes out too but that's just MO and I think you're right, no way we'll trade up to get him, although I think we should.

i mean, for a player with nfl aspirations, what could possibly keep you from being the #1 pick?

i come from a financially comfortable family. education was important to me, to my family, and in my cultural background. if i'm the #1 pick in the draft? hullo nfl! ah, degree . . . i'll finish you up a little later.

 

[Evil Ash]

i mean, for a player with nfl aspirations, what could possibly keep you from being the #1 pick?

A chance to win the Heisman, a chance at a national title??

Hard to say as its different strokes for different folks. Peyton Manning went back to school and it didn't hurt him

Don't get me wrong. I'm with you, I have no idea why he wants to go back, he should come out. If it was me I couldn't declare for the draft fast enough. I'm just saying that there are alot more signs of him going back then going pro.

The only thing that bugs me is people bitching like its a certainty that he will come out and that is "Same Old Cards" to win when they could take a franchise QB like Luck. You know what would be even more "Same Old Cards" then that? Tanking the season for a guy that goes back to school.

Win when you can. Worry about the draft when it comes around

 

[oaken1]

A chance to win the Heisman, a chance at a national title??

Hard to say as its different strokes for different folks. Peyton Manning went back to school and it didn't hurt him

Don't get me wrong. I'm with you, I have no idea why he wants to go back, he should come out. If it was me I couldn't declare for the draft fast enough. I'm just saying that there are alot more signs of him going back then going pro.

The only thing that bugs me is people bitching like its a certainty that he will come out and that is "Same Old Cards" to win when they could take a franchise QB like Luck. You know what would be even more "Same Old Cards" then that? Tanking the season for a guy that goes back to school.

Win when you can. Worry about the draft when it comes around

Luck cannot actually come out and say he is going pro anyway can he?? I would think it would violate some sort of NCAA rules,....not to mention, it would be difficult in the locker room, prepping for the bowl game, with all of his team mates that are going to be in school next year no matter what..... I have heard the kid is a good leader,...if that is so, he will give no indication of being anywhere other than where he is until this season is completely finished.

 

[Evil Ash]

Luck cannot actually come out and say he is going pro anyway can he?? I would think it would violate some sort of NCAA rules,....not to mention, it would be difficult in the locker room, prepping for the bowl game, with all of his team mates that are going to be in school next year no matter what..... I have heard the kid is a good leader,...if that is so, he will give no indication of being anywhere other than where he is until this season is completely finished.

No he can't declare yet. Well I suppose technically he could but it wouldn't be the best idea due to the things you listed.

However , you can generally get a good feel for what a person is thinking in terms of what he plans on doing (body language, how he answers questions regarding the subject, how he acts on campus, etc). In fact usually its pretty common knowledge around this time of year who is going to go pro.

In his case there are signs of him staying put and I honestly don't think he knows what he's going to do. If things stay in their current state (ie Harbaugh not going anywhere), I'd say its 75/25 he stays in school. To me thats just not worth the risk of tanking the season for.

 

[oaken1]

No he can't declare yet. Well I suppose technically he could but it wouldn't be the best idea due to the things you listed.

However , you can generally get a good feel for what a person is thinking in terms of what he plans on doing (body language, how he answers questions regarding the subject, how he acts on campus, etc). In fact usually its pretty common knowledge around this time of year who is going to go pro.

In his case there are signs of him staying put and I honestly don't think he knows what he's going to do. If things stay in their current state (ie Harbaugh not going anywhere), I'd say its 75/25 he stays in school. To me thats just not worth the risk of tanking the season for.

I do not know much about the kid,....but it would fall in line with Cardinal lore if we did tank the season, he would decide to stay in school....we would then either reach for the next guy, or trade for two picks around 15 and pick a couple guys nobody ever heard of who would be late to camp and then out of the league in three years.

 

[Mulli]

everyone better be prepared . . .

i am . . .

. . . 2 more cards losses (virtually guaranteed with this bunch of crap) . . .

. . . 1 more panthers win (imminently possible with the potential for falcons to rest all starters in final game of season with nothing left on line to play for) . . .

. . . and an andrew luck entering the draft declaration (also likely - it's tough to make up lost revenue if you fall from the first overall pick in a draft) . . .

. . . from my first official "I TOLD YOU SO" thread of all time. the planets keep aligning . . .

Who cares! I hope you turn out to be right and the Cards get the #1.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Luck could come out tonight and declare for the draft. I don't think it's official until after the NC game though. Of course he couldn't "officially" sign with an agent until after the bowl game because he'd be inelgible.

 

[desertdawg]

Luck could come out tonight and declare for the draft. I don't think it's official until after the NC game though. Of course he couldn't "officially" sign with an agent until after the bowl game because he'd be inelgible.

He's gotta wait till after the bowl game if he is a team first kinda guy.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

He's gotta wait till after the bowl game if he is a team first kinda guy.

I know, he'd never announce before the game. That would be very selfish on his part.