What the 2005 NBA draft lacks in size, it makes up for in one of the deepest and most diverse point-guard classes in the past 10 years.
We said similar things last year about a class that included Shaun Livingston, Devin Harris, Ben Gordon (who might never actually play point), Jameer Nelson and Beno Udrih. But the emphasis is even stronger this year.
"This is the deepest point-guard class that I can ever remember," one GM told Insider. "It's not very top-heavy. Chris Paul is the only guy I think can be a superstar at the next level, but there are a lot of guys on the list this year that will play a long time in the league."
Many of them are concentrated in the ACC – as many as five ACC point guards could go in the first round this year.
They come in all sizes and flavors. There are old-school, pass-first point guards. High-octane combo guards who can score at a furious clip. There are small point guards who give you the speed to run a high-octane offense and big guards who can play multiple positions, create defensive nightmares and see over their opponents.
And then there are a handful of players whom we don't know about for sure. Some scouts say they're shooting guards. Others say they can be turned into points. Typically, the in-betweens tend to be shooting guards in point-guard clothing. But with the success of players such as Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade and Chauncey Billups running and gunning, there's now a place for those guys too.
Here's our first look at what should be a decent point-guard class.
Note: The list includes all players who we believe might declare for the 2005 draft.
1. Chris Paul, Wake Forest
The line: 6-1, 170, sophomore
The skinny: Paul is a consensus top-three pick in the draft. Scouts believe he is the best point-guard prospect since Jason Kidd. Not just some of them. Everyone Insider talked to. It's easy to understand why scouts absolutely love him. He is T.J. Ford with a jumper. He's lightning quick, has unbelievable court vision, is a superb decision-maker and shoots the lights out from the field and the 3-point line. He pushes the ball relentlessly on offense and already is one of the best penetrators in the game. His defense is also top-notch. Teams wish Paul was stronger, but given his age they believe that will come. Paul continues to claim that he's returning to Wake for his junior season regardless of what the draft buzz is surrounding him. However, if his hometown Bobcats get the first pick in the draft and let him know he's their choice, he might have a tough time saying no.
2. Deron Williams, Illinois
The line: 6-3, 210, junior
The skinny: More and more scouts are claiming that the second-best point-guard prospect is Williams. While Paul is getting tagged as the best point-guard prospect since Kidd, Williams is getting the rep as the player whose style and body most resemble Kidd's. "Deron is a lot like Kidd in the halfcourt," one NBA scout said. "They play the same way. They're both straight-line guys. Once he gets his hip on you, he's gone. Deron's not as fast as Kidd in the open court, but Deron can shoot. Jason can't." Not everyone agrees. Some scouts think he lacks the speed and quickness to be a great NBA point guard. However, most scouts feel that Williams' playmaking ability, size, strength and floor vision make up for his lack of speed in the open court. Look for him to go anywhere between the late lottery to mid-first round.
3. Raymond Felton, North Carolina
The line: 6-1, 198, junior
The skinny: It's not clear whether Felton will be in the draft, but if he is he'll challenge Williams to be the second point guard taken. Felton's lack of size and his inconsistent shooting stroke hurt his cause, but his blazing speed and feel for running a team make up for it. Several scouts consider Felton the best "pure" point guard in this group. Right now, Felton is considered a late lottery to mid-first-rounder.
4. Daniel Gibson, Texas
The line: 6-2, 190, freshman
The skinny: Gibson has just about everything you could ask for in a point guard. He's an excellent athlete, he's very quick and he has good size for the position. He has the ability to score from the perimeter or by attacking the basket, and he's great in the open court. He has excellent floor vision and never lets his scoring get in the way of getting his teammates involved. But is he ready? He's still turnover-prone and makes too many mistakes. He says he'll turn pro if he's guaranteed a lottery pick. Right now, scouts have him in the 15-20 range. Another year in school and he'll be in the lottery for sure.
5. Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas
The line: 6-7, 210, sophomore
The skinny: Some scouts believe that Brewer has the tools to be a point guard in the pros. That makes him an incredibly sexy prospect at 6-foot-7. His excellent athleticism, long arms and ball-handling skills have drawn comparisons to Marquis Daniels. Brewer, however, plays with an aggressiveness that often surpasses what Daniels did at the collegiate level. Brewer is a good defender, using his long arms to swipe away passes in the lane. The only question scouts really have about Brewer is his outside shot. Despite the fact that he's shooting 41 percent from 3-point range, scouts have uniformly complained about his shooting mechanics. That concern extends all the way to the free-throw line, where he shoots just 65 percent. He's looked at as a mid-to-late first-round pick.
6. Guillermo Diaz, Miami
The line: 6-2, 183, sophomore
The skinny: Diaz is, hands down, one of the most athletic guards to eye the draft in quite a while. Depending on who you ask, his vertical jump ranges anywhere from 45 to 50 inches. This year, he's proved that he's more than just a great dunker. His outside shot and his decision-making skills have improved. No one questions his heart. Diaz is a fierce competitor whose toughness on the court has made Heat president Pat Riley a fan. While few in the league refer to him as a point guard, he sees the floor well enough to play that position in the NBA – at least part time. He still plays out of control and tries to do too much, but the talent is undeniable. Sources claim that Diaz is likely to test the draft waters this summer. With the success of combo guards such as Dwyane Wade, Gilbert Arenas and Ben Gordon, teams are going to give him a long look in the mid-to-late first round.
7. Monta Ellis, Lanier High School (Jackson, Miss.)
The line: 6-3, 175, high school senior
The skinny: Ellis does just about everything well. But is he a point guard? He's an unbelievable scorer who averages 41 ppg. But he is also a good passer with a polished game. Scouts say that he plays with an amazing amount of control for a high school kid. He also has the rep as a great shooter with a lightning-quick release. Ellis is not an elite athlete, but he's athletic enough to play at a higher level. Word around the league is that Ellis already has decided to test the waters. His draft position is difficult to predict right now. It all depends on whether scouts see him as a real point guard or a combo guard. If they decide he's a point, he's likely to go somewhere in the 20s. If they don't, he'd better honor his commitment to Mississippi State.
8. Mardy Collins, Temple
The line: 6-5, 205, junior
The skinny: The 6-5 junior point guard has earned respect from a number of NBA scouts after putting on dominating displays against Wake Forest (25 points, five rebounds, seven steals) and Duke (23 points, six rebounds, six steals). In the Wake game, scouts walked away saying that Collins had outplayed Paul, many people's pick for the top selection in the draft. Unlike other "big" point guards, Collins isn't just a combo guard with a few passing skills. He can handle the ball, set up the offense, make the spectacular play and score when his team needs him. He's not the best 3-point shooter of the group and has trouble defensively against small, quick point guards. Still, scouts are already calling him a first-round draft sleeper if he chooses to come out. His stock has been steadily rising all year. Don't be surprised if he moves up several spots on this board by the time of the draft.
9. Jarrett Jack, Georgia Tech
The line: 6-3, 200, junior
The skinny: Jack is having another up-and-down year. That's not really the image you want to project if you're a point guard. He really knows how to run a team. He has good size and nice court vision, as well as an NBA body and athleticism. He's an excellent rebounder for a point guard. He's also a good defender who collects a decent number of steals. Still, scouts worry that he plays a little out of control at times. His 3.7 turnovers per game are fairly high for such a natural point. He doesn't have great 3-point range on his jumper, and he struggles to shoot off the dribble. Jack is all over the board as far as his draft stock goes. Some have him as a mid-first-round selection. Most, however, have him ranked in the mid-to-high 20s. He might have to return to college for his senior season.
10. John Gilchrist, Maryland
The line: 6-2, 200, junior
The skinny: Gilchrist is tough, has great athleticism and an NBA body, can score and pass, and has hit some clutch shots for Maryland in the past two years. So why isn't he ranked higher on the list? He's so much like like Stephon Marbury in style and attitude that he's scaring off a number of scouts who feel that Marbury's style of play puts up great numbers but doesn't win in the NBA. After a great start this season, Gilchrist hit a disastrous midseason slump that sent his stock plummeting. He's still on the first-round bubble, but given the beating he's taken this year it might be wise to return for his senior season.
Best of the rest: Roko Leni Ukic, Croatia; Curtis Stinson, Iowa State; Daniel Ewing, Duke; Luther Head, Illinois; ; Chris Thomas, Notre Dame; Travis Diener, Marquette; Anthony Roberson, Florida; Aaron Miles, Kansas; Tim Smith, East Tennessee State; Jose Juan Barea, Northeastern; Ivan Koljevic, Serbia; Ender Arslan, Turkey; Marcelo Huertas, Brazil
Wait until next year: Uros Tripkovic, Serbia; Rajon Rondo, Kentucky; Sergio Rodriguez, Spain; Jordan Farmar, UCLA; Marcus Williams, UConn; Mustafa Shakur, Arizona; Justin Gray, Wake Forest; Bracey Wright, Indiana; Dee Brown, Illinois; Jeff Horner, Iowa; Taquan Dean, Louisville; Darius Washington Jr., Memphis; Churchill Odia, Xavier; George Tsintsadze, Russia; Cenk Akyol, Turkey
Draft Cards
<li>A number of scouts over the past few weeks have called to claim that New Mexico senior forward Danny Granger may be the most underrated prospect in the draft. Says one NBA scout, "If he were at Duke, he'd be a top-five pick right now."
Granger has been battling injuries for the past few weeks, but if you've seen him play healthy you can sympathize. He's long, athletic, physical, has a huge heart and has even added a 3-pointer to his arsenal. At 6-8 and 230, what isn't to like?
Look for Granger to work his way into the late lottery to mid-first round once he gets into workouts. There aren't very many draft prospects who will be able to hang with Granger in an NBA draft workout.
<li>Another college senior on the NBA's "Most Underrated" list is Florida's David Lee. Lee has played out of position for most of his college days and hasn't performed to the level many scouts expected when he came out of high school. But for an up-tempo team looking for a big man who can run the floor, play both inside and on the perimeter, shoot a high percentage from outside and grab rebounds, Lee has the makings of a second-round steal.
"He's never been used the right way [at] Florida," one NBA scout said. "He doesn't get enough touches on the offensive end and he's always been asked to guard people he has no business guarding. I think he's a guy who will rise once teams get their hands on him in workouts."
<li>Speaking of underrated college seniors, don't sleep on Charlotte forward Eddie Basden. ESPN's Jay Bilas calls him the best defender in college hoops, and scouts don't disagree. He's an athletic, physical small forward who can guard four positions on the floor. His offensive game also has grown. He's really found a niche for himself penetrating to the basket, and his jump shot has improved every year. He's also a terrific rebounder for someone his size.
Basden is another second-round sleeper who could come in and really help a team.
<li>Swingman Shawne Williams, playing in Laurinberg (N.C.), is the hot name in high school hoops right now. His versatility, size (6-foot-9), wingspan, super athleticism, physical strength and improving perimeter game have scouts drooling. Like a number of other top high school players, he's seriously considering a jump straight to the NBA. If he makes the leap, scouts say he would be one of the first three high school guys off the board – along with Gerald Green and Martell Webster – and a likely mid-first-round selection.
<li>A number of NBA personnel skipped the All-Star game to watch the King's Cup in Spain two weekends ago. A number of NBA prospects are playing in Spain this season, and representatives from nearly every NBA team were there to watch prospects like Fran Vasquez, Tiago Splitter, Axel Hervelle, Sergio Rodreguiz and Mickaël Gelabale.
No one had a breakout tournament. But scouts came back claiming that Vasquez continues to firm up his draft status as a mid-to-late lottery pick.
Splitter continued to play to mixed reviews, though he's won over a few skeptics since last season.
Gelabale probably helped himself the most. The 6-8 small forward from France showed an improved jumper. Still, he's a second-round pick at this point.
Chad Ford writes a weekly NBA draft column for ESPN Insider.
I like Ronnie Brewer but I don't see him running the point for a successful NBA team. Anyone who's seen Danny Granger play know he belongs in the NBA, but I think it'd take a team like the Suns to find a position for him. He's a tweener forward. Could be an interesting pick, though.
I'd be pretty happy if the Suns came home with a Daniel Gibson with the Chicago pick. I can live with his TOs if he's helping other players pick up points in the open court. I can't believe he's not more highly regarded.
I'd like to see Danny Granger more, I do like Deron Williams, Felton, Warrick - maybe those more than others but I really like SG's/SF's in Draft (even others not listed). Garcia looks like a decent Prospect but we might not have a need.
Like they'd listen to me?
