Free Agency 2018

[Mr. Boldin]

Favors is already declining. During the three seasons 2013-16, he averaged roughly 15/8.5/1.5 blocks. He was an afterthought last season due to injury, but even this year he has settled for a much lower level of production. His shot selection has improved (career high FG%) and some of the loss in rebounds might be attributable to Gobert, but he's still not someone who could be considered a quality building block.

I like Randle as well. The question is will the Lakers pay to keep him as a RFA. He might be a good target if the Lakers want to sign a star quality player. The Suns are one of the few teams that has the money to spend.

I'd much rather have Randle.

Randle makes some sense. Hes still better with more space to work with. Would be a good fit with a guy like JJJ who can protect the rim and try to space the floor. Meh about him and Ayton. Still contend you would be better with a combo forward with some defensive/shooting skills next to Ayton.

 

[Hoop Head]

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Some shooters available this offseason -

Point Guards:
Trade for Kemba? Not a lot of great options here

Swings:
Tyreke Evans
JJ Redick
Will Barton
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Wayne Ellington
Marco Belinelli
Jamal Crawford
Seth Curry
Trevor Ariza

Bigs:
Luc Mbah a Moute
Ersan Ilyasova
Nemanja Bjelica
Brook Lopez
Dewayne Dedmon

I avoided unrealistic options and (for the most part) players with options and restricted free agents. Feel free to add any I missed.

That's a good list, I'd add Favors to the bigs but that seems about right from what I've seen. They're going to need to gamble on a RFA if they hope to add a PG with upside. I wouldn't mind the Suns trying what Pat Riley did to the Clippers years back when he went after Elton Brand, who was a RFA and they matched that deal, and then he signed Lamar Odom, who they weren't able to match since they just paid Brand big money. Do that with Boston's PG's, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier. I'd prefer Rozier, but I'd be ok with Smart. The cost matters but Boston can't afford to pay either very much and can't afford to keep both.

 

[Mr. Boldin]

That's a good list, I'd add Favors to the bigs but that seems about right from what I've seen. They're going to need to gamble on a RFA if they hope to add a PG with upside. I wouldn't mind the Suns trying what Pat Riley did to the Clippers years back when he went after Elton Brand, who was a RFA and they matched that deal, and then he signed Lamar Odom, who they weren't able to match since they just paid Brand big money. Do that with Boston's PG's, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier. I'd prefer Rozier, but I'd be ok with Smart. The cost matters but Boston can't afford to pay either very much and can't afford to keep both.

Rozier has a year left before RFA. Smart would fit the bill of a big defensive guard, but he cant shoot a lick.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Rozier has a year left before RFA. Smart would fit the bill of a big defensive guard, but he cant shoot a lick.

And smart is not a pg

 

[Hoop Head]

Suns are supposedly enamored with Capela and plan to offer him a max deal. I don't think Capela is worth the max but we could do worse. Houston has said they'll match any offers to him but that will put them to the test because the'll be in luxury tax territory if they match and then resign Paul. Capela has been big for the Rockets in this postseason also so I don't see them getting hung up on cost to retain him. If they get swept by the Warriors or lose in 5, maybe they reconsider? I guess that depends on how well Capela does. Rumors linked Lebron to Houston before also, which could change their plans also. I don't think Lebron will go there though. He wouldn't have near the control he does in Cleveland. That's Mike D's team and Daryl Morey is their GM, Lebron isn't telling either of them how to do their job to benefit him.



https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/20...free-agency-phoenix-suns-max-contract-source/

 

[Phrazbit]

I would be absolutely shocked if LeBron went anywhere in the Western conference. Houston can't make the space to sign him unless they forgo the rights to all their free agents and have a team that is basically LeBron, Harden and... Gordon and Anderson?

The path to the finals is just soooooo much easier in the East and you've got Philly with the ability to sign him outright and lose no one in the process. Although, it would be hilarious if Boston went after LeBron by dumping Kyrie's salary to make space.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Suns are supposedly enamored with Capela and plan to offer him a max deal. I don't think Capela is worth the max but we could do worse. Houston has said they'll match any offers to him but that will put them to the test because the'll be in luxury tax territory if they match and then resign Paul. Capela has been big for the Rockets in this postseason also so I don't see them getting hung up on cost to retain him. If they get swept by the Warriors or lose in 5, maybe they reconsider? I guess that depends on how well Capela does. Rumors linked Lebron to Houston before also, which could change their plans also. I don't think Lebron will go there though. He wouldn't have near the control he does in Cleveland. That's Mike D's team and Daryl Morey is their GM, Lebron isn't telling either of them how to do their job to benefit him.



https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/20...free-agency-phoenix-suns-max-contract-source/

Fortunately for Capela, his contract is expiring next summer at a time when the market couldn’t be better for a young two-way big who becomes a restricted free agent last season. Morey opted not to re-sign Capela before the extension deadline, but spoke highly of how much Capela is worth to ESPN’s Tim McMahon.

“We’ll have him here as long as he’ll have us,” Morey said. “He couldn’t price himself out.”

That was in November, and he has only upped his value since then. I would absolutely give Capela the max (especially considering he is young and not all max contracts are equal), but I would be shocked if Houston didn't match.

I guess if he absolutely fell on his face against Golden State and the Warriors swept the Rockets, PLUS a James or George was intent on signing, there's a chance...but I think for all the reasons the Suns would love to do this Houston will plan to keep him at all costs.

Also, I guess he's worth a lot to ESPN's Tim McMahon. Not sure why the author of the article felt that was relevant.

 

[overseascardfan]

I would be absolutely shocked if LeBron went anywhere in the Western conference. Houston can't make the space to sign him unless they forgo the rights to all their free agents and have a team that is basically LeBron, Harden and... Gordon and Anderson?

The path to the finals is just soooooo much easier in the East and you've got Philly with the ability to sign him outright and lose no one in the process. Although, it would be hilarious if Boston went after LeBron by dumping Kyrie's salary to make space.

The thing is LeBron needs a supporting cast to beat GS. CLE will get to Finals over BOS this year but next year if Hayward & Irving fully recover with all the other talent in BOS, CLE probably doesn’t get past them. Also, CLE probably won’t be a FA destination for big FAs so if LeBron wants a super team he can choose one and they’ll make room of course. Would a Big 3 in HOU with Paul & Harden have a better chance to beat GS or a CLE team with LeBron and a bunch of other guys? I don’t think a LAL team with LeBron, George & Ball beat a GS team, but west coast could work for LeBron if he goes to the right super team.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The thing is LeBron needs a supporting cast to beat GS. CLE will get to Finals over BOS this year but next year if Hayward & Irving fully recover with all the other talent in BOS, CLE probably doesn’t get past them. Also, CLE probably won’t be a FA destination for big FAs so if LeBron wants a super team he can choose one and they’ll make room of course. Would a Big 3 in HOU with Paul & Harden have a better chance to beat GS or a CLE team with LeBron and a bunch of other guys? I don’t think a LAL team with LeBron, George & Ball beat a GS team, but west coast could work for LeBron if he goes to the right super team.

But Cleveland DOES have this year’s Nets lottery pick . . .

 

[Phrazbit]

The thing is LeBron needs a supporting cast to beat GS. CLE will get to Finals over BOS this year but next year if Hayward & Irving fully recover with all the other talent in BOS, CLE probably doesn’t get past them. Also, CLE probably won’t be a FA destination for big FAs so if LeBron wants a super team he can choose one and they’ll make room of course. Would a Big 3 in HOU with Paul & Harden have a better chance to beat GS or a CLE team with LeBron and a bunch of other guys? I don’t think a LAL team with LeBron, George & Ball beat a GS team, but west coast could work for LeBron if he goes to the right super team.

I don't see how they keep Paul and sign LeBron without one of them choosing to play for a crazy small contract number. Houston's cap holds from Paul and Capela will put them over the limit.

If he bails for a potential super team then Philly makes waaaaaaay more sense.

 

[rocker]

Suns are supposedly enamored with Capela and plan to offer him a max deal. I don't think Capela is worth the max but we could do worse. Houston has said they'll match any offers to him but that will put them to the test because the'll be in luxury tax territory if they match and then resign Paul. Capela has been big for the Rockets in this postseason also so I don't see them getting hung up on cost to retain him. If they get swept by the Warriors or lose in 5, maybe they reconsider? I guess that depends on how well Capela does. Rumors linked Lebron to Houston before also, which could change their plans also. I don't think Lebron will go there though. He wouldn't have near the control he does in Cleveland. That's Mike D's team and Daryl Morey is their GM, Lebron isn't telling either of them how to do their job to benefit him.



https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/20...free-agency-phoenix-suns-max-contract-source/

Is this showing Suns intention not to draft Ayton?

 

[overseascardfan]

I don't see how they keep Paul and sign LeBron without one of them choosing to play for a crazy small contract number. Houston's cap holds from Paul and Capela will put them over the limit.

If he bails for a potential super team then Philly makes waaaaaaay more sense.

If HOU renounced Capela and others they could sign LeBron to team with Paul & Harden. Yeah, LeBron could go to PHI but MIN would be a better choice.

 

[Phrazbit]

If HOU renounced Capela and others they could sign LeBron to team with Paul & Harden. Yeah, LeBron could go to PHI but MIN would be a better choice.

Why would Minnesota be better? Also in the West, and KAT is not near the player Embiid is.

I think Houston would have to renounce Paul too, his cap hold will be like 30 mil before he signs a contract.

 

[Hoop Head]

Is this showing Suns intention not to draft Ayton?

I don't think so. There is only a 25% chance they'll get the #1 pick, might as well come up with a plan in case they don't land that.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I don't think so. There is only a 25% chance they'll get the #1 pick, might as well come up with a plan in case they don't land that.

Yup. Which is why I’m not up in arms.

Look, if our worst case draft and best case FA nets us Young/Capela, I’d be pretty stoked with that amassing of young talent.

Young
Booker
Jackson
?????
Capela

Is a really nice balance of scorers and distributors in the back court with lots of athleticism/potential on D behind them.

 

[pokerface]

I don't think so. There is only a 25% chance they'll get the #1 pick, might as well come up with a plan in case they don't land that.

Agreed. It's being realistic. Plus If Bender/Chriss got dealt this offseason there would be more room in the frontcourt as well.

 

[Cheesebeef]

My biggest fear with Capela is he ends up Ibaka-esque. A somewhat limited big who’s a perfect fit in a system where everyone can shoot and score and is left to solely focus on D, where he might be asked to do more here and we’d be paying him as such.

I’d just hate to have a Harden situation where there’s not enough money to go round because there’s an Ibaka already on the team.

 

[pokerface]

My biggest fear with Capela is he ends up Ibaka-esque. A somewhat limited big who’s a perfect fit in a system where everyone can shoot and score and is left to solely focus on D, where he might be asked to do more here and we’d be paying him as such.

I’d just hate to have a Harden situation where there’s not enough money to go round because there’s an Ibaka already on the team.

A legit concern although the suns get turned down more than they get takers.
Capella would fit in nice and we wouldn't have to give up talent.

 

[Folster]

Here's a really cool site to help people understand the cap situation.

shamsports.com/capulator

You can edit the roster for 2018-19. By releasing all cap holds and waiving all non guaranteed deals, the Suns can only free up 19-20 million depending on where our pick ends up.

We'd have to trade to free up more room or waive and stretch Tyson or Duds to free up more.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Capela at 15 million, pricey, but worth it. Capela at 25 million, scary, and not worth it IMO.

I like Capela but I wonder, how often does a team overpay to bring in a free agent and not end up regretting it?

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Capela at 15 million, pricey, but worth it. Capela at 25 million, scary, and not worth it IMO.

I like Capela but I wonder, how often does a team overpay to bring in a free agent and not end up regretting it?

I know he's in an ideal situation, but he's 23 years old, can play elite interior defense and switch to the perimeter, and his stats in the playoffs are really, really good:

Tied for 2nd in the entire playoffs in FG%.

1st in the entire playoffs in Blocks Per Game.

4th in the entire playoffs in Rebounds Per Game.

In the regular season, almost as good:

1st in the entire league in FG%.

2nd in the entire league in Blocks Per Game.

8th in the entire league in Rebounds Per Game.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I know he's in an ideal situation, but he's 23 years old, can play elite interior defense and switch to the perimeter, and his stats in the playoffs are really, really good:

I'm not against the player, I'm against a max contract for a mostly one way player. I think the league is struggling right now to learn just what level a max player has to be at in order to justify that salary but I don't think Clint is all that close to it. I like him but if you're not capable of spreading the court at a Houston level, I expect a drop-off offensively if he goes elsewhere.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm not against the player, I'm against a max contract for a mostly one way player. I think the league is struggling right now to learn just what level a max player has to be at in order to justify that salary but I don't think Clint is all that close to it. I like him but if you're not capable of spreading the court at a Houston level, I expect a drop-off offensively if he goes elsewhere.

The more I think about it, the more I agree.

It’s a panic, press the fast forward button move instead of continuing the slowly but surely building of the team from the ground up.

The Warriors didn’t hand out a MAX deal while they built and only did AFTER they won the title and that was to the 2nd best player in the game.

The Celtics took YEARS of rebuilding through the draft until they got to the ECF before they gave a MAX deal to Hayward and brought in Kyrie.

The Sixers have been slow and steady, no long term huge contracts.

Rebuild through the draft... that’s what we’re doing and that’s what we should do for the next year or two until we at least show ourselves to be a fringe playoff contender.

At that point... if the young talent is really starting to gel and there is a MASSIVE game changer out there, THAT’S when you spend big.

Not when you’re the worst team in the league and still at least a year from even sniffing the 8 seed.

 

[overseascardfan]

PHX NEEDS to overpay to get guys, there is no other way big name guys come here, this is not the Colangelo golden years we are talking about.

 

[rocker]

With Ayton Suns will need time. More than a year for playoffs, I don't think Booker is ok with that. On the other hand you have Capela, the numbers speak for themselves and plays elite defense. Plus, he's 23 and has the best playing years ahead. You must pay for that, I guess. It can be that Capela is for the case Suns are not getting Ayton but for me it's more likely this way Booker - Jackson - Doncic - Capela plus I don't know who