I was going to write "4 for $24m on a 30 year old?" (he turns 30 in 3 days).
But he's never been a speed guy so I don't see him declining massively with age. On saying that I think I'd want more assurance I'm not getting fleeced down the back end so either a 2 year out or more like $18-$20m over 4 years.
I’ve never understood this concept. The less speed you have, the less margin for error. So if you’re effective with marginal speed the likelihood is you become worthless with even a slight drop in speed. The obsolescence of your speed would negate whatever technique you possess to make up for a complete lack of speed. Because there’s no natural law that I know of that says only fast guys lose speed when they age. They both should.
Whereas if you’re a speed guy a similar drop in speed likely reduces your effectiveness, but your speed doesn’t become a death knell. It would require you adapt to leverage more technique or smarts, which pivot would come at a good time for that . . . at the end of a lengthy career where you’ve likely picked up technical advantages.
here’s a hypothetical scenario: which do you think has a greater chance of success...
Player A comes out of college somewhat raw in technique but hella fast at 4.5 40. Puts up 10-13 sacks per year early in career based primarily on overwhelming linemen with his physical traits. Plays 8 years and his 40 time drops to 4.7.
player B comes out of college with an assortment of tricks in his bag and a “high motor” (isn’t that what we call all the successful slow guys?), but runs a 4.9 40. Puts up 10-13 sacks per year based on all kinds of tricks and tenacity. Plays 8 seasons and drops to 5.1 40 yard time.
I think player A picks up some tricks over 8 years to counter his lessening speed. Is he as effective as early? No. But he still has adequate burst to close on the QB.
I think player B becomes useless. Because he can’t count on anything to counter his lost speed. He’s already relying on his tricks and relentless approach, but no longer possesses any burst. At best he’s a clean up guy.