Gambo: Looking back: D-backs won the Upton trade with Atlanta

[Dback Jon]

The key player in the deal could be Drury — and trust me, no one who was involved in the deal knew that at the time. But Towers got this one right. He liked Drury as an athlete and he did hit .347 in rookie ball at Danville in 2011. He was coming off a bad year in the South Atlantic League in 2012 where he hit .229 and the Braves may have soured on him some. One of the D-backs’ scouts, Clay Daniel, was a big believer in Drury, loved his work ethic and thought his makeup was off the charts. Drury’s high school coach was Troy Tulowitzki’s high school coach as well.

So instead of analytics, Towers trusted a good scout’s opinion on Drury and that faith is paying off. Drury made the Diamondbacks roster this spring and has forced his way into the everyday lineup hitting .304 with six homers, nine doubles and 12 runs batted in through 31 games and 115 at-bats. He projects to hit 26 home runs this year. He is just 23.

Towers is no longer the GM here but I certainly like the cost savings, control and potential of Drury and O’Brien over the overrated and overpaid Upton.

http://arizonasports.com/story/655559/looking-back-d-backs-won-the-upton-trade-with-atlanta/

 

[DWKB]

Glad to know Gambo is still an idiot.

 

[82CardsGrad]

The key player in the deal could be Drury — and trust me, no one who was involved in the deal knew that at the time. But Towers got this one right. He liked Drury as an athlete and he did hit .347 in rookie ball at Danville in 2011. He was coming off a bad year in the South Atlantic League in 2012 where he hit .229 and the Braves may have soured on him some. One of the D-backs’ scouts, Clay Daniel, was a big believer in Drury, loved his work ethic and thought his makeup was off the charts. Drury’s high school coach was Troy Tulowitzki’s high school coach as well.

So instead of analytics, Towers trusted a good scout’s opinion on Drury and that faith is paying off. Drury made the Diamondbacks roster this spring and has forced his way into the everyday lineup hitting .304 with six homers, nine doubles and 12 runs batted in through 31 games and 115 at-bats. He projects to hit 26 home runs this year. He is just 23.

Towers is no longer the GM here but I certainly like the cost savings, control and potential of Drury and O’Brien over the overrated and overpaid Upton.

http://arizonasports.com/story/655559/looking-back-d-backs-won-the-upton-trade-with-atlanta/

Good stuff!!

 

[82CardsGrad]

Glad to know Gambo is still an idiot.

Gambo is an idiot... but not because of his comments above. In fact, his comments here actually make him less of an idiot!

 

[DWKB]

No, they are a prime example of his idiocy.

In fact, if I were to agree with Gambo, I'd question my own position. The man knows nothing about how to win baseball games. Nothing.

He's the scouts that got fired in Moneyball trying to sell jeans.

Actually he's worse, he's the jock sniffer of those scouts.

 

[82CardsGrad]

No, they are a prime example of his idiocy.

In fact, if I were to agree with Gambo, I'd question my own position. The man knows nothing about how to win baseball games. Nothing.

LOL... I agree he would know little about how to win baseball games. But man, you're consistent "mightier than thou" posture is now laughable. I mean, should we consider you to be on par with a Theo Epstein? Brian Sabean? Or a Bobby Cox? Tony LaRussa?

You allow no room for a counterpoint to your position, ever... With you, it's my way or your an idiot and know nothing... You're a crack-up man...

 

[DWKB]

LOL... I agree he would know little about how to win baseball games. But man, you're consistent "mightier than thou" posture is now laughable. I mean, should we consider you to be on par with a Theo Epstein? Brian Sabean? Or a Bobby Cox? Tony LaRussa?

You allow no room for a counterpoint to your position, ever... With you, it's my way or your an idiot and know nothing... You're a crack-up man...

I wish I were Theo Epstein.

There is a level of dissent in the world of baseball, but to make an analogy, Gambo is a flat earth believer. I should take that seriously?

 

[82CardsGrad]

I wish I were Theo Epstein.

There is a level of dissent in the world of baseball, but to make an analogy, Gambo is a flat earth believer. I should take that seriously?

Ha Ha... Yea, Gambo should never be confused as a serious, evolved thought-leader!
However, that aside, because his comments don't mesh with your hardened position, you attack him personally and allow no chance for any merit to his position. Which, particularly when it comes to baseball, is your consistent approach. Dude - you simply are not and can't be right 100% of the time. Seriously, you can't...

 

[DWKB]

Ha Ha... Yea, Gambo should never be confused as a serious, evolved thought-leader!
However, that aside, because his comments don't mesh with your hardened position, you attack him personally and allow no chance for any merit to his position. Which, particularly when it comes to baseball, is your consistent approach. Dude - you simply are not and can't be right 100% of the time. Seriously, you can't...

Gambo's analysis is flawed for many reasons already outlined. That's what happens though when you decry analytics and then try to perform analysis.

It's all "makeup" and "gut" and personal perspective and faulty logic.

The guys who utilize analytics win ball games. This is irrefutable. The guys who don't, like Towers typically don't win ball games. The numbers still say the DBacks lost that trade.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Gambo's analysis is flawed for many reasons already outlined. That's what happens though when you decry analytics and then try to perform analysis.

It's all "makeup" and "gut" and personal perspective and faulty logic.

The guys who utilize analytics win ball games. This is irrefutable. The guys who don't, like Towers typically don't win ball games. The numbers still say the DBacks lost that trade.

We'll never agree on most of what you've said there. LaRussa himself was a longtime holdout from using or depending upon analytics and he did pretty well for himself... same for Bobby Cox.
There is room for both and my view is that managers and GM's who can effective strike that balance and not overly rely on just one or the other, offers the best chance for wins & success.

 

[DWKB]

We'll never agree on most of what you've said there. LaRussa himself was a longtime holdout from using or depending upon analytics and he did pretty well for himself... same for Bobby Cox.
There is room for both and my view is that managers and GM's who can effective strike that balance and not overly rely on just one or the other, offers the best chance for wins & success.

They did do great when nobody else was using the info either.

That's not the way anymore. The world has changed.

This organization has not utilized both and neither has Gambo. The results on the field and his analysis of the organization reflect that lack of utilization.

 

[82CardsGrad]

They did do great when nobody else was using the info either.

That's not the way anymore. The world has changed.

This organization has not utilized both and neither has Gambo. The results on the field and his analysis of the organization reflect that lack of utilization.

Yea... it's changed. However, team sports still require the right mix and chemistry. I will never get on board with being totally reliant upon analytics at the expense and disregard for chemistry.
IMHO, Upton has always possessed chemistry issues. Again, he's not a cancer. But he is also not an additive with regard to leadership & chemistry. Which is why I'm totally ok with how the trade with the Braves has panned out. And I have no doubt it's one of the leading reasons as to why he didn't stick with the Braves and the Padres.

 

[DWKB]

Yea... it's changed. However, team sports still require the right mix and chemistry. I will never get on board with being totally reliant upon analytics at the expense and disregard for chemistry.
IMHO, Upton has always possessed chemistry issues. Again, he's not a cancer. But he is also not an additive with regard to leadership & chemistry. Which is why I'm totally ok with how the trade with the Braves has panned out. And I have no doubt it's one of the leading reasons as to why he didn't stick with the Braves and the Padres.

Here we get to the crux of it. If we remove any objectivity, than anyone can Rorschach the situation and sound like they know what they’re talking about. It’s the world of bull malarkey.

Are you a psychologist? Have you been in the locker room of the Diamondbacks, Braves, or Padres? Has someone who had been in there told you of specific instances? If the answer to these questions is “no”, then you’ve really got no room to talk. That you then use phrases like “I have no doubt” is the “mightier than thou” posture. We have to accept 82CardsGrad as an expert here in spite of any other evidence because, well because he says so.

You try to go to any professional sports organization and tell them your advice is to trade player A because of chemistry issues without setting foot inside the club house and they’d laugh you out of the building.

On top of this complete lack of expertise and objective evidence, the anecdotal evidence doesn’t corroborate with your conclusion. Detroit interviewed Upton and interviewed his former Diamondbacks manager and Bench coach. The coached only had good things to say regarding Upton and the GM and Tigers manager were nothing but impressed.

Lastly, if we consider, despite what his managers and former players have said about him, that he was a chemistry problem and that led team performance issues, the actual results contradict that conclusion. The three years before the Upton trade the team averaged 80 wins a season with a high of 94. The three years after the Upton trade when he was still on his original contract the team averaged 74.6 wins a season with a high of 81.

There is simply no route that you can conclude what you have. The only outlet is “I don’t like him”, which is fine as a fan, but is idiocy as a way to evaluate production, talent, or value in the sport of baseball. The two shouldn’t be confused, but they often are. I know I'm not going to change your mind, because it's not your mind you're using to take this stance.

I do have to wonder though, how much does it bother you that the most successful team we've put on the field in the last 13 years was led by the two players you dislike the most? That must really suck as a fan...

 

[GatorAZ]

Justin Upton was a 2-time all star for the D'Backs and led them to the playoffs. He was pretty good in the 3 years afterwords where he still would've been under contract. Realizing now that Drury is all we have to show for it I would've rather kept him and see what happened. If Drury can reach 3-4 WAR consistently this trade could look less worse. Gambo has good sources but his opinions are highly flawed.

 

[BC867]

Justin Upton was a 2-time all star for the D'Backs and led them to the playoffs. He was pretty good in the 3 years afterwords where he still would've been under contract. Realizing now that Drury is all we have to show for it I would've rather kept him and see what happened. If Drury can reach 3-4 WAR consistently this trade could look less worse. Gambo has good sources but his opinions are highly flawed.

There was more to the equation to that. The D-backs promoted Upton as the face of the organization -- UPTOwN. And he didn't live up to it.

In the final analysis, he had to go and get a fresh start somewhere else. And the D-backs had to find someone else and that turned out to be Goldy, constantly an MVP runner-up.

It is the old story that it is better to move someone to another team rather than demote them in their capacity.

 

[GatorAZ]

There was more to the equation to that. The D-backs promoted Upton as the face of the organization -- UPTOwN. And he didn't live up to it.

In the final analysis, he had to go and get a fresh start somewhere else. And the D-backs had to find someone else and that turned out to be Goldy, constantly an MVP runner-up.

It is the old story that it is better to move someone to another team rather than demote them in their capacity.

If they traded him because he didn't live up to "Up Town" that makes it look even worse. You don't trade good young talent on a team friendly contract b/c you're marketing slogan didn't work out. Thank God KT is gone (not that DS is much better).

 

[BC867]

If they traded him because he didn't live up to "Up Town" that makes it look even worse. You don't trade good young talent on a team friendly contract b/c you're marketing slogan didn't work out. Thank God KT is gone (not that DS is much better).

It was not about something as frivolous as a marketing slogan.

It was about the young man who saw his team put their eggs in his basket and it didn't work out.

You trade a good young talent on a team friendly contract to give him and the team fresh starts versus stubbornly sticking to a plan that failed. Namely, making that young talent the face of the organization.

Teams enter into trades like that all the time. It is about people carrying out their day-to-day, year-to-year responsibilities. If it turns negative or disappointing, management tries to make it positive, even if they caused it.

 

[DWKB]

It was not about something as frivolous as a marketing slogan.

It was about the young man who saw his team put their eggs in his basket and it didn't work out.

You trade a good young talent on a team friendly contract to give him and the team fresh starts versus stubbornly sticking to a plan that failed. Namely, making that young talent the face of the organization.

Teams enter into trades like that all the time. It is about people carrying out their day-to-day, year-to-year responsibilities. If it turns negative or disappointing, management tries to make it positive, even if they caused it.

Can you give an example of another organization doing this?

 

[Phrazbit]

This is all so stupid, rehashed and requires ridiculous amounts of cherry picking. To say the Upton trade was a good deal requires either ignoring or admiring the Ross deal, the Trumbo trade and (most absurdly) the last 3 seasons the franchise has put forth. I like Drury but no rational person could say he was worth all that.

 

[GatorAZ]

It was not about something as frivolous as a marketing slogan.

It was about the young man who saw his team put their eggs in his basket and it didn't work out.

You trade a good young talent on a team friendly contract to give him and the team fresh starts versus stubbornly sticking to a plan that failed. Namely, making that young talent the face of the organization.

Teams enter into trades like that all the time. It is about people carrying out their day-to-day, year-to-year responsibilities. If it turns negative or disappointing, management tries to make it positive, even if they caused it.

How did the team put all their eggs in one basket? By putting a sign in RF? Going all in on a guy is giving him $206M. Upton was traded because he wasn't "gritty" enough for the GM who is currently unemployed.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Here we get to the crux of it. If we remove any objectivity, than anyone can Rorschach the situation and sound like they know what they’re talking about. It’s the world of bull malarkey.

Are you a psychologist? Have you been in the locker room of the Diamondbacks, Braves, or Padres? Has someone who had been in there told you of specific instances? If the answer to these questions is “no”, then you’ve really got no room to talk. That you then use phrases like “I have no doubt” is the “mightier than thou” posture. We have to accept 82CardsGrad as an expert here in spite of any other evidence because, well because he says so.

No... Not a Psych and have never been inside a MLB locker room. Also, I have not claimed my opinion to be more valuable/credible than anyone else's. Unlike you. I offer my opinion on a message board. An opinion that is merely based upon what I see and hear, along with my own experience in the game that spans little league, thru college and 3 years of semi-pro league... Doesn't mean I'm spot on in this case, but nor does your experiences mean you are either.

On top of this complete lack of expertise and objective evidence, the anecdotal evidence doesn’t corroborate with your conclusion. Detroit interviewed Upton and interviewed his former Diamondbacks manager and Bench coach. The coached only had good things to say regarding Upton and the GM and Tigers manager were nothing but impressed.

And yet, the Dbacks, Braves and Padres chose to part ways with him...

Lastly, if we consider, despite what his managers and former players have said about him, that he was a chemistry problem and that led team performance issues, the actual results contradict that conclusion. The three years before the Upton trade the team averaged 80 wins a season with a high of 94. The three years after the Upton trade when he was still on his original contract the team averaged 74.6 wins a season with a high of 81.

I would think you of all people would see the folly in attempting to isolate a specific trade and then correlate subsequent wins & losses, given the number of other variables that can and often do come into play - such as other players involved, injuries, coaching changes, etc... Further and IMHO, I am not convinced the Dbacks unloaded Upton with the specific expectation of an immediate uptick in wins...

here is simply no route that you can conclude what you have. The only outlet is “I don’t like him”, which is fine as a fan, but is idiocy as a way to evaluate production, talent, or value in the sport of baseball. The two shouldn’t be confused, but they often are. I know I'm not going to change your mind, because it's not your mind you're using to take this stance.

I do have to wonder though, how much does it bother you that the most successful team we've put on the field in the last 13 years was led by the two players you dislike the most? That must really suck as a fan...

Nope... Have never said I don't like Upton. I think it's a major disappointment that he has not and likely will never reach his immense potential... And I do believe his personality is simply not conducive to good, productive chemistry within a team. Doesn't mean he's evil or a cancer. He's not. He doesn't get into trouble off the field either. He's just who he is and IMHO, that doesn't appear to be a person who creates solid chemistry within a team...

 

[Phrazbit]

I would think you of all people would see the folly in attempting to isolate a specific trade and then correlate subsequent wins & losses, given the number of other variables that can and often do come into play - such as other players involved, injuries, coaching changes, etc... Further and IMHO, I am not convinced the Dbacks unloaded Upton with the specific expectation of an immediate uptick in wins...

Oh come on... are you REALLY trying to pretend that the Dbacks target in that trade was not Prado? They trade for a 30 year old (and give him a big extension) and it was not a trade about "winning now"? That team was dumping young players left and right and gobbling up old guys in their place. In fact, their exact terminology for why they got Prado and Ross is that those guys were "winners".

IMO that is the absolute least plausible excuse for the trade. The Towers regime was consistently not shy about how they were doing virtually every move for the "NOW" aspect. There were direct quotes about it, Towers even saying stuff about how as a GM you can't count on being around in a few years. Any idea that the trade was a move based on the long term is absolute rubbish.

Nope... Have never said I don't like Upton. I think it's a major disappointment that he has not and likely will never reach his immense potential... And I do believe his personality is simply not conducive to good, productive chemistry within a team. Doesn't mean he's evil or a cancer. He's not. He doesn't get into trouble off the field either. He's just who he is and IMHO, that doesn't appear to be a person who creates solid chemistry within a team...

You basically defined "cancer" when it comes to the sports world.

There was no problem with him an chemistry and there was never any evidence of a problem in any way whatsoever. The Dbacks with him, "Tat-man", Reynolds... those guys had fantastic chemistry, they all seemed to get along great (and somehow won quite a bit). He has been liked everywhere else he has played, he was liked here, the only evidence of him not being good for chemistry is some whispers by a group of people who threw virtually everyone under the bus whom they parted with.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Oh come on... are you REALLY trying to pretend that the Dbacks target in that trade was not Prado? They trade for a 30 year old (and give him a big extension) and it was not a trade about "winning now"? That team was dumping young players left and right and gobbling up old guys in their place. In fact, their exact terminology for why they got Prado and Ross is that those guys were "winners".

IMO that is the absolute least plausible excuse for the trade. The Towers regime was consistently not shy about how they were doing virtually every move for the "NOW" aspect. There were direct quotes about it, Towers even saying stuff about how as a GM you can't count on being around in a few years. Any idea that the trade was a move based on the long term is absolute rubbish.

I think the idea behind the trade was to unload Upton... period. Prado was the best KT could grab in return. As it turned out, and perhaps KT knew this, the other pieces tossed in with Prado proved to be far more valuable than Prado.

You basically defined "cancer" when it comes to the sports world.

There was no problem with him an chemistry and there was never any evidence of a problem in any way whatsoever. The Dbacks with him, "Tat-man", Reynolds... those guys had fantastic chemistry, they all seemed to get along great (and somehow won quite a bit). He has been liked everywhere else he has played, he was liked here, the only evidence of him not being good for chemistry is some whispers by a group of people who threw virtually everyone under the bus whom they parted with.

Ok... But I find it strange that you seem so certain about Upton likability and yet you too have never been inside a clubhouse. I as well have never been inside the clubhouse but my claim that Upton's personality is not conducive to solid chemistry is somehow less accurate... Ok...

 

[Phrazbit]

I think the idea behind the trade was to unload Upton... period. Prado was the best KT could grab in return. As it turned out, and perhaps KT knew this, the other pieces tossed in with Prado proved to be far more valuable than Prado.

A ham sandwich was more valuable than Prado was to us, you're setting a very low bar... like... below the ground low. And if the primary logic behind the trade was simply to get rid of Upton then it only looks more idiotic. And if you want to continue to play out this fantasy that KT was playing some sort of "long term" thinking (despite the KT himself scoffed at the notion) then you must reconcile the moves surrounding the trade and after it. I know you keep ignoring that point... because those moves are impossible to reconcile, they were really really stupid, just like the Upton trade was really really stupid and the ONLY people who support it are the ones who have made it perfectly clear that they just didn't like him.

Oh, and seeing as the Braves offered Julio Teheran and KT rejected them, you're giving him WAY too much credit to think he could see through the mist about a project 3 years from contributing.

Ok... But I find it strange that you seem so certain about Upton likability and yet you too have never been inside a clubhouse. I as well have never been inside the clubhouse but my claim that Upton's personality is not conducive to solid chemistry is somehow less accurate... Ok...

I'm not basing this on my assessment, I'm basing it on the players and coaches who have worked with him. There has NEVER been a report that he is a problem other than some of our front office people throwing him under the bus at the time of the trade and they did this to EVERYONE they traded. Basically you're saying that your claim is more valid than pretty much everyone who has gone on record about the guy outside of like one or 2 people in our organization with an axe to grind.

 

[82CardsGrad]

A ham sandwich was more valuable than Prado was to us, you're setting a very low bar... like... below the ground low. And if the primary logic behind the trade was simply to get rid of Upton then it only looks more idiotic. And if you want to continue to play out this fantasy that KT was playing some sort of "long term" thinking (despite the KT himself scoffed at the notion) then you must reconcile the moves surrounding the trade and after it. I know you keep ignoring that point... because those moves are impossible to reconcile, they were really really stupid, just like the Upton trade was really really stupid and the ONLY people who support it are the ones who have made it perfectly clear that they just didn't like him.

Oh, and seeing as the Braves offered Julio Teheran and KT rejected them, you're giving him WAY too much credit to think he could see through the mist about a project 3 years from contributing.

I'm not addressing KT's ability as a GM. I'm merely addressing Upton and this trade, period. And IMHO, this trade was strictly about getting rid of Upton. And now, 3 years later, the trade looks a heckuva lot better.
The moves KT made after this trade were largely horrific and pure desperation. But again, with sole regard to Upton and this trade, I'm more than cool with how it has shaken out...

I'm not basing this on my assessment, I'm basing it on the players and coaches who have worked with him. There has NEVER been a report that he is a problem other than some of our front office people throwing him under the bus at the time of the trade and they did this to EVERYONE they traded. Basically you're saying that your claim is more valid than pretty much everyone who has gone on record about the guy outside of like one or 2 people in our organization with an axe to grind.

And yet, in less than 10 years in the league, he's now played on 4 teams... I just don't see how that meshes with a great team chemistry guy.
I am not saying my claim is "more valid". It's simply my opinion. You have yours... And we come together here on a message board to express and back-up our respective positions - knowing NONE of us have any more credible evidence or access to information over someone else... So you don't have to accept my opinion, and I don't have to accept yours. We've made our respective cases. I will continue to see it my way. Carry on...