Gandhi mock draft

[Stout]

Every scout wants the perfect player. Perfect height, weight, speed, strength. They want a choir boy who is also a dog. They want the player to be young but also have multiple years of experience. They want a prospect to do everything in the draft process but also make smart decisions about their body and the risks they take.

This leaves people in the draft process to choose between two lines of thinking. You can focus on what a player can't do, or you can focus on what a player can do. You can focus on the strengths or you can focus on the weaknesses.

So, when it comes to Stewart, you can focus on his positive traits or you can focus on the fact that his final two seasons produced 3.5 less sacks than Micah Parson's final two seasons.

Now that is just a lazy argument. How many thousands of players drafted with low numbers failed versus the cherry picked few you are producing? You are directly linking him to Micah Parsons here. Unless you are saying he is the exact equivalent, this holds no water. "You can be negative or you can know he's a star!" is not a serious argument.

 

[Gandhi]

Travon Walker is probably the comp for Shemar Stewart. The production difference is 9.5 sacks over 3 seasons vs 4.5. Same amount of combined tackles, and Stewart had 1 less TFL. Walker went #1 and we are talking about Stewart being an option at #16.

Also remember that in their last year in college Stewart had a significantly higher pass rush win rate (Stewart 13.2% - Walker 7.4%).

 

[Gandhi]

Round 2

This was an easy pick for me, and I traded up to make it. I tried to talk to some different teams, and in the end, I made a deal with Dallas. They got mine #47 and I got their #44. Further we swopped pick in the fifth round, so they got mine #152, while I moved down to their #171 spot.

I think that the prize was a little steep, but on the other hand I did not have to lose any picks, and I got the guy I wanted.

Oh, and it turns out that the Falcons at #46 had two trade offers, but both buyers withdraw their offer when I moved up for Jackson, so I would not have gotten him with my original pick.

My options, when I didn’t know that the trade would happen:

Alfred Collins, defensive tackle, Texas

In January I noted in my rankings that DT Tyleik Williams from Ohio State was the best scheme fit of all players in this draft, but I was wrong, because Collins is at least as good, if not better. As I wrote in my mock draft last year, with the Cards’ second first-round pick I considered drafting DT T’Vondre Sweat from Texas, and Collins actually replaced Sweat in that specific role in Texas’ defense. He is a monstrous nose tackle who also has some pass rush to his game. However, like with Sweat last year, it is difficult for me to justify taking a nose tackle in the first two rounds considering what they do in Gannon’s scheme (Kenneth Grant would be the exception because of his wild potential).

Aireontae Ersery, offensive tackle, Minnesota

After multiple years in Minnesota’s outside zone system, I think he would be a good fit at guard, with the option of moving him to tackle if need be.

Trey Amos, cornerback, Ole Miss

He is a Gannon-CB with his size, aggressive mentality, first-class press-man abilities, and good zone coverage. However, you also need to develop the young guys you drafted last year. It doesn’t mean I will definitely not draft a CB later, but not this early (unless it is an absolute stud).

With the #44 pick the Arizona Cardinals select

Offensive guard Donovan Jackson, Ohio State

When the first round ended, and Jackson was still on the board, I started considering option to get him. He is the #23 ranked on the overall board, but #6 on the Cards board. I would not be shocked if Ossenfort selected him at #16, and I could easily see him being the pick if they traded down.

We all know the history with Jackson, Paris Johnson and Justin Frye, and I think it could be a great left side for many years. Jackson fit in pretty much any offensive line-scheme, so that is also not a problem. Actually, there is no such thing as a safe draft pick, but it’s hard to see this go wrong.

 

[oaken1]

I mean, one is an NFL player and the other isn't yet, so it is inarguable that you are wrong in this statement

I will also quibble with your reasonable floor comment for a 1st-round edge player. It is hoped and believed, but it is not factual. His floor could easily be Zaven Collins.

True.
However, many first rounders don't even have a floor that high...so said floor would make him a reasonable pick with massive upside possibility....
Of course...if he only hits his floor he ain't gonna help the team...but you draft kinda hoping you can coach a guy to his ceiling..and the floor is a safety net...
But I still prefer Pearce.

 

[Stout]

True.
However, many first rounders don't even have a floor that high...so said floor would make him a reasonable pick with massive upside possibility....
Of course...if he only hits his floor he ain't gonna help the team...but you draft kinda hoping you can coach a guy to his ceiling..and the floor is a safety net...
But I still prefer Pearce.

Of course you draft hoping you can coach 'em up. What it all boils down to is preference, nothing more, as any of us could be wrong. I absolutely loathe the idea of taking the workout warrior who didn't do it in college. That's where I'm coming from. Blot out the combine and people would be outraged if we drafted him at 16. Now, because of non-football stuff after the season (which isn't useless by any stretch, but also isn't anything definitive), he's a top 10 pick? No thanks.

 

[Chopper0080]

I mean, one is an NFL player and the other isn't yet, so it is inarguable that you are wrong in this statement

I will also quibble with your reasonable floor comment for a 1st-round edge player. It is hoped and believed, but it is not factual. His floor could easily be Zaven Collins.

A couple thoughts on this.

1 - Zaven Collins was drafted to be an ILB due to his history playing off-ball in a 3-3 defense. Very different skill set and focus drafting for the ILB position vs an EDGE position. Inarguable.

2 - By your rationale Abdul Carter's floor could be Zaven Collins which is why it is bad argument. If your entire focus is that people don't know what each player is going to be in the NFL because the NFL is different than college, well why are you participating in a draft convo? The entire thing is based upon projecting specific skills or traits into specific NFL roles.

3 - Your quibble is just wanting to argue. Now I can't know the minds of NFL GMs, but I can tell you that it is reasonable to believe when it comes to pass rushers in the first round, they are drafting them to be one of the top 35 in the NFL. 8-10 sacks is the floor for that. Maybe you want to argue that a GM drafts a pass rusher in hopes of a 5 sack per year player, but I feel that is ridiculous.

 

[Chopper0080]

Of course you draft hoping you can coach 'em up. What it all boils down to is preference, nothing more, as any of us could be wrong. I absolutely loathe the idea of taking the workout warrior who didn't do it in college. That's where I'm coming from. Blot out the combine and people would be outraged if we drafted him at 16. Now, because of non-football stuff after the season (which isn't useless by any stretch, but also isn't anything definitive), he's a top 10 pick? No thanks.

Micah Parson was a workout warrior who didn't do it in college.

Travon Walker was a workout warrior who didn't do it in college.

Javon Solomon was a sack machine in college, 5th round pick.

Isaiah Foskey had two 11 sack seasons in college, he hasn't gotten 1 sack in two seasons in the NFL.

This is why you can't just focus on college production when projecting players into the NFL. Traits matter more in the NFL than they do in college. Ideally you want to see both but that is rare.

TJ Watt went 30th because he was a 1 year wonder. That looks pretty dumb now. But if you looked at his traits, he was strong, long arms, and nice burst off the edge. Had a good motor. Those all are signs of success for an EDGE player.

So when I say, Shemar Stewart has a better pass rush skill set than Zaven Collins it is because of traits that show up in his games which is reinforced by his workouts.

If you are of the mind that "workout warriors" bust a bunch in the NFL then it should not be tough to find examples that prove your stance. What I think you will find is that Mike Mamula and Tony Mandrich were 30 years ago and it is less of an issue in today's day and age.

 

[Stout]

A couple thoughts on this.

1 - Zaven Collins was drafted to be an ILB due to his history playing off-ball in a 3-3 defense. Very different skill set and focus drafting for the ILB position vs an EDGE position. Inarguable.

2 - By your rationale Abdul Carter's floor could be Zaven Collins which is why it is bad argument. If your entire focus is that people don't know what each player is going to be in the NFL because the NFL is different than college, well why are you participating in a draft convo? The entire thing is based upon projecting specific skills or traits into specific NFL roles.

3 - Your quibble is just wanting to argue. Now I can't know the minds of NFL GMs, but I can tell you that it is reasonable to believe when it comes to pass rushers in the first round, they are drafting them to be one of the top 35 in the NFL. 8-10 sacks is the floor for that. Maybe you want to argue that a GM drafts a pass rusher in hopes of a 5 sack per year player, but I feel that is ridiculous.

1--What Zaven was drafted to be doesn't matter. I am comparing Stewart's floor to what Zaven is now as a player. Clearly.

2--I mean, anyone can bust out. I'm confident Abdul Carter will star, but he could bust. We don't know. That said, he has showed a lot and is a top pick for a reason.

3--Are you just mad that I simply won't accept that Stewart's floor is 8-10 sacks a season? That I won't let you be right? Clearly his floor is 100 percent bust and way worse than Collins, because anyone can bust. To be fair, I'm not setting that as his floor. I'm setting as his floor the guy that can sniff out a few sacks a season and set the edge against the run. That is way, way more reasonable than saying the floor is 8-10 sacks a season for a guy who never did it in college. I mean, give me a break here. I think you're just arguing to argue. My god.

Bottom line, you love the kid and think he's god's gift. I clearly have no desire to risk it and think the kid is a postseason workout warrior, and never the two opinions shall agree. Can we just, you know, agree to disagree on the prospect?

 

[Chopper0080]

1--What Zaven was drafted to be doesn't matter. I am comparing Stewart's floor to what Zaven is now as a player. Clearly.

2--I mean, anyone can bust out. I'm confident Abdul Carter will star, but he could bust. We don't know. That said, he has showed a lot and is a top pick for a reason.

3--Are you just mad that I simply won't accept that Stewart's floor is 8-10 sacks a season? That I won't let you be right? Clearly his floor is 100 percent bust and way worse than Collins, because anyone can bust. To be fair, I'm not setting that as his floor. I'm setting as his floor the guy that can sniff out a few sacks a season and set the edge against the run. That is way, way more reasonable than saying the floor is 8-10 sacks a season for a guy who never did it in college. I mean, give me a break here. I think you're just arguing to argue. My god.

Bottom line, you love the kid and think he's god's gift. I clearly have no desire to risk it and think the kid is a postseason workout warrior, and never the two opinions shall agree. Can we just, you know, agree to disagree on the prospect?

Where have I said he is god's gift or anything close to that level of hyperbole?

The issue I have is that you are like the Raiders fan who is arguing like he is is an expert on the Cardinals. Your "workout warrior" take is uninformed. Daniel Jeremiah had him as his 27th ranked prospect in Jan. Before the combine and with his limited college sack totals. So he is not a prospect who has risen out of nowhere. He was in the convo for the Cardinals at 16 in Jan, and he is still in the convo for the Cardinals at 16 in March. The combine workout that you are so latched on to did not change anything. It just reinforced what was already present on tape. I have watched his games. I don't believe you have which is fine but it shows in your argument.

With the Zaven Collins comp. Again, another glaring example of a lack of information on your part. I watched some of Zaven's games prior to the draft just like I have with Stewart. When I am telling you he is more advanced in his pass rush than Zaven was, it is because I actually know what I am talking about. Zaven never demonstrated much ability as a pass rusher in college. That's not why he was taken in round 1 and why he wasn't drafted to be an EDGE rusher. Stewart is different. He has significantly more experience playing a pass rush role, and it shows with his technique which is superior to Zaven's when he came out.

Your argument on this is akin to the arguments people on here make that Kyler is a top 10 QB. Yes, Shemar Stewart has one glaring area he needs to improve on just like Kyler has one difference making trait that makes him special at times. The issue is that focusing on that one thing is limiting your ability to see the whole picture of the player.

 

[Krangodnzr]

@Gandhi I would have taken the trade for sure because if you are choosing between three players adding another third rounder to move down and get one of the three is an absolute slam dunk.

 

[gimpy]

1--What Zaven was drafted to be doesn't matter. I am comparing Stewart's floor to what Zaven is now as a player. Clearly.

2--I mean, anyone can bust out. I'm confident Abdul Carter will star, but he could bust. We don't know. That said, he has showed a lot and is a top pick for a reason.

3--Are you just mad that I simply won't accept that Stewart's floor is 8-10 sacks a season? That I won't let you be right? Clearly his floor is 100 percent bust and way worse than Collins, because anyone can bust. To be fair, I'm not setting that as his floor. I'm setting as his floor the guy that can sniff out a few sacks a season and set the edge against the run. That is way, way more reasonable than saying the floor is 8-10 sacks a season for a guy who never did it in college. I mean, give me a break here. I think you're just arguing to argue. My god.

Bottom line, you love the kid and think he's god's gift. I clearly have no desire to risk it and think the kid is a postseason workout warrior, and never the two opinions shall agree. Can we just, you know, agree to disagree on the prospect?

Takes two to argue.

 

[BACH]

So when I say, Shemar Stewart has a better pass rush skill set than Zaven Collins it is because of traits that show up in his games which is reinforced by his workouts.

If you are of the mind that "workout warriors" bust a bunch in the NFL then it should not be tough to find examples that prove your stance. What I think you will find is that Mike Mamula and Tony Mandrich were 30 years ago and it is less of an issue in today's day and age.

It's easy to find players today. Travon Walker and Tyree Wilson as examples.

I do however agree with your point. Check the Mic podcast basicly spend 1 hour discussing this. For Stewart is pretty simple IMO - based on their discussion.

You have a solid Edge that has shown play on the field worthy to be drafted in the 35 range. The same player's workout metrics shows metrics worthy of being drafted #1 overall. So it all comes down to how much you are willing to pay for the chance that he could develop into #1 overall output vs. a player drafted in the early 2nd.

Their comp is Rousseau, who was drafted 30th overall. Last season pff had him as the 15th best Edge overall and 19th best pure pass-rusher in the league. I do not have a huge problem to draft that at #16 if the potential is a top 3 pass-rusher in the NFL.

I would personally prefer DT or OL at 16, but it's not going to upset me if Stewart is the pick.

 

[Chopper0080]

It's easy to find players today. Travon Walker and Tyree Wilson as examples.

I do however agree with your point. Check the Mic podcast basicly spend 1 hour discussing this. For Stewart is pretty simple IMO - based on their discussion.

You have a solid Edge that has shown play on the field worthy to be drafted in the 35 range. The same player's workout metrics shows metrics worthy of being drafted #1 overall. So it all comes down to how much you are willing to pay for the chance that he could develop into #1 overall output vs. a player drafted in the early 2nd.

Their comp is Rousseau, who was drafted 30th overall. Last season pff had him as the 15th best Edge overall and 19th best pure pass-rusher in the league. I do not have a huge problem to draft that at #16 if the potential is a top 3 pass-rusher in the NFL.

I would personally prefer DT or OL at 16, but it's not going to upset me if Stewart is the pick.

I don't think Tyree Wilson did the combine so I don't know how he would be a workout warrior other than just being a large human. Travon was elevated by a crazy combine but I think he is more disappointing because he went 1 over Hutch than a bust player.

The rest of what you say is a reasoned take. How comfortable people are with him at 16 is more about how they group prospects. He is a second tier player IMO which is fine for 16 because the first tier is small.

 

[GatorAZ]

Before free agency, I was very worried that we'd take Stewart given his lack of actual sack production on the field. After free agency, especially with adding Sweat/Tomlinson, we don't have such a glaring hole where I would be upset taking a gamble on the potential upside of Stewart.

.
Adding two steady DL’s in FA shouldn’t affect our draft strategy at all. Shemar would be an arrogant selection which I kinda dig. You’re betting on your coaching and development meeting his shirt & shorts testing numbers. If it works you’re looking at a poor man’s Myles Garrett.

 

[Stout]

Where have I said he is god's gift or anything close to that level of hyperbole?

The issue I have is that you are like the Raiders fan who is arguing like he is is an expert on the Cardinals. Your "workout warrior" take is uninformed. Daniel Jeremiah had him as his 27th ranked prospect in Jan. Before the combine and with his limited college sack totals. So he is not a prospect who has risen out of nowhere. He was in the convo for the Cardinals at 16 in Jan, and he is still in the convo for the Cardinals at 16 in March. The combine workout that you are so latched on to did not change anything. It just reinforced what was already present on tape. I have watched his games. I don't believe you have which is fine but it shows in your argument.

With the Zaven Collins comp. Again, another glaring example of a lack of information on your part. I watched some of Zaven's games prior to the draft just like I have with Stewart. When I am telling you he is more advanced in his pass rush than Zaven was, it is because I actually know what I am talking about. Zaven never demonstrated much ability as a pass rusher in college. That's not why he was taken in round 1 and why he wasn't drafted to be an EDGE rusher. Stewart is different. He has significantly more experience playing a pass rush role, and it shows with his technique which is superior to Zaven's when he came out.

Your argument on this is akin to the arguments people on here make that Kyler is a top 10 QB. Yes, Shemar Stewart has one glaring area he needs to improve on just like Kyler has one difference making trait that makes him special at times. The issue is that focusing on that one thing is limiting your ability to see the whole picture of the player.

All irrelevant. My simple argument is that his floor is not 8-10 sacks a season. You have continually stated that as his floor as if it is factual. You are PROJECTING that as his floor. That's fine. You think that's the floor, I don't. We can disagree on it. You can continue to throw around the "I'm better/smarter than you" rhetoric, but it makes no difference. 8-10 sacks as a floor is a mere projection.

 

[Harry]

Micah Parson was a workout warrior who didn't do it in college.

Travon Walker was a workout warrior who didn't do it in college.

Javon Solomon was a sack machine in college, 5th round pick.

Isaiah Foskey had two 11 sack seasons in college, he hasn't gotten 1 sack in two seasons in the NFL.

This is why you can't just focus on college production when projecting players into the NFL. Traits matter more in the NFL than they do in college. Ideally you want to see both but that is rare.

TJ Watt went 30th because he was a 1 year wonder. That looks pretty dumb now. But if you looked at his traits, he was strong, long arms, and nice burst off the edge. Had a good motor. Those all are signs of success for an EDGE player.

So when I say, Shemar Stewart has a better pass rush skill set than Zaven Collins it is because of traits that show up in his games which is reinforced by his workouts.

If you are of the mind that "workout warriors" bust a bunch in the NFL then it should not be tough to find examples that prove your stance. What I think you will find is that Mike Mamula and Tony Mandrich were 30 years ago and it is less of an issue in today's day and age.

I expect Stewart to be a better rusher than Collins if he’s tasked to do that. That said, I could give you a long list of workout warriors who failed.

 

[Chopper0080]

I expect Stewart to be a better rusher than Collins if he’s tasked to do that. That said, I could give you a long list of workout warriors who failed.

If we are talking about guys who have recently elevated their draft stock based on the combine, I am curious of a few recent examples. Not that I am questioning, just I can't think of any huge one sin recent years.

 

[Chopper0080]

All irrelevant. My simple argument is that his floor is not 8-10 sacks a season. You have continually stated that as his floor as if it is factual. You are PROJECTING that as his floor. That's fine. You think that's the floor, I don't. We can disagree on it. You can continue to throw around the "I'm better/smarter than you" rhetoric, but it makes no difference. 8-10 sacks as a floor is a mere projection.

It's that I follow prospects and the draft year round and have for 20+ years. Not many people find it interesting enough that they do the same. So I do know more.

Regarding the floor convo, why would you take a pass rusher in the 1st round if you didn't think his floor was 8 sacks?

 

[Harry]

If we are talking about guys who have recently elevated their draft stock based on the combine, I am curious of a few recent examples. Not that I am questioning, just I can't think of any huge one sin recent years.

Here’s a few historically prominent. It would take time to actually research but I’ll try to get to it.

10 NFL scouting combine stars who went on to be busts

As NFL teams and fans alike make conclusions based off combine workouts, keep in mind that not every standout in drills will thrive in games.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Stout]

It's that I follow prospects and the draft year round and have for 20+ years. Not many people find it interesting enough that they do the same. So I do know more.

Regarding the floor convo, why would you take a pass rusher in the 1st round if you didn't think his floor was 8 sacks?

I would not. Thus, I would not draft Stewart.

 

[Harry]

If we are talking about guys who have recently elevated their draft stock based on the combine, I am curious of a few recent examples. Not that I am questioning, just I can't think of any huge one sin recent years.

One of my guys suggested N’Keal Harry

 

[Gandhi]

@Gandhi I would have taken the trade for sure because if you are choosing between three players adding another third rounder to move down and get one of the three is an absolute slam dunk.

Absolutely, but I was trading up. It was before the trade happened - and I did not think I could get Jackson - that I was considering those other three.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Absolutely, but I was trading up. It was before the trade happened - and I did not think I could get Jackson - that I was considering those other three.

I'm talking about the part where you said the Broncos were offering #20, a third round, and a day three pick. If you have to consider who you're taking you absolutely make that trade. A third round pick can be an immediate good starter.

 

[GatorAZ]

Yea, teams will definitely like him way more than Scourton at least. The way UGA plays their defense doesn’t really showcase individual abilities. They’re super assignment-heavy.

No Georgia player has had double-digit sacks since Kirby got there in 2016. Even as DC at Bama Jonathon Allen had the most with 12.5 one year. My concern with Mykel is he looks slow off the snap.

 

[Chopper0080]

Here’s a few historically prominent. It would take time to actually research but I’ll try to get to it.

10 NFL scouting combine stars who went on to be busts

As NFL teams and fans alike make conclusions based off combine workouts, keep in mind that not every standout in drills will thrive in games.

www.usatoday.com

Meh. Only one player since 2011. That was Stephen Hill who went in the 2nd round. Just doesn’t happen like it used to. Scouting is too advanced.