Geno Smith: Reach or no reach?

[Chopper0080]

He's maybe a tiny reach, but one that has to be made. I am absolutely terrified of any QB in this draft not named Smith or Barkley. (Maybe Tyler Wilson. Maybe.)

Like it or not, this guy is going to grade out as the top QB on the board, and therefore will not slip into the 20s where it is possible for a team to move up from the second without signficant ammunition. If we want the top QB on the board, we have to pull the trigger at #7. His talent may not be 100% commensurate to that spot, but it's awfully close.

I hear the argument a lot that we should wait until the second round to pick a QB, or move up from the second to pick a guy... if we make that high of a commitment either way, we're not going to be drafting a QB in the first round next year anyways. Are people really ready to ride and die with Glennon/Nassib/EJ Manuel for the next 2-3 years? I'm sure not.

Why would drafting a QB in round 2 prevent you from taking one in the 2014 draft if you thought a better one was available? The Seahawks signed Matt Flynn to be their starter yet still drafted Russell Wilson. The 49ers had Alex Smith and still drafted Kaepernick. Broncos signed Jake Plummer yet still drafted Jay Cutler. The Redskins drafted RGIII and still drafted Kirk Cousins. The idea is to give yourself the most chances to have top 15 production from the QB position. If you take a QB in round 2 in 2013 and then a QB in round 1 in 2014, the 2nd worst scenario is that just one pans out. The money is just not that restrictive anymore.

 

[crisper57]

and we already have had at least three "miss the wide open receiver running down the field" QB as well. Why draft another at #7?

I'm hoping we don't draft any QB at 7. Suck for Johnny Football, 2014!!!

 

[john h]

Since Geno Smith has regularly been named as the likely Cards pick at 7, I have noticed something. Almost all the mocks have a consistent theme with the top 10-15 overall ranked players filling out the top of the draft. For example, Chance Warmack may be #3 on some sites but as low as #13 on others but still a solid top 10 prospect overall. The one exception is Geno Smith. I looked at numerous different, what I consider reputable, draft sites to gauge where Smith fell in the overall rankings and there is almost zero consensus as to where he rates. The one thing to be concluded, unless your Gil Brandt, he is overwhelmingly not considered a top 10 prospect, much less a top 7.

Walterfootball = 35
National Football Post = 49
CBS Draft = 8
Kiper and McShay = both outside top 20
Great Blue Draft = 16
Draft Tek = 17
Draft Countdown = 13
Draftgeek = 37
New Nfl Draft = 13
Gil Brandt = 4
Bucky Brooks(NFLN) = 8
KFFL = Don't have exact rating but says barely 1st round talent
FFToolbox = 10
Draft Ace = 56

However, he is almost universally considered the #1 QB prospect.

There is no way he falls out of first round and more than likely in top 10. The teams look at these QBs very differently than fans and the talking heads. One or more of these QBs probably look very good to some team. Could we have drafted Wilson or Keppernick last year?????? Of course we made that great deal for Kolb when we could have got a much better rookie, not given away a starter and a 2nd round pick and not have paid out millions of dollars. Hind sight it always 20/20 I know but these guys who make these decisions make millions of dollars. I do not know who to blame it on so I will pick Graves as he carried the title of the man who would have done all this. We have all said it over and over but for one last time we really have/had a horrible organization which is why we have such a bad team. We are in a great location and have a great stadium. All NFL teams have a salary CAP yet the same teams seem to be the super teams over and over. They also have super QB's. That seems to be an essential.

There was a list of the greatest 50 FA acquisitions in NFL history on a site today. Kurt Warner was listed as #32. One was Otto Graham who enlisted in the Army and then came out and went into the NFL and was traded to Cleveland. During his 10-11 year career his team won 7 championships (there were no Superbowls) and were in the finals the other 4 seasons. That is one record that no one will ever touch. He was in the same high school league that my high school league was in. I will always remember him for his basketball exploits in high school. He went to Waukegan, IL High school and was in the Chicago Suburban League. I just do not recall how good a football player he was at the time. He was not very big. My high school was similar to the Cards in victories as are my Cubs. No one should have to endure such pain over a life time of sports.

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

Floyd (a #2 WR) was a reach. In comparison to him, Geno is not a reach if for no other reason than the position he plays. No pick we make could come close to the reach we made last year. Someone should have been fired the following Monday after that draft.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

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[Cbus cardsfan]

I would much rather have Barkley

there, I said it

I move for this post to be deleted and a ban be placed until May 1.

 

[Solar7]

Why would drafting a QB in round 2 prevent you from taking one in the 2014 draft if you thought a better one was available? The Seahawks signed Matt Flynn to be their starter yet still drafted Russell Wilson. The 49ers had Alex Smith and still drafted Kaepernick. Broncos signed Jake Plummer yet still drafted Jay Cutler. The Redskins drafted RGIII and still drafted Kirk Cousins. The idea is to give yourself the most chances to have top 15 production from the QB position. If you take a QB in round 2 in 2013 and then a QB in round 1 in 2014, the 2nd worst scenario is that just one pans out. The money is just not that restrictive anymore.

There's a huge difference between making an acquisition when you've got an incumbent guy that's coming to the end of his contract, or hasn't been very good over the course of his career, and admitting one year later that the guy you spent an extremely high pick on is entirely replaceable.

A third or a fourth round pick isn't a huge thing to give up on a guy that you see has fallen way past where you've got him on your board. If that pick doesn't pan out, it stinks, but you weren't passing on what is basically a surefire starter at that point.

One year is barely enough time to evaluate a quarterback as he adjusts to the NFL. Sure, it's become en vogue for QBs to immediately become great starters, but then you have guys that are drafted like Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, or Blaine Gabbert that haven't passed the eyeball test yet, but teams are still vetting to see if they'll unlock that potential.

Can you find me a single team in the past 10 (or even 15 years) that has drafted a QB with a high second round pick, and then one year later, added a first rounder? I can't think of any, but I could be proven wrong.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Not a reach. Likely won't be there when we draft anyway since I believe someone will leap ahead of us.

 

[Chopper0080]

There's a huge difference between making an acquisition when you've got an incumbent guy that's coming to the end of his contract, or hasn't been very good over the course of his career, and admitting one year later that the guy you spent an extremely high pick on is entirely replaceable.

A third or a fourth round pick isn't a huge thing to give up on a guy that you see has fallen way past where you've got him on your board. If that pick doesn't pan out, it stinks, but you weren't passing on what is basically a surefire starter at that point.

One year is barely enough time to evaluate a quarterback as he adjusts to the NFL. Sure, it's become en vogue for QBs to immediately become great starters, but then you have guys that are drafted like Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, or Blaine Gabbert that haven't passed the eyeball test yet, but teams are still vetting to see if they'll unlock that potential.

Can you find me a single team in the past 10 (or even 15 years) that has drafted a QB with a high second round pick, and then one year later, added a first rounder? I can't think of any, but I could be proven wrong.

It hasn't been done because the cost of draft picks used to be prohibitive. I am not saying it isn't unconventional, but if you need a QB, why not take every shot to get the right one?

If we drafted Tyler Wilson in the 2nd round this year and he didn't blow anyone out of the water, why not grab a player like David Fales in the first round next year? Maybe you get two good QBs? Maybe one pans out? If neither work, you are fired. I don't think it is a ridiculous idea.

 

[kerouac9]

If you care about value and "winning" draft day, then Geno Smith may be considered a reach.

If you care about filling a need and taking chances on players with enormous upside and potential to be very good but not great at a position where you have almost nothing, then it's probably a pretty good pick.

 

[Solar7]

It hasn't been done because the cost of draft picks used to be prohibitive. I am not saying it isn't unconventional, but if you need a QB, why not take every shot to get the right one?

If we drafted Tyler Wilson in the 2nd round this year and he didn't blow anyone out of the water, why not grab a player like David Fales in the first round next year? Maybe you get two good QBs? Maybe one pans out? If neither work, you are fired. I don't think it is a ridiculous idea.

I get your argument about the prohibitive cost in the past, but there's still a cost to the team that isn't purely financial. If we picked Tyler Wilson, and decided he wasn't "lightning in a bottle" enough and went on to pick Teddy Bridgewater or David Fales or whatever first rounder were in our face, it wouldn't discount the fact that we spent one of our four main picks that should have become an almost immediate starter on someone who has to be a backup by definition.

I have no problem with picking quarterbacks in consecutive years, or even in the same draft, but not in consecutive years with our top two picks.

(Hell, the argument that we'd move up from our spot in the second round back to the first to grab our pick of QBs would almost preclude us from being able to do this anyways - we would likely have to package next year's #1 or #2.)

 

[john h]

It is. We shouldn't.

Jeff I am saving your post so I can remind you at the end of next year. If you are correct I will tear it up and you will have forgotten about it due to age.

My ideal draft would be the best OT available which most seem to think is Fisher with our number 7 and Tyler Wilson with our #2 pick. I saw one late draft today where Fisher went well ahead of us. If he is not there when we draft then what do we do since he seems to be linked to the Cards in most draft forecast? Who would be our fall back to Fisher? Could it be a QB or another OT? Fisher does not come from a big time conference which gives me some worries as he has played against lesser competition. I know there have been some great players, especially in the line that have come from small schools but I think most of the great ones come from big time programs. Even I would look good in a Pee Wee league so competition does matter.

 

[Shane]

Not a reach. Likely won't be there when we draft anyway since I believe someone will leap ahead of us.

Yep!

 

[Shane]

If you care about value and "winning" draft day, then Geno Smith may be considered a reach.

If you care about filling a need and taking chances on players with enormous upside and potential to be very good but not great at a position where you have almost nothing, then it's probably a pretty good pick.

Great post!

 

[Chopper0080]

If you care about value and "winning" draft day, then Geno Smith may be considered a reach.

If you care about filling a need and taking chances on players with enormous upside and potential to be very good but not great at a position where you have almost nothing, then it's probably a pretty good pick.

Well, there is that.

I guess I would have similar feeling towards drafting Geno Smith at #7 as I did to the Cardinals drafting Michael Floyd #13 last year. Wouldn't be my top choice, but I get the reasoning behind it. Of course if last year and this year are any indication, I would have a roster full of 1st round OGs.

 

[bg7brd]

If you care about value and "winning" draft day, then Geno Smith may be considered a reach.

If you care about filling a need and taking chances on players with enormous upside and potential to be very good but not great at a position where you have almost nothing, then it's probably a pretty good pick.

I agree with this but is there any REAL difference in the top 5 or 6 QB's? They seem to all have warts. We could lock down an OL position for the next 10 years and take a QB in the 2nd with slightly more risk.

 

[Totally_Red]

It hasn't been done because the cost of draft picks used to be prohibitive. I am not saying it isn't unconventional, but if you need a QB, why not take every shot to get the right one?

If we drafted Tyler Wilson in the 2nd round this year and he didn't blow anyone out of the water, why not grab a player like David Fales in the first round next year? Maybe you get two good QBs? Maybe one pans out? If neither work, you are fired. I don't think it is a ridiculous idea.

And if both are fantastic, you keep the better option and get a draft pick by trading the other guy. That's what successfull franchises do. Somehow I think it would be preferable to be getting a second round draft pick from Andy Reid for a quarterback we didn't need, than giving him one for a QB we desperately need.

 

[kerouac9]

I agree with this but is there any REAL difference in the top 5 or 6 QB's? They seem to all have warts. We could lock down an OL position for the next 10 years and take a QB in the 2nd with slightly more risk.

Show me someone who's going to do that and we can have a talk. I'm exhausted with posters asserting to me that so-and-so will "lock down" this or that OL position "for the next 10 years."

I'd like to hold on to an offensive guard for two seasons before I start worrying about what I'm going to do for the next decade.

 

[bg7brd]

Well, I'm exhausted with posters who think they know everything and are bothered by other posters opinions. Many people consider Chance Warmack about as the safest pick in the draft.

 

[Mulli]

Show me someone who's going to do that and we can have a talk. I'm exhausted with posters asserting to me that so-and-so will "lock down" this or that OL position "for the next 10 years."

I'd like to hold on to an offensive guard for two seasons before I start worrying about what I'm going to do for the next decade.

Dopes on NFL Network have Warmack in HOF. Including current and former NFL lineman. :skeptical:

 

[Solar7]

And if both are fantastic, you keep the better option and get a draft pick by trading the other guy. That's what successfull franchises do. Somehow I think it would be preferable to be getting a second round draft pick from Andy Reid for a quarterback we didn't need, than giving him one for a QB we desperately need.

That's of course true - I'd love to have a quality backup that's coveted by other teams... but the trades that occur in this case are because they hit on QB in later rounds - not because they drafted a QB in the first two rounds every year with the idea of trading one.

 

[cardinalsfan]

Important day for Geno Smith tomorrow as it's his pro day.

 

[joeshmo]

If you care about value and "winning" draft day, then Geno Smith may be considered a reach.

If you care about filling a need and taking chances on players with enormous upside and potential to be very good but not great at a position where you have almost nothing, then it's probably a pretty good pick.

Really good way of putting things.

Goes for anyone player or position, not just Geno Smith.

 

[JeffGollin]

Jeff I am saving your post so I can remind you at the end of next year. If you are correct I will tear it up and you will have forgotten about it due to age.

My ideal draft would be the best OT available which most seem to think is Fisher with our number 7 and Tyler Wilson with our #2 pick. I saw one late draft today where Fisher went well ahead of us. If he is not there when we draft then what do we do since he seems to be linked to the Cards in most draft forecast? Who would be our fall back to Fisher? Could it be a QB or another OT? Fisher does not come from a big time conference which gives me some worries as he has played against lesser competition. I know there have been some great players, especially in the line that have come from small schools but I think most of the great ones come from big time programs. Even I would look good in a Pee Wee league so competition does matter.

John - I'm with you. I think you stack your board and pick off the players who get drafted until you get to #7. I just don't rate Geno or any QB anywhere near that high. As for Fisher, he's in my Top 7 but not necessarily my top OL. If he's off our board, I could see us drafting Joeckel, Warmack, Lane Johnson, Cooper or an edge rusher like Jordon or possibly a NT (in no particular order). The tricky part of considering a DT is the apples-to-oranges BPA comparison to offensive linemen but Lotuleilei (if he checks out medically) looks awfully tempting. And we have 7 weeks or so for that to change (For example, something wild could shake things up during the Alabama Pro Day today). But Geno? A reach at #7/wouldn't take him.

As for Tyler W with our 2nd pick, I could see us torn between him and Scott with our 3rd pick. If Margus Hunt is there at #38, he'd be my pick. I could see us trading back into the 2nd round from #71 to get Wilson or Scott.

 

[WildBB]

He seems best for a WC offense fit. Not really BA's MO. We'll see. I see them going OL first and rolling the dice 2nd.

But no, he's not a reach where we sit in the division right now. We'll need some years to make inroads.