Georgia OLB Azeez Ojulari - Reddick replacement in Rd 1

[Solar7]

Draft is about long terms
The value of the pick and future of the roster
O OLB under contract next season
I can't repeat there are adequate rb's for our system later in the draft
Behind CB's is our major need
Then WR
Tigh end too but I guess they ll trade for someone with a late 2022 draft pick

"0 OLB under contract next season"
No, we have Markus Golden, Devon Kennard, Tanner Vallejo. Not that they're world beaters, but they've started many games in this league.

I implore you to look at the draft history of 5th-7th round RBs and examine how many actually contribute anything to their teams. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

I've got some time, so I'll break down the numbers for the past 5 years. I stripped out the fullbacks and any position changes. Here's what it looks like for 2020-2016.

- 56 drafted, 2,608 potential games (16 game seasons since drafted)
- 15 either still on roster, completed rookie contract, or were traded for compensation - ~27%
- 13 with more than 100 rushing attempts or over 40 targets, number drops to 10 if only on their original team
- 185 games started for their original team - 7% of those games (130 from the trio of Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, & Jordan Howard - 70% of total)
- 674 games played for their original team - 26% of those games (22% of total)

The big whopper - Jones, Carson, and Howard accounted for 41% of all rushes and targets of the 56 men drafted since 2016.

Remove those three major outliers, and only 7 players started five games or over for the team that drafted them, and one started more than 10 (Wendell Smallwood). Out of 56 players, and 2,608 games.

That's abysmal. It means the chances of drafting a guy who will start five games over their career for you in recent history in these rounds is about 18%, and even that's a very low standard. These late rounds don't produce reliable players.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

So how was Edmonds able to outproduce both their RBs last season?

You thinking Chase is a better option than those 2 says it all.

 

[Solar7]

You really love overrating the absolute hell out of RBs from other teams, lol.


Edmonds outproduced Singletary on total yards, TDs, & YPC last season.


Zack Moss is just.....lol.

Better career YPC, dramatically better career YPG rushing, better career receiving YPG, and actually puts those numbers up as a starter, where Edmonds flops at every opportunity... yes, he's the better back. Admittedly falls behind on the TDs, but that's mainly on account of opportunity. Moss is used more in the red zone.

 

[juza76]

"0 OLB under contract next season"
No, we have Markus Golden, Devon Kennard, Tanner Vallejo. Not that they're world beaters, but they've started many games in this league.

I implore you to look at the draft history of 5th-7th round RBs and examine how many actually contribute anything to their teams. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

I've got some time, so I'll break down the numbers for the past 5 years. I stripped out the fullbacks and any position changes. Here's what it looks like for 2020-2016.

- 56 drafted, 2,608 potential games (16 game seasons since drafted)
- 15 either still on roster, completed rookie contract, or were traded for compensation - ~27%
- 13 with more than 100 rushing attempts or over 40 targets, number drops to 10 if only on their original team
- 185 games started for their original team - 7% of those games (130 from the trio of Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, & Jordan Howard - 70% of total)
- 674 games played for their original team - 26% of those games (22% of total)

The big whopper - Jones, Carson, and Howard accounted for 41% of all rushes and targets of the 56 men drafted since 2016.

Remove those three major outliers, and only 7 players started five games or over for the team that drafted them, and one started more than 10 (Wendell Smallwood). Out of 56 players, and 2,608 games.

That's abysmal. It means the chances of drafting a guy who will start five games over their career for you in recent history in these rounds is about 18%, and even that's a very low standard. These late rounds don't produce reliable players.

So u want to tell me that we are fine with golden Kennard next season
Tallejo is a ILB so I don't know how u put him in that spot

 

[Praxis]

I don't have a first round grade on any of these RBs. It's always risky taking a first round RB anyway. Very few worth a second contract.

 

[Solar7]

So u want to tell me that we are fine with golden Kennard next season
Tallejo is a ILB so I don't know how u put him in that spot

Just using Spotrac.

And no, do I think we're "okay" with them? Not in particular, but we're better off than we are at TE, RB, CB, or WR next year. At least they've played. 2022's TE and RB rooms currently have 0 players who have even been active for a game. CB has a nickel back and not any starters or depth. WR has DHop and Isabella and Johnson who are nowhere near locks to make it through training camp THIS year. OLB is 5th on the list of needs, and one could argue OL is just as much of a priority because we have no idea who is starting on the right side now or in 2022.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I don't have a first round grade on any of these RBs. It's always risky taking a first round RB anyway. Very few worth a second contract.

Who cares if they’re worth a 2nd contrast. Most RBs aren’t. But if you get 4-5 years high production, it’s worth it.
Where teams mess up is giving the extension like the Cowboys with Zeke, the Rams with Gurley, etc. But 4 years of top notch production is worth it.
The Cards got 1 year of production out of Reddick and some considered him a loss.

 

[Praxis]

Who cares if they’re worth a 2nd contrast. Most RBs aren’t. But if you get 4-5 years high production, it’s worth it.
Where teams mess up is giving the extension like the Cowboys with Zeke, the Rams with Gurley, etc. But 4 years of top notch production is worth it.
The Cards got 1 year of production out of Reddick and some considered him a loss.

It depends on the RB. The last RB I had a first round grade on was Josh Jacobs.

 

[Solar7]

Who cares if they’re worth a 2nd contrast. Most RBs aren’t. But if you get 4-5 years high production, it’s worth it.
Where teams mess up is giving the extension like the Cowboys with Zeke, the Rams with Gurley, etc. But 4 years of top notch production is worth it.
The Cards got 1 year of production out of Reddick and some considered him a loss.

I understand people wanting the most bang for their buck and a 10 year hall of fame type player, but RB is still a position you have to fill.

I really can't fathom this sudden mindset that any ol' player is gonna come in here and tear it up. Weren't people just all in on signing 8 games of Kenyan Drake to a long term deal or at least paying him the franchise tag because they thought he would be the player that made this offense's engine purr?

What happened?

 

[DVontel]

Keim is so bad at drafting that he has brainwashed this fanbase into thinking that drafting a RB in the 1st round in 2021 is okay because they’ll take anything at this point.

 

[Solar7]

Keim is so bad at drafting that he has brainwashed this fanbase into thinking that drafting a RB in the 1st round because they’ll take anything at this point.

It's just a classic "looks like he has no plan" Keim move. Last year was the perfect time to draft a guy to see what you had at the position for a year, and now we have a very unproven, undersized guy lined up to start who is being backed up by guys with as much NFL experience as this message board.

If we had a 3rd rounder, it wouldn't be as panicky, but the position is just paper thin. Even scarier if you don't think all that highly of Edmonds.

 

[Praxis]

It's just a classic "looks like he has no plan" Keim move. Last year was the perfect time to draft a guy to see what you had at the position for a year, and now we have a very unproven, undersized guy lined up to start who is being backed up by guys with as much NFL experience as this message board.

If we had a 3rd rounder, it wouldn't be as panicky, but the position is just paper thin. Even scarier if you don't think all that highly of Edmonds.

So you wanted to reach for one last year? Who would you have taken? I loved Cam Akers but I had a second round grade on him.

 

[Solar7]

So you wanted to reach for one last year? Who would you have taken? I loved Cam Akers but I had a second round grade on him.

I had hoped Zack Moss would be the pick in the 3rd. I wasn't disappointed with Josh Jones with how far he fell, but still. Joshua Kelley is another interesting one.

Once we got to the 4th, admittedly, I was also stumping for Eno Benjamin who we got much much later, but now that he hasn't ever played a snap, I can't count on him. I was hoping he'd at least get some snaps.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I don't have a first round grade on any of these RBs. It's always risky taking a first round RB anyway. Very few worth a second contract.

I’m a cardinals fan, what’s a second contract?

 

[Chopper0080]

EDGE/CB/WR

It isn't tough though I think EDGE might be a bit of a reach at 16.

I am of the mind that you don't HAVE to take a CB in round 1, but IMO the talent available matches up pretty well. Vance is definitely looking for something and per Keim it wasn't available in FA. You have to find it somewhere. We will see.

A ton of WRs so we will see. Not many signed through next year.

I am not going to get worked up about RB.

 

[oaken1]

Keim is so bad at drafting that he has brainwashed this fanbase into thinking that drafting a RB in the 1st round in 2021 is okay because they’ll take anything at this point.

I’ll admit it

draft three players that stick and make a positive difference for the team and I’m happy with the draft.
I don’t care what position they play.... RG....NT....ILB....TE

I just want to see this team start drafting players worth keeping

 

[HairZach]

Keim is so bad at drafting that he has brainwashed this fanbase into thinking that drafting a RB in the 1st round in 2021 is okay because they’ll take anything at this point.

Look I'm very new to draft analysis in general. I'm probably missing the plot, but I'll walk you through my thought process for being okay with a round 1 running back.

I want us to make a run while Kyler has his rookie contract so I'm looking for immediate return from the first round pick. Cornerbacks tend to struggle their first year no matter where they are taken and the #3 overall pick last year, Okudah, being arguably the worst CB in the league last year has my recency bias acting up. Running backs however, usually hit the ground running and are able to be effective starters their first year. I also think RB is a major hole in our roster that held us back a lot last year. We need one, why not get a really good one?

That brings me to the #1 running back prospect. In my mind Najee Harris is a complete player. Great at short yardage between the tackles, fast in space and a good pass catcher to boot. The Cardinals are in desperate need of a back that is good in short yardage situations. Teams stopped Kyler from running halfway through last year and all a sudden 3rd and 1 became impossible to convert. The whole offense crumbled. Harris plugs that massive hole in our offense and makes it so Kyler's run game won't be contained as easily. I think any team would be happy to have Harris on their roster. I don't think his skillset is matched by other backs in this draft. I'm not concerned that its bad value to take him in the first, since I don't take its possible to get a similar player in the second. (That last sentence is where I worry my logic might be faulty, but I do worry there will be a run on the top RBs at the start of round 2)

Of course CB is still very important and another huge position of need. I won't be disappointed if we take Horn or Farley. Honestly I'm fine with a running back being taken in round 2 instead. I just view the running game as so important that I am willing to use a first rounder. Overall I think rounds 1&2 should be spent on CB and RB and I don't care which order. If we had more picks I'd be okay with a RB in the 3rd, but I really don't want us plugging such a major need in the 5th.

 

[DVontel]

I never bring him up, but look at Mitch’s article on Revenge Of the Birds on why he makes the case of drafting a RB in R1.


Then, look at the comments, lol.

 

[juza76]

I never bring him up, but look at Mitch’s article on Revenge Of the Birds on why he makes the case of drafting a RB in R1.


Then, look at the comments, lol.

I read some of them
They are bringing valid points how drafting a RB early is not a smart decision

An example) Patriots with belicheck drafted just 2 first rounder Maroney and Sony... They had the same impact of an UDFA or likely worse

Long list of RB drafted in the first that couldn't change much their offenses
But I'm sure Solar keep disagreeing

IMO The only 2 rb's worthing an extension and keep being difference makers are Henry and Kamara, drafted in the second round

If Harris is there in the second round then I would consider him but I'm pretty sure his numbers can be matched by a guy like Kylin Hill, who can be drafted in the fourth or fifth round

 

[DVontel]

I read some of them
They are bringing valid points how drafting a RB early is not a smart decision

An example) Patriots with belicheck drafted just 2 first rounder Maroney and Sony... They had the same impact of an UDFA or likely worse

Long list of RB drafted in the first that couldn't change much their offenses
But I'm sure Solar keep disagreeing

IMO The only 2 rb's worthing an extension and keep being difference makers are Henry and Kamara, drafted in the second round

If Harris is there in the second round then I would consider him but I'm pretty sure his numbers can be matched by a guy like Kylin Hill, who can be drafted in the fourth or fifth round

Kamara was drafted in the 3rd round which makes it even sweeter, but yea.

 

[football karma]

draft three players that stick and make a positive difference for the team and I’m happy with the draft.

fwiw: GMs that do this consistently would be top 5 GMs in the NFL

 

[Solar7]

I read some of them
They are bringing valid points how drafting a RB early is not a smart decision

An example) Patriots with belicheck drafted just 2 first rounder Maroney and Sony... They had the same impact of an UDFA or likely worse

Long list of RB drafted in the first that couldn't change much their offenses
But I'm sure Solar keep disagreeing

IMO The only 2 rb's worthing an extension and keep being difference makers are Henry and Kamara, drafted in the second round

If Harris is there in the second round then I would consider him but I'm pretty sure his numbers can be matched by a guy like Kylin Hill, who can be drafted in the fourth or fifth round

I think you're missing the argument here. It's not so much that I desperately want us to pick an RB in the first, it's that in terms of what draft capital we have, we don't have many opportunities to upgrade the position. If you go back to early March and February, when we had a pick in the top 3 rounds, I wasn't pushing to get one that high.

But the way the board is playing out without our 3rd rounder, it looks like the 1st round is going to be our only chance of moving the needle and getting a talented without a ton of luck. The top three backs will likely be gone by #49, and reaching for a Michael Carter or similar in the 2nd isn't a great move.

You talk about a "Kylin Hill in the 4th-5th," but we don't have a 4th. You're crossing your fingers this guy drops to the middle part of the 5th, long after a ton of compensatory picks are worked through too. I've already shown evidence that teams get next to nothing from players drafted at the position after the 4th round, but you seem to think we know something about the draft that other teams don't.

Does "Kylin Hill, starting RB of the Arizona Cardinals" if Edmonds tweaks a hamstring in week 1 really make you feel comfortable?

 

[DVontel]

I think you're missing the argument here. It's not so much that I desperately want us to pick an RB in the first, it's that in terms of what draft capital we have, we don't have many opportunities to upgrade the position. If you go back to early March and February, when we had a pick in the top 3 rounds, I wasn't pushing to get one that high.

But the way the board is playing out without our 3rd rounder, it looks like the 1st round is going to be our only chance of moving the needle and getting a talented without a ton of luck. The top three backs will likely be gone by #49, and reaching for a Michael Carter or similar in the 2nd isn't a great move.

You talk about a "Kylin Hill in the 4th-5th," but we don't have a 4th. You're crossing your fingers this guy drops to the middle part of the 5th, long after a ton of compensatory picks are worked through too. I've already shown evidence that teams get next to nothing from players drafted at the position after the 4th round, but you seem to think we know something about the draft that other teams don't.

Does "Kylin Hill, starting RB of the Arizona Cardinals" if Edmonds tweaks a hamstring in week 1 really make you feel comfortable?

Yea. Especially if we go OL with our first pick.

 

[Solar7]

Yea. Especially if we go OL with our first pick.

Which we probably won't.

Again, we'll see what happens. My stance is that if we have Chase Edmonds as our starter (or any of the current FAs), we'll end the season as a bottom 5 rushing team from the RB position, and he'll have a sub-4.0 YPC.

Obviously a lot can happen from now until the end of draft night 3.

 

[DVontel]

Which we probably won't.

Again, we'll see what happens. My stance is that if we have Chase Edmonds as our starter (or any of the current FAs), we'll end the season as a bottom 5 rushing team from the RB position, and he'll have a sub-4.0 YPC.

Obviously a lot can happen from now until the end of draft night 3.

Who knows?

If Horn, Surtain, & the WRs are all gone, I could see it happening if Farley’s & Newsome’s durabilty issues scare us off completely.

Upgrading the OL will make Chase & the other RBs’ jobs easier.