Getting Ready for the Spurs

[az1965]

This series is EXACTLY why Kurt Thomas was traded for in the first place. Period.

Ditto! KT needs to earn his paycheck now!

 

[Griffin]

You're right, but I don't think D'Antoni knows that. His preference is to play Thomas only when he absolutely has to.

I was just thinking that if we see KT out there for extended periods of time, that probably means that either Amare is in foul trouble, or Duncan is having a field day. I doubt KT will start, unless the series starts slipping away. But if when KT is on the floor he proves to be effective against Duncan, he might earn more minutes.

 

[elindholm]

You mean against teams that don't have Tim Duncan?

It's not like Duncan and the Spurs are the only opponent Thomas can help against. Everyone on this board, including you, comments on how much the Suns' defense and rebounding improve when Thomas is in the game. But no matter how badly the Suns are getting slaughtered in those departments, D'Antoni parks Thomas's ass on the bench, unless he has no other option. Do you think he's going to open his eyes all of a sudden now that the Suns are playing the Spurs, instead of any other team that kills them inside?

 

[Michael]

I'm not sure, if we can beat the Spurs. We absolutely cannot afford to lose game 1. That would put too much pressure on us for game 2.
We might even win the first two games to stand a chance, I believe.

The Spurs are always giving Phoenix a hard time. Shawn is my biggest concern when facing San Antonio. He was completely shut down by Bowen two years ago.
Back in 2005 Bowen would have guarded JJ if he hadn't been injured, but this year we don't have someone like JJ. Raja is just not that kind of offensive thread in my opinion.
With Leandro in, things might change however. I expect to see a combination of Steve/Leandro a lot in the series. We need to set the tempo, and obviously Steve/Leandro is the way to do it.
But Leandro on Parker and Steve on Bowen on the defensive end, and we won't give up too much.

I don't know if Amare can average 37ppg like he did two years ago. Frankly, I hope he won't.
Amare scored that much because the Spurs always stay with our shooters, thereby forcing us to go to Amare.
That is one reason, why Bowen "shut down" Shawn two years ago, and most of us remember the Matrix standing in the corner for most of the time, waiting for a chance to put up a three pointer.
We cannot do that. Ball-movement will be crucial. Get everybody involved or nobody will find his rhythm.
Shawn will need to cut to the basket the way he did so often against LA.

On defense I favour not to double-team Duncan every time. Just like the Suns, the Spurs rely heavily on their shooters.
I fear Parker, since he has giving us headaches every time we played them (except for 2003 when Marbury abused him to no end).
There is also the matter of Ginobili who has proved to be almost as unpleasant for Phoenix as Parker.

It will be decisive how good Shawn will be able to contain Ginobili and how Raja/Leandro can take Parker's scoring away.

However, the most important task will go to Steve - as usual. For him to exploit weaknesses in San Antonio's defense, to get everybody involved and find the balance of scoring/passing will be the toughest challenge of his career.
I expect Bowen to guard Shawn, so Parker will likely stay with Steve. In my mind Parker is a completely underrated defender and a big part of San Antonio's overall defensive capabilities.
He is incredibly quick and has become a good help-defender over the years.

The part I'm afraid of the most: If those rumours are true, we might see the last 4-7 games of either Shawn or Amare as a Sun. I certainly don't want that to happen.

To predict the outcome of this series is hard.

If we win the first two at home, the Suns will have a great chance to beat the nemesis.
If we split the first two, I predict the Spurs to win the series comfortably.
I don't want to think about losing the first two.

Anyway. The Suns are healthy for the first time in recent history and have the firepower and defensive quality to give the Spurs more than a challenge.

Suns in seven!

 

[mathbzh]

If we double team Duncan, there is no way we can deny Parker access to the paint. I hope KT can deal with TD but he will have a hard time, TD is not exactly the same in playoff. If he can slow down Duncan, the Spurs will be in trouble.
I think Bowen will switch between Nash and Marion. And I agree Parker is a very underrated defender.
They are a big chalenge bu I think we are ready.
Suns in 7

 

[Divide Et Impera]

Sadly, I just don't see the Suns beating SA....

Spurs in 6....

 

[cly2tw]

Suns in 5.

Amare in today's game showed agains signs that he will power this team to win. Early on, he was perfectly content with setting screens, passing, and active on offensive rebounding. And when Nash's nerve got the better of himself, Amare came out and bailed the whole team out. He is no longer the one-dimentional dunker of two years ago. Saw that sweet 15 foot fallaway over Turief in the 4th? That's Barkley- or Dream-like.

And, Manu was the guy who destroyed us two years ago every single time we'd seem to have a chance to lead when Spurs' offense became stagnant. Marion could not keep with him. This year, Marion's perimeter defense improved a lot, rare for a vet like him. and we have Raja.

Third, we have Barbosa unstoppable and Diaw seems to regain his confidence better over the course of the Lakers series.

Fourth, Kurt can limit Duncan's damage with 1-on-1 coverage. Amare's defense also improved a lot that it should not be easy to score against him like it used to be.

All the while, Spurs aged. If we don't have to double team too much, Horry and Finley won't do much harm.

So, i don't understand the pessimism at all.

 

[hsandhu]

Let's do this baby!

I'm actually not nervous at all. Simply because if we can't beat these guys when healthy, we don't deserve the championship anyway. And it'll hurt, but at least I can live with that.

To quote the great Ric Flair, "To be the man, you've got to beat the man," and we've got our shot.

 

[az1965]

Horry and Finley won't do much harm.

Finley has been hot in the playoffs so we have to be careful. And big shot Bob always kills you with a dagger.

 

[azirish]

I don't see Bowen defending Marion very much. The Spurs put Bowen on the opponent's #1 perimeter threat and that's not Marion.

The reason KT needs to play is to keep Amare out of foul trouble. Amare creates major problems for opponents and the Spurs do not have a second big man offensive threat to get him into foul trouble.

 

[HooverDam]

my god man, is it just me or does it feel like we're gearing up to play DARTH VADER?

I'm honestly not at all worried, I know everyone else is, but I think the Suns will win the series. I have extreme confidence in this team.

Also I would be shocked if D'Antoni starts KT, and I'd be upset. The basis of the D'Antoni system is the following, 1. run, 2. make them match up to you. You don't worry about matching your opponents, make them match you. Havent we learned how bad changing your lineup can be? Look what it did to Dallas against GS.

The only change I could possibly perceive is putting Diaw back in as a starter instead of Jr. Though I do prefer Jr starting, so he knows he's just in for defense, hustling and an occasional open 3 (which he will miraculously turn into a 4 point play).

Here are the match ups I like:

Nash on Bowen
Bell on Parker (then switch him to Manu when he subs in)
Amare on Elson/Oberto (whoever starts)
Marion on Duncan
Jr on Finley

This allows Phoenix to hide Nash on Bowen obviously. Jr should have no problem w/ Finley, and hopefully he'll keep Finley from getting set shots (Finley can't hit the ocean if he has to move). Amare on Oberto/Elson for obvious reasons as well.

The Spurs bringing Manu off the bench is going to hurt them in this series. It allows the Suns to put their best perimeter defender (Bell) on Parker, and hopefully slow his drives, while allowing the Suns two best shot blockers (Marion/Amare) to already be covering interior players, and thus have an easier shot at switching over to block Parker.

People may think I'm crazy to want Marion on Duncan, but he can do it until KT subs in. Marion always gets up for a defensive challenge, and Duncan is usually bothered more by lean, athletic shot blockers rather than powerful plodders (KT seems to be the exception because of his outstanding defensive 'fundamentals').

When Manu comes in the game, you can switch Marion to Parker, and Bell to Manu, or keep Bell on Parker if he's doing really well and put Marion on Manu. Then put Amare/KT on Duncan, and Amare/Diaw on Elson/Uberto (Diaw could also easily defend Bowen and Finley).

Actually the more I think about it, I really like this plan of attack and hope its what the coaches go with, because I think the Spurs are just screwed match up wise. The Suns are too versatile, they have so many guys who can cover so many different Spurs players (and we all know how helpful it can be just to give an offensive player different 'looks' all game), and the Spurs players are much more 'specialists' who aren't as versatile. Also the Spurs are of course older, and not nearly as deep as they've been in the past.

 

[azirish]

With D'Antoni, anything is possible but the simple truth is that the Spurs are very very good at slowing the game down. The Suns will try to push as much as they can, but starting a quicker player may not help.

The flip side is that starting Amare on Duncan risks Amare getting into early foul trouble. My expectation is more along the lines of:

Amare guards Oberto/Elson
KT guards Duncan
Marion guards Parker
Raja guards Finley/Manu
Nash guards Bowen

 

[dodie53]

the key here is diaw..

he really needs to step-up..

offensively and defensively (sometimes he will be asked to guard duncan),

when he drives, he has to take it strong to the hoop,
and more importantly, he needs to rebound..

 

[Budden]

All I know is that the Suns better forget the Lakers series. Wipe it clean from memory. If they take anything from that series into the second round - ANYTHING - they're going to get trounced.

All of the ally-oops to Marion, all of the knifing through the lane, drawing one defender, and dumping it down for the open slam, the throwing the ball out in front of everybody else to Barbosa for the open fast-break layup.. it's all going to cease to exist against the Spurs.

The Nuggets averaged 105 ppg during the regular season. Last night, they scored 78 points. For the entire series, they averaged under 90. The Spurs are the real deal.

The problem this series is going to be "we just didn't shoot the ball well tonight. Nine times out of ten, if we get the kind of looks we got tonight, I'll be perfectly comfortable with our situation. We just gotta make our shots." That's how it always seems against the Spurs. The difference is, the Suns are going to miss those shots because they don't let anybody get comfortable. For the 3pt shooters, they have to shoot just a tick faster, they have to set their feet just a little better, etc. than they're comfortable doing. So they miss. And whenever they finally do get a seemingly open shot, they rush it anyway because they know waiting even an instant will mean a defender running at them. For Steve Nash, that's perfectly OK. He can adjust, he can shoot it a little quicker, he can pump fake and get into that midrange jumper. But for Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw, it just doesn't work. You can say, "Well, we just have to run, not let the Spurs get into their half-court defensive set," but the truth is that stopping the running game is part of their half-court defensive set.

So I say again: the Suns better forget that first-round serires. They might think their offense is clicking, that Marion is finally playing well in the playoffs, that Amare is a beast (and he will be against Duncan, obviously), that Barbosa is an all-star, that Nash is the extremely obvious choice for the MVP, but it's not going to be like that against the Spurs.

 

[Diawsome]

Here are the match ups I like:
Nash on Bowen
Bell on Parker (then switch him to Manu when he subs in)
Amare on Elson/Oberto (whoever starts)
Marion on Duncan
Jr on Finley

The only time Marion should be defending Duncan is when both Amare and KT are on the bench in foul trouble. He simply is not big/strong enough to be a good post defender. Tim Duncan, Elton Brand, Lamar Odom are all examples of bigs who have trashed Marion's post defense in the playoffs. They back him down in the paint and either score at will or find the open man on the wing because of the constant double teams sent to help him.

Marion is much more suited for roaming the perimeter using his athleticism to bother the likes of Parker and Ginobili and being the weak side help defender on bigs like Duncan.

Which is why these defensive match-ups are more helpful to the Suns.

Amare guards Oberto/Elson
KT guards Duncan
Marion guards Parker
Raja guards Finley/Manu
Nash guards Bowen

Marion and Bell out on the perimeter harassing Ginobili & Parker, KT being able to play man-to-man defense on Duncan, Nash "hiding" on Bowen allowing Amare to roam the paint altering shots from those who penetrate into the lane with a less likely chance of foul trouble.

 

[HooverDam]

^I don't think Marion should be on Duncan most of the game, just to start the game. You don't want Amare on Duncan to start the game, because if he starts getting into early foul trouble it just throws his whole game off for the night. The Suns should be bale to Sustain Marion on Duncan for the first 5 or so minutes of the game no problem.

People on this board seem to be forgetting a very key part of basketball, the other team has to guard the Suns as well! If you go with the starting line up the Suns used against LA, how is SA going to match up? They simply can't is the answer.

Look they'll have Bowen on Marion obviously. Parker on Nash and Oberto/Elson on Amare, we know all that for sure. So now they are left with Duncan and Finley having to cover Raja Bell and James Jones! Who is Duncan going to guard? No one is the answer really. You know damned well he isn't going to come out to the perimeter to cover Bell or Jones, so the Spurs will try to pack the paint and have Duncan doubling Amare and trying to stop penetration. If these two line ups start the game, the Suns should often have one man open on the perimeter and they'll have to make the Spurs pay for that.

 

[TucsonDevil]

Let's employ Popp's strategy on Defense. Allow Duncan one-on-one access to the paint against KT. Keep the rest of the defenders squared up on their assignments, play physical, try and deny easy entry passes. Force Duncan to beat you. I don't think they can be successful... Key - stop the penetration of Parker, and never leave Finley or Horry open to take a 3-pointer.

 

[elindholm]

Key - stop the penetration of Parker, and never leave Finley or Horry open to take a 3-pointer.

Both Parker and Floppy can break the Suns' defense down at will, and attempting to guard Duncan straight-up is going to lead to foul trouble. Therefore, Spurs players will be open on the perimeter, and the Suns will just have to live with it. I'm fine with leaving Horry open, because he seems content to make his one or two Big Shots per series and clank all of the others. Finley, on the other hand, shot 8-9 from behind the line last game.

 

[TucsonDevil]

Both Parker and Floppy can break the Suns' defense down at will, and attempting to guard Duncan straight-up is going to lead to foul trouble. Therefore, Spurs players will be open on the perimeter, and the Suns will just have to live with it. I'm fine with leaving Horry open, because he seems content to make his one or two Big Shots per series and clank all of the others. Finley, on the other hand, shot 8-9 from behind the line last game.

Foul trouble is true, but we have three guys to throw at him - KT, Burke, and Marks... I don't care that they can't stop him... we stop everyone else! Duncan can't score 70 points, he isn't that good.

 

[arthurracoon]

All I know is that the Suns better forget the Lakers series. Wipe it clean from memory. If they take anything from that series into the second round - ANYTHING - they're going to get trounced.

All of the ally-oops to Marion, all of the knifing through the lane, drawing one defender, and dumping it down for the open slam, the throwing the ball out in front of everybody else to Barbosa for the open fast-break layup.. it's all going to cease to exist against the Spurs.

...

So I say again: the Suns better forget that first-round serires. They might think their offense is clicking, that Marion is finally playing well in the playoffs, that Amare is a beast (and he will be against Duncan, obviously), that Barbosa is an all-star, that Nash is the extremely obvious choice for the MVP, but it's not going to be like that against the Spurs.

right on the money

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

^I don't think Marion should be on Duncan most of the game, just to start the game. You don't want Amare on Duncan to start the game, because if he starts getting into early foul trouble it just throws his whole game off for the night. The Suns should be bale to Sustain Marion on Duncan for the first 5 or so minutes of the game no problem.

People on this board seem to be forgetting a very key part of basketball, the other team has to guard the Suns as well! If you go with the starting line up the Suns used against LA, how is SA going to match up? They simply can't is the answer.

Look they'll have Bowen on Marion obviously. Parker on Nash and Oberto/Elson on Amare, we know all that for sure. So now they are left with Duncan and Finley having to cover Raja Bell and James Jones! Who is Duncan going to guard? No one is the answer really. You know damned well he isn't going to come out to the perimeter to cover Bell or Jones, so the Spurs will try to pack the paint and have Duncan doubling Amare and trying to stop penetration. If these two line ups start the game, the Suns should often have one man open on the perimeter and they'll have to make the Spurs pay for that.

i think your matchups are fairly accurate. they'll start with duncan on jones and he'll sag off incredibly for help in the lane. he'll wreak havoc in the lane. and unfortuntely i don't see jones making the spurs pay. yeah, he hit some shots in the lakers series, but the stakes have gone up and i could see him choking. he buries his shots, we win.

i also see barbs as the potential difference maker. the kid's just got ice in his veins. he's not a bad ass. but he just doesn't seem to get rattled. and only parker can keep up with him, and that's not even really saying that parker can actually defend him.

 

[elindholm]

The reason I don't see Barbosa as a "difference maker" is that the Suns simply have no chance unless he plays very well. He needs to score 20 points per game and shoot a high percentage with few turnovers. Otherwise, see you next year.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think the one thing that everyone also is discounting is how good this team has become in half court sets. Yes, we do need to push the ball and run as much as possible. We need to get out in transition and play our game. However, it used to be that when this team couldn't run, I felt the game was already over. We play better defense and can run the half court set in spurts. I don't think we could do that before.

If SA thinks this is the same Suns team from 2 years ago, they are in for a rude awakening IMO. Especially from our bench. Barbosa is going to be a big key in this series.

 

[azirish]

Just as we should ignore what happened in the Laker series, the Spurs should ignore what happened in the Nuggets series.

After game 1, the Nuggets were unable to run and did not move the ball. Iverson continued to try to beat the Spurs off the dribble and took an amazing number of bad shots. Crediting the Spurs defense ignores the complete absense of teamwork by the Nuggets.

D'Antoni will have to adjust his half court offense to deal with the way the Spurs will play them:

1. Limit the number of three point shots: The Spurs press the shooters from the start and won't collapse their defense like most teams do.

2. Don't expect clear paths to the basket. The Spurs rotate quicker than any other team in the league.

3. Don't expect switching breakdowns against the pick and roll. Once again, the Spurs rotation is very quick.


What can be done?

Pass the ball quickly. Ordinarily the Suns try to shoot quickly, but lots of quick passing that forces continuous defensive rotation can wear the Spurs down over the course of the game. Letting them stand around is deadly.

Isolate Amare on Duncan. Tim cannot come out to stop Amare's mid range shot nor stop Amare in space. Amare should be aware of where the weakside help is coming from to make interior passes and kick outs.

Isolate Diaw on the Spur's bigs. Boris has the ability to take the ball inside and kick out to shooters or go to the rack. It is not clear if he can hit enough of his mid range shots to force their defenders to come out on him. At the same time, if Finley is on him, Boris should be able to post him up.

Spread the floor for Barbosa. Too often Suns players set up to give Leandro a pick when it's not necessary. Leandro has shown he can beat anyone and is learning to kick out when the the defense collapses on him.

Run screen and shoot plays for Raja. This is a play the Suns use some of the time, but not as often they should.

More than anything else, the Suns need to show patience and not let the Spurs defense frustrate them.

 

[dodie53]

i say use burke and marks when necessary.. (foul trouble on amare and KT)

when offense, burke and marks should always cut to the basket or crash the boards..