Getting Ready for the Spurs

[Errntknght]

Hoover,

Look they'll have Bowen on Marion obviously. Parker on Nash and Oberto/Elson on Amare, we know all that for sure. So now they are left with Duncan and Finley having to cover Raja Bell and James Jones! Who is Duncan going to guard? No one is the answer really. You know damned well he isn't going to come out to the perimeter to cover Bell or Jones, so the Spurs will try to pack the paint and have Duncan doubling Amare and trying to stop penetration. If these two line ups start the game, the Suns should often have one man open on the perimeter and they'll have to make the Spurs pay for that.

I don't think its obvious at all that Bowen would guard Marion with those lineups. I'd expect Bowen on Nash, Finley on Bell, Oberto on Amare, Parker on Jr and TD sagging off Marion. Frankly, I expect Bowen to defend Nash a good bit of the time in various lineups.

It sounds loony but if I were Pops I'd try Bowen on Amare with the aim of irritating him into offensive fouls...

 

[HooverDam]

Hoover,


I don't think its obvious at all that Bowen would guard Marion with those lineups. I'd expect Bowen on Nash, Finley on Bell, Oberto on Amare, Parker on Jr and TD sagging off Marion. Frankly, I expect Bowen to defend Nash a good bit of the time in various lineups.

It sounds loony but if I were Pops I'd try Bowen on Amare with the aim of irritating him into offensive fouls...

Actually I was starting to think about that last night myself. I said that Bowen would be on Marion, because thats been the traditional match up. If I was Popp, I'd go w/ the same defensive match ups as you've mentioned.

Its fairly certain that Oberto/Elson will be on Amare, and not Duncan, so whoever Duncan is covering needs to make the Spurs pay, that player will be smaller and quicker than Duncan and if they can hit their outside shots, it will break the Spurs back. Duncans defensive prowess is neutralized to a large degree if he's guarding a slasher, instead of a traditional big.

I think this Suns team is designed specifically to beat the Spurs, and I have supreme confidence going into this series.

 

[PetryJr]

Hoover,


I don't think its obvious at all that Bowen would guard Marion with those lineups. I'd expect Bowen on Nash, Finley on Bell, Oberto on Amare, Parker on Jr and TD sagging off Marion. Frankly, I expect Bowen to defend Nash a good bit of the time in various lineups.

I agree. Bowen spent much of the last series guarding Iverson, so it wouldn't be surprising at all. Popovich will probably put him on Nash whenever the Suns' offense starts to click. I agree about the Duncan on Marion part as well.

It's also important to remember that the Spurs like to switch on pick-and-rolls. In my opinion, whenever Parker is guarding Nash and Diaw is on the floor, Nash should force the switch and dump the ball in the post to Boris, sort or like they did last year against the Lakers. Boris does a better job than Amaré exploiting a mismatch, and his court vision could create some open threes in that situation. Of course, Pop would probably counter by putting Bowen on Nash. I don't think Diaw would be able to be very effective in the post against Bowen - at least not this year's Diaw.

Then, if Marion is on the floor and he's being guarded by Duncan, he can't settle for outside shots and needs to move without the ball, to make his speed more of a factor. Also, even if Duncan is guarding him, he can't be the one guarding Duncan. If he's guarding Tim, there's no way he'll be able to get any fastbreak opportunities, because he'll need to stay under the basket trying to keep Duncan off the offensive glass (and probably not succeeding).

On the other hand, if he's on the perimeter guarding Parker or Manu (and Amaré and KT are inside guarding Duncan and fighting for rebounds), he might have a better chance of leaking and scoring on the break. It still wouldn't be easy -- the Spurs are very disciplined and have great transition defense -- but it could help.

Other than that, I think Barbosa will need to make his long-range shots, because he won't get as many layup opportunities as he's used to. And obviously, Amaré will have to be on top of his game for the Suns to have a shot. He needs to rebound, defend, score inside and shoot from midrange as well as he can.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Let's employ Popp's strategy on Defense. Allow Duncan one-on-one access to the paint against KT. Keep the rest of the defenders squared up on their assignments, play physical, try and deny easy entry passes. Force Duncan to beat you. I don't think they can be successful... Key - stop the penetration of Parker, and never leave Finley or Horry open to take a 3-pointer.

mix in a zone often. pack the paint and make them do it from outside.

Go to Amare early an often. TD does the least damage while he is sitting on the bench. Amare can draw fouls on anyone.

Finley doesn't have a prayer of guarding Nash or Barbosa. That combo on the court will cause SA problems. I don't expect to see JR get nearly as many minutes in this series.

 

[Gaddabout]

The thing with feeding Amare is the Spurs use a rope-a-dope strategy. Unless Amare is getting to the line -- and the Spurs aren't known for stupid fouls -- the Spurs will gladly take away the three and let Amare score 50 at a clip of 2 at a time. That's more or less what they did in 2005.

The Spurs want to contain the 3s and they'll give up points in the paint to do it. They believe -- with good reason -- they'll stagnate the transition game. When they do those two things, the pace is controlled and they win by 10 or so every game. The Spurs know they can out-score Amare, but they can't outscore Amare, Barbosa, Nash, Bell, and Marion, if the 3-balls are falling.

Sooooo ... ball movement, ball movement, ball movement ... with Amare still getting his buckets in the paint, and hopefully collecting a few "and 1s" along the way. Nash cannot have a sloppy game like Game 3 or Game 5 against the Lakers.

 

[TucsonDevil]

The thing with feeding Amare is the Spurs use a rope-a-dope strategy. Unless Amare is getting to the line -- and the Spurs aren't known for stupid fouls -- the Spurs will gladly take away the three and let Amare score 50 at a clip of 2 at a time. That's more or less what they did in 2005.

Agree, however, the big difference is the Suns improved Defense on the perimeter (Bell) and down in the box (KT)... they will also have less opportunities to score. So I think there has to be a new wrinkle by Popp in order to slow down Amare.

This is going to be a great Series...

 

[Spider TX]

Do some of you people not remember that 2005 series at all? It was a series that after game 4, could have very EASILY been 3-1 in favor of the Suns. The Suns gave up leads going into the 4th quarter in games 1 and 2 with 43 and 31 point quarters for the Spurs, mainly because they were much younge than now, and the Suns played no defense whatsoever compared to now.

Let's not forget that Marion was non-existent in the series, scoring a combined 20 points through the first 3 quarters, but he is far fom that same Marion now. Also, D'Antoni wasn't playing Barbosa but about 2 minutes a game, if even putting him in at all.

This is a VERY different series than the one 2 years ago. Yes, a couple of the players are the same, but the Spurs are 2 years older, the Suns are 2 years more matured, with the MVP PG only getting better, and they play a much better defensive game, and better rounded offense with Marion playing well and the Sixth Man of the Year. Living in the past going back to that series that could have easily been reversed is just plain ridiculous.

 

[Mulli]

Do some of you people not remember that 2005 series at all? It was a series that after game 4, could have very EASILY been 3-1 in favor of the Suns. The Suns gave up leads going into the 4th quarter in games 1 and 2 with 43 and 31 point quarters for the Spurs, mainly because they were much younge than now, and the Suns played no defense whatsoever compared to now.

Let's not forget that Marion was non-existent in the series, scoring a combined 20 points through the first 3 quarters, but he is far fom that same Marion now. Also, D'Antoni wasn't playing Barbosa but about 2 minutes a game, if even putting him in at all.

This is a VERY different series than the one 2 years ago. Yes, a couple of the players are the same, but the Spurs are 2 years older, the Suns are 2 years more matured, with the MVP PG only getting better, and they play a much better defensive game, and better rounded offense with Marion playing well and the Sixth Man of the Year. Living in the past going back to that series that could have easily been reversed is just plain ridiculous.

I was thinking the same thing. Thanks.

 

[slinslin]

In 2005 Q shot like 30% and averaged 10ppg, Marion averaged 8ppg at similiar shooting and Joe Johnson was injured.

I would want to bet that we get better production than that out of Barbosa, Marion and Bell this time.

It's not like the Spurs LET Amare have his 40. If they could have stopped him they would have done it, but they were unable to do that and the rest of our team except Nash couldn't make a basket but certainly got enough opportunities.

 

[elindholm]

Having a lead late in the game against the Spurs doesn't mean anything. They know that they can turn up their defense in crunch time and hit a few big shots, so they fully expect to win if the deficit is only 7 or 8 points.

The Suns can play with the Spurs, but it's incorrect to say that they "almost" won games in which they blew a late lead. San Antonio does that to everyone, and it's by design. It's like a runner who drafts behind the lead guy for 95% of the race, then blows by him on the final kick.

 

[Spider TX]

Having a lead late in the game against the Spurs doesn't mean anything. They know that they can turn up their defense in crunch time and hit a few big shots, so they fully expect to win if the deficit is only 7 or 8 points.

The Suns can play with the Spurs, but it's incorrect to say that they "almost" won games in which they blew a late lead. San Antonio does that to everyone, and it's by design. It's like a runner who drafts behind the lead guy for 95% of the race, then blows by him on the final kick.

In no way did either of those first two games 4th quarters have anything to do with the Spurs or them playing defense. It was squarely on the Suns complete lack of defense 2 years ago, and not having another force late in the game to help out Amare. Don't try and say that those comebacks happened because the Spurs defense shut the Suns down, because it couldn't be any futher from the actual truth. Try again.

 

[elindholm]

In no way did either of those first two games 4th quarters have anything to do with the Spurs or them playing defense. It was squarely on the Suns complete lack of defense 2 years ago, and not having another force late in the game to help out Amare. Don't try and say that those comebacks happened because the Spurs defense shut the Suns down, because it couldn't be any futher from the actual truth. Try again.

Have it your way. If you watch a lot of Spurs games, though, you'll see that their opponents, very often, mysteriously lose their way at the ends of close games.

Remember, they're old and they pace themselves. They know how to stay within striking distance and then deliver the knockout when the moment calls for it. And not just against the Suns. They would have beaten Dallas last year, and most likely gone on to win the title, if not for a very uncharacteristic mental error. They have been the best team in the league for the last several years.

 

[Spider TX]

And I'm saying i'm not worried about them. They do not shut down the Suns on any consistent basis, haven't since Nash arrived. The Suns biggest enemy in the series is their end of game defense and their own shooting. The Spurs will not have a chance in hell to shut down the Suns at all like they shut down the Nuggets. If the Suns average less than 103 a game I will be very very surprised. The Spurs time has passed and you will see it exposed all in this series.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

One thing that is definately different is Barbosa was a horrible player that pissed all over himself in the WCF in 2005.

Many might have short term memories and take for granted barbosa was always as good as he is now, but that was hardly the case.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

i say use burke and marks when necessary.. (foul trouble on amare and KT)

when offense, burke and marks should always cut to the basket or crash the boards..

Prepare to be really disapointed.

 

[jbeecham]

The Suns need to run at every opportunity. Push the ball after made and missed shots to force mismatches on defense before the Spurs can get set. If we can keep up that kind of energy then the Spurs will be the team making mistakes and missing jumpers at the end of the game. If Nash is walking the ball up the court every time then we'll probably score about 90 pts and we're screwed.

 

[azirish]

The Suns need to run at every opportunity. Push the ball after made and missed shots to force mismatches on defense before the Spurs can get set. If we can keep up that kind of energy then the Spurs will be the team making mistakes and missing jumpers at the end of the game. If Nash is walking the ball up the court every time then we'll probably score about 90 pts and we're screwed.

The Suns need to push on made baskets even though the Spurs will be set, because it will force Duncan to run to get back.

 

[jbeecham]

The other thing the Suns need to do is start moving the ball forward again on their outlet passes. There have been too many times the rebounder waits for Nash to come all the way to him and hands the ball off. I realize they're trying not to turn it over, but I don't mind the occasional turnover if it leads to more fast break opportunities for the Suns overall. Also, you don't just have to outlet the ball to Nash if they have a defender glued to him to slow down our break (which is what they'll do, full court pressure on Nash), get that ball to LB or Marion or Bell. The breaks won't run as smoothly with them handling the ball, but it'll make the Spurs run a lot more and push the tempo of the game.

 

[azirish]

When Leandro and/or Boris are in the lineup, I'd rather have them bring the ball up than Nash. Parker is able to slow Nash up enough with his hand checking that there is no real advantage in having Nash handl the ball before getting into the half court set. With Parker over covering Nash, it opens up the inside for penitration.

 

[Covert Rain]

Barbosa is a huge difference. I mean the Barbosa they got to see 2 years ago is nowhere near the same player he is now. Not to mention that having Kurt gives us a legit big body to throw in there as well.

No question that this team is more talented defensively and more efficient offensively. The thing that will be crucial with San Antonio being so defensive minded is REBOUNDING and TURNOVERS.

If we can keep the rebounding close and minimize turnovers, I really like our chances in the series.

 

[Errntknght]

SteelDog,

Barbosa is a huge difference. I mean the Barbosa they got to see 2 years ago is nowhere near the same player he is now.

I don't imagine the Spurs are as optimistic as their fans about handling the Suns easily but its not like they haven't seen Barbosa before; I'm sure Pops has his crafty mind at work on how they'll deal with him - and exploit him when he's on defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bowen switched onto Barbosa if he ever gets his drive working or staying with him to prevent 3 point shots. Heck, Pops might stick Bowen on him all of game 1, trying to get him rattled for the whole series - he can make Barbs work hard just to get he ball into his hands.

As a counterpoint, the Spurs now have Finley, who was on fire from 3pt range in the Denver series. Its easy to say all we have to do is stay close and run him off the 3pt line and he's useless but he hasn't entirely lost his hops so if we put Jr on him, I'd expect to see Fins take him off the dribble. Actually, Jr tends to help out a lot, and he's good at it, but leaving Finley open at the arc to do it is not a good game plan. (The only use for Jr in this series, it seems to me, is to foul TD a lot in the 4th Q - the Spurs being noted for their coverage at the arc.)

I don't think its a big deal for D'Antoni to take Jr out of the starting lineup in favor of KT or Diaw because its not like he's been a fixture there - one could say that he was put there because he does a good job of defending Walton. He fit in with Amare defending Kwame and Marion on Odom, too. I don't a natural fit for him defending anyone on the Spurs. Still I expect Mike to start him in game one to see how it works.

 

[boisesuns]

The key is trying to work around duncan. He never commits a foul, so trying to draw one on him is useless.

 

[arthurracoon]

The other thing the Suns need to do is start moving the ball forward again on their outlet passes. There have been too many times the rebounder waits for Nash to come all the way to him and hands the ball off. I realize they're trying not to turn it over, but I don't mind the occasional turnover if it leads to more fast break opportunities for the Suns overall. Also, you don't just have to outlet the ball to Nash if they have a defender glued to him to slow down our break (which is what they'll do, full court pressure on Nash), get that ball to LB or Marion or Bell. The breaks won't run as smoothly with them handling the ball, but it'll make the Spurs run a lot more and push the tempo of the game.

at the same time, the Spurs are the best at stealing our outlet passes of any team ive seen

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Having a lead late in the game against the Spurs doesn't mean anything. They know that they can turn up their defense in crunch time and hit a few big shots, so they fully expect to win if the deficit is only 7 or 8 points.

The Suns can play with the Spurs, but it's incorrect to say that they "almost" won games in which they blew a late lead. San Antonio does that to everyone, and it's by design. It's like a runner who drafts behind the lead guy for 95% of the race, then blows by him on the final kick.

you're exactly correct, and it's a mindset i'd like the suns to adopt. too often if we're trailing coming down the stretch we go into "mad bomber" mode where it's just 3 after 3 after 3.

what i'd like to see is the suns running on every possession. that doesn't mean fastbreaking, necessarily. it means running after every make or miss. they can pull it out if the opp is not right. the reason for this? as all the experts have said (and we've seen) the spurs always get back. that's fine. it means our scoring will likely go down. that's also fine. but what it also means is that the spurs, an older, less athletic, not extremely deep, and less in shape team that is also less familiar with the run, run, run attitude, will likely wear down over the course of the game and likely the series. will parker and floppy wear down? not likely. but you make the elsons, obertos, duncans, barrys, horrys, and finleys run, run, run, and i'll bet you some of 'em are gassed by the end of games and certainly at the end of a long series. if horry and finley lose their legs it makes 'em much easier to defend. so run suns, run. not always with the purpose of getting the quick or easy basket, but with the ulterior motive of setting the opponent up for the end. reverse drafting, if you will. force a pace which requires the spurs to push themselves and then see how the spurs handle being arm-weary (taking an example from boxing) at the end of games.

 

[azirish]

you're exactly correct, and it's a mindset i'd like the suns to adopt. too often if we're trailing coming down the stretch we go into "mad bomber" mode where it's just 3 after 3 after 3.

what i'd like to see is the suns running on every possession. that doesn't mean fastbreaking, necessarily. it means running after every make or miss. they can pull it out if the opp is not right. the reason for this? as all the experts have said (and we've seen) the spurs always get back. that's fine. it means our scoring will likely go down. that's also fine. but what it also means is that the spurs, an older, less athletic, not extremely deep, and less in shape team that is also less familiar with the run, run, run attitude, will likely wear down over the course of the game and likely the series. will parker and floppy wear down? not likely. but you make the elsons, obertos, duncans, barrys, horrys, and finleys run, run, run, and i'll bet you some of 'em are gassed by the end of games and certainly at the end of a long series. if horry and finley lose their legs it makes 'em much easier to defend. so run suns, run. not always with the purpose of getting the quick or easy basket, but with the ulterior motive of setting the opponent up for the end. reverse drafting, if you will. force a pace which requires the spurs to push themselves and then see how the spurs handle being arm-weary (taking an example from boxing) at the end of games.

Running to wear down Duncan is a real key. Their offense is as dependent on him as the Suns are on Amare, but Duncan does not like to run.

One critical factor in the play of Finley. It seems unlikely that both Finley and Manu will be on the floor at the same time very often. To do that would mean playing a very small lineup for the Spurs and eliminate any help for Duncan against Amare.

Finley is undoubtely the weak link of the Spurs defense. Swtiches to get him isolated on Barbosa could be a lot of fun. At the same time, the Suns will have to be totally focused on not doubling off him since he's been deadly at catch and shoot.