Getting the first pick

[Russ Smith]

If you look, it's really Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit and Cincy that are the problem.
We have the same record as Dallas but we play them and will lose, so we should finish ahead of them in the pick race. Same thing with Denver same record but we will lose to them. We play Carolina but they are 1-10 so they have to win at least twice for us to have a chance to get ahead(depending on tie breakers). Buffalo, Detroit and cincy all have 2 wins and do not play us so they have to win at least one more game each and again dependent on tiebreakers.

So it would appear to be VERY unlikely we're going to end up with the first pick.

What you have to hope for is we get a pick high enough that coupled with other picks we can entice the team with the first pick to trade. That means we need a team that has a QB they like, and is concerned about the finances of paying a QB the first pick money.

Seems like a longshot but I really think the best chance we have is to trade for that pick.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

If you look, it's really Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit and Cincy that are the problem.
We have the same record as Dallas but we play them and will lose, so we should finish ahead of them in the pick race. Same thing with Denver same record but we will lose to them. We play Carolina but they are 1-10 so they have to win at least twice for us to have a chance to get ahead(depending on tie breakers). Buffalo, Detroit and cincy all have 2 wins and do not play us so they have to win at least one more game each and again dependent on tiebreakers.

So it would appear to be VERY unlikely we're going to end up with the first pick.

What you have to hope for is we get a pick high enough that coupled with other picks we can entice the team with the first pick to trade. That means we need a team that has a QB they like, and is concerned about the finances of paying a QB the first pick money.

Seems like a longshot but I really think the best chance we have is to trade for that pick.

Detroit could just as easily be around .500 with the way that they are playing. Many heartbreaks. Cincy the same. 6 of their 8 losses have been within 1 possession. They are at least competitive with their losses. We just suck. Buffalo is the team to be worried about (even though they are playing competitive as well IMO) That kind of heartbreak (dropped TD in OT) can demoralize.

 

[CaptTurbo]

We will have the second pick. Plenty of good QB's coming out. Stay at 2.

 

[Mulli]

We will have the second pick. Plenty of good QB's coming out. Stay at 2.

Yep.

 

[conraddobler]

Our FO is going to be making the choice.

I agree with the poster who said we'll get the Blackledge of the group.

 

[john h]

We will have the second pick. Plenty of good QB's coming out. Stay at 2.

Never forget that our owner is not known for wanting to spend big $$$ on a first round pick. Who knows what his thoughts are. He might even trade down and go for a QB that is not even on our radar.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Never forget that our owner is not known for wanting to spend big $$$ on a first round pick. Who knows what his thoughts are. He might even trade down and go for a QB that is not even on our radar.

That is all going to be changed after the lockout and the rookie scale is put into place. The owners want it, the NFLPA wants it too. They just need to negotiate the length and money involved. Probably the easiest part of the CBA negotiations IMO.

 

[az jam]

We will get probably the 3rd, 4th or 5th pick. They won't trade up. QB Luck won't be there but lots of other good players. Its time to start really working on the draft as the season is over for the Cards.

 

[Zeno]

Going in to the season the AZ Cardinals had the easiest schedule based on last years records and that is the first tie breaker. I am not sure where we are on strength of schedule atthis point in the season but I don't see it being much different (with the west sucking again). If the season ended right now we would be the worst 3 win team and pick fifth behind Carolina, Buffalo, Detroit & Cincy...ahead of all the other 3 win teams, if we don't win another game and Buff, Det & Cincy win one and Carolina wins 2 we will pick #1 overall.

 

[chickenhead]

This week's games:

Buffalo (2-9) @ Minnesota
Picking Minnesota but I think Buffalo could win this game. They've come heartbreakingly close, and while this last loss could be demoralizing, it could also be motivating. Possible trap game for MIN.

Chicago @ Detroit (2-9)
Picking Chicago but I think Detroit could win this game for similar reasons as above.

Denver (3-8) @ Kansas City
Nothing is predicatble in the AFC West, but Arrowhead is as reliable as it gets in that division. I think KC wins.

New Orleans @ Cincinnati (2-9)
I think the Saints are too strong for the Bengals.

Dallas (3-8) @ Indianapolis
Could be closer than it looks. Indy at home looks like a lock but Manning is playing without a lot of weapons. Depends on which Dallas team shows up.

St. Louis @ Arizona (3-8)
The Rams look like the better team and the Cards look absolutely heartless and directionless. Therefore, the Cards probably win by 17 points.

 

[cgolden]

Detroit could just as easily be around .500 with the way that they are playing. Many heartbreaks. Cincy the same. 6 of their 8 losses have been within 1 possession. They are at least competitive with their losses. We just suck. Buffalo is the team to be worried about (even though they are playing competitive as well IMO) That kind of heartbreak (dropped TD in OT) can demoralize.

Hasn't Buffalo lost multiple games in OT this season? They've played much better since Fitzpatrick took over.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Hasn't Buffalo lost multiple games in OT this season? They've played much better since Fitzpatrick took over.

They have. I just think that the drop is going to demoralize them. If they are mentally stronger than we are, (which they have to be) they have a chance to win more.

 

[Black Jesus]

Superbowl to #1 overall pick in two seasons.. Has that ever happened before?

 

[kerouac9]

That is all going to be changed after the lockout and the rookie scale is put into place. The owners want it, the NFLPA wants it too. They just need to negotiate the length and money involved. Probably the easiest part of the CBA negotiations IMO.

Funny how you disappeared on the last thread that I refuted this nonsense on.

There is no validity or factual basis for any of this.

 

[football karma]

Superbowl to #1 overall pick in two seasons.. Has that ever happened before?

Raiders? If not #1, they came awfully close

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Funny how you disappeared on the last thread that I refuted this nonsense on.

There is no validity or factual basis for any of this.

I disappeared? I never looked backed on it.

This is my OPINION. We don't have to state fact or opinion in every post. Jesus H man, lighten up.

 

[kerouac9]

I disappeared? I never looked backed on it.

This is my OPINION. We don't have to state fact or opinion in every post. Jesus H man, lighten up.

Stating that the NFLPA wants a rookie scale is a factual statement. It is just a factual statement that has no bearing on the reality of the situation.

 

[Mulli]

Stating that the NFLPA wants a rookie scale is a factual statement. It is just a factual statement that has no bearing on the reality of the situation.

who cares

 

[Cheesebeef]

we have to hope the Lions get the first pick and that we then do what we NEVER do and make them an offer they can't refuse with our number 1 this year and next and deal for the pick. They're not done with the kid from Georgia yet and they're the only team worse than us who could end up there. That being said, Rod Graves ******** will NEVER be able to make that trade, so why bother caring.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Stating that the NFLPA wants a rookie scale is a factual statement. It is just a factual statement that has no bearing on the reality of the situation.

I'm not going over fact vs. opinion with you. Unreal.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

we have to hope the Lions get the first pick and that we then do what we NEVER do and make them an offer they can't refuse with our number 1 this year and next and deal for the pick. They're not done with the kid from Georgia yet and they're the only team worse than us who could end up there. That being said, Rod Graves ******** will NEVER be able to make that trade, so why bother caring.

They just drafted Stafford. They wouldn't want Luck anyway IMO. They sure as hell would be taking offers and we'd better outbid Buffalo, Cincinnati, possibly Carolina, and even dark horse teams like SF for the pick.

 

[NJCardFan]

Raiders? If not #1, they came awfully close

In 2002 the Raiders went to the Super Bowl. The very next year, they went 4-12 and drafted #2 in the 2004 so we haven't fallen off that quickly. Close though.

As for our drafting position and the other teams with similar records, we first need to take a look at those teams:

Carolina Panthers: 1-10
Buffalo Bills: 2-9
Detroit Lions: 2-9
Cincinnati Bengals: 2-9
Arizona Cardinals: 3-8
Dallas Cowboys: 3-8
Denver Broncos: 3-8
Cleveland Browns: 4-7
Minnesota Vikings: 4-7
San Francisco 49ers: 4-7

Now, looking at these teams 10 teams at the bottom of the leagues standings, which are in need, right now, of a QB? Let's take a look:

Panthers-Matt Moore, at least this season, has fallen off, however, they drafted Claussen in the 2nd round last draft, a steal by most accounts. So, whether or not they're willing to go for a QB at the #1 slot remains to be seen especially considering the amount of holes they have at places like offensive line(3rd in the league in sacks surrendered), and at WR. They might actually end up trading down. They do play us this season and if they beat us and win another game, as long as we lose out, we will draft ahead of them.

Bills-Intriguing to say the least. Fitzpatrick looks to be the real deal and they have a good RB in Jackson. Their weakness is at WR and TE. Their OL isn't half bad. In fact, offense really isn't their main problem. DB and LB seems to be weaknesses in Buffalo. I don't see them taking a QB in the first round. As for their draft position, they have winnable games against the Vikings and Browns and maybe Miami so they might end up 4-12.

Lions-They took Stafford #1 in 2009 so no QB in their future.

Bengals-Another team with a lot of holes but QB just might be one of them. Even though Palmer isn't having that bad a season but he hasn't been the same since his knee injury anyway so I see them taking a QB.

Cardinals-Duh.

Cowboys-I don't see a QB here unless they want to cut ties with Romo, which I don't see. This is the same team that won the east last year. They just folded up under Phillips. They should finish ahead of us.

Broncos-Another team I think will want a QB. But will finish ahead of us so I don't see them sniping us out of anything.

Browns-McCoy is playing well so I don't see them taking a QB.

Vikings-Definitely need a QB. But they'll finish ahead of us.

49ers-They also need a QB and will finish ahead of us.

All of this said, I see us drafting no worse than #3 but as I said in another thread, we'll probably screw that up by either taking a DB or something, trading the pick away, or taking the QB that ends up being the Todd Blackledge of the bunch.

 

[football karma]

Now, looking at these teams 10 teams at the bottom of the leagues standings, which are in need, right now, of a QB? Let's take a look:

Panthers-Matt Moore, at least this season, has fallen off, however, they drafted Claussen in the 2nd round last draft, a steal by most accounts. So, whether or not they're willing to go for a QB at the #1 slot remains to be seen especially considering the amount of holes they have at places like offensive line(3rd in the league in sacks surrendered), and at WR. They might actually end up trading down. They do play us this season and if they beat us and win another game, as long as we lose out, we will draft ahead of them.

Bills-Intriguing to say the least. Fitzpatrick looks to be the real deal and they have a good RB in Jackson. Their weakness is at WR and TE. Their OL isn't half bad. In fact, offense really isn't their main problem. DB and LB seems to be weaknesses in Buffalo. I don't see them taking a QB in the first round. As for their draft position, they have winnable games against the Vikings and Browns and maybe Miami so they might end up 4-12.

Lions-They took Stafford #1 in 2009 so no QB in their future.

Bengals-Another team with a lot of holes but QB just might be one of them. Even though Palmer isn't having that bad a season but he hasn't been the same since his knee injury anyway so I see them taking a QB.

Cardinals-Duh.

Cowboys-I don't see a QB here unless they want to cut ties with Romo, which I don't see. This is the same team that won the east last year. They just folded up under Phillips. They should finish ahead of us.

Broncos-Another team I think will want a QB. But will finish ahead of us so I don't see them sniping us out of anything.

Browns-McCoy is playing well so I don't see them taking a QB.

Vikings-Definitely need a QB. But they'll finish ahead of us.

49ers-They also need a QB and will finish ahead of us.

All of this said, I see us drafting no worse than #3 but as I said in another thread, we'll probably screw that up by either taking a DB or something, trading the pick away, or taking the QB that ends up being the Todd Blackledge of the bunch.

Broncos took Tim Tebow this year -- I doubt that they take another QB. That being said -- their offense is good enough to score 2 tds, which is enough to beat the Cardinals at this point.

Curious about the Panthers and the Bengals. Both may be looking at new coaches and the new guy may want his own franchise QB to build around, regardless of incumbent -- be it a 2nd rd pick from a year ago or Carson Palmer.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Broncos took Tim Tebow this year -- I doubt that they take another QB. That being said -- their offense is good enough to score 1td, which is enough to beat the Cardinals at this point.

Curious about the Panthers and the Bengals. Both may be looking at new coaches and the new guy may want his own franchise QB to build around, regardless of incumbent -- be it a 2nd rd pick from a year ago or Carson Palmer.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Mulli]

Panthers are interesting in that they went back to Moore over Claussen.