Goran Dragic: Good or Bad Deal?

[ASUCHRIS]

I loved his attitude and his impact on the game early in the season but something has changed the chemistry out there. These guys really don't look like they like each other and there are a couple of people that appear to be playing for a contract elsewhere. This team hasn't exactly given up but they've stopped being a team IMO and I see no reason to believe they will come together at any time soon.

Seriously, other than Tucker and Scola, there isn't a player out there that isn't underachieving. That's a far cry from the first few weeks when they all seemed to be in each other's corner and despite some horrible performances by a couple of players they were competitive in each game.

Steve

Yep, it's just a hopeless and depressing bunch, with nothing to look forward to for the future. Tucker looks like the only guy out there who gives a ****.

There isn't one damn thing you can point to on the entire roster, and say look, at least we know this guy gives us hope. Even in the darkest days, (which were rare in the JC era) we always had a couple players to hang your hat on.

It's not possible that I could have any more contempt for ownership and the front office. They are both completely clueless.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

Isn't Dragic's deal a flat $7.5m salary with a potential annual bonus of $8.5m? In today's NBA, that's a killer deal. At his current production (which is at least average if not top third), is he even slated for his bonus? I mean, I've probably watched 15 minutes worth of Suns ball this year, so I don't know.

And with time factoring of money, his deal gets better and better as it ages.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

It's $7.5M per, and there are no raises, so in NBA money he'll be making less every year.

Besides, there is no chance whatsoever of the Suns landing three max players before Dragic's contract is up. It would be a miracle if even one max FA signed, given how bad the Suns' outlook is, so that leaves the draft. A franchise player drafted next summer won't get his big raise until 2017, long after Dragic's current deal ends.

Dragic isn't interfering with the Suns' long-term future in any way, unless you say that maybe he's responsible for a couple more wins per season, which hurts their draft position.



For the record, I had lower expectations for Dragic than almost anyone, and went on and on about how I hated the signing. Then when the real numbers came out, it wasn't so bad as first reported, so I toned it down a bit. But I expected erratic mediocrity, and that's what we have.

Oops. I see that this was addressed....

 

[SunsTzu]

Oops. I see that this was addressed....

In fairness he does have a bonus in his contract that he will almost certainly never see. He has an All-Star bonus of 1 million dollars. Since the All-Star game has a lot to do with marketability it's extremely unlikely he'll ever make it even if he plays at a level that warrants it.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I loved his attitude and his impact on the game early in the season but something has changed the chemistry out there. These guys really don't look like they like each other and there are a couple of people that appear to be playing for a contract elsewhere. This team hasn't exactly given up but they've stopped being a team IMO and I see no reason to believe they will come together at any time soon.

Seriously, other than Tucker and Scola, there isn't a player out there that isn't underachieving. That's a far cry from the first few weeks when they all seemed to be in each other's corner and despite some horrible performances by a couple of players they were competitive in each game.

Steve

Not sure that I would say that it's about liking each other or not, but losing is never fun and they are doing a lot of it.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Not sure that I would say that it's about liking each other or not, but losing is never fun and they are doing a lot of it.

"Losing is a disease, as contagious as polio. Losing is a disease, as contagious as syphilis. Losing is a disease, as contagious as Bubonic Plague. Attacking one, but affecting all. But, curable."

I'm not sure ours is curable though.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

Actually Bubonic Plague is not contagious - its transmitted by vector - a mosquito, I think - from rodents to humans. Lucky for us its not because its endemic in the Southwest in wild rodent populations and we get a case every ten years or so. (Hate to rain on your metaphor.)

 

[AzStevenCal]

Actually Bubonic Plague is not contagious - its transmitted by vector - a mosquito, I think - from rodents to humans. Lucky for us its not because its endemic in the Southwest in wild rodent populations and we get a case every ten years or so. (Hate to rain on your metaphor.)

It was a quote from The Natural (although I might have screwed up the diseases, I'll have to check).

Steve

 

[BC867]

If you go back you will find that almost everyone expected more than 14/6 with poor defense. 18/8 and good defense were mentioned most often.

Quite true. But spoken in the past tense.

Now that we have seen the team, 14/6 on a dysfunctional team is pretty even with 18/8 on a well balanced team. A difference of 4 points and 2 assists over, what, 36 minutes?

Is it his shortcoming or the lack of a go-to leader alongside him at the other Guard position? Dragic is not the guy to blame.

Just as AzStevenCal has been saying, the failure of Beasley has affected more than just one position.

 

[Errntknght]

I've noticed lately that not only do our subs appear to be killing us, the first unit is usually ahead on +/- versus the other teams first unit. It could well be that happens because the other teams first unit doesn't go all out against us, feeling like they're going to win the game anyway but it does make you think. Then their subs run roughshod over ours to prove they're right. I really can't imagine that Dragic, Dudley, Tucker, Scola and Gortat can hang with most all of the starting units around the league but they seem to keep on doing it...

 

[AzStevenCal]

I've noticed lately that not only do our subs appear to be killing us, the first unit is usually ahead on +/- versus the other teams first unit. It could well be that happens because the other teams first unit doesn't go all out against us, feeling like they're going to win the game anyway but it does make you think. Then their subs run roughshod over ours to prove they're right. I really can't imagine that Dragic, Dudley, Tucker, Scola and Gortat can hang with most all of the starting units around the league but they seem to keep on doing it...

I think it's been like this ever since Beasley was removed from the starting lineup. Now, unfortunately, our problems have grown well beyond the Beasley issue. We appear to have several very unhappy players and it's remarkable that the first group is still playing fairly well together given the apparent lack of chemistry. Even there though, you can see the obvious discord. As for the bench, I think Brown has gone something like 2 for 25 from three point land.

Steve

 

[Phrazbit]

I've noticed lately that not only do our subs appear to be killing us, the first unit is usually ahead on +/- versus the other teams first unit. It could well be that happens because the other teams first unit doesn't go all out against us, feeling like they're going to win the game anyway but it does make you think. Then their subs run roughshod over ours to prove they're right. I really can't imagine that Dragic, Dudley, Tucker, Scola and Gortat can hang with most all of the starting units around the league but they seem to keep on doing it...

Dudley and Tucker carried our 2nd unit for a long time there... theyre both starting now. Its as simple as that.

Oh, and the Sleaze factor. How about him tonight? -10 in only 5 minutes! At least he was so bad that he made the suffering brief. If I was an opposing fan I would give a standing ovation every time he subs into the game.

 

[slinslin]

Just recently saw a thread on realgm general board by non-suns fan asking if Dragic was the worst FA signing of the year.

Obviously it is not the case, hello Jeff Green you got that award locked up even Landry Fields can't compete with that.

But yeah shows you how average Dragic has played, I'd say he is barely earning that contract now.

Greivis Vasquez is outplaying him big time.

 

[elindholm]

Dragic is outplaying Lin, anyway.

 

[Covert Rain]

Don't you have to factor in expectations as part of the evaluation if something was a good or bad signing? I don't recall hearing very many people say he was going to be an all-star or the next Nash. I thought we were paying for a competent PG. I think we are getting that.

Knowing the expectations that I heard from most.... to even suggest he is one of the worst FA signings in the NBA is ridiculous. Maybe people outside the organization and fan base were thinking he was signed to become the next Nash. If so, that perception is on them.

 

[BC867]

Don't you have to factor in expectations as part of the evaluation if something was a good or bad signing? I don't recall hearing very many people say he was going to be an all-star or the next Nash. I thought we were paying for a competent PG. I think we are getting that.

Knowing the expectations that I heard from most.... to even suggest he is one of the worst FA signings in the NBA is ridiculous. Maybe people outside the organization and fan base were thinking he was signed to become the next Nash. If so, that perception is on them.

In this age of instant gratification, people forget that Steve Nash took years to become the "next Nash".

 

[HooverDam]

Goran Dragic is probably the worst Suns starting PG in 25 years, but thats not saying he's terrible, the Suns have had insanely good PG play.

I think the contract is fine. Its hard to rack up those assist numbers when you've got no one to toss the ball to in P&R situations.

Dragic is unlikely to ever make an All Star game, especially considering the quality of PGs in the league currently. But that doesn't mean he can't be a starter on a good/great team.

 

[Budden]

Just recently saw a thread on realgm general board by non-suns fan asking if Dragic was the worst FA signing of the year.

Obviously it is not the case, hello Jeff Green you got that award locked up even Landry Fields can't compete with that.

But yeah shows you how average Dragic has played, I'd say he is barely earning that contract now.

Greivis Vasquez is outplaying him big time.

That shows nothing. It's extremely difficult to evaluate a player without watching him play consistently, and we have laws in this country that protect people from having to suffer through watching successive Suns games (or at least we should..) I assume this is why the Suns FO has moved toward a statistics based talent evaluation system - computers don't feel the pain, boredom and nausea that humans experience when exposed to Suns games, even at extremely limited doses.

Think about all the times we have all been in favor of a trade or free agent signing, only to notice all the little things that we never knew about once the transaction occurs. With second tier players or below, whose play varies from game to game or week to week, people get very skewed impressions of player quality because they base it on the once or twice they watch the player play against their favorite team and the other stuff they catch in the media (i.e. other people's opinions, which aren't much better than their own).

 

[AzStevenCal]

That shows nothing. It's extremely difficult to evaluate a player without watching him play consistently, and we have laws in this country that protect people from having to suffer through watching successive Suns games (or at least we should..) I assume this is why the Suns FO has moved toward a statistics based talent evaluation system - computers don't feel the pain, boredom and nausea that humans experience when exposed to Suns games, even at extremely limited doses.

Think about all the times we have all been in favor of a trade or free agent signing, only to notice all the little things that we never knew about once the transaction occurs. With second tier players or below, whose play varies from game to game or week to week, people get very skewed impressions of player quality because they base it on the once or twice they watch the player play against their favorite team and the other stuff they catch in the media (i.e. other people's opinions, which aren't much better than their own).

Nice post.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

I don't know which is scarier with this FO, using statistics or not using them to evaluate players...

 

[Budden]

I don't know which is scarier with this FO, using statistics or not using them to evaluate players...

Probably using statistics. People forget (or more likely, never even recognized) that in the Moneyball case, the A's didn't just use statistics to evaluate players, they used them to build a team IN CONJUNCTION with playing to the statistical strengths on the field. This meant routinely walking players, bunting, and other terribly boring baseball stuff. Obviously, baseball lends itself much more to assembling an entire team using stats, but even if it didn't, the fact that the GM is the coach of the baseball team means its much easier to integrate personnel decisions with style-of-play decisions. This might go as far as throwing a particular pitch to a certain player, because that pitch tends to come off the bat in a way that the is easier for the first-baseman to handle - or it might keep the ball away from the first baseman entirely, so that it can be fielded by someone who tends to be good at fielding the ball and delivering it to the second baseman, in essence hiding the first baseman in certain instances where it is statistically beneficial to do so. The Suns have actually proven quite adept at doing this in one instance - they sign players who suck, and then the coach keeps those players on the bench. Otherwise, I don't see it.

The biggest issue with statistics-based scouting in basketball is that no one has done it before. I don't really believe that the Suns have the brains to even copy a system that another team has devised, but even that scenario does not yet exist. The idea that this team has the ingenuity to come up with an innovative system that no one else has been able to capture is, as I think we'd all agree, far-fetched. If you're looking for some stats to back it up, I think NBA.com has the team's winning percentage since Steve Kerr left somewhere in the "Schedule & Standings" section.

 

[Errntknght]

We don't even know what the FO meant when they said they planned to use statistics - heck it could mean they planned to start reading the box-scores.

 

[Phrazbit]

There are plenty of teams that use analytics in their scouting, but the Suns (no matter what they claim) clearly are not one of them. Just about every move we made this offseason flew in face of what an analytic assessment would target, and any team that uses those types of stats would have avoided Beasley at all costs.

 

[hcsilla]

We don't even know what the FO meant when they said they planned to use statistics - heck it could mean they planned to start reading the box-scores.

 

[AzStevenCal]

We don't even know what the FO meant when they said they planned to use statistics - heck it could mean they planned to start reading the box-scores.

LOL.

Steve